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Spartacus
05-20-08, 03:52 PM
Peak oilers from the 1970s were predicting peak oil in the late 90s.

I find little evidence of almost anyone attributing high petroleum prices in the late 70s to peak oil arguments from the late 1970s, and good evidence that those who made that "prediction" (long after the prices rose) were a rarity. From the best of my recollection, even the Club of Rome did not claim the late 70s episode as depletion/peak -they were predicting depletion at 2020 or later (edit: my memory is confirmed in the last link below).

From what I can remember & what I can find the general concensus in the late 70s was that "there's plenty of petroleum, BUT its price is being artificially inflated by greedy arabs and the insane ayatolla".

the last alleged episode of "peak oil" (people attributing high price to depletion) was
1. extremely very short lived

2. the peak oilers mostly came AFTER the prices had risen enormously (in the current episode, the peak oilers were at work well before the prices started rising - I suppose in Hubbert's case, 60 years before the current price rise)

3. and the view was rare. There was NO group of experienced scientists, geologists and investment bankers writing books and articles about it. There was no group of CEOs out telling the world that oil discoveries were becoming smaller, more difficult and harder to produce economically.

http://www.oildepletion.com/

>>>
At the time my findings were innovative, and contradicted the generalized idea that fossil reserves were plentiful. It was an era when we suffered a terrible oil crisis (1978). Jimmy Carter was President, and the "crazy" Ayatollah of Iran was looked at as the only culprit for all that pain.
<<<<<<<

That "peak oil" experience has no parallel to the current one.
Forget about matching on 4 points - I can't find one point that matches up.
Claiming that the current peak oil phenomenon has happened before does not look kosher to me.

http://www.energybulletin.net/19773.html

http://72.14.205.104/search?q=cache:ClDiC9G-4tMJ:www.peakoil.net/IWOOD2002/ppt/UppsalaRB.doc+%22club+of+rome%22+%22limits+to+grow th%22+%22oil+depletion%22&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=ca



FMS?

Andreuccio
05-21-08, 05:45 PM
Peak oilers from the 1970s were predicting peak oil in the late 90s.

I find little evidence of almost anyone attributing high petroleum prices in the late 70s to peak oil arguments from the late 1970s, and good evidence that those who made that "prediction" (long after the prices rose) were a rarity. From the best of my recollection, even the Club of Rome did not claim the late 70s episode as depletion/peak -they were predicting depletion at 2020 or later (edit: my memory is confirmed in the last link below).

From what I can remember & what I can find the general concensus in the late 70s was that "there's plenty of petroleum, BUT its price is being artificially inflated by greedy arabs and the insane ayatolla".

the last alleged episode of "peak oil" (people attributing high price to depletion) was
1. extremely very short lived

2. the peak oilers mostly came AFTER the prices had risen enormously (in the current episode, the peak oilers were at work well before the prices started rising - I suppose in Hubbert's case, 60 years before the current price rise)

3. and the view was rare. There was NO group of experienced scientists, geologists and investment bankers writing books and articles about it. There was no group of CEOs out telling the world that oil discoveries were becoming smaller, more difficult and harder to produce economically.

http://www.oildepletion.com/

>>>
At the time my findings were innovative, and contradicted the generalized idea that fossil reserves were plentiful. It was an era when we suffered a terrible oil crisis (1978). Jimmy Carter was President, and the "crazy" Ayatollah of Iran was looked at as the only culprit for all that pain.
<<<<<<<

That "peak oil" experience has no parallel to the current one.
Forget about matching on 4 points - I can't find one point that matches up.
Claiming that the current peak oil phenomenon has happened before does not look kosher to me.

http://www.energybulletin.net/19773.html

http://72.14.205.104/search?q=cache:ClDiC9G-4tMJ:www.peakoil.net/IWOOD2002/ppt/UppsalaRB.doc+%22club+of+rome%22+%22limits+to+grow th%22+%22oil+depletion%22&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=ca



FMS?

I remember reading somewhere that one of the precipitating factors of the '70s oil crisis was that oil production within the United States peaked about then, and that this had been predicted by Hubbert. As I recall, Hubbert had predicted a worldwide peak in the mid '90s, but conservation due to the '70s crisis forestalled the worldwide peak by about 10 years, bringing us up to where we are today.

Sorry I don't have a link, much less any actual data, to back this up. :(

Spartacus
05-21-08, 09:16 PM
You're completely correct - Hubbert predicted in the 50s (IIRC) US production would peak in the 70s.

AND, almost no one blamed the high petroleum prices during the shocks on "peak oil"

My point was, there was no "peak oil" situation in the late 70s that is comparable to the current situation.

The same kind of writing and publicity and argument from "official" (not "official" from the government, but in terms of believable, credible) sources did not happen in the 70s. One cannot accurately say "this boy cried the peak oil wolf in the 70s".

IMHO, the peak oil wolf was NOT invoked in any substantial way in that earlier crisis.


I remember reading somewhere that one of the precipitating factors of the '70s oil crisis was that oil production within the United States peaked about then, and that this had been predicted by Hubbert. As I recall, Hubbert had predicted a worldwide peak in the mid '90s, but conservation due to the '70s crisis forestalled the worldwide peak by about 10 years, bringing us up to where we are today.

Sorry I don't have a link, much less any actual data, to back this up. :(

Shakespear
05-22-08, 04:29 AM
The wolf was successfully chased off.

Here you will see that "smart" people had the information that a problem with oil/gas will eventually happen. We have no clue what the discussions were and who said what. However this article makes it clear that the right kind of data was being looked at and the right trends were being analyzed to be able to look forward and realize that eventually we will have a problem.

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~twod/oil-ns/articles/for_aff_aikins_oil_crisis_apr1973.pdf (http://www-personal.umich.edu/%7Etwod/oil-ns/articles/for_aff_aikins_oil_crisis_apr1973.pdf)

Why they didn't react? Your guess is as good as my.

Spartacus
05-22-08, 05:54 PM
the price of petroleum and other commodities dropped.

Without a current need to do something "the people" and especially the politicians regularly take their eyes off the target.

There was also a well planned campaign of disinformation from some right wing think tanks to discredit some of the projections. This campaign managed to convince people that the Club of Rome had been completely debunked - mainly by lying - claiming "Limits to growth" (LtG) predicted the world would run out of stuff in the 80s. This was a lie because LtG predicted the shortages starting 2010 to 2030.


The wolf was successfully chased off.

Here you will see that "smart" people had the information that a problem with oil/gas will eventually happen. We have no clue what the discussions were and who said what. However this article makes it clear that the right kind of data was being looked at and the right trends were being analyzed to be able to look forward and realize that eventually we will have a problem.

http://www-personal.umich.edu/~twod/oil-ns/articles/for_aff_aikins_oil_crisis_apr1973.pdf (http://www-personal.umich.edu/%7Etwod/oil-ns/articles/for_aff_aikins_oil_crisis_apr1973.pdf)

Why they didn't react? Your guess is as good as my.