bart
06-13-08, 12:19 PM
In the no guts, no glory and no attempted good deed goes unpunished departments, I recently updated my GDP prediction chart (which also shows the various money supply figures advanced 18 months as a very ball park representation of monetary lags).
http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/US_GDP_and_money.png
It appears to me that the official recession will be over in late winter/early spring 2009 period, best guess being in March/April.
The average length of US recessions since 1957 is about 10.5 months and the average length since 1800 is about 17 months, so a length of this one of about 15 months isn't outlandish. The 1973 recession was 16 months too (the double dip in the early '80s totaled 21 months), and I still believe that we're tracking the '70s pretty well.
Also note that the unofficial recession will continue much further than spring 2009, unofficial in the sense that I'm looking at real CPI corrected GDP rather than the BS from the BLS. My current best guess is that it will continue through at least all of 2009 but my crystal ball gets quite cloudy after that.
http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/US_GDP_and_money.png
It appears to me that the official recession will be over in late winter/early spring 2009 period, best guess being in March/April.
The average length of US recessions since 1957 is about 10.5 months and the average length since 1800 is about 17 months, so a length of this one of about 15 months isn't outlandish. The 1973 recession was 16 months too (the double dip in the early '80s totaled 21 months), and I still believe that we're tracking the '70s pretty well.
Also note that the unofficial recession will continue much further than spring 2009, unofficial in the sense that I'm looking at real CPI corrected GDP rather than the BS from the BLS. My current best guess is that it will continue through at least all of 2009 but my crystal ball gets quite cloudy after that.