Change of direction

[Tulpen]

Closed my shorts on oil and went long oil and gold.

[phirang]

Closed my shorts on oil and went long oil and gold.

nice work, soros:cool:.

[friendly_jacek]

Closed my shorts on oil and went long oil and gold.

Did you keep your oil shorts since april?

I tried to short oil in may and then june and burned some serious money.

I don't know, Farber and many other people say to stay away from oil for the rest of 2008.

I'm just about to buy PM though.

Boy, I had all the macroeconomic stuff figured out since 2007 but still managed to loose some $$$ on imprecise timing and execution flaws. I guess I still need my $$$$$$ daytime job.

[Tulpen]

Did you keep your oil shorts since april?

Yes, I slowly built a short position when it went up and had to suffer paper losses, it took me a long time to get above water level again when it finally went down.

Same now, I am slowly building up a long position. I now have about 80% of my initial investment in long oil and 20% in long gold. Eventually I will be 70% long gold and 30% long oil of a maximum investment level of about 50%. I also might take additional investments in FXI or EEM (China and other emerging markets) if these funds get further depressed in sympathy with the problems in the US.

Turning point for me was that I believe that the dollar is due for a big correction. I would not be surprised if the current dollar strength is actually coordinated by central banks, but after the government actions on GSE I believe the dollar is going to be in trouble again.

[Tulpen]

Closed my shorts on oil and went long oil and gold.
Added some more oil to my position.

[Tulpen]

Sold all my oil and gold positions last Friday.

I am on the sidelines now, next week is simply too unpredictable and gold and oil may fall irrationally while the dollar might irrationally go up.

One thing is a sure thing in my mind, the dollar is not going to stay the world's reserve currency for long but I feel that now is not the right moment to capitalize on that.

[Lukester]

I don't know, Farber and many other people say to stay away from oil for the rest of 2008. I'm just about to buy PM though.

I think staying away from both gold and oil makes sense until the spring of 2009. Not that I'm following that advice as I got caught in this savage downturn near fully allocated in bullions and am comitted to riding this out. But if I had cash, I would not commit it till April 2009, and as per Tulpen's point, especially in oil, which is almost assured to correct down further. It is performing as primary correction of the entire bull market since 2001, and my view is one does not want to step in the way of this runaway mack truck with any new money. Marc Faber seems dead on right here on both the gold and the oil for the rest of this year. After all the dust settles on this correction though oil then becomes the single most conservative bet to bull on forward out to the mid 2020's. I am unlike you guys though, in that I really loathe trading. In my ideal world I would buy one investment and sit on it for ten years.

[Tulpen]

Sold all my oil and gold positions last Friday.
Hmm, a little bit too early :)

[sn1p3r]

...no shame in taking a profit :D