Seattlegoindown...finally

[GRG55]

One of the few hold out areas in the USA seemed the Pacific Northwest. But here it comes, finally.

zoog, what are you seeing in Portland now?

Chilly May for Puget Sound-area real estate; prices keep sliding

By Elizabeth Rhodes
Seattle Times business reporter
Friday, June 6, 2008 - Page updated at 10:05 PM
As housing sales tanked last winter, local real-estate pros waited anxiously for the traditional spring sales surge to revive the troubled industry.

But May sales numbers, released Thursday, reveal that the surge has been more of a sputter — at least around Central Puget Sound.

Home prices remain soft, inventory remains high and interest rates are relatively low — all of which point to a buyer's market.

Proof is in median prices of single-family homes, which declined year-over-year in King, Snohomish, Pierce and Kitsap counties, according to statistics released Thursday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

House prices also declined from April to May in three of the four counties. Snohomish County was the exception. Its median price remained flat...
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...mesales06.html

[zoog]

Re: Seattlegoindown...finally

One of the few hold out areas in the USA seemed the Pacific Northwest. But here it comes, finally.

zoog, what are you seeing in Portland now?

Oh boy it's my favorite topic.:p

Our overall numbers are similar to Seattle, not surprisingly. As of March, the Portland Case-Shiller Index is down 6.5% from the peak. As of April, the RMLS metro average and median are down 8.45% and 8.94% respectively. Our peak was late last summer.

Our total inventory and months of supply are higher than any time since the local RMLS started tracking numbers in 1992. We spiked over a year of supply in January then retreated (a seasonal spike in and of itself is normal), but I believe we will solidly reach a year of supply in the next few months.

These are just the overall metro numbers. Some areas are in much worse shape, and the close-in parts of the city are not that bad... yet.

Through a friend, I recently heard from the realtor I worked with to buy and then sell my house. He said "I've got a lot of listings that are just sitting there..." The typical spring and summer boom may fizzle this year.

I have charts of course. But first, links to the two main local housing bubble blogs for anyone who might have more than a passing interest.

http://seattlebubble.com/blog/

http://portlandhousing.blogspot.com/

They both have charts and data which are different than mine, plus as always a lively discussion.

Case-Shiller recently started releasing data with three price tiers for most of the 20 markets they track. The actual dollar price point for each tier varies by market, of course, and changes somewhat from month-to-month. Interestingly so far in Portland, the low-end has flattened out, while high-end has dropped the most. I took a very quick look at the tiers for other cities, and in some the low-end has dropped much more, some the high-end, and for the rest the three tiers are all about the same.


It looks to me like we will hit ~19,000 active listings this year. The number of pending (yellow) and closed (green) sales have really tapered off.


This chart gives you an idea of how different areas around Portland are doing. Generally speaking, with some exceptions, EJ's prediction of exurbs falling first, then suburbs, then central city has been true for Portland so far. Reading left to right, once you get past Clark County, WA, those areas to the right are hours away from the metro... along the coast or out along the Columbia Gorge. Some of those counties already have over two years of supply.


Here's the drop chart for the cities that Case-Shiller tracks for comparison with other markets.

[GRG55]

Re: Seattlegoindown...finally

Oh boy it's my favorite topic.:p

...This chart gives you an idea of how different areas around Portland are doing. Generally speaking, with some exceptions, EJ's prediction of exurbs falling first, then suburbs, then central city has been true for Portland so far. Reading left to right, once you get past Clark County, WA, those areas to the right are hours away from the metro... along the coast or out along the Columbia Gorge. Some of those counties already have over two years of supply.

Wow! Looks like its worth waiting a wee bit longer before jumping in to buy that wind surfing hideaway at Hood River though...:cool: