Derivatives

[bart]

<center>Derivatives

</center> The charts below are derived from BIS (http://www.bis.org/) data on OTC (Over The Counter) unregulated derivatives (http://www.nowandfutures.com/glossary.html#derivatives), which are a much larger market than regulated derivatives on the various exchanges world wide.

For reference, total volumes on regulated exchanges as of the quarter ending 12/2006, in billions of dollars: <table cellpadding="6"> <tbody><tr> <th> </th> <th>Total outstanding</th> <th>Total turnover</th> <th>Interest rate instruments portion</th> </tr> <tr> <td>Futures</td> <td align="right">$ 21,600</td> <td align="right">$310,500</td> <td align="right">$285,300</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Options</td> <td align="right">$ 36,200</td> <td align="right">$120,600</td> <td align="right">$ 95,800</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
The BIS data source is here (http://www.bis.org/publ/quarterly.htm).



<center>Nominal (face) value

</center>

<center>http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/bis_derivatives_nominal1.png</center>

<center>http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/bis_derivatives_nominal2.png</center>


<center>(same data, except shown as annual rates of change)</center>
<center>http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/bis_derivatives_nominal_roc1.png</center>

<center>http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/bis_derivatives_nominal_roc2.png</center>

<hr align="center" width="75%"> <center>Market value

</center> <center>http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/bis_derivatives_market1.png</center>

<center>http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/bis_derivatives_market2.png</center>


<center>(same data, except shown as annual rates of change)</center>
<center>http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/bis_derivatives_market_roc1.png</center>

<center>http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/bis_derivatives_market_roc2.png</center>

<hr> <center>U.S. derivatives

</center> <center>http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/us_derivatives.png</center>
<center>http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/us_derivatives_mkt_value.png</center>

<center>Source (http://www.occ.treas.gov/deriv/deriv.htm)</center>

[c1ue]

Bart,

Applying your bubble rules to the graphs above...does this mean the end is nigh?

[bart]

Bart,

Applying your bubble rules to the graphs above...does this mean the end is nigh?

Best guess - no, based on those charts and also my crisis chart. Most of them are far from going parabolic.