PDA

View Full Version : Energy and Money Part II: Can We Repeal the Laws of Thermodynamics?


FRED
09-02-06, 08:25 PM
http://www.itulip.com/forums/../images/oil_barrel.gifEnergy and Money Part II: Can We Repeal the Laws of Thermodynamics?

We have plenty of oil. But we're running out of cheap oil and there are no cheap alternatives.

In Greenspan's view (http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/200410152/default.htm), market forces will manage a smooth transition from oil to new sources of energy, just as they did for the transition from wood to coal and from coal to oil. This is sophistry. Instead, the world will soon be forced back to a time when a lot more work, in a thermodynamic sense, was required to heat homes and fuel transport.

Part II of Energy and Money is an ode to the lowly liquid, petroleum. Unappreciated and misunderstood by the average consumer. Exploited by politicians. Maligned by environmentalists. Gasoline by the gallon, petrol by the pint, diesel by the drum. Smelly and explosive, refined from crude -- a disparaging term -- we cheerfully pour the stuff into our cars, trucks, trains and planes and burn it as carelessly as dormatory furniture at a frat party bon fire. But what a marvel these fluids are, as they go up in smoke, these sloshing chemical batteries, packing an unimaginable energy punch in a small convenient liquid manufactured and packaged by mother nature.

Liquid solar energy, collected over millions of years, converted by photosynthesis into the carbohydrates we know as plants, and then by physical and chemical forces over millennia into the hydrocarbon fluid we call petroleum. Sweet and sour, but only in refiners’ parlance. None suitable for drinking. Unlike ethanol, good for politicians and martinis, together, but like all manufactured oil alternatives – so-called “renewable” energy – a poor substitute for the real thing, like a blind date for a long lost love, and nearly useless for reducing dependence on our fossil fuel friends.

First of all, we use a lot of oil. Mother nature spent hundreds of millions of years to nurture liquid fossil fuels into the liquid batteries we burn but it’s only taken us a little over a century to use about half of them up. The best half. The asparagus tips. The ice cream off the cone before the rest drips into your hand on a hot summer day. The first ten minutes of Thanksgiving with the in-laws.

It’s all down hill from here.

http://www.itulip.com/images/oil1.jpg

World Oil Consumption 2007

We burn oil at the rate of 921,000,000 gallons per day in the USA. Just to drive our cars we use 320,500,000 gallons of gasoline from sunrise to sunset, vroom through 3,700 gallons a minute, coast to coast.

Peak Oil. Whether you believe that an End of the World crisis is coming or not, there’s general consensus among experts that all the oil that nature provided us that was easy and thus cheap to dig out of the ground, no matter how clever we get at doing it, has already been dug up. There is plenty of coal and uranium to generate electricity for a good long while, to run factories and heat buildings and houses. Lots of compelling alternative electricity generation techniques, too, such as wind and solar. Energy for transportation is the challenge.

http://www.elcova.com/h2/wuh2.jpg
Inefficient Use of Fossil Fuels

Maybe some day we’ll be driving a Prius (rhymes with “pious” – a brief, offensive rant will be appended to this commentary shortly), powered by a tiny pebble bed nuke (http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/12.09/china.html) running an argon gas turbine. Sweet! Coming to a Toyota dealership near you… in 2023 for $4,000,000 in 2006 dollars or $24,000 New American Dollars, issued in 2013. Or maybe we can shovel coal into the boiler in the back of a Humvee that’s been converted to steam power. That’ll keep the kids busy… no more whining about the stale DVD collection.

Only 5% of petroleum production is used for heating buildings, manufacturing or other fixed use applications, the rest is used for transportation. There’s a reason for that. Oil is too expensive to use for heating, and the other fossil fuels need to be converted into a fluid before they can be used for transportation.

Not to worry, say the energy optimists. Soon enough we’re going to stop using these many million year old pre-charged liquid chemical batteries and start to make our own. Who needs mother nature. To hell with Her!

http://www.itulip.com/forums/../images/1oxpower.gifEfficient but Limited Use of Quadruped Power

Ethanol from corn and grass. Biodiesel from the back of the local KFC. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) from methane. Liquid hydrogen from hydrogen gas from hydrolyzed water. Gasoline from coal.

All of these substitutes for petroleum remind me of the joke about a miracle product: dehydrated water.

Just add water.

All you need to make fossil fuel alternatives is energy, including a lot of fossil fuels. And water. And land. And time.

The main challenge in our energy future is not the limitations of alternative sources of energy but in the unique and under appreciated characteristics of petroleum that we have come to rely on for economical transportation and for petroleum based products. The plastic in your shower curtain. The fertilizer to grow the corn you eat or, if you've got the pols in your pocket, convert to ethanol.

