View Full Version : Oil reality shows - can a correction be far off?
moonshot
06-25-08, 08:19 AM
http://www.trutv.com/shows/black_gold/
I recall during the housing boom, we saw a dramatic increase in the number of real estate related television shows (I counted at least 10 by 2005).
After a few oil related tv shows go up, it will probably be time to exit this trade.
http://www.trutv.com/shows/black_gold/
I recall during the housing boom, we saw a dramatic increase in the number of real estate related television shows (I counted at least 10 by 2005).
After a few oil related tv shows go up, it will probably be time to exit this trade.
The last oil boom (1970's) spawned "Dallas". The "Who Shot J.R.?" cliffhanger in early 1980 [and pumped by CBS all summer] pretty well marked the top of the oil spiral. Maybe you're right and we'll get a "rerun"...;)
The last oil boom (1970's) spawned "Dallas". The "Who Shot J.R.?" cliffhanger in early 1980 [and pumped by CBS all summer] pretty well marked the top of the oil spiral. Maybe you're right and we'll get a "rerun"...;)
Chart shows relationship between Fed Funds rate, CPI, oil prices, and the dollar in relation to oil price peaks. Recessions are shown in pink.
http://www.itulip.com/images/fedfundsVScpiVSoilVSdollar.gif
Lukester
06-26-08, 11:46 AM
August 2007 was an unbelievable buy point. Whatever happened to GORDO and his $50K option short on the oil price. Did he "hang in there waiting for this price spike to break"? The way trends are speeding up in the world (China / Japan new steel contract at double last year's price??) we may see that $300 / barrel oil a lot sooner than 7-10 years out.
Didn't anyone inform China and Japan they were supposed to be getting all dressed up for the deflation gala event this past week instead of signing lavish doubled down steel contracts with Rio Tinto? What the heck got into these guys? And slow growth Japan particularly - have they lost their minds? Hey you guys, you're going the wrong way, this is a one-way street! Recession's over this way!
August 2007 was an unbelievable buy point. Whatever happened to GORDO and his $50K option short on the oil price. Did he "hang in there waiting for this price spike to break"? The way trends are speeding up in the world (China / Japan new steel contract at double last year's price??) we may see that $300 / barrel oil a lot sooner than 7-10 years out.
Didn't anyone inform China and Japan they were supposed to be getting all dressed up for the deflation gala event this past week instead of signing lavish doubled down steel contracts with Rio Tinto? What the heck got into these guys? And slow growth Japan particularly - have they lost their minds? Hey you guys, you're going the wrong way, this is a one-way street! Recession's over this way!
Wonder how many more years it will take before the average US investor figures out that it's not a US-centric world anymore.
Wonder how many more years it will take before the average US investor figures out that it's not a US-centric world anymore.
When Bubblevision sends Maria to anchor their Asian bureau [and fires Haynes]...
Wonder how many more years it will take before the average US investor figures out that it's not a US-centric world anymore.
Unfortunately that usually involves losing a major war and the subsequent passage of decades. I'll vote for 2045.
babbittd
06-26-08, 02:36 PM
I thought the same about gold when about two-three months back, the commercials pushing people to buy it started appearing on the sheeple channels, CNN, FoxNews, etc.
Lukester
06-26-08, 02:43 PM
Unfortunately that usually involves losing a major war and the subsequent passage of decades. I'll vote for 2045.
Sounds about right.
phirang
06-26-08, 03:37 PM
what i love is how the central banks make supply/demand irrelevant...
what i love is how the central banks make supply/demand irrelevant...
As they say, "Don't fight the Fed"...:p
metalman
06-26-08, 06:53 PM
As they say, "Don't fight the Fed"...:p
or as ej says a global command economy for money.
phirang
06-26-08, 07:00 PM
or as ej says a global command economy for money.
It's ironic how a friend of mine, an HBS graduate and very, very, very intimiately connected(antecedents were all presidents and senators in the Democratic party) with the Democratic party, also today inadvertnatly re-affirmed EJ's thesis for New Deal 2.0, and naturlich, the same day Obama articulates the strategy EJ inferred for revivifying the US economy. This friend of mine is also campaigning for Obama, too.
It's coming: double-digit inflation, wage-inflaiton spiral, higher minimum wage, and base metals(phew for me!) have a good lower bound.
Now the question is: who is going to finance all this deficit spending? Private equity? SWF's? Sultan of Brunei? CIC?
vBulletin® v3.7.0, Copyright ©2000-2009, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.