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atreyu42
05-10-08, 03:39 PM
Hi.

In the hypothetic scenario that hyperinflation takes place around 2010 (http://www.shadowstats.com/article/292) --now that EJ admitted it can happen (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4009#post35537)-- and, maybe worse, a USSR-style collapse of the US (http://survivingpeakoil.com/preview.php?id=soviet_lessons); how should I prepare to flee the US (http://www.boingboing.net/2006/10/23/getting-out-your-gui.html) and when should I leave?

I am a EU citizen who just arrived to California and I'm waiting for my green card. My wife is a Hong Kong born Chinese-American with double passport. So we can live in the US, the EU and China, including Hong Kong. I am a software engineer.

If hyperinflation takes place, where should I go? Is the EU and China going to suffer because of this recession/depression? What sign of the economy should I wait for before deciding to leave?

Where should I put my money meanwhile? Gold ETFs?

c1ue
05-11-08, 02:10 PM
Europe's currency will hold value better than America's.

HK is bad because of the dollar tie; it will erode over time but why bother?

Gold in Europe is completely different - that is not a bad option.

touchring
05-12-08, 09:40 AM
Canada? in times of inflation, the producer wins.

metalman
05-12-08, 09:41 AM
Canada? in times of inflation, the producer wins.

canada's numero uno on my list.

touchring
05-12-08, 09:42 AM
The more money ben throws out of the helicopter, the higher oil prices go. OPEC led by saudi arabia will see to that.

c1ue
05-12-08, 01:58 PM
Several problems with Canada:

1) No policy to protect foreigners' money
2) Too small to resist the US should annexation be contemplated
3) Socialist nation - any value anywhere can be taken for the public good at any time
4) Eh? Aye? :p

Nicolasd
05-12-08, 08:59 PM
lol c1ue

Aren't those some of the very reasons why Canada is still above water today and USA is declining (irremediably ? ) over time ?

c1ue
05-13-08, 05:44 PM
Actually, the real reason Canada is doing well now is that they have an export driven economy.

The social system works simply due to the fact that the exports provide a lot of cash to subsidize the internal populace.

Mexico would be in the same boat if their oil wasn't so clearly running out - and the past revenues similarly having gone straight into the elite's pockets.

Nicolasd
05-13-08, 09:26 PM
That's true .....but it is not all.....

-You can also add responsible spending (balanced or surplus budgets for over a decade )
-A very humble defense budget and army spending.
-Federal debt/GDP ratio going down as a consequence.
-An aggresive personal taxation system for the "haves"
-World class and accessible (low cost) higher education system
-Low corruption rate (unlike Mexico).
-Last but not least: Ease of starting business (tax rates/laws and regulations environement)

Those all add up to the overall equation and explain current situation.....
Jeez, better stop here... I feel like a used car salesman.....and it belongs to EJ's thread !:rolleyes:

metalman
05-13-08, 09:58 PM
That's true .....but it is not all.....

-You can also responsible spending (balanced or surplus budgets for over a decade )
-A very humble defense budget and army spending.
-Federal debt/PIB ratio going down as a consequence.
-An aggresive personal taxation system for the "haves"
-World class and accessible (low cost) higher education system
-Low corruption rate (unlike Mexico).
-Last but not least: Ease of starting business (tax rates/laws and regulations environement)

Those all add up to the overall equation and explain current situation.....
Jeez, better stop here... I feel like a used car salesman.....and it belongs to EJ's thread !:rolleyes:

ah, where is this mythic utopia of which you speak? i am there in a heartbeat!

GRG55
05-13-08, 10:58 PM
Several problems with Canada:

1) No policy to protect foreigners' money
2) Too small to resist the US should annexation be contemplated
3) Socialist nation - any value anywhere can be taken for the public good at any time
4) Eh? Aye? :p

I used to think the same thing. Until this happened just south of the border. Now which is the socialist nation?



Justices Affirm Property Seizures



5-4 Ruling Backs Forced Sales for Private Development




By Charles Lane


Washington Post Staff Writer


Friday, June 24, 2005; Page A01



<NITF>


The Supreme Court ruled yesterday that local governments may force property owners to sell out and make way for private economic development when officials decide it would benefit the public, even if the property is not blighted and the new project's success is not guaranteed.



http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/06/23/AR2005062300783.html</NITF>

santafe2
05-14-08, 12:35 AM
Hi.