Problems

The First Law of Thermodynamics: Conservation of Energy. If you had a window seat in high school physics class, the law says that there’s no free lunch when it comes to chemical processes that use heat to do work. You can’t get more energy out of a system than you put into it. This is relevant to this discussion because while petroleum is a pre-charged chemical battery, all substitutes for petroleum, such as liquid hydrogen and bio fuels like ethanol and bio diesel, have to be manufactured by humans. Manufacturing substitutes for petroleum takes energy and limited and expensive resources like land and water, not to mention fertilizers made from petroleum.

http://www.itulip.com/images/perpetualmotion.jpgPerpetual Motion Machine (It Didn't Work)

Some processes, such as making ethanol from corn, require more energy to manufacture than is stored in the resulting liquid battery. More importantly, they take more money to make than they produce.

The following Statement of Senator John McCain on Amendment to Prohibit Extension of Ethanol Subsidies (http://mccain.senate.gov/index.cfm?fuseaction=Newscenter.ViewPressRelease&Content_id=481) Mar 11, 1998:

“Mr. President, enough is enough. The American taxpayers have subsidized the ethanol industry, with guaranteed loans and tax credits, for more than 20 years. Since 1980, government subsidies for ethanol have totaled more than $10 billion. The Finance Committee amendment to ISTEA, if not stricken, would give another $3.2 billion in tax breaks to ethanol producers.

“Current law provides tax credits for ethanol producers which are estimated to cost the Treasury $770 million a year in lost revenue, and the Congressional Research Service estimates that loss may increase to $1 billion by the year 2000. These huge tax credits effectively increase the tax burden on other businesses and individual taxpayers.

“…the Department of Energy has provided statistics showing that it takes more energy to produce a gallon of ethanol than the amount of energy that gallon of ethanol contains.

“Finally, let me quote Stephen Moore, of the CATO Institute, who puts it very succinctly in a recent paper: ‘...[V]irtually every independent assessment--by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the General Accounting Office, the Congressional Budget Office, NBC News and several academic journals--has concluded that ethanol subsidies have been a costly boondoggle with almost no public benefit.’


http://www.epicurean.com/articles/images/elegant-martini.gif “So why do we continue to subsidize the ethanol industry? I think James Bovard of the CATO Institute put it best in a 1995 policy paper: ‘...[O]ne would be hard-pressed to find another industry as artificially sustained as the ethanol industry. The economics of ethanol are such that, for the industry to survive at all, massive trade protection, tax loopholes, contrived mandates for use, and production subsidies are vitally necessary.’”

Economical Use of Ethanol

Hydrogen is another promising human charged energy battery. Using nuclear energy to generate electricity for hydrolysis to create hydrogen, or to heat water to get hard to reach petroleum out of the ground, uses more energy than it creates, a net energy loss. That doesn’t make it a bad idea. Converting an abundant form of energy that cannot be used for transportation into a scarce form that can is not only a good idea but one what we’ll come dependent on, even if there’s a net energy loss. But it still implies a higher net cost of Btu’s (British Thermal Units) per person for transport.

Hydrolysis produces hydrogen gas that must then be compressed into a liquid; this process consumes energy. The resulting liquid hydrogen is not nearly as efficient as oil by volume, although it is competitive by weight. It takes 366 standard cubic feet of hydrogen gas to match the energy in one gallon of gasoline. After liquid hydrogen is produced, it's hard to transport because unlike gasoline it has to be kept at a very low temperature, near absolute zero, to prevent it from turning back into a very explosive gas.

http://www.centennialofflight.gov/essay/Lighter_than_air/zeppelin/LTA8G9.jpgHydrogen: not in my garage

In addition to manufacturing, transport, and storage costs, liquid hydrogen has one third of the energy density of gasoline by volume. The 18-wheeler that brought that orange you're eating to the local supermarket market burns diesel fuel with a power density of 1 million Btu per cubic foot, versus 270 thousand Btu for liquid hydrogen. That 18-wheeler can travel 1000 miles on the diesel fuel in two 84-gallon tanks that take up 23 cubic feet of space under the rear of the cab. Two 1,100-gallon liquid hydrogen tanks that use 316 cubic feet of space in the trailer are needed to get the same range, never mind the added space for the batteries that are needed to convert the hydrogen into usable energy.

Doesn't leave much room for oranges.

Another promising fossil fuel substitute is biofuel. The best case, biofuel from switch grass. The following comes from John Duetch, director of energy research and undersecretary of Energy in the Carter administration, and director of the CIA and deputy secretary of Defense in the first Clinton administration, is a professor of chemistry at MIT. Writing in last week's Wall Street Journal:

“As for the land required to support significant biofuel production from a dedicated energy crop, switch grass offers a basis for estimation. It grows rapidly, with an expected harvest one or two years after planting. Ignoring crop rotation, an acre under cultivation will produce five to 10 tons of switch grass annually, which in turn provides 50 to 100 gallons of ethanol per ton of biomass. Thus the land requirement needed to displace one million barrels of oil per day (about 10% of U.S. oil imports projected by 2025), is 25 million acres (or 39,000 square miles). This is roughly 3% of the crop, range and pasture land that the Department of Agriculture classifies as available in the U.S. I conclude that we can produce ethanol from cellulosic biomass sufficient to displace one to two million barrels of oil per day in the next couple of decades, but not much more. This is a significant contribution, but not a long-term solution to our oil problem.”

This brings us back to our friend, gasoline. In terms of the net energy, cost and power density, there’s the pre-charged petroleum battery that we’ve been digging out of the ground cheaply but increasingly expensively. And then there’s everything else, that has to be manufactured.

Back to Greenspan's speech (http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/200410152/default.htm). In his view, market forces will manage a smooth transition from oil to new sources of energy, just as they did the transition from wood to coal and from coal to oil. This is sophistry. The transition from wood to coal was smooth due to a key advantage of coal over wood—by volume the former has much higher power density. Similarly, the transition from coal to oil was lubricated not only by oil's improved power density over coal, but also because oil is liquid and is therefore cheaper to transport than coal. It can be piped long distances at wide range of naturally occurring temperatures.

Nothing comes close diesel or gasoline for power density by volume. This is where Greenspan gets the dunce cap for his "wood-to-coal, coal-to-oil, oil-to-something new" replacement argument. Coal was adopted over wood, and oil over coal, because each new energy form had better power density and was more efficient to extract, transport, and burn than the previous form. Sooner or later the economy will be forced—for the first time in history—to adapt to an inherently thermodynamically and economically less efficient source of energy than the previous one used.

http://www.itulip.com/forums/../images/dreamhomes.jpg Rising Commuting Costs will Cut Real Estate Values in Rural Areas

One result of our oil-based transportation system is cities with concentrated populations surrounded by far-flung suburbs, all connected by highways. The highways are used by autos propelled by highly inefficient gasoline engines, and trucks with slightly more efficient diesel engines. This population and real estate distribution is predicated on an oil transportation and combustion infrastructure that has evolved over the past century.

Our transportation infrastructure depends on the availability of large quantities of an inexpensive combustible fluid that packs a lot of Btu's into a small space. Oil is a unique, high power density fluid. It can be pumped right out of the ground, refined, conveyed through pipes and into tanks, and then be burned in engines.

Conclusion

We are not running out of oil. We are running out of cheap oil. Alternatives are several times more expensive than oil, even at $70 per barrel. The last oil price crisis resulted from an increase of $16 to $100/bbl (in 2006 dollars) over six years. Imagine an era—over the next 20 years or so—during which oil prices increase by a factor of five to ten or more, leading to prices of $350 to $700/bbl or higher. That's the reality of oil economics.

The utopian dream is thousands of wind mills offshore generating electricity for hydrolysis of sea water into hydrogen gas, and miles of solar cells all over the desert churning out billions of watts of electricity to power our cities over the next twenty years or so.

Maybe. But we still have to get around and transport stuff from where we get it to where we need it.

Join our FREE Email Mailing List (http://ui.constantcontact.com/d.jsp?m=1101238839116&p=oi)

Copyright © iTulip, Inc. 1998 - 2006 All Rights Reserved

All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Nothing appearing on this website should be considered a recommendation to buy or to sell any security or related financial instrument. iTulip, Inc. is not liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. Full Disclaimer (http://www.itulip.com/forums/../GeneralDisclaimer.htm)

jk
09-03-06, 11:44 AM
some questions: why no discussion of battery or fuel-cell based electric propulsion for transportation? my uneducated impression is that these are promising avenues.

batteries allow energy for transportation to be generated by fixed-site pebble-bed nuclear, wind, hydro, biomass or coal generation. [let's leave out the carbon dioxide problem for a moment.] and maybe the fusion research will come through and we'll have electricity too cheap to meter!


fuel cells: i recall hearing of a gas-powered fuel cell that allowed a much more efficient extraction of energy from gasoline. [i think there was a problem with fouling elecrodes.] an ethanol based fuel cell might be another alternative, and who says all the switch-grass has to be grown in the u.s.? we import plenty of oil. what's to prevent us from importing ethanol from countries with the available land? [as long as they accept our dollars - let's leave that problem aside for now, too.]

no one is more attracted to doomsday theses than i am [ask my friends], but i think these possibilities need to be addressed.

EJ
09-03-06, 04:03 PM
some questions: why no discussion of battery or fuel-cell based electric propulsion for transportation? my uneducated impression is that these are promising avenues.

batteries allow energy for transportation to be generated by fixed-site pebble-bed nuclear, wind, hydro, biomass or coal generation. [let's leave out the carbon dioxide problem for a moment.] and maybe the fusion research will come through and we'll have electricity too cheap to meter!.
"...electricity too cheap to meter!" was the crying call (http://www.ieer.org/reports/npd.html) of the last nuclear energy era. I have no doubt that we'll have pebble bed nukes and fusion reactors after that. But the way things are done, not without a lot of "ouch" between the today's century old energy system and and that one.

fuel cells: i recall hearing of a gas-powered fuel cell that allowed a much more efficient extraction of energy from gasoline. [i think there was a problem with fouling elecrodes.] an ethanol based fuel cell might be another alternative, and who says all the switch-grass has to be grown in the u.s.? we import plenty of oil. what's to prevent us from importing ethanol from countries with the available land? [as long as they accept our dollars - let's leave that problem aside for now, too.]
You can't pipe ethanol, it picks up too much water. You have to truck it.

no one is more attracted to doomsday theses than i am [ask my friends], but i think these possibilities need to be addressed.
I am a fan of nukes since college 25 years ago where such fanship earned me many detractors among my fellow Natural Resource Studies major students at UMass, Amherst. Today we have safe nuclear technology that we did not have then... pebble bed nukes. Still, these are not as cheap on a dollar/btu basis as what we have today. It is still more economical to take other people's oil by force.

jk
09-03-06, 05:10 PM
as oil gets more expensive it will be allocated to its most economically important use - transportation. this fact, and hybrid vehicles which will evolve toward lighter weights and lower horsepower as the cost of gasoline rises, will allow a transition to all-electrics. this is especially true as a growing hybrid sector will push battery research.

this evolution from gas to hybrid to all-electric won't require a whole new infrastructure. hydrogren will never happen for the lack of infrastructure as well as all the other problems you mention. ethanol is more plausible than hydrogen, with e85 as a transition fuel, but the difficulty in transporting ethanol militates against it as a long range solution. [though it might be interesting to know how they cope with this issue in brazil.]

ultimately, the all electric motor vehicle transforms the transportation problem into a need for cost-effective fixed site electricity generation, which seems more manageable.

JD_
09-04-06, 09:46 AM
Here is an interesting essay written by David Goodstein, Vice Provost and Professor of Physics and Applied Physics at Caltech, entitled Energy, Technology and Climate: Running Out of Gas (http://www.its.caltech.edu/~dg/Essay2.pdf). He addresses peak oil and the difficulties of painlessly transitioning to alternate energy sources. He discusses oil sands, heavy oil, oil shale, methane hydrate, natural gas, coal, nuclear fusion, nuclear fission, and solar.

I'll cherrypick some doomsday passages:

"Economists seem to believe that the problem is not real. As oil becomes scarce, its price will rise, permitting other fuels to take over. That argument ignores fundamental realities however. Our vehicles, our roads, our cities, our power plants, our entire social organization has evolved on the promise of an endless supply of cheap oil. It seems unlikely that the era of cheap oil will end painlessly."

"Civilization as we know it will come to an end some time in this century, when the fuel runs out."

JD

Jim Nickerson
09-04-06, 10:26 AM
Here is an interesting essay written by David Goodstein, Vice Provost and Professor of Physics and Applied Physics at Caltech, entitled Energy, Technology and Climate: Running Out of Gas (http://www.its.caltech.edu/~dg/Essay2.pdf). He addresses peak oil and the difficulties of painlessly transitioning to alternate energy sources. He discusses oil sands, heavy oil, oil shale, methane hydrate, natural gas, coal, nuclear fusion, nuclear fission, and solar.

I'll cherrypick some doomsday passages:

"Economists seem to believe that the problem is not real. As oil becomes scarce, its price will rise, permitting other fuels to take over. That argument ignores fundamental realities however. Our vehicles, our roads, our cities, our power plants, our entire social organization has evolved on the promise of an endless supply of cheap oil. It seems unlikely that the era of cheap oil will end painlessly."

"Civilization as we know it will come to an end some time in this century, when the fuel runs out."

JD

Now here is a fellow, Jas Jain, http://www.safehaven.com/article-5824.htm who thinks oil will go to $25 a barrel because of a coming global depression, and the problem facing the world is not "Peak Oil" but rather "Peak Debt."

You will find direct correlation between the increase in debt on the middle class, as percent of income, and the rise in inequality. And this correlation is a result of causation. This time, the banking Crooks have taken the problem to such a scale that the middle class in America will be decimated. America will become a nation full of bankrupt households most of whom were formerly middle class. It does not bode well for the stability of the whole political system. The current Peak Debt may well foreshadow the collapse of the American political system, as the world has known it since 1776. And that would be a long life for a political system. Circa 2020s: It was a good system for most of the time it lived. May it rest in peace

*T*
01-04-08, 07:46 AM
Now here is a fellow, Jas Jain, http://www.safehaven.com/article-5824.htm who thinks oil will go to $25 a barrel because of a coming global depression, and the problem facing the world is not "Peak Oil" but rather "Peak Debt."

