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Mega
05-03-08, 02:16 PM
Its simple, and yes being a dumb-ass i don't know the answer, but rather than being a BIGGER dumb-ass and NOT ask it i shall.

WHY IS THE $ NOT FALLING BUT CLIMBING IN VALUE?

Mike

Finster
05-03-08, 02:38 PM
Its simple, and yes being a dumb-ass i don't know the answer, but rather than being a BIGGER dumb-ass and NOT ask it i shall.

WHY IS THE $ NOT FALLING BUT CLIMBING IN VALUE?

Mike

Same thing as Fred (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3958) said with regard to gold.


... Within the long gold and silver trade are players that create price movements that at times are counter to the long term trend and at other times exaggerate the long term trend. It is our position that the pullbacks created by the short term counter trends are buying opportunities for long investors and for traders the peaks of exaggerated short term price movements are selling opportunities. More importantly it is critical to distinguish between the kind of price volatility that funds can create with leverage versus the kind of price volatility we will see at the end of the long term PM inflation trade in place since 2001...

That same logic applies to any number of markets. Remember it once, use it many times.

Mega
05-03-08, 05:50 PM
You mean you don't know either!
Mike

Contemptuous
05-03-08, 07:20 PM
Miker - The reason the dollar is not falling but rather climbing - in one sense anyway - is because you bought into the "buy gold and profit from the falling dollar" trade LATE, and the falling dollar is behaving according to the fact that it had been falling for a very long time before you bought into this trade, and now needs t have a good long corrective rally. You only are "noticing" it because you are indignant that the dollar not continue to obediently fall now that you have gotten all saddled up and ready to ride in pursuite of profits from it. It would be better to stop thinking in terms of "the dollars' fall must follow Mega", and start thinking more in terms of "Mega must accomodate the whims of the dollar's trajectory, which may do something dollar-short people don't wish it to do, even for a long time". You came to the party late - now the dollar's fall has to take a good long break. That's implying that the reason half the world does not make money from investments is that investments sometimes can keep you waiting a long time. Live with it, investments are not a christmas tree.

Mega
05-03-08, 07:40 PM
Oh, you mean its stopped to have a pint, before falling again?

Schiff sez "Got Gold?"
Am not selling!
Mike

Jim Nickerson
05-03-08, 09:02 PM
Oh, you mean its stopped to have a pint, before falling again?

Schiff sez "Got Gold?"
Am not selling!
Mike

If you believe what a lot of people are saying, yes, Mike, you have it correct, but Luke's point is worth considering that it is possible that the dollar may go up for some time--months or longer, who knows? You must admit the Euro is very high and the ECU may not be able to live with it being so high--my simple opinion is the ECU can't live with it so high. The Euro comprises something I believe on the order of 50% of the dollar index (http://www.akmos.com/main/forex/usdx.html), so if the Euro alone decreases because of intervention--lowering of rates over there or for whatever other reasons, the bonar is going to get stronger. Patience is important, and I sure don't always have it.

*T*
05-04-08, 07:38 AM
Its simple, and yes being a dumb-ass i don't know the answer, but rather than being a BIGGER dumb-ass and NOT ask it i shall.

WHY IS THE $ NOT FALLING BUT CLIMBING IN VALUE?

Mike

Because the world went mad a long time ago.

Starving Steve
05-04-08, 01:39 PM
Its simple, and yes being a dumb-ass i don't know the answer, but rather than being a BIGGER dumb-ass and NOT ask it i shall.

WHY IS THE $ NOT FALLING BUT CLIMBING IN VALUE?

Mike

Dear Mike:|

Where else am I to put money except for gold? And as I have have written here before: "Gold at $900 is not the same gold investment as gold at $300 or $400 per ounce." (The newcomers to gold haven't learned this lesson yet, but they will.)

Oil is just like gold, and oil at $120 is no investment anymore. Maybe oil will go to $200 --- I think it will---but oil may go to $60/barrel just as easily.

I certainly can not put money into Yen or beaver bucks when the central banks are not co-operating with me and giving me a rate of return comensurate with the effort and risk. So what does that leave me: Brazilean money?

Five destroyed currencies, and I should run and reward the Latin American central bankers with investment on their sixth generation currencies in Brazil, Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, and Peru? ( I think I will pass on this bargain. )

So that leaves the U.S. bonar by default. The U.S. has not destroyed all of the bonar yet.

My hope is that when the Demos get back into power, the FOMC is going to be reigned-in.... Perhaps Bernankee will be sent home to Princeton to retire. And good riddance!

MLM
05-04-08, 03:07 PM
Although I agree with your sentiments on gold and oil, there is one central bank intent on being less cooperative than all the others -- and that is yours. Come hell or high water they are going to inflate. They have no other choice, and a change in administration isn't going to make any difference at all. Nominal median wages have got to rise to the point that homes become affordable again. If not, the wheels will come off completely.

Starving Steve
05-04-08, 03:25 PM
I think just the opposite: Prices need to be cut and cut drastically on homes. Otherwise, the wheels come off of the bus--- which they have done. ( The California real estate bus is sitting on the side of the road without wheels now. )

So, U.S. dollars just might come in handy on a vulture deal in real estate. Meanwhile, I keep some U.S. bonars in stoxx that I believe in: stoxx in companies that really do DO something--- like General Electric because GE builds atomic power plants, turbines, medical equipment, and other useful things.

And in Canada, I sit in oil and gas trusts and scoop the cash-flow. Gosh, this is fun!

Any big drop in gold, and then I will go back into gold. I got out at $907 in winter, but I want the market to reward my efforts. (So far, it has not.)