Gold Stagnating for 5 years?

[raja]

http://www.itulip.com/images/dollargold2008-2015projectionNOTES.gif

What am I missing here?

The iTulip thesis is that there's going to be a lot of future inflation, so invest in gold because it will keep its value vs. the sinking US dollar.

Yet this iTulip chart shows that gold will stagnate at about $1000 for something like 5 years. 5 YEARS :eek:

I must be missing something, because this seems idiotic. It's more likely that I'm the idiot than iTulip, so please explain it to me . . . .

I know it's been said here that it's impossible to time the markets . . . but it seems like letting savings stagnate for 5 years is less preferable that investing in something else like Treasuries until gold shows signs of a clear uptrend.

By the way, the chart is already wrong . . . as I write gold is down to 805 :(

[Jim Nickerson]

http://www.itulip.com/images/dollargold2008-2015projectionNOTES.gif

What am I missing here?

The iTulip thesis is that there's going to be a lot of future inflation, so invest in gold because it will keep its value vs. the sinking US dollar.

Yet this iTulip chart shows that gold will stagnate at about $1000 for something like 5 years. 5 YEARS :eek:

I must be missing something, because this seems idiotic. It's more likely that I'm the idiot than iTulip, so please explain it to me . . . .

I know it's been said here that it's impossible to time the markets . . . but it seems like letting savings stagnate for 5 years is less preferable that investing in something else like Treasuries until gold shows signs of a clear uptrend.

By the way, the chart is already wrong . . . as I write gold is down to 805 :(

Itulip can give you its answer, but I wish to take issue with your statement--which I take as not necessarily being your own opinion on the matter.

In my opinion, every time someone (who is semi-serious) buys or sells a position (unless done so for an absolute necessity to raise cash), one makes a timing decision. Sy Harding, a newsletter writer, recently wrote an interesting piece on decisionpoint.com where he offered his disagreements with the notion of timing not being good, and buying and holding being good. He alleged the Wall Street firms make timing buys and sells all the time, but at the same time telling the small investor to just buy and buy and buy and hold. I would reference the article, but decisionpoint.com does archive its articles.

I totally agree that timing is impossible if one thinks that means picking absolute tops and bottoms. Even I, being nothing approaching a really-smart-investor, can and do make timing decisions that prove productive of gains. Not all of anybody's market entries or exits (not anybody I've known) are correct, but all one has to achieve is to be right more often than wrong and importantly cut one's losses when the market goes against whatever led to one entering it.

The only way a "buy and hold" approach makes sense to me is if one is young, does not have the time to learn about markets, makes enough new capital annually to continually dollar cost average into positions, and is smart enough to diversify his/her investments.

[jimmygu3]

http://www.itulip.com/images/dollargold2008-2015projectionNOTES.gif

What am I missing here?

The iTulip thesis is that there's going to be a lot of future inflation, so invest in gold because it will keep its value vs. the sinking US dollar.

Yet this iTulip chart shows that gold will stagnate at about $1000 for something like 5 years. 5 YEARS :eek:

I must be missing something, because this seems idiotic. It's more likely that I'm the idiot than iTulip, so please explain it to me . . . .

I know it's been said here that it's impossible to time the markets . . . but it seems like letting savings stagnate for 5 years is less preferable that investing in something else like Treasuries until gold shows signs of a clear uptrend.

By the way, the chart is already wrong . . . as I write gold is down to 805 :(

I remember a few months back when we were dropping from over $1000 through the $900s, FRED mentioned sources saying gold was going to $800. Well, here we are. It was the small trade within the big trade (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=29425#poststop).

I also think it's important not to take a forecasting chart too literally. What if we see a return to $1000 before flattening out? What if the big rise to $2000 happens earlier? 150% gain over the next 8 years is 12% annualized. So what if it's a bumpy ride? Of course, I only hold 10-20% metals and don't plan to sell any time soon. If memory serves, I think EJ's allocation is in that neighborhood.

Jimmy

[EJ]

Itulip can give you its answer, but I wish to take issue with your statement--which I take as not necessarily being your own opinion on the matter.