I think you are/he is confusing an American problem (debt) with a global problem (secure sources of cheap energy).

------

As for fusion (my old area of research), it remains very capital intensive and a number of technical challenges are still unsolved.
Ironically the US did its best to scupper the major international effort ITER by pulling out whinging about the cost, until it rejoined when it saw the programme would continue without them and after a downsizing of the operation.

Because of the time to completion and the cost, fusion generation will remain a future technology until oil is much, much more expensive in real terms, by which time there may be other (social) uses for capital given higher priority by governments.

I am a huge fan of fusion technically but given how political it is I am not very confident we will get it together in time. Ironically power generation by fusion from tokamaks would be a great gift to humanity from the former USSR.

From the ITER site:
"For the second half of this century, controlled fusion looks also to be a promising development line. Although not all is yet understood of the physics and engineering of a power station based on controlled fusion, the basic principles have been elaborated in detail, and no matters of principle have been identified to stop its development into a viable source of electricity in the future. The open questions facing fusion are rather how to optimise the process, and make it attractive and economically viable."

"The cost of the experiment to the electricity consumer in the countries building ITER will be manageable (for instance about 0.40/y per person for 30 years for Europeans if the site is in Europe). Given this low outlay, it is important not to misuse the time available."
Link: ITER (http://www.iter.org)


UPDATE:
US cancels 2008 funding for ITER (http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2008/01/17/afx4544145.html)

*T*
01-04-08, 08:23 AM
And on fissionable materials, from the ever-reliable wikipedia entry on Hubbert's peak (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_peak_theory):

Caltech physics professor David Goodstein has stated [14] that
“ ... you would have to build 10,000 of the largest power plants that are feasible by engineering standards in order to replace the 10 terawatts of fossil fuel we're burning today ... that's a staggering amount and if you did that, the known reserves of uranium would last for 10 to 20 years at that burn rate. So, it's at best a bridging technology ... You can use the rest of the uranium to breed plutonium 239 then we'd have at least 100 times as much fuel to use. But that means you're making plutonium, which is an extremely dangerous thing to do in the dangerous world that we live in.

bill
01-04-08, 09:13 AM
Ironically power generation by fusion from tokamaks would be a great gift to humanity from the former USSR.
Link: ITER (http://www.iter.org)

...or Korea
http://www.toodlepip.com/tokamak/news.htm

FRED
01-04-08, 09:44 AM
I think you are/he is confusing an American problem (debt) with a global problem (secure sources of cheap energy).

------

As for fusion (my old area of research), it remains very capital intensive and a number of technical challenges are still unsolved.
Ironically the US did its best to scupper the major international effort ITER by pulling out whinging about the cost, until it rejoined when it saw the programme would continue without them and after a downsizing of the operation.

Because of the time to completion and the cost, fusion generation will remain a future technology until oil is much, much more expensive in real terms, by which time there may be other (social) uses for capital given higher priority by governments.

I am a huge fan of fusion technically but given how political it is I am not very confident we will get it together in time. Ironically power generation by fusion from tokamaks would be a great gift to humanity from the former USSR.

From the ITER site:

Link: ITER (http://www.iter.org)

We won't say who, but one of our members founded and operates a very real business working to develop cold fusion. Sounds crazy, given past issues with the science, but this is a serious effort.

Rajiv
01-04-08, 10:33 AM
very real business working to develop cold fusion. Sounds crazy, given past issues with the science, but this is a serious effort.

See also Magnetic Power Inc. (http://www.magneticpowerinc.com/) Trying to tap zero point energy

Five multi-billion dollar firms have now signed NonDisclosure Agreements with MPI in order to evaluate GENIE. Two of them have begun to discuss Joint-Ventures to accelerate mass production.

c1ue
01-04-08, 01:01 PM
Hopefully the Korean tokamak is more credible than the Korean stem cell research...

Spartacus
01-04-08, 01:36 PM
there used to be 2 forms of "cold" fusion, the Pons and Fleischmann stuff and meson-based.

Mesons are used to replace electrons. Because Mesons are 200 times the mass of an electron, they bring nuclei much closer together than electrons will allow. Because the nuclei are so close together, you need less heat to smash the nuclei together, so meson-fusion used to be called cold fusion.

I haven't kept up to date so I don't know how these researchers rebranded their research.

We won't say who, but one of our members founded and operates a very real business working to develop cold fusion. Sounds crazy, given past issues with the science, but this is a serious effort.

DemonD
01-04-08, 06:00 PM
regarding jas jain:

i have read many of his posts on the housingbubbleblog. I think he's got a great mind, but like fred and ej have pointed out with certain deflationists, i believe he underestimates the willingness and ability of governments to inflate their currency.

I think it is much more likely oil will be 300/bbl after maybe a small potential drop this year - if we are lucky.

