Any agriculture people here?

[phirang]

I'm looking for some arguments regarding the constraints on food supply chain. I met a director from Bunge(BG) who said the only new capacity globally will come from brazil and perhaps ukraine/russia once their distribution improves...

I've been following potash and natural gas prices, and it seems clear to me that those costs plus the high cost of diesel will insure high variable costs. Is it that plus the constraint in capacity and distribution bottlenecks that's causing the prices to soar?

[GRG55]

I'm looking for some arguments regarding the constraints on food supply chain. I met a director from Bunge(BG) who said the only new capacity globally will come from brazil and perhaps ukraine/russia once their distribution improves...

I've been following potash and natural gas prices, and it seems clear to me that those costs plus the high cost of diesel will insure high variable costs. Is it that plus the constraint in capacity and distribution bottlenecks that's causing the prices to soar?


Fiiiiiiiinster. You will never get a better set up than this...:D :eek: :D :p

[rros]

Bunge & Born may have a "Brazil bias" for a reason.

There are some large projects in the pipeline in other countries -rumors- like the 500 mill pork production plant by Soros in Argentina. But there are also many headwinds down there... cattle is in decline as pastures are being recycled to soy and other crops. At the end of the day, there may be some truth in that Brazil is the only country in the region that may be the beneficiary of ag. investments down the road, specially if Argentina continues to refuse to negotiate with american bondholders.

[BlackVoid]

I would invest in fertilizer producers - this is the toughest bottleneck for agri. I am actually planning to do this pretty soon.

[c1ue]

Are you at all concerned about possible government intervention in agriculture? i.e. nationalized/subsidized agriculture infrastructure such as transport and fertilizers? and tractors?

[GRG55]

Are you at all concerned about possible government intervention in agriculture? i.e. nationalized/subsidized agriculture infrastructure such as transport and fertilizers? and tractors?

I'm waiting for Obama to announce a windfall profits tax on potash producers...:rolleyes:

[phirang]

Heh, Obama will be suckling so deeply from the fat yet scabby teat of the oligarchy that he'd put his own children on sale at the Timbuktu slave market if they so desired.

Then again, perhaps the brokerages want that...

[Spartacus]

"agriculture people" ???


I eat a lot

and sometimes I smell like a farmer

So am I included?

Anyway, I was in rural northern India last January through March. Inflation has been incredible. The price of farmland has multiplied by 5 over the last 10 years.

New technology (bigger farms, fewer people per acre, western style fertilization (petrochemicals) has been making more inroads.

Fertilizer and mechanization? Seems to me they will use more in the future, a LOT more, provided they can afford it.


>>> Are you at all concerned about possible government intervention in agriculture? i.e. nationalized/subsidized

You didn't ask me, or about India, but as long as I'm here ...

The government seemed ineffectual, inept and prone to do unhelpful things. Much worse than here, but in the areas I was in the government was smaller, so maybe did less damage.

Strange thing about northern India (Punjab, Himachal, UP) - no forest in the farming areas. None. I could be in a car for hours and hours, driving 200 kilometres and see 10 isolated stands of trees, squares of maybe 50 to 200 metres per side. The whole area was deforested hundreds of years ago for agriculture. basically all buildings (housing and commercial) are steel reinforced concrete and brick.

There were more brick kilns scattered all over the farmland, sometimes one every 15 minutes of driving than stands of trees.

[touchring]

There were more brick kilns scattered all over the farmland, sometimes one every 15 minutes of driving than stands of trees.


Try using google earth, zoom in anywhere in india, you will always see square and rectangles of rice fields. The only forests are maybe the nature reserves, but even these are occupied with people.