In the hypothetic scenario that hyperinflation takes place around 2010 (http://www.shadowstats.com/article/292) --now that EJ admitted it can happen (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4009#post35537)-- and, maybe worse, a USSR-style collapse of the US (http://survivingpeakoil.com/preview.php?id=soviet_lessons); how should I prepare to flee the US (http://www.boingboing.net/2006/10/23/getting-out-your-gui.html) and when should I leave?

I am a EU citizen who just arrived to California and I'm waiting for my green card. My wife is a Hong Kong born Chinese-American with double passport. So we can live in the US, the EU and China, including Hong Kong. I am a software engineer.

If hyperinflation takes place, where should I go? Is the EU and China going to suffer because of this recession/depression? What sign of the economy should I wait for before deciding to leave?

Where should I put my money meanwhile? Gold ETFs?

Politically and socially, we're very close to the bottom in the US. Economically, we have a way to go but the chance of hyper-inflation in the US is almost non existent.

My very loose and indefensible corollary: It's possible a significant meteor will strike the earth in the next 5 years, but I'm not going to plan my life around that possibility any more than I'll plan for hyper-inflation within the last world super power. I'd never say that either are impossible, only that a smart person would not plan their life around that eventuality.

Let's see what happens between now and 2020, then we can revisit this issue. If I'm wrong about my first statement, I might be reviewing your concerns then.

Since your a software engineer most likely living in an urban center in California, you may want to turn your economic paranoia to thoughts of a pandemic. I suspect that might be a more real possibility. How would you insulate yourself from that?

Andreuccio
05-14-08, 01:54 AM
ah, where is this mythic utopia of which you speak? i am there in a heartbeat!

Look no further. It's been right under our noses all the time:

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3665

In addition to all the positives listed by Nicolasd, there is no housing bubble. Prices will rise forever. Plus, all the children are above average.

touchring
05-14-08, 03:16 AM
Since your a software engineer most likely living in an urban center in California, you may want to turn your economic paranoia to thoughts of a pandemic. I suspect that might be a more real possibility. How would you insulate yourself from that?


The world is already overdued for a pandemic. The likelihood of it happening before 2020 is high from a statistical point.

As the New Orleans experience shows, you'll be stuck if you don't have hard cash on hand. The credit cards don't work and the pawn shops are not open.

Nicolasd
05-14-08, 07:46 AM
Metalman, just leave your guns behind you and pledge to learn french.We have an empty room in the basement with a full bathroom.If you are fit to cut the grass and shovel snow , you have a new home !:D

metalman
05-14-08, 12:35 PM
Metalman, just leave your guns behind you and pledge to learn french.We have an empty room in the basement with a full bathroom.If you are fit to cut the grass and shovel snow , you have a new home !:D

that's very kind of you. thanks for the invite. i tried to learn french in high school but never got the hang of it.

c1ue
05-14-08, 01:59 PM
Politically and socially, we're very close to the bottom in the US. Economically, we have a way to go but the chance of hyper-inflation in the US is almost non existent.

My very loose and indefensible corollary: It's possible a significant meteor will strike the earth in the next 5 years, but I'm not going to plan my life around that possibility any more than I'll plan for hyper-inflation within the last world super power. I'd never say that either are impossible, only that a smart person would not plan their life around that eventuality.


SF,

I hope you're right.

On the other hand, the real question is not what your feelings are.

The real question is can this situation happen?

And if it can happen, how it will affect you?

To paraphrase Pascal: if the possibility of hyperinflation is 1%, and your life going to hell is 100% in that instance, then you should protect at least some of your assets.

santafe2
05-14-08, 06:15 PM
SF,

I hope you're right.

On the other hand, the real question is not what your feelings are.

The real question is can this situation happen?

And if it can happen, how it will affect you?

To paraphrase Pascal: if the possibility of hyperinflation is 1%, and your life going to hell is 100% in that instance, then you should protect at least some of your assets.

Yes, of course you're correct but should this event occur, it will send signals well ahead of it's arrival. It will be more hurricane than earthquake. More meteor strikes earth than pandemic in its approach. There will be time to more fully prepare if one is not debt ridden, leveraged or otherwise encumbered with things that will be without value. It is good practice to live this way now.

If I may prescribe:
Move to a more rural location
Give up as much of your transportation needs as feasible
Buy land with water rights
Build a super insulated home
Get your power from your own energy source, (PV, etc.)
Learn basic farming and food storage.
Raise chickens and maybe a goat
Learn some basic rules for medical care
Cultivate a close group of friends with similar points of view
--- and finally ---
Build a home for metalman and his family - your going to need protection..LOL!

Or, one could do what a lot of other people will do, hunker down or join a mob. Bring me a pitchfork!

Some of the very rich to super rich are now doing some of the above. In California the western Sierras are being dotted with walled off-grid mini-mansions. These will work for the a-social, non-social or anti-social sort that see this possibility as a me against the rabble hoard situation. I'm sure companies like Blackwater are busy marketing security to this group. Now that I think of it, I'm surprised a major insurance company hasn't already contracted with Blackwater so they can sell these services. This should be a great business for them as it will probably never come to pass.

Paranoia can sure be an expensive disease.

GRG55
05-15-08, 10:32 AM
Yes, of course you're correct but should this event occur, it will send signals well ahead of it's arrival. It will be more hurricane than earthquake. More meteor strikes earth than pandemic in its approach. There will be time to more fully prepare if one is not debt ridden, leveraged or otherwise encumbered with things that will be without value. It is good practice to live this way now.

If I may prescribe:
Move to a more rural location
Give up as much of your transportation needs as feasible
Buy land with water rights
Build a super insulated home
Get your power from your own energy source, (PV, etc.)
Learn basic farming and food storage.
Raise chickens and maybe a goat
Learn some basic rules for medical care
Cultivate a close group of friends with similar points of view
--- and finally ---
Build a home for metalman and his family - your going to need protection..LOL!

Or, one could do what a lot of other people will do, hunker down or join a mob. Bring me a pitchfork!

Some of the very rich to super rich are now doing some of the above. In California the western Sierras are being dotted with walled off-grid mini-mansions. These will work for the a-social, non-social or anti-social sort that see this possibility as a me against the rabble hoard situation. I'm sure companies like Blackwater are busy marketing security to this group. Now that I think of it, I'm surprised a major insurance company hasn't already contracted with Blackwater so they can sell these services. This should be a great business for them as it will probably never come to pass.

Paranoia can sure be an expensive disease.

Here's another approach for the "creative paranoid":

Get your money out of your name (use an offshore trust if necessary);
Learn to dress down (no more dinner jackets, ok);
Learn to paint or sculpt (or learn to fake it really well);
Learn to read and enjoy poetry (or learn to fake it really well);
Move to an art colony like Santa Fe.

I understand it's a lovely place to live and nobody expects artists to actually have anything of value, so you don't need to live behind a wall to be safe from the coming roaming hordes. Keep your hand gun close by in one of your hollowed out sculptures though, just in case...:D

c1ue
05-15-08, 02:51 PM
SF,

It is possible to time exit from a hyper-inflationary situation, but I want to point out that the exits will all be crowded.

Getting out as the first boat person is nice, but isn't so nice as leaving when the leaving is good.

santafe2
05-16-08, 01:07 AM
Here's another approach for the "creative paranoid":

Get your money out of your name (use an offshore trust if necessary);
Learn to dress down (no more dinner jackets, ok);
Learn to paint or sculpt (or learn to fake it really well);
Learn to read and enjoy poetry (or learn to fake it really well);
Move to an art colony like Santa Fe.

I understand it's a lovely place to live and nobody expects artists to actually have anything of value, so you don't need to live behind a wall to be safe from the coming roaming hordes. Keep your hand gun close by in one of your hollowed out sculptures though, just in case...:D

Thanks GRG, I've always felt a bit too Boy Scoutish, linear and even preachy with my 'be careful' admonitions and aim at life but you've pointed out that other iTulipers, (even a smart one), might see my approach as a bit too arty with a dash of chicken little. I must have been flattered that anyone would think I had the least bit of any these traits so I forwarded your post to my daughter at college as she's a good arbiter of anything related to my shortcomings and I have to tell you, the results are not pretty.

I'm told that the day I read a poem before I look at the some idiotic chart will be the dawn of a new era. However, your post has earned you a mud hut on our little piece of land should the worst come to pass.

santafe2
05-16-08, 01:54 AM
SF,

It is possible to time exit from a hyper-inflationary situation, but I want to point out that the exits will all be crowded.

Getting out as the first boat person is nice, but isn't so nice as leaving when the leaving is good.

It will be smart to align yourself with clear exits, crowded or not. If this hyper inflation issue proves to be real, which I seriously doubt, those aligned with the exits will get out fine.

As for the boat person reference, it's probably not a good analogy but I'll go with it. You'll want to be the last boat person on the last boat without a leak but for now, I'll continue to rent boats to people wanting out too early.

c1ue
05-16-08, 07:01 PM
SF,

From direct interactions with 'boat people' from Vietnam, Russia (1996), Argentina, Russia (1917), China (1949) and Mexico - the 95%+ consensus is that it would have been better to get out first.

The ones who got out first got the best government aid, the first pick of jobs, the widest range of opportunities in every possible way.

The ones who got out last got the shaft.

There is an exception - if you're a high position official in the government.

Even those (formerly) with money agree: having money doesn't itself mean squat; at the end your money only matters as a ratio to other's money. Those with lots beat those with little, but there are plenty of those with more.

phirang
05-16-08, 08:41 PM
when people start hoarding and walling off their property, then is the time to look for bargains...

santafe2
05-17-08, 12:03 AM
SF,

From direct interactions with 'boat people' from Vietnam, Russia (1996), Argentina, Russia (1917), China (1949) and Mexico - the 95%+ consensus is that it would have been better to get out first.

The ones who got out first got the best government aid, the first pick of jobs, the widest range of opportunities in every possible way.

The ones who got out last got the shaft.

There is an exception - if you're a high position official in the government.

Even those (formerly) with money agree: having money doesn't itself mean squat; at the end your money only matters as a ratio to other's money. Those with lots beat those with little, but there are plenty of those with more.

As I said, I think your analogy is flawed. This is no time to head for the boat.

GRG55
05-17-08, 02:35 PM
Thanks GRG, I've always felt a bit too Boy Scoutish, linear and even preachy with my 'be careful' admonitions and aim at life but you've pointed out that other iTulipers, (even a smart one), might see my approach as a bit too arty with a dash of chicken little. I must have been flattered that anyone would think I had the least bit of any these traits so I forwarded your post to my daughter at college as she's a good arbiter of anything related to my shortcomings and I have to tell you, the results are not pretty.

I'm told that the day I read a poem before I look at the some idiotic chart will be the dawn of a new era. However, your post has earned you a mud hut on our little piece of land should the worst come to pass.

My post was as much a jab at my too serious self also. As a gear (engineer) such passtimes as poetry and painting are just as remote an outcome for me as you indicate for yourself. I am much happier building something or, even better, taking something apart to see how it works and leaving the parts strewn about forever after (which is what I would probably do with a handgun)...;)

New Mexico is one of the few places in the USA that I have not yet visited, and the Sante Fe landscapes I have seen in pictures do look uniquely lovely, so appreciate the adobe hut escape option. I can think of much worse places to hang out during "The Catastrophe".

GRG55
05-17-08, 02:46 PM
when people start hoarding and walling off their property, then is the time to look for bargains...

Like this?

Gated communities more popular, and not just for the rich
By Haya El Nasser, USA TODAY
NEW ORLEANS To find refuge from the bawdy French Quarter and the faded elegance of downtown, the wealthy here live in gated suburban communities with names that whisper exclusivity: English Turn, Barkley Estates and Oakland Plantation.
Six-foot brick walls and iron fences encircle these enclaves of luxury homes. Electronic gates and 24-hour security guards keep outsiders away. The streets are spotless, the landscaping lush...
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2002-12-15-gated-usat_x.htm


Tucson Gated Communities
http://www.soldtucson.com/page16.html?gclid=CL-MkfaXrpMCFQo1QgodekuXnw


Most Expensive Gated Communities In America 2004
http://www.forbes.com/2004/11/19/cx_sc_1119home.html

...:rolleyes:

phirang
05-17-08, 06:07 PM
Like this?

Gated communities more popular, and not just for the rich
By Haya El Nasser, USA TODAY
NEW ORLEANS To find refuge from the bawdy French Quarter and the faded elegance of downtown, the wealthy here live in gated suburban communities with names that whisper exclusivity: English Turn, Barkley Estates and Oakland Plantation.
Six-foot brick walls and iron fences encircle these enclaves of luxury homes. Electronic gates and 24-hour security guards keep outsiders away. The streets are spotless, the landscaping lush...
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2002-12-15-gated-usat_x.htm


Tucson Gated Communities
http://www.soldtucson.com/page16.html?gclid=CL-MkfaXrpMCFQo1QgodekuXnw


Most Expensive Gated Communities In America 2004
http://www.forbes.com/2004/11/19/cx_sc_1119home.html

...:rolleyes:





come on now, it's not a buyers market yet if they still have a functioning electric grid! diesel should be airlifted in and the houses should all run solar stills, with north korean mercenaries guarding the properties in their second-hand polish tanks: now THAT's value investing!

c1ue
05-19-08, 01:16 AM
I'd suggest the foothills of California along the border between Northern and Southern Cal for a retreat.