In my opinion, every time someone (who is semi-serious) buys or sells a position (unless done so for an absolute necessity to raise cash), one makes a timing decision. Sy Harding, a newsletter writer, recently wrote an interesting piece on decisionpoint.com where he offered his disagreements with the notion of timing not being good, and buying and holding being good. He alleged the Wall Street firms make timing buys and sells all the time, but at the same time telling the small investor to just buy and buy and buy and hold. I would reference the article, but decisionpoint.com does archive its articles.

I totally agree that timing is impossible if one thinks that means picking absolute tops and bottoms. Even I, being nothing approaching a really-smart-investor, can and do make timing decisions that prove productive of gains. Not all of anybody's market entries or exits (not anybody I've known) are correct, but all one has to achieve is to be right more often than wrong and importantly cut one's losses when the market goes against whatever led to one entering it.

The only way a "buy and hold" approach makes sense to me is if one is young, does not have the time to learn about markets, makes enough new capital annually to continually dollar cost average into positions, and is smart enough to diversify his/her investments.

Depends completely on what you are buying and selling, and whether you are in a bear or bull market for it.

If transaction costs are high, as is the case with houses and gold, then you want to spend your time developing a thesis for a long term multi-year trade, take a position, and hold it.

If transaction costs are low, then you may want to trade IF you have special information that gives you an advantage.

Special information that can be used to make shorter term trades IF transaction costs (taxes and fees) are low (e.g., ETFs and stocks on a discount brokerage account) includes:


A unique investment thesis that works (e.g., "small trade within bit trade, range bound speculative trades within a long term dollar depreciation trend)
Connect-the-dots thesis (e.g., stock bubbles work like ABC, therefor sell March 2000 and housing bubbles go like XYZ, housing bubble top in 2006, sell)
Legally obtained and usable inside information (e.g., the Fed will do creative things at the discount window instead of lowering rates to 1% and banks used treasury bonds to buy commodities during the Fed bailout)

Gold is an example of an asset that is better to hold than trade. From a Select article in the works: Why has trading gold been a bad idea?

Let's say you're me or an early iTulip reader with an interest in gold. You bought gold in 2001 around $270. But you have been watching TV and reading the blogs and web sites that recommend trading all the time and are infected by the trading virus. You can't stay focused on a long term investment thesis, no matter how much time you've sunk into it. You watch the markets obsessively, like a rabbit for hawks, reacting to ever rustle in the trees. Here's how you stack up against me and iTulip readers who didn't trade.

Let's also say you aren't just any trader. No, you are the ultimate genius trader who makes every trade with care, discipline, and without emotion. Like a character from an on old Twilight Zone episode, you have tomorrow's newspaper in hand to guide each gold trade you make. You aren't neurotic about it. Every year there is one big trade and you make it. Perfectly, every time. You catch the exact top and bottom of each major move in gold. Your transaction costs are limited to the spread between the buy and sell prices of gold and the aforementioned horrific 28% taxes annually.

Here are your nine perfect gold trades since 2001.

http://www.itulip.com/images/goldtradedNoETF.gif


For all your hard work you made 86% versus the lazy iTuliper who did nothing and cleared 155% after taxes if he or she sold today at $820 spot, $850 sell.

But the spread doesn't count if you aren't buying bullion, you object. Okay, but ETFs were not available until November 2004 when gold was already trading over $420. No matter. Let's assume you traded in your bullion like a genius at the high price in 2004 then and bought ETFs at the lowest.

http://www.itulip.com/images/goldtradedWithETF.gif

Better, 104% vs 86% net gain but still not the 155% you'd earn by doing nothing.

Trading is just not as good as sticking to your thesis in a bull market.

The same holds for bear markets, but in reverse. You can try to make money shorting your way down but unless you are our mythical genius trader who gets ever trade right and transaction costs are very low, you are better off going to cash and looking for a new bull market to ride long term elsewhere.

That is the essence of the iTulip investment philosophy.

[krakknisse]

Trading is just not as good as sticking to your thesis in a bull market.

The same holds for bear markets, but in reverse. You can try to make money shorting your way down but unless you are our mythical genius trader who gets ever trade right and transaction costs are very low, you are better off going to cash and looking for a new bull market to ride long term elsewhere.

