are you ready for huge upswing in the gold market???

[grapejelly]

Contraryinvestor.com had an amazing chart but since it is so far as I know in the subscribers-only section, I won't reprint it here. I will quote from Brian's comment though, regarding a chart of the CRB two month rate of change over several decades:


As we describe in the chart, never in the last half century have we seen a two month price decline as has been the case over the prior two month period ended last Friday. We came close in the early 1970's, but the current experience sets a new downside record over what is admittedly a very short space of time. In the spirit of honesty and integrity, this very tough two month price drop was indeed preceded a number of months back by two month price acceleration not witnessed since the mid 1970's.

The volatility here is almost unprecedented.

I say that gold and silver are going to experience some of the biggest upswings in price ever, both in percentage and dollar terms, over the next six or twelve months and maybe a lot sooner.

[BrianL]

Housing went through a great upwards run followed by a crash. By that logic, shouldn't we be jumping into the housing market?

While gold may be positioned to go up on fundamentals, I'd be pretty uneasy making a bet purely on the drop.

[Lukester]

I envy you your bullish "fire in the belly" here Grapejelly. I feel more cautious about the upside. I sense the action may be muted for a year or two, although we will likely have a decent bounce here. May your market call prevail Sir!

Contraryinvestor.com had an amazing chart but since it is so far as I know in the subscribers-only section, I won't reprint it here. I will quote from Brian's comment though, regarding a chart of the CRB two month rate of change over several decades: The volatility here is almost unprecedented. I say that gold and silver are going to experience some of the biggest upswings in price ever, both in percentage and dollar terms, over the next six or twelve months and maybe a lot sooner. [/font]

[grapejelly]

maybe today would be a good day for gold to go up a few bucks.

[metalman]

maybe today would be a good day for gold to go up a few bucks.

what, didn't you hear? deflation's here! going to 650 it is! sell your gold! http://www.itulip.com/images/bigsmileysfaceslap.gif

[$#*]

what, didn't you hear? deflation's here! going to 650 it is! sell your gold! http://www.itulip.com/images/bigsmileysfaceslap.gif

???

You can have very well deflation and a temporary increase in the spot prices of commodities or inflation and a temporary decrease in the spot prices of various commodities (including PM's).

Of course that can happen only if the inflation or deflation trend is induced by a rapid and substantial change in the composition of the liquidity pyramid.

In 1929 the fed could not compensate for the evaporation of derivative liquidity because .... well ... nobody can print gold bullion bars.

Now it's 2008, the gold standard is long time gone, and the Fed can pump as much power money in the system.
"Beeen! Print another tonne of treasuries! The market needs it. Paper from the nationalized F&F is also good if you are out of ink!":D

Do you need a more detailed explanation of the role played by ETN-like paper in this case ? :)

[Lukester]

maybe today would be a good day for gold to go up a few bucks.

Grapejelly - very impressive rally. But of course I was expecting that right along with you. My expectation for silver was a violent rally right back up to nudge the $16.00 level. But it stands a good chance of not breaking up past that major level and if it should fail there, it drops below the recent lows, which imply prices in silver immediately going to the $8 from the $10 level. These are stairstep moves and you can see such violent rallies as a quite routine part of a larger correction.

The violence of this rally is interesting for raising the possibility that it breaks out of this box, and back up through $16 within the next 6 months. If so, it's off to the races more likely than not.

Please understand, not only would I be delighted to be wrong, but I would also festoon you raging bulls with laurels (so to speak) and congratulate you on your correct call. I would really, really be very pleased to be proved an absolute idiot here in the intermediate term (1 year). More power to you Grape (and Metalman). If this is a real trend change with legs out of this correction, you two just name your price. What do you want - a case of cold boutique beer fed-exed to you? I'll do it!