*T*
01-05-08, 10:12 AM
...or Korea
http://www.toodlepip.com/tokamak/news.htm

Indeed, India, China, Japan, Korea, the EU+Switzerland, the US all have active fusion programmes. What I mean is that the tokamak was invented by Russians (Tamm & Sakharov).

bill
01-08-08, 09:08 AM
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/newNuclear/China_contributes_1_4_billion_to_ITER-110108.shtml



China contributes $1.4 billion to ITER
08 January 2008

China will contribute 10 billion yuan ($1.4 billion) to the International Thermonuclear Experimental Nuclear Reactor (ITER). Chinese researchers will build components and transport them to Cadarache, where construction of ITER is due to start this year.
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/artman2/uploads/1/Tokmak_-_ITER_cut.jpg
The ITER device (Source: ITER) The Chinese contribution represents around 10% of the estimated cost of ITER, which is scheduled to come online in 2016. The components to be produced by China include heating, diagnostic and remote maintenance equipment.
China joined the ITER consortium in February 2003, currently the ITER membership also includes the US, Russia, Japan, India, South Korea and the European Union.
The ITER program is projected to last for 30 years, with ten years of construction followed by 20 years of operation, although this may be extended. In total the project is expected to cost just under $15 billion.
Further information

The Iter project (http://www.iter.org/) WNN: Remote Control Tokamak (http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/newNuclear/Remote_control_tokamak_040108.shtml)
WNA's Nuclear fusion power (http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf66.html) information paper

Lukester
01-10-08, 12:11 AM
Here's one guy who's trying to repeal the laws of thermodynamics. Looks like he really means it, too.
____________


The Permanent Magnet Motor -- Howard R. Johnson

With illustrations - here: http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/1.08/magnet.html

"We don't grant patents on perpetual motion machines," said the examiners at the U.S. Patent Office. "It won't work because it violates the law of Conservation of Energy," said one physicist after another. But because, inventor Howard Johnson is not the sort of man to be intimidated by such seemingly authoritative pronouncements, he now owns U.S. Patent No. 4,151,431 which describes how it is possible to generate motive power, as in a motor, using only the energy contained in the atoms of permanent magnets. That's right. Johnson has discovered how to build motors that run without an input of electricity or any other kind of external energy!

Johnson, who has been coping with disbelievers for decades, can be very persuasive in a face-to-face encounter because he can not do more than merely theorize; he can demonstrate working models that unquestionably create motion using only permanent magnets. When this writer was urged by the editor of Science & Mechanics to make a thousand mile pilgrimage to Blacksburg, Virginia, to meet with the inventor, he went there as an "open-minded skeptic" and as a former research Scientist determined not to be fooled. Within two days, this former skeptic had become a believer.

This article is prefaced with the foregoing brief summary of the ongoing controversy so that, in fairness to the inventor, we might all view his claims with open minds, even if it means temporary setting aside of cherished scientific concepts until more complete explanations are forthcoming. The main question to be answered here and now is this: Does Johnson permanent magnet motor work?

Before providing the answer, we need to face up to another question that undoubtedly nags in the minds of many readers: Is Johnson a bona fide researcher, or merely a "garage mechanic" mad inventor? As the following brief summary suggests, the inventor's credentials appear to be impeccable. Following seven years of college and university training, Johnson worked on atomic energy projects at Oak Ridge, did magnetics research for Burroughs company, and served as scientific consultant to Lukens Steel. He has participated in the development of medical electrical products, including injection devices. For the military he invented a ceramic muffler that makes a portable motor generator silent at 50 feet; this has been in production for the past 18 years.

Johnson still has many practical problems to solve to perfect his invention. But his greater challenge may be to win general acceptance of his ideas by an obviously nervous scientific community in which many physicists remain compulsive about defending the law of Conservation of Energy without ever wondering whether that "law" really needs defending.

The dilemma facing Johnson is not really his dilemma but rather that of other scientists who have observed his prototypes. The devices obviously do work. But the textbooks say it shouldn't work. And all that Johnson is really saying to the scientific community is this: here is a phenomenon which seems to contradict some of our traditional beliefs. For all our sakes let's not dismiss it outright but take the time to understand the complex forces at work here.

What's Ahead?


For inventor Howard Johnson and his permanent magnet power source there's bound to be plenty of controversy, certainly, but also progress. A 5000 watt electric generator powered by a permanent magnet motor is already on the way, and Johnson has firm licensing agreements with at least four companies at this writing.

The Ultimate Motor

A motor based on Johnson's findings would be of extremely simple design compared to conventional motors. As shown in the diagrams developed from Johnson's patent literature, the stator/base unit would contain a ring of spaced magnets backed by a high magnetic permeability sleeve. Three arcuate armature magnets would be mounted in the armature which has a belt groove for power transmission. The armature is supported on ball bearings on a shaft that either screws or slides into the stator unit. Speed control and start/stop action would be achieved by the simple means of moving the armature toward and away from the stator section.