That is the essence of the iTulip investment philosophy.


Whoo hoo! Go EJ! That's the best post I've read in months in here - worth every penny!

[gasull]

If transaction costs are high, as is the case with houses and gold, then you want to spend your time developing a thesis for a long term multi-year trade, take a position, and hold it.

Eric, best post ever. Some newbies like me need this kind of posts to learn the basics. Thanks a lot.

[c1ue]

EJ,

Some of the headings are confusing.

I assume spread is the buy vs. sell spread in physical gold?

And that net transaction costs includes storage, shipping, and what not?

Because the total net transaction costs for the buy and hold is almost the same as for the total for all of the other 'trades'.

Therefore it would seem that the only difference is the high tax rate on PMs and failure to roll profit into the next trade.

If the gains are then rolled into the next trade, the results do change.

This won't make up for the difference, but is not nothing especially if the 'perfect trades' bought in for less than the previous sale, as opposed to the same price as in the example.

Without using your spreads, but with an assumption of 1% fees for each buy and/or sell, and with rolling of proceeds:


<TABLE style="WIDTH: 596pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=794 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" width=64><COL style="WIDTH: 53pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2560" width=70><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" span=7 width=64><COL style="WIDTH: 55pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2669" width=73><COL style="WIDTH: 56pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2742" width=75><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" width=64><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64 height=17></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 53pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=70></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64>Buy Price</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64>Quantity</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64>Sell Price</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64>Value</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64>Gain</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64>Spread</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64>Tax @ 28%</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 55pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=73>Net tx costs</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 56pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=75>Net Gain %</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64>Cumulative Gain vs. original investment</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>Aug 2001 - Oct 2001</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="270">$270</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>100</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="290">$290</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="29000" x:fmla="=E2*D2">$29,000</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="2000" x:fmla="=(E2-C2)*D2">$2,000</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1149" x:fmla="=G2-I2-J2">$1,149</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="560" x:fmla="=G2*0.28">$560</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="291" x:fmla="=(D2+F2)*0.01">$291</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="4.2555555555555555E-2" x:fmla="=H2/(D2*C2)">4.26%</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="4.2555555555555555E-2" x:fmla="=K2">4.26%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>Oct 2001 - Jun 2002</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="290">$290</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="97.065517241379311" x:fmla="=((C2*D2)+H2)/C3">97</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="325">$325</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="31546.293103448275" x:fmla="=E3*D3">$31,546</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="3397.2931034482758" x:fmla="=(E3-C3)*D3">$3,397</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="2129.617448275862" x:fmla="=G3-I3-J3">$2,130</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="951.24206896551732" x:fmla="=G3*0.28">$951</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="316.43358620689656" x:fmla="=(D3+F3)*0.01">$316</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="7.5655172413793104E-2" x:fmla="=H3/(D3*C3)">7.57%</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.11821072796934866" x:fmla="=L2+K3">11.82%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>Jun 2002 - Jan 2003</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="325">$325</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="93.164976763925722" x:fmla="=((C3*D3)+H3)/C4">93</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="380">$380</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="35402.691170291771" x:fmla="=E4*D4">$35,403</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="5124.0737220159144" x:fmla="=(E4-C4)*D4">$5,124</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="3334.374518380901" x:fmla="=G4-I4-J4">$3,334</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1434.7406421644562" x:fmla="=G4*0.28">$1,435</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="354.95856147055696" x:fmla="=(D4+F4)*0.01">$355</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.11012307692307691" x:fmla="=H4/(D4*C4)">11.01%</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.22833380489242555" x:fmla="=L3+K4">22.83%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>Jan 2003 - Jan 