Meanwhile, back at the polls... [Archive]

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c1ue

09-16-08, 11:52 AM

Palin is making an impact.

McCain now technically ahead in the electoral vote.

<TABLE align=center border=1><TBODY><TR><TD>Candidate</TD><TD>FL</TD><TD>PA</TD><TD>OH</TD><TD>OH</TD><TD>NJ</TD></TR><TR><TD>Pollster</TD><TD>Rass</TD><TD>Rass</TD><TD>Rass</TD><TD>SUSA</TD><TD>Qpac</TD></TR><TR><TD>Date</TD><TD>9/14</TD><TD>9/14</TD><TD>9/14</TD><TD>9/12-14</TD><TD>9/10-14</TD></TR><TR><TD>Barack Obama (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/Barack-Obama.html)</TD><TD>44%</TD><TD>47%</TD><TD>45%</TD><TD>45%</TD><TD>48%</TD></TR><TR><TD>John McCain (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/candidates/John-McCain.html)</TD><TD>49%</TD><TD>47%</TD><TD>48%</TD><TD>49%</TD><TD>45%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE border=1><TBODY><TR><TD>Method</TD><TD>Obama</TD><TD>McCain</TD></TR><TR><TD>Latest Poll Per State (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/general-election/electoral-college-results.html)</TD><TD>238</TD><TD>266</TD></TR><TR><TD>Poll of Polls (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/general-election/poll-of-polls-average.html)</TD><TD>270</TD><TD>265</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 border=1><TBODY><TR class=Mnu><TD>State</TD><TD>#EV</TD><TD>Mid-Date</TD><TD>Barack Obama</TD><TD>John McCain</TD></TR><TR><TD>California (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/california.html)</TD><TD>55</TD><TD>8/16/08 </TD><TD>51.0</TD><TD>37.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Texas (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/texas.html)</TD><TD>34</TD><TD>7/30/08 </TD><TD>41.0</TD><TD>50.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>New York (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/new-york.html)</TD><TD>31</TD><TD>9/9/08 </TD><TD>46.0</TD><TD>41.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Florida (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/florida.html)</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>9/14/08 </TD><TD>44.0</TD><TD>49.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Illinois (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/illinois.html)</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>8/12/08 </TD><TD>53.0</TD><TD>38.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Pennsylvania (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/pennsylvania.html)</TD><TD>21</TD><TD>9/14/08 </TD><TD>47.0</TD><TD>47.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Ohio (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/ohio.html)</TD><TD>20</TD><TD>9/14/08 </TD><TD>45.0</TD><TD>48.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Michigan (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/michigan.html)</TD><TD>17</TD><TD>9/10/08 </TD><TD>51.0</TD><TD>46.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Georgia (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/georgia.html)</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>9/10/08 </TD><TD>38.0</TD><TD>56.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>New Jersey (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/new-jersey.html)</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>9/12/08 </TD><TD>48.0</TD><TD>45.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>North Carolina (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/north-carolina.html)</TD><TD>15</TD><TD>9/9/08 </TD><TD>44.0</TD><TD>48.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Virginia (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/virginia.html)</TD><TD>13</TD><TD>9/14/08 </TD><TD>48.0</TD><TD>48.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Massachusetts (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/massachusetts.html)</TD><TD>12</TD><TD>8/5/08 </TD><TD>51.0</TD><TD>36.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Indiana (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/indiana.html)</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>8/30/08 </TD><TD>43.0</TD><TD>45.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Missouri (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/missouri.html)</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>9/11/08 </TD><TD>46.0</TD><TD>51.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Tennessee (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/tennessee.html)</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>8/20/08 </TD><TD>32.0</TD><TD>56.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Washington (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/washington.html)</TD><TD>11</TD><TD>9/10/08 </TD><TD>49.0</TD><TD>47.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Arizona (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/arizona.html)</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>8/15/08 </TD><TD>30.0</TD><TD>40.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Maryland (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/maryland.html)</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>9/2/08 </TD><TD>52.0</TD><TD>38.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Minnesota (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/minnesota.html)</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>9/11/08 </TD><TD>49.0</TD><TD>47.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Wisconsin (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/wisconsin.html)</TD><TD>10</TD><TD>9/6/08 </TD><TD>46.0</TD><TD>43.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Alabama (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/alabama.html)</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>6/26/020 </TD><TD>36.0</TD><TD>51.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Colorado (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/colorado.html)</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>9/14/08 </TD><TD>46.0</TD><TD>48.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Louisiana (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/louisiana.html)</TD><TD>9</TD><TD>8/17/08 </TD><TD>38.0</TD><TD>55.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Kentucky (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/kentucky.html)</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>8/10/08 </TD><TD>37.0</TD><TD>55.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>South Carolina (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/south-carolina.html)</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>7/23/08 </TD><TD>40.0</TD><TD>53.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Connecticut (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/connecticut.html)</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>7/31/08 </TD><TD>51.0</TD><TD>36.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Iowa (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/iowa.html)</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>9/10/08 </TD><TD>49.0</TD><TD>46.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Oklahoma (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/oklahoma.html)</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>9/6/08 </TD><TD>32.0</TD><TD>65.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Oregon (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/oregon.html)</TD><TD>7</TD><TD>8/7/08 </TD><TD>47.0</TD><TD>37.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Arkansas (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/arkansas.html)</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>7/17/08 </TD><TD>37.0</TD><TD>47.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Kansas (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/kansas.html)</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>8/19/08 </TD><TD>35.0</TD><TD>58.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Mississippi (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/mississippi.html)</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>9/9/08 </TD><TD>39.0</TD><TD>52.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Nebraska (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/nebraska.html)</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>7/28/08 </TD><TD>32.0</TD><TD>50.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>New Mexico (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/new-mexico.html)</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>9/8/08 </TD><TD>47.0</TD><TD>49.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Nevada (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/nevada.html)</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>9/11/08 </TD><TD>46.0</TD><TD>49.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Utah (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/utah.html)</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>9/10/08 </TD><TD>24.0</TD><TD>62.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>West Virginia (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/west-virginia.html)</TD><TD>5</TD><TD>9/7/08 </TD><TD>39.0</TD><TD>44.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Hawaii (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/hawaii.html)</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>3/6/08 </TD><TD>61.0</TD><TD>31.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Idaho (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/idaho.html)</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>9/9/08 </TD><TD>29.0</TD><TD>68.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Maine (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/maine.html)</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>9/9/08 </TD><TD>52.0</TD><TD>38.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>New Hampshire (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/new-hampshire.html)</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>9/8/08 </TD><TD>51.0</TD><TD>45.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Rhode Island (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/rhode-island.html)</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>8/19/08 </TD><TD>51.0</TD><TD>30.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Alaska (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/alaska.html)</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>9/9/08 </TD><TD>29.0</TD><TD>68.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Delaware (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/delaware.html)</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>9/13/08 </TD><TD>55.0</TD><TD>43.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>South Dakota (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/south-dakota.html)</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>7/9/08 </TD><TD>40.0</TD><TD>44.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Montana (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/montana.html)</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>9/8/08 </TD><TD>42.0</TD><TD>53.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>North Dakota (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/north-dakota.html)</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>9/8/08 </TD><TD>41.0</TD><TD>55.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Vermont (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/vermont.html)</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>3/6/08 </TD><TD>63.0</TD><TD>29.0</TD></TR><TR><TD>Wyoming (http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/wyoming.html)</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>9/10/08 </TD><TD>39.0</TD><TD>58.0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/