Idaho? Montana? Too friggin' cold, hard to raise food there. Then there's things like salt and fruit.

Midwest? Man cannot live on corn alone. Plus the prairie is classic Mongol invasion scenario - security is impossible.

East Coast? Too many people and too dense.

Oregon isn't bad either, but a little too wet.

Got to think in 1800s terms: 500 miles distance without major roads is enough barrier in a largely unpopulated area.

Andreuccio
05-19-08, 10:59 AM
I'd suggest the foothills of California along the border between Northern and Southern Cal for a retreat.

Idaho? Montana? Too friggin' cold, hard to raise food there.



You're forgetting to factor in global warming. Pocatello will be the new Fresno. :D

c1ue
05-22-08, 04:04 PM
Ouch I wouldn't wish being Fresno on any place.

But the CA foothills are good for that too - just move further up in elevation...

*T*
05-26-08, 02:27 PM
Iceland:
- post-oil economy
- fertile farmland if global warming unfreezes
- no standing army
- happy people (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/may/18/iceland)
- literate (half the population have written a book)
- socially-minded (if you like that sort of thing)

krakknisse
05-26-08, 04:23 PM
Iceland:
- post-oil economy
- fertile farmland if global warming unfreezes
- no standing army
- happy people (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/may/18/iceland)
- literate (half the population have written a book)
- socially-minded (if you like that sort of thing)

Don't mean to pour cold water over enthusiastic ideas. But Iceland is very, very small. The phone books are ordered by first names! It is a NATO country, but has no army or air force (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_of_Iceland). They have a defence "understanding" with Norway, but no treaty. The US withdrew rather abruptly. Air protection was given to it for a time by the small air force of Norway, until France took over (http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/blogs/defense/index.jsp?plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3A27ec4a53-dcc8-42d0-bd3a-01329aef79a7Post%3A92965f9e-6a87-4872-9387-9f6b02d48f1d). Essentially, it will be (more of a) "vassal state" if things heat up. Financially, it is on the rocks:
Scandinavians unite to end Iceland's financial chaos (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&grid=&xml=/money/2008/05/17/cniceland117.xml)

It is on the outskirts of everything - basically it is just a fishing economy of 250,000 people. The one thing it has going for it is that over 70% of energy is renewable.

Except for its abundant hydro-electric and geothermal power, Iceland lacks natural resources; historically its economy depended heavily on the fishing industry, which still provides almost 40% of export earnings and employs 8% of the work force. The economy is vulnerable to declining fish stocks and drops in world prices for its main material exports: fish and fish products, aluminium, and ferrosilicon.

If you think long term (as I think you are), then you might want to consider the Laki eruption (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laki) in 1783:

The consequences for Iceland were catastrophic. An estimated 25% of the population[4] died in the famine and fluorine poisoning after the fissure eruptions ceased. Around 80% of sheep, 50% of cattle and 50% of horses died because of dental and skeletal fluorosis from the 8 million tons of fluorine that were released.


I'm not being critical of Iceland - from my part of the world we view them very favorably. Just trying to inject a dose of realism.

c1ue
05-26-08, 05:05 PM
More importantly, I'm REALLY unsure if Iceland can survive without imports.

Certainly the existing standard of living could not be maintained as Iceland simply doesn't have the resources.

Although there has only been one actual famine, it would have been interesting to see if more might have occurred if there hadn't been two plagues clearing the board earlier.

krakknisse
05-29-08, 03:24 PM
Iceland just experienced an earthquake, magnitude 6.1 on the Richter scale. Story on CNN (http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/05/29/iceland.earthquake/index.html).

Tynes said he has been speaking to residents of the towns closest to the epicenter. "They said they thought the world was coming to an end," he said. "They thought they were going to die." There have been no reports of homes collapsing, as most homes in Iceland are built to withstand earthquakes, he said.