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View Full Version : "This may well be the most over-anticipated and over-analyzed downturn in history. "



blazespinnaker
09-27-06, 12:41 AM
http://dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2006/fs060925.cfm



This may well be the most over-anticipated and over-analyzed downturn in history. One prominent CEO recently told me that “the only situation that has received more intense analysis than the housing market was the birth of Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie’s baby.” But it is a serious matter nonetheless, with not insignificant consequences for the economy.


Therefore, perhaps the downturn has already been priced in?

BK
09-27-06, 10:34 AM
I disagree - if this was anticipated why did Housing developer stocks get so high last summer and are header downward.
The next indicator will be trouble in with Banks...when Real Estate has a correction there is ALWAYs a corresponding correction in the Banking Industry. Also, Texas Real Estate prices didn't get as out of control as the West and East Coast. The Telecom blow out in 2000-2001 hit Texas hard and the memory of the early 1990 still remains in Texans minds. Most Massachusetts folks think the Real Estate bust of the early 1990s didn't happen - (I'm a big believer that humans have selective memory especially for negative memories like the early 90's Real Estate bust)

Poorly managed Banks will find themselves buried in Bad loans - or at least see their revenues drop off a cliff while Interest rates are rising.

jk
09-27-06, 10:50 AM
http://dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2006/fs060925.cfm



Therefore, perhaps the downturn has already been priced in?

at the top in 2000 you could have pointed to many commentators who were saying that we were in a bubble. then you could have said "it must already be priced in." but you would have been wrong.