2004</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="380">$380</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="88.45524201751779" x:fmla="=((C4*D4)+H4)/C5">88</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="420">$420</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="37151.201647357469" x:fmla="=E5*D5">$37,151</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="3538.2096807007115" x:fmla="=(E5-C5)*D5">$3,538</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="2175.1144012107625" x:fmla="=G5-I5-J5">$2,175</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="990.69871059619936" x:fmla="=G5*0.28">$991</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="372.39656889374987" x:fmla="=(D5+F5)*0.01">$372</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="6.4710526315789482E-2" x:fmla="=H5/(D5*C5)">6.47%</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.29304433120821505" x:fmla="=L4+K5">29.30%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>Jan 2004 - Dec 2004</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="420">$420</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="85.209777066351236" x:fmla="=((C5*D5)+H5)/C6">85</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="450">$450</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="38344.399679858056" x:fmla="=E6*D6">$38,344</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="2556.2933119905369" x:fmla="=(E6-C6)*D6">$2,556</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1456.2350900639424" x:fmla="=G6-I6-J6">$1,456</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="715.76212735735044" x:fmla="=G6*0.28">$716</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="384.29609456924408" x:fmla="=(D6+F6)*0.01">$384</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="4.069047619047618E-2" x:fmla="=H6/(D6*C6)">4.07%</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.33373480739869121" x:fmla="=L5+K6">33.37%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>Dec 2004 - Dec 2005</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="450">$450</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="82.765203239847693" x:fmla="=((C6*D6)+H6)/C7">83</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="540">$540</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="44693.209749517751" x:fmla="=E7*D7">$44,693</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="7448.8682915862928" x:fmla="=(E7-C7)*D7">$7,449</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="4915.4254204145545" x:fmla="=G7-I7-J7">$4,915</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="2085.6831216441624" x:fmla="=G7*0.28">$2,086</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="447.75974952757599" x:fmla="=(D7+F7)*0.01">$448</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.13197777777777778" x:fmla="=H7/(D7*C7)">13.20%</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.46571258517646896" x:fmla="=L6+K7">46.57%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>Dec 2005 - May 2006</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="450">$450</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="93.688370840768926" x:fmla="=((C7*D7)+H7)/C8">94</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="725">$725</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="67924.068859557476" x:fmla="=E8*D8">$67,924</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="25764.301981211454" x:fmla="=(E8-C8)*D8">$25,764</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="17870.119854168264" x:fmla="=G8-I8-J8">$17,870</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="7214.0045547392083" x:fmla="=G8*0.28">$7,214</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="680.17757230398252" x:fmla="=(D8+F8)*0.01">$680</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.42386666666666667" x:fmla="=H8/(D8*C8)">42.39%</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.88957925184313558" x:fmla="=L7+K8">88.96%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>May 2006 - Nove 2007</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="725">$725</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="82.799843768985212" x:fmla="=((C8*D8)+H8)/C9">83</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="840">$840</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="69551.868765947584" x:fmla="=E9*D9">$69,552</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="9521.9820334332999" x:fmla="=(E9-C9)*D9">$9,522</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="6159.4803779748099" x:fmla="=G9-I9-J9">$6,159</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="2666.1549693613242" x:fmla="=G9*0.28">$2,666</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="696.34668609716562" x:fmla="=(D9+F9)*0.01">$696</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.10260689655172414" x:fmla="=H9/(D9*C9)">10.26%</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.99218614839485975" x:fmla="=L8+K9">99.22%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>Nov 2007 - Apr 2008</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="840">$840</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="78.796865607725096" x:fmla="=((C9*D9)+H9)/C10">79</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1020">$1,020</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="80372.802919879599" x:fmla="=E10*D10">$80,373</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="14183.435809390518" x:fmla="=(E10-C10)*D10">$14,183</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="9407.5577849062993" x:fmla="=G10-I10-J10">$9,408</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="3971.3620266293451" x:fmla="=G10*0.28">$3,971</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="804.51599785487326" x:fmla="=(D10+F10)*0.01">$805</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.14213095238095239" x:fmla="=H10/(D10*C10)">14.21%</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1.1343171007758122" x:fmla="=L9+K10">113.43%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


With more ideal trades - i.e. sell high, buy lower than high, sell high (but not theoretical ideal highs or lows - just around rough high/low pauses:


<TABLE style="WIDTH: 596pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=794 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" width=64><COL style="WIDTH: 53pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2560" width=70><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" span=7 width=64><COL style="WIDTH: 55pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2669" width=73><COL style="WIDTH: 56pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 2742" width=75><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" width=64><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64 height=17></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 53pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=70></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64>Buy Price</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64>Quantity</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64>Sell Price</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64>Value</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64>Gain</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64>Spread</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64>Tax @ 28%</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 55pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=73>Trading fees</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 56pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=75>Net Gain %</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64>Cumulative Gain vs. original investment</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>Aug 2001 - Dec 2001</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="260">$260</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num>100</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="290">$290</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="29000" x:fmla="=E2*D2">$29,000</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="3000" x:fmla="=(E2-C2)*D2">$3,000</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1610" x:fmla="=G2-I2-J2">$1,610</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="840" x:fmla="=G2*0.28">$840</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="550" x:fmla="=((D2*C2)+F2)*0.01">$550</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="6.1923076923076921E-2" x:fmla="=H2/(D2*C2)">6.19%</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="6.1923076923076921E-2" x:fmla="=K2">6.19%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>Jan 2002 - Jun 2002</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="280">$280</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="98.607142857142861" x:fmla="=((C2*D2)+H2)/C3">99</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="320">$320</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="31554.285714285717" x:fmla="=E3*D3">$31,554</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="3944.2857142857147" x:fmla="=(E3-C3)*D3">$3,944</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="2248.2428571428568" x:fmla="=G3-I3-J3">$2,248</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1104.4" x:fmla="=G3*0.28">$1,104</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="591.64285714285722" x:fmla="=((D3*C3)+F3)*0.01">$592</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="8.142857142857142E-2" x:fmla="=H3/(D3*C3)">8.14%</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.14335164835164835" x:fmla="=L2+K3">14.34%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>Oct 2002 - Feb 2003</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="310">$310</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="96.316912442396315" x:fmla="=((C3*D3)+H3)/C4">96</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="370">$370</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="35637.257603686638" x:fmla="=E4*D4">$35,637</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="5779.0147465437785" x:fmla="=(E4-C4)*D4">$5,779</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="3505.9356129032258" x:fmla="=G4-I4-J4">$3,506</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1618.1241290322582" x:fmla="=G4*0.28">$1,618</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="654.95500460829498" x:fmla="=((D4*C4)+F4)*0.01">$655</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.11741935483870967" x:fmla="=H4/(D4*C4)">11.74%</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.26077100319035801" x:fmla="=L3+K4">26.08%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>April 2003 - May 2003</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="325">$325</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="102.65901067706487" x:fmla="=((C4*D4)+H4)/C5">103</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="370">$370</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="37983.833950514003" x:fmla="=E5*D5">$37,984</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="4619.655480467919" x:fmla="=(E5-C5)*D5">$4,620</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="2612.6718217313005" x:fmla="=G5-I5-J5">$2,613</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1293.5035345310175" x:fmla="=G5*0.28">$1,294</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="713.48012420560087" x:fmla="=((D5*C5)+F5)*0.01">$713</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="7.8307692307692287E-2" x:fmla="=H5/(D5*C5)">7.83%</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.33907869549805031" x:fmla="=L4+K5">33.91%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>July 2003 - Jan 2004</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="345">$345</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="104.28072548341272" x:fmla="=((C5*D5)+H5)/C6">104</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="425">$425</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="44319.308330450411" x:fmla="=E6*D6">$44,319</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="8342.4580386730177" x:fmla="=(E6-C6)*D6">$8,342</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="5203.6082016222945" x:fmla="=G6-I6-J6">$5,204</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="2335.8882508284451" x:fmla="=G6*0.28">$2,336</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="802.96158622227802" x:fmla="=((D6*C6)+F6)*0.01">$803</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.14463768115942027" x:fmla="=H6/(D6*C6)">14.46%</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.48371637665747058" x:fmla="=L5+K6">48.37%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>May 2004 - Dec 