What's holding the stock market up?

[helloworld]

This bull market from Oct. 2002 is unreal. It's 41 months old.

And it's heating up.

[blazespinnaker]

Not if you adjust for inflation, it looks kinda lame.

[WantsNewName]

Several of my subscriber sites have it that since M 3 is now hidden there is a LOT of liquidity being "pumped" into the market by the likes of J P Morgan, Citigroup, etc. to hold the market up for political and economic reasons. But, that that alone will not last if institutions do not follow through.

[EJ]

This bull market from Oct. 2002 is unreal. It's 41 months old.

And it's heating up.

Maybe it's starting to lose some steam?

[blazespinnaker]

http://home.earthlink.net/~intelligentbear/com-dj-infl.htm

[jeffolie]

Commodities.

I see a top here.

You out below.

[jeffolie]

HELIBEN WILL SHOW NO MERCY FOR HOUSING

In a speech to the Economic Club of New York this week, he said he would not let a faltering housing market deter him from the necessary action to wring inflation out of the system.

In other words, no mercy now, and no bail-out later, regardless of warnings.

[Jim Nickerson]

what is holding the stock market up?

Greater fools.

Jim

[EJ]

what is holding the stock market up?

Greater fools.

Jim

If only 17% are aware of the idea of the housing bubble...

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/30/business/yourmoney/30count.html

...can you imagine how few are aware of this?

http://www.itulip.com/realdow.htm

2% maybe?

My measure of success of a society is one where there is at least as much money to be made by providing education as by exploiting ignorance.

[BK]

Judging from the CASH flowing into the "No Child left Behind" effort, the subsidies that flow to our Universities, the incrediible cost of a Univeristy Education - ther is MONEY in Education.
In New Jersey - the State of New Jersey was paying some folks $295,000 - $350,000 per year to run the Dental School. You can bet that included a Pension. Billy Bulger of BOSTON-Mass infamy found his three years in Education to be very lucrative. Is Home in South Boston was so far away they even provide a $30,000/year Housing stipend.

All Public Teadhing positions at Public schools inclued a life time pension - if you do your time. Including subsidized health care for life (My parents were teachers, two grand parents, and two of my aunts).

THE US must have ONE Great Society!

I wonder how much the are paying the CEO 0f ETS - the NON Profit that greats all the standardize testing..... I'm sure he does the Job......FOR THE SAKE OF THE CHILDREN!

[Jim Nickerson]

EJ wrote:
My measure of success of a society is one where there is at least as much money to be made by providing education as by exploiting ignorance.:

An interesting measure of a successful society.

I opine that capitalism thrives on the ignorance of those from whom money is taken to those who take it, the capitalists.

If most (50.00001%) of the world's problems are ever to be solved, it will come about from greater education of the general population, and I think in the US less and less of this educational process is occurring.

The value of gaining education seems increasingly to be lost on those who grow up in affluence, though the affluent parents are often spending great sums to give their offspring everything.

Something has to ignite the desire to be educated in order to better one's lot.

Bush is not wrong in his emphasis (if it is real) on the value of educating Americans, whether or not any means undertaken to achieve better education will succeed certainly remains to be seen.

I think ignorance is going to get worse until something blatantly makes people re-focus their values.

Jim

[jeffolie]

What is holding up the stock market and the housing bubble is the flood of liquidity, money supply. A contraction in liquidity, credit from a housing bubble bust and the subsequent credit dominoes will collapse the stock market. We are also due for the cycle low that come in the 2nd year of the 4 year presidential cycle in the summer and fall.

[Jim Nickerson]

What is holding up the stock market and the housing bubble is the flood of liquidity, money supply. A contraction in liquidity, credit from a housing bubble bust and the subsequent credit dominoes will collapse the stock market. We are also due for the cycle low that come in the 2nd year of the 4 year presidential cycle in the summer and fall.



One potential problem with this projection of the 2nd yr. of presidential cycle low is that it seems to be common knowledge that the market will make a substantial low this years. If everybody knows it, I surmise it likely will not occur.

Jim

[BK]

Jim,
Financial Manias have existed for hundreds or years?? How much has been spent of Education in those hundred years? - A Lot! The Manias are still occurring? Huh.

I agree that education has many benefits - but, sometimes education is a poor allocation of resources.

Lets not forget that the US based University are their own kind of Big business. Lets not forget that the teachers Union are their own kind of Big Business. Neither of these businesses is concerned with a better life for my child or anyones child. These Organizations are concerned with getting your Money - no results required.
.
The tide of money spent on education doesn't life all boats equally.

A more explosive question - is IQ any different than athletic abilities?
Do all the readers of itulip have the potential to play pro baseball or to be a rocket scientist.

The Education Industry loves Governement subsidies as much as the Real Estate Industry or the Oil Industry.

As long as we perpetuate myths like "money spent on education is always well spent" - tax payers will be at the mercy of the Big Education Businesses.

[Jim Nickerson]

BK QUOTE:
Jim,
Financial Manias have existed for hundreds or years?? How much has been spent of Education in those hundred years? - A Lot! The Manias are still occurring? Huh.

I agree that education has many benefits - but, sometimes education is a poor allocation of resources.

Lets not forget that the US based University are their own kind of Big business. Lets not forget that the teachers Union are their own kind of Big Business. Neither of these businesses is concerned with a better life for my child or anyones child. These Organizations are concerned with getting your Money - no results required.
.
The tide of money spent on education doesn't life all boats equally.

A more explosive question - is IQ any different than athletic abilities?
Do all the readers of itulip have the potential to play pro baseball or to be a rocket scientist.