we_are_toast

09-16-08, 12:07 PM

Some of these results look like averages of polls that go back to July. Anything more than a week old is too old. The Palin free ride is over, and the press is really getting annoyed at the outright lies McCain and Palin are telling. Look for the polls to start leaning toward Obama in the next couple of weeks.

we_are_toast

09-18-08, 07:58 AM

I was wrong, it only took a few days for the public to see how incompetent and dishonest McCain/Palin are;

RealClearPolitics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/)

Look for McCain to get really flustered on Economic questions at the debates and make every effort to completely dodge them. The press is so embarrassed by how dishonest the McCain campaign is, (even Karl Rove can't believe it) to show they have even a speck of respect left they'll have to jump all over every McCain dodge and false statement.

babbittd

09-18-08, 09:24 AM

Look for McCain to get really flustered on Economic questions at the debates and make every effort to completely dodge them.

This is also what I expect. McCain to both deliver a message that a majority of voters don't want to hear and to deliver it poorly as compared to Obama (in terms of public speaking ability).

we_are_toast

09-22-08, 01:05 PM

I went to the NYT website where they list the states and you pick the states that you think each candidate will win, then they give you the electoral count. When I did it, it came out as a tie 269-269. Then I got to thinking about the ramifications of a tie election in the midsts of a world economic crisis. How many states would go through recounts? How many court challenges? And then the Supreme Court appoints John McBush.

Then I realized Obama not only has to get to 270, he needs a comfortable cushion. All McBush has to do is challenge any state that he looses by less than 1% (and there will be several) and when it gets to the Supreme Court, they'll hand it to him.

Just when you thought it couldn't get any worse. :eek:

c1ue

09-23-08, 10:05 PM

Its worse than that.

Several polling web sites have been commenting how results from polls seem to be diverging depending on whether the polls are computer/telephone vs. interview based.

Specifically that Obama's support seems higher when the polls are conducted face to face - the implication being that racism is much harder when you're doing it in front of someone vs. an anonymous vote situation.

I hope that this is a coincidence.

I'm at the point where it is impossible to determine which is the lesser of 2 evils: The well known Keating 5 participant who hypothetically has nothing more to gain in his career and is clearly too old already - therefore might truly break the mold, or the unknown who has been pragmatically playing his political stance, accepting big money from the usual suspects, but talks the good talk. Looking at the backups, it is just as bad: it is like flipping the main candidates around then switching extremist sides. Ugh.

But I'd hate for the one chosen to be due to racism.

babbittd

09-25-08, 10:14 AM

I would love to meet some undecided voters. What do they do for a living and where do they get their information from and how is that they haven't already decided on a pick? Election coverage is 24/7 and the campaigns have been running for twenty months!

Does anyone on this forum know Americans that will definitely vote and that are undecided as of now?

I haven't encountered any yet, but live in an area with relatively few people around and haven't traveled much this year.

c1ue

09-25-08, 12:50 PM

A number of the more thoughtful people I know are undecided, because the choice is between an unknown who will have full Congressional party support, and a known lackey of the lobbyists who won't.

The problem is that McCain is so much like Bush in his complete lack of personal engagement and carrythrough that even a divided government will be dangerous.

babbittd

09-25-08, 08:46 PM

I'd be very curious to hear along the way, whether it is people I meet, reports from others or in the media, on what did folks that were undecided as of today base their eventual decision on.

we_are_toast

09-26-08, 07:49 AM

A number of the more thoughtful people I know are undecided, because the choice is between an unknown who will have full Congressional party support, and a known lackey of the lobbyists who won't.

Excuse me but, BULLSHIT! Anyone who is undecided at this point between 2 people who have radically different voting records and philosophies is either and idiot or more likely, just plain lazy! Anyone who is undecided needs to get on the internet and spend 2 hours researching the records and philosophies of these guys. There are a gazillion web sites that compare the records.

If your undecided come election day, STAY HOME! An uninformed voter who votes because of TV ads is a bigger threat to our democracy than not voting at all. That's why negative, lying ads work. Voters have failed in their responsibility to be INFORMED citizens. Get informed! Get active! Then go vote!

phirang

09-26-08, 09:49 AM

c1ue

09-26-08, 11:51 AM

Excuse me but, BULLSHIT! Anyone who is undecided at this point between 2 people who have radically different voting records and philosophies is either and idiot or more likely, just plain lazy! Anyone who is undecided needs to get on the internet and spend 2 hours researching the records and philosophies of these guys. There are a gazillion web sites that compare the records.