2004</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="380">$380</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="108.36962761420969" x:fmla="=((C6*D6)+H6)/C7">108</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="450">$450</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="48766.332426394358" x:fmla="=E7*D7">$48,766</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="7585.8739329946784" x:fmla="=(E7-C7)*D7">$7,586</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="4562.3613225582276" x:fmla="=G7-I7-J7">$4,562</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="2124.0447012385102" x:fmla="=G7*0.28">$2,124</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="899.46790919794034" x:fmla="=((D7*C7)+F7)*0.01">$899</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.11078947368421052" x:fmla="=H7/(D7*C7)">11.08%</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.59450585034168113" x:fmla="=L6+K7">59.45%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>May 2005 - Feb 2006</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="420">$420</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="108.91147575228074" x:fmla="=((C7*D7)+H7)/C8">109</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="570">$570</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="62079.54117880002" x:fmla="=E8*D8">$62,080</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="16336.72136284211" x:fmla="=(E8-C8)*D8">$16,337</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="10684.215771298741" x:fmla="=G8-I8-J8">$10,684</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="4574.281981595791" x:fmla="=G8*0.28">$4,574</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1078.2236099475795" x:fmla="=((D8*C8)+F8)*0.01">$1,078</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.23357142857142857" x:fmla="=H8/(D8*C8)">23.36%</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.82807727891310967" x:fmla="=L7+K8">82.81%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>Mar 2006 - May 2006</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="550">$550</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="102.59461015864845" x:fmla="=((C8*D8)+H8)/C9">103</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="700">$700</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="71816.227111053915" x:fmla="=E9*D9">$71,816</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="15389.191523797268" x:fmla="=(E9-C9)*D9">$15,389</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="9797.7852701509273" x:fmla="=G9-I9-J9">$9,798</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="4308.9736266632353" x:fmla="=G9*0.28">$4,309</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1282.4326269831058" x:fmla="=((D9*C9)+F9)*0.01">$1,282</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.17363636363636364" x:fmla="=H9/(D9*C9)">17.36%</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1.0017136425494733" x:fmla="=L8+K9">100.17%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>Sep 2006 - Dec 2006</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="580">$580</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="114.18072561621997" x:fmla="=((C9*D9)+H9)/C10">114</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="640">$640</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="73075.664394380787" x:fmla="=E10*D10">$73,076</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="6850.8435369731988" x:fmla="=(E10-C10)*D10">$6,851</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="3539.602494102819" x:fmla="=G10-I10-J10">$3,540</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1918.2361903524959" x:fmla="=G10*0.28">$1,918</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1393.0048525178838" x:fmla="=((D10*C10)+F10)*0.01">$1,393</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="5.3448275862068961E-2" x:fmla="=H10/(D10*C10)">5.34%</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1.0551619184115422" x:fmla="=L9+K10">105.52%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>Jan 2007 - April 2007</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="610">$610</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="114.3679071336236" x:fmla="=((C10*D10)+H10)/C11">114</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="680">$680</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="77770.176850864053" x:fmla="=E11*D11">$77,770</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="8005.7534993536519" x:fmla="=(E11-C11)*D11">$8,006</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="4288.7965175108848" x:fmla="=G11-I11-J11">$4,289</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="2241.6109798190228" x:fmla="=G11*0.28">$2,242</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1475.3460020237446" x:fmla="=((D11*C11)+F11)*0.01">$1,475</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="6.1475409836065566E-2" x:fmla="=H11/(D11*C11)">6.15%</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1.1166373282476076" x:fmla="=L10+K11">111.66%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>July 2007 - Nov 2007</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="650">$650</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="113.92803056772505" x:fmla="=((C11*D11)+H11)/C12">114</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="830">$830</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="94560.26537121179" x:fmla="=E12*D12">$94,560</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="20507.045502190507" x:fmla="=(E12-C12)*D12">$20,507</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="13078.937909174834" x:fmla="=G12-I12-J12">$13,079</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="5741.9727406133425" x:fmla="=G12*0.28">$5,742</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1686.1348524023308" x:fmla="=((D12*C12)+F12)*0.01">$1,686</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.17661538461538459" x:fmla="=H12/(D12*C12)">17.66%</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1.2932527128629923" x:fmla="=L11+K12">129.33%</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; mso-ignore: colspan" colSpan=2 height=17>Dec 2007 - Mar 2008</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="790">$790</TD><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="110.29387060531155" x:fmla="=((C12*D12)+H12)/C13">110</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1010">$1,010</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="111396.80931136468" x:fmla="=E13*D13">$111,397</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="24264.65153316854" x:fmla="=(E13-C13)*D13">$24,265</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="15485.25943298574" x:fmla="=G13-I13-J13">$15,485</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="6794.1024292871916" x:fmla="=G13*0.28">$6,794</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1985.2896708956082" x:fmla="=((D13*C13)+F13)*0.01">$1,985</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="0.17772151898734176" x:fmla="=H13/(D13*C13)">17.77%</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" align=right x:num="1.470974231850334" x:fmla="=L12+K13">147.10%</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