The Education Industry loves Governement subsidies as much as the Real Estate Industry or the Oil Industry.

As long as we perpetuate myths like money spent on education is always well spent - tax payers will be at the mercy of the Big Education Businesses.


Thanks, BK, good comments.

I would be happier were I less critical; however when I criticize, I attempt to think of what I would do, were I the King of the World.

First argument to your comments is: Are not manias a prime example of ignorance? If not pure ignorance, then at the least a serious lack of critical thinking, and generally critical thinking begins to come about with good education?

If one asks the question: how is the world to be a better place for those fortunate or unfortunate enough to come into being? To me there are two incipient answers. There needs to be worldwide population control so that the planet and society can at some point reasonably provide for the people here. In order to increase the probability that children will become productive citizens, then the only answer of which I can think, is that they need all the educational exposure that society can provide.

If there exists a position in our society for which the remuneration is woefully inadequate it is for everyday public school teachers. Teachers, or better Great Teachers, alone cannot guarantee that a student becomes educated. I do not have children so there is a lot I do not know, and if I said I know anything about children it would be from having been one, seeing a few neighbors' kids over the years, and seeing the crap in TV dramas about kids, and watching the news about kids. It seems to me there is a huge lack or parental concern about their children getting the most of their schooling. The concern might be greater that the kids have the �appropriate� name brand attire, rather than their behaving in a totally disciplined manner while in school.

If there is something wrong with teachers unions, then get rid of them, and take control of what teachers teach, but even more important is to take control of discipline in schools so that teachers can teach and students can learn. It can be done�I saw it in my high school education 49 years ago.

If allocation of funds is ever a poor allocation as it comes to providing public education, then the correct answer is light years away from the �answer� of not providing funds. If you pay someone to do a job and he/she doesn�t do the job, then fire him or her, and hire a worker who does a good job.

There is little doubt but that education today is more expensive; but if I look at my own failures in high school, college, and graduate school and residency, the things I did not come away with educationally were near totally my lack of application of toward getting as much as I could out of my education. Any university that I know about has more knowledge available in it than any student is capable of learning.

Does one pay schools and its teachers at any level whatever the fee is with the understanding that one is paying for the institution to force education into the brain of one�s child? Were it possible to only have one of two things that would result in all people being better educated: good teachers or good students, which would be better? To my thinking it is no contest. It would be to have good students.

The amount of money spent for something in a real sense in not necessarily a statement of the true value of the item purchased. Paying a private university $40K a year so your child can go there could be a total waste if the kid doesn�t want to learn. So you are right that money spent on education is always well spent is not a truism. However if one qualifies the statement by adding to educate a good studentthen all I can say is that such statement as I have amended is about as good as things are going to be.

The more ignorance society allows to take root, the worse off is society. You cannot make a student learn, but I aver that if there were more discipline between parents and children, then children would be more disciplined in their participation in education. I was a good student because my parents never let me forget that I was going to get educated so that I could survive, but I could have been a better student had my parents themselves been better educated and better directed me,and had I followed that direction All this crap that exists in American education is not primarily the fault of the educational system.

Jim

[BK]

Jim,
We are off topic a bit.

I disagree with your point - "Teachers are underpaid" but, I agree- Parents are the ones who guarantee that a child has the educational experiences (not necessarily formal school) to succeed. Parents educating their Kids about money is the only way to prevent financial manias.

I completely disagree that Teachers are underpaid - they were once under paid. Myths never die in our society. Most teachers are accrueing a Pension benefit that will provide them a much better retirement than their slightly higher earning/401K plan friends. Most of the teachers 401K plan friends will mis manage their 401K plan and not be prepared for retirement - survive in times of layoffs and downsizing. All the teacher must do their time and stay in good health (luckily we tax payers provide them with first class/cheap - lifetime health insurance).

Read: http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/15/nyregion/15liteach.html?ei=5088&en=b7dc5f3ec2343ad9&ex=1273809600&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&pagewanted=print
From the article:
"One in 12 teachers in Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Rockland and Putnam Counties now earns more than $100,000, and the ranks are growing fast, according to an analysis of state data by The New York Times. On Long Island from 2001 to 2003 (the most recent figures available), the number grew fivefold, to 2,800, including 498 elementary school teachers, 29 physical education teachers and 83 kindergarten teachers."
$100K for teaching GYM - We Taxpayers are out-to-lunch.

My Dad was a teacher before, and after Unions, my mother, my sister, my grandmother, my grandfather, and two Aunts were also teachers, Many Government jobs are overly compensated when you porperly account CASH value of all the benefits. Perhaps Municipalities going bankrupt will adjust this mis-allocation of capital in the future.

Lucky for the government employees - people generally don't understand finance or numbers.

[Jim Nickerson]

BK,

I don't think we are off topic, if manias are due to ignorance.

There are two jobs in society that are the most important for the future of man.

1. Is parenting, for which no license or skill in required.

2. Is educators.

The knowledge base far exceeds anyone's abilities to acquire it all. Compared to many, I know nothing about investing, but had my parents been responsible for educating me about the stock market, I would know much less than the little I know. I do not know that either of them ever mentioned the words investment mania. I doubt it ever came up.

You, I believe, are irritated about the political aspects of education. The only way I know for something new in politics to take hold, that would be better than what we have devolved to politically, would be for so many poor ignorant people to become so disenchanted with our capitalistic democracy, that it is over thrown, and started anew.

I guess if things get bad enough, it will happen.

Jim

[jeffolie]

With our educators being so liberal, I have no fear that the poorly educated mass of investors will know the details of the 2nd year low in the 4 year presidential cycle. Teachers fail to educate students the basics of economics, let alone investing history and techniques.