There is a noticeable pulsing action in the simple prototype units that may be undesirable in a practical motor. The movement can be smoothed, the inventor believes, by simply using two or more staggered armature magnets as shown in another drawing.

---- The article is very long - not posted here in it's entirety. Full article with diagrams at the posted link.

*T*
01-11-08, 05:51 AM
If we are allowed to make investment theses on changing the laws of physics, isn't turning lead to gold easier? :D

Lukester
01-11-08, 10:49 AM
*T* -

I had no opinion on the substance of this article. The original is fairly detailed. I was in fact quite interested to know what you assessed within it was the flaw or weak point. Apparently the prototypes exist and have been examined not only by peers, but by corporate sponsors and the US patent office? There is mention of a 5ooo Watt working prototype (??) - did not understand clearly, would have to re-check it.

I realise it's very long and you'd be unlikely to have the time to give it a good go-over. However in the event that you do I'd be interested in your pinpointing where the claim was specious. Please do not undertake that unless strictly for your own interest however. I fully understand the laws of thermodynamics "cannot" be broken, but is there any remotest possibility that poses the wrong question?

Given the design apparently passed peer review inspections, would it be acceptable methodology to provisionally concede this might work (to any extent?) utilizing magnetic energy in a way which has not yet been clearly evidenced to in fact contradict the laws of thermodynamics? In other words, does acceptable methodology permit discounting a design on the grounds of it's contravention of thermodynamic law prior to clarifying if it was in fact violating that law to begin with?

Is it remotely possible for example, that with regard to controlled nuclear fission, the state of science (say in the late 19th Century) might have concluded that a such technology seemed to generate prodigious energy output without "consuming" anything? This theoretical design would have been refuted from the vantage point of 19th century science, on the grounds that it violated "laws of thermodynamics"?

Just wondering.

*T*
01-12-08, 03:09 PM
Isn't this the chief skeptic's job? ;)

Hopefully I've not missed the point of your question. You may already know the following, but it bears repeating until the ends of the earth.

Firstly let's consider the laws we are supposed to be breaking.

Conservation of energy: There is no free lunch

Second law of thermodynamics / entropy increases: Someone, somewhere, is paying for your lunch.


*T* -

I had no opinion on the substance of this article. The original is fairly detailed. I was in fact quite interested to know what you assessed within it was the flaw or weak point. Apparently the prototypes exist and have been examined not only by peers, but by corporate sponsors and the US patent office? There is mention of a 5ooo Watt working prototype (??) - did not understand clearly, would have to re-check it.


In the iTulip spirit, I have read the article and some of the patents. There was mention that he was planning a 5KW motor but not that he has built it. I think Johnson is dead now so it's unlikely it will be attempted.

I realise it's very long and you'd be unlikely to have the time to give it a good go-over. However in the event that you do I'd be interested in your pinpointing where the claim was specious. Please do not undertake that unless strictly for your own interest however. I fully understand the laws of thermodynamics "cannot" be broken, but is there any remotest possibility that poses the wrong question?

I don't mind spending a bit of time, since others, including you, spend their time on these fora for my edification, so it seems fair to reciprocate.

Given the design apparently passed peer review inspections, would it be acceptable methodology to provisionally concede this might work (to any extent?)

I saw no peer-reviewed papers referred to, only patents. Inventions don't have to work to be patented. But, yes, I approached this with an open mind.

...utilizing magnetic energy in a way which has not yet been clearly evidenced to in fact contradict the laws of thermodynamics?

It's pretty easy to show it contravenes both the conservation of energy and the second law (increase of entropy in a closed system).

Entropy is a beautiful concept and closely related to wealth, I recommend everyone to bone up on it and its relation to wealth 1 (http://www.pulsethebook.com/index.php/the-real-conservatives/285-bioeconomics-part-three/) 2 (http://www.islamic-finance.com/item3_f.htm)
especially you, Lukester given your interest in peak oil, energy and its interface into the economy.

And in particular above all others I strongly recommend this guy (http://college.holycross.edu/eej/Volume12/V12N1P3_25.pdf) which is interesting reading in the wider modern context.

In other words, does acceptable methodology permit discounting a design on the grounds of it's contravention of thermodynamic law prior to clarifying if it was in fact violating that law to begin with?


Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. For instance, if I said I could cure cancer by farting, you would want to see extraordinary proof.
There was no proof I could find and the description of the physical principles were vague enough for me to consider no proof presented at all. In fact from what I could see, I think you can prove that it will not work. Given that blueprints, patents etc. are available, the fame and wealth that would accrue to the inventor and that people have tried to build these things, I would have thought we'd hear about a working model.

Is it remotely possible for example, that with regard to controlled nuclear fission, the state of science (say in the late 19th Century) might have concluded that a such technology seemed to generate prodigious energy output without "consuming" anything? This theoretical design would have been refuted from the vantage point of 19th century science, on the grounds that it violated "laws of thermodynamics"?