If your undecided come election day, STAY HOME! An uninformed voter who votes because of TV ads is a bigger threat to our democracy than not voting at all. That's why negative, lying ads work. Voters have failed in their responsibility to be INFORMED citizens. Get informed! Get active! Then go vote!

Sorry, but you're not seeming to get it.

The choices are not strictly just between the two figurehead candidates.

It is the principle of divided government vs. the odiousness of McCain.

Obama actually has little to do with it for these people.

Bush almost certainly could not have done as much damage as he did with a Democratic congress in both terms. It was probably Clinton's secret success factor.

The whole principle of the divided government is that only the absolutely most important things get passed. Everything else gets tied up in political maneuvering until time runs out.

babbittd

10-30-08, 01:42 AM

Bush won the "early vote" in 2000 and 2004.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 47%. This is the first time McCain has been within three points of Obama in more than a month and the first time his support has topped 46% since September 24th.

[..]

Among those who have already voted, it’s Obama 54% McCain 45% with other candidates picking up a single percentage point.

[..]

For polling data released during the week of October 26 to November 1, 2008, the partisan weighting targets used by Rasmussen Reports will be 40.0% Democratic, 32.8% Republican, and 27.2% unaffiliated.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iXAkBilVhjbpsgAAHfgp6kGEShvwD944BQP84

Florida: About 2.6 million people have already voted in a state where absentee ballots overwhelmingly favored President Bush in the razor-thin 2000 election. Among those voting so far this year, 45 percent are registered Democrats and 39 percent Republicans.

North Carolina: About 1.6 million people have already voted — 54 percent are registered Democrats and 29 percent are Republicans. About 100,000 newly registered voters have signed up and voted at North Carolina's one-stop voting centers, McDonald said. Among them, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by about 2-1, he said.

Iowa: About 340,000 people have already voted — 49 percent are registered Democrats and 29 percent are Republicans.

Colorado: About 815,000 people have voted — 39 percent are registered Democrats and 37 percent are Republicans.

Nevada: About 342,000 people have already voted in Clark and Washoe Counties, which contain nearly 90 percent of the state's population. Among those voters, 53 percent are registered Democrats and 30 percent are Republicans.

New Mexico: About 111,000 people have voted in Bernalillo County, the state's largest. Among them, 55 percent are registered Democrats and 33 percent are Republicans.

Georgia: Black voters make up about 35 percent of those who have already voted — a big increase from the 2004 election, when 25 percent of the state's electorate was black. Blacks voted for Obama by ratio of 9-1 in Georgia's Democratic primary this year.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/us/politics/30early.html

In 2004, 22 percent of voters cast an early presidential ballot, and the number is expected to climb to 30 percent to 35 percent this year. “We have predicted a third of the electorate; I expect that we will meet that,” said James Hicks, research director at the Early Voting Information Center at Reed College in Portland, Ore.

For those thinking about the results, it is important to note that the independents in some of those states cited above probably tend to vote Republican.

babbittd

10-30-08, 01:56 AM

No-Excuse Absentee and Early Voting During the 2000 and 2004 Elections: Results from the National Annenberg Election Survey

http://www.allacademic.com//meta/p_mla_apa_research_citation/0/4/1/4/7/pages41477/p41477-8.php

In 2000, only 2.8 percent of blacks in the overall sample said that they had voted early compared to 15.8 percent of whites—a difference of 13 percent. By 2004, this difference had decreased to 5 percent.

[..]

In our two-week post-election sample in 2000, of those U.S. voters who said they had voted on Election Day, 50.8 percent said they voted for Bush, while 49.2 percent said they voted for Gore. Among early voters, however, 62.2 percent reported voting for Bush compared to 37.8 percent who voted for Gore. Comparable percentages appeared when the 2000 sample was restricted to those living in the no excuse absentee and early voting states. Similarly, in 2004, those casting their ballots before Election Day were more inclined to vote for Bush over Kerry. While 51.8 percent of Election Day voters supported Bush, 60.4 percent of early voters supported him. Within the 2004 no excuse absentee and early voting states sample, similar findings were reached
.