This does not in any way detract from your message as the larger number of trades also means a much greater chance of picking the wrong trade, but does highlight that taxation is the biggest problem trading PMs.

[raja]

The same holds for bear markets, but in reverse. You can try to make money shorting your way down but unless you are our mythical genius trader who gets ever trade right and transaction costs are very low, you are better off going to cash and looking for a new bull market to ride long term elsewhere.

That is the essence of the iTulip investment philosophy.

Am I crazy, or what? Doesn't anybody see this?

The iTulip chart shown in my post above shows gold FLAT for 5 years! :eek:

This is not a question of trading vs. holding, this is a question of losing money for 5 years (when counting in inflation).

Yes, jimmyg, one doesn't want to take the chart too literally . . . on the other hand, one has to go by something to make one's bets, and iTulip has a good prediction track record.

So the conclusion I draw is to sell gold when it goes back up to $1000, buy Treasuries and collect 2% interest or more for the next 5 years . . . then buy back into gold after it starts to head up again.

EJ, if you're going to change your prediction of gold NOT being flat for the next 5 years, then I'm right there with you -- HOLD gold. But if you're sticking to the chart above, then holding seems like a losing strategy . . . .

As I said before . . . what am I missing?

[FRED]

Am I crazy, or what? Doesn't anybody see this?

The iTulip chart shown in my post above shows gold FLAT for 5 years! :eek:

This is not a question of trading vs. holding, this is a question of losing money for 5 years (when counting in inflation).

Yes, jimmyg, one doesn't want to take the chart too literally . . . on the other hand, one has to go by something to make one's bets, and iTulip has a good prediction track record.

So the conclusion I draw is to sell gold when it goes back up to $1000, buy Treasuries and collect 2% interest or more for the next 5 years . . . then buy back into gold after it starts to head up again.

EJ, if you're going to change your prediction of gold NOT being flat for the next 5 years, then I'm right there with you -- HOLD gold. But if you're sticking to the chart above, then holding seems like a losing strategy . . . .

As I said before . . . what am I missing?

EJ writes in:
Of course, do not take this chart, or any other futures chart such as the Ka-Poom Theory chart, literally. These charts are "stakes in the ground" around which the validity of a thesis is measured.

Actuals will deviate from the forecast, for obvious reasons, but if you have to rip the stake out of the ground and move it then your thesis was fundamentally flawed. Throw it out. Back to the drawing board.

The chart above, as you will see from the analysis that follows tomorrow, suggests that the transition from the FIRE Economy will happen in stages of crisis that are expressed in many ways, among them as steps of decline in the dollar. So far these have been modest, and perhaps as the chart suggests will drag out for a very long time before culminating in a sudden decline and rise in gold in response.

But just as possible is the opposite, a sudden collapse followed by a slow, drawn-out decline. Governments not private persons own our debt so the trajectory is geopolitical and that, recent events remind us, is highly unpredictable.

The chart is also a message for anyone who recently bought into gold because the price was high and rising: that is a terrible reason to buy anything, but especially gold. If you are trading gold, expect to have your ass handed to you over and over. Buy and hold as long as the thesis holds, and get out as soon as you can after it doesn't. Easier said than done.

You either buy into the thesis or you don't, and stick with it or you lose in trading even if initially you were right. Timing errors and transaction costs will kill you faster than errors of judgment in determining a secular trend change.

Paradoxically, markets punish equivocation as much as stubbornness. All of the art of life is expressed in markets.

[Andreuccio]

All of the art of life is expressed in markets.

I'd love to see you expand on that sometime.

[phirang]

Miner valuations are noteworhy if you're long infrastructure.