Maybe. But at our current understanding we know that mass and energy are interchangeable, or rather than mass is a very condensed form of energy. So again there is no free lunch, energy is conserved.

Let's consider the second law too. Take coal as an example. We burn coal and get ashes. Chemical energy is turned to heat energy and mechanical energy. Energy is not "used up". The difference in temperature between the boiler and the outside world is used to drive a turbine. The temperature difference determines the efficiency of the engine. We have turned stuff from useful "free" energy or low entropy form (in coal) to a less useful "bound" form (in ashes + heat). We cannot turn ashes into coal. We cannot un-burn the coal. Entropy has increased. So we have turned energy from a useful form into a less useful form. This is one example of why I say low entropy is wealth. It is the ability to do useful work.

In the case of fission, we turn uranium + neutron into lighter products. The energy previously stored is released. But, you cannot reverse the reaction. So entropy is increased. The useful work is extracted.

However for the case of Johnson's motor, he seems to say that he generates energy and no fuel is used, breaking both laws in one fell swoop. Impressive.
He also says he thinks the system works on room-temperature superconductivity arising from permanent magnets. Well, as you know nowadays we have room temperature superconductors, and superconductors are used in maglev trains and can do some pretty amazing things. Perhaps we can use them in making super-efficient motors. But not as a source of free (as in beer) energy.

Perhaps the device might extract energy from the earth's turning via interaction with its magnetic field. In this case it would make more sense. But he does not claim this and his invention is not designed that way.
So sadly in the absence of any real evidence we are left to judge which is more likely: Our hard-won understanding of nature is wrong in a very fundamental sense, or the guy is talking crap.

In any case, the mentioned laws in a philosophical case are true by construction, they are more or less accounting 'tricks'.

These ideas have a long history. Brahmagupta about 1500 years ago tried to design perpetual motion machines based on flowing water in a wheel that bear superficial and conceptual resemblance to Johnson's idea
http://www.hp-gramatke.net/pictures/perpet/baskara2.gif
and yet Indians still have to work :(

Da Vinci, a man of no mean wit, entertained himself trying to design these things but himself proved their impossibility
http://www.hp-gramatke.net/pictures/perpet/leo_perp.jpg

So in summary, expecting a free lunch from a machine is exactly like expecting printing pieces of paper to make the world wealthier.

O you researchers of perpetual motion, how many harebrained ideas have you created in this search. You may as well join the alchemists. - Leonardo da Vinci

Lukester
01-12-08, 03:51 PM
Thanks very much for the input *T*. I hope I made it clear in my query that I really had no idea as to it's merit, and did not presume to.

I will go forth - duly chastened to such claims in future! :D

*T*
01-13-08, 04:45 AM
Thanks very much for the input *T*. I hope I made it clear in my query that I really had no idea as to it's merit, and did not presume to.

I will go forth - duly chastened to such claims in future! :D

No chastening intended. Your comments on energy have influenced my thinking on 'what happens next.'

Since US demand no longer sets the price of oil, a falling dollar will not cheapen US oil imports. In any case recession will not immediately reduce the physical quantity of demand much (inelastic demand).

As such we will see a recession in the US, resulting in a falling dollar, resulting in higher oil prices, resulting in a worsening trade deficit, reinforcing the falling dollar and the recession, completing the loop.
On top of that, the falling EROEI of remaining energy reserves acts to push up the price of oil in all currencies.

This cycle should continue until there is genuine energy demand destruction. The conclusion is that a falling dollar will not lead to an export-led recovery until the US imports much less energy.

Dunno whether iTulip has a position on whether a US recession will cheapen oil this time?

Lukester
01-13-08, 10:00 AM
Spot on *T* -

I think iTulip's view is that a US recession will indeed weaken oil prices notably worldwide as global commerce grinds to a slowdown led by the US. Lots of very reputable economists seem to see the world as remaining entirely coupled.

I may be vewing things irrationally, but I feel the industrialising world will barely pause to acknowledge a US prolonged slump, before picking that slack right back up. Core growth rates in these areas are simply too high, and they are rapidly developing internal markets and markets among each other. India alone already has a 300 million strong middle class and growing. I don't know what the equivalent Chinese middle class number is, but these are only two of the countries in question. How are you going to slow that truck down much at all?

As you note, as "higher entropy" fuel sources are increasingly going to be filling in the gaps of global al liquids energy production, it's indeed difficult to see petroleum prices slipping by very much. I'd be surprised to see them dip below $80 a barrel, and I'd expect to see them spike to $125 on a high, at some point in the next 18 months.

3-4 years out? I think it's very, very easily $150 a barrel.

Everyone has a different view. I think by and large GRG55 who works in the petroleum industry, regards price action somewhere in the $80 - $125 range, but I only gathered that by inference.