Why is gold NOT going up?

[Mega]

Everything thing else is, but not Gold?????
Mike

[JoeSixpack]

You are funny.

[metalman]

You are funny.

this is "news"?

[Lukester]

What I wanna know is, why aren't I rich yet??? When am I gonna get freakin' rich already? :mad: :confused: :rolleyes:

[Nervous Drake]

Mega this is no offense to you buddy but I'm pretty sure every time you post something with little input of your own (putting your own individual opinion into the mix) you weaken your image on this site. Most people are going to put you on their ignore list. Put some thought into it and make your own judgment call and see what others have to say!

[metalman]

What I wanna know is, why aren't I rich yet??? When am I gonna get freakin' rich already? :mad: :confused: :rolleyes:

you are rich in mind and heart, luke. we can all see that. in time, $$$$ will follow.

[obstruksion]

Mega this is no offense to you buddy but I'm pretty sure every time you post something with little input of your own (putting your own individual opinion into the mix) you weaken your image on this site. Most people are going to put you on their ignore list. Put some thought into it and make your own judgment call and see what others have to say!

It must be easy to rip on people when you're a new iTulip member...

*sarcasm

[Nervous Drake]

It must be easy to rip on people when you're a new iTulip member...

*sarcasm

Yeah I forgot you were supposed to be a member for at least a year before you could give people constructive criticism. My bad.

[jtabeb]

Everything thing else is, but not Gold?????
Mike

Not Funny, actually it is insightful.

What is wrong with The Itulip analyis (model if you will) Everything is working out swimmingly EXCEPT on the PM front.

I would venture that Mega ( and I include myself also) are looking for something that we have missed to correlate the performance that we are observing against the performance we expect.

The broader question (okay I'll ask it again) "Is gold being targeted/manipulated below where it would be trading at w/o said manipulation?"

And Also "Are we seeing this now?"

Remember this thread: (Who is shorting gold)

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3584

I going to give credit to MEGA here for stating this out-loud and in public.
I know I've asked myself the question.

Have any of you?

[jtabeb]

Mega this is no offense to you buddy but I'm pretty sure every time you post something with little input of your own (putting your own individual opinion into the mix) you weaken your image on this site. Most people are going to put you on their ignore list. Put some thought into it and make your own judgment call and see what others have to say!

Dude how 'bout addressing the point he raised, instead of missing it completely?

ADDITIVE not Subtractive.

P.S. This is me trying to be additive.

[Nervous Drake]

Not Funny, actually it is insightful.

What is wrong with The Itulip analyis (model if you will) Everything is working out swimmingly EXCEPT on the PM front.

I would venture that Mega ( and I include myself also) are looking for something that we have missed to correlate the performance that we are observing against the performance we expect.

The broader question (okay I'll ask it again) "Is gold being targeted/manipulated below where it would be trading at w/o said manipulation?"

And Also "Are we seeing this now?"

Remember this thread: (Who is shorting gold)

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3584

I going to give credit to MEGA here for stating this out-loud and in public.
I know I've asked myself the question.

Have any of you?

Why don't you try and think of the bigger picture a bit. The government can name the price if they really want to, but it doesn't matter in the end. Gold and silver are trusted monetary units of value and thus will be used as such if need be.

You don't think you could convince someone to take a silver eagle over a twenty in an obviously inflationary environment? I'm confident I could.

The truth will always come out in the end, and if it doesn't, we've got bigger problems my friend.

[Spartacus]

we're all playing a joke on you Mega, Gold is actually $30,000 per ounce now and the US is a desert wasteland and China runs most of the world.

Rent the "Truman Show" (Jim Carrey, Ed Harris) for the REAL truth

I think Metalman is in the Harris role.


Everything thing else is, but not Gold?????
Mike

[Lukester]

"Why is gold not going up?" Whine, whine, whine. I feel your pain fellas. You guys want the moon and the stars in six months, and if it's not served up on your schedule on a Ritz Hotel platter you get impatient and suspicious. How the heck are you going to go the distance for the next decade? What a rank newbie question! Gold can sit there and do NOTHING for two years while the impatient ones buy it, sell it, then buy it back and sell it all over again, churning their positions with expressions of bewilderment and irritation, wondering why 'it's not doing anything' for them.

This is a really rank newbie complaint. "Hey, I just loaded up on gold six months ago and this thing is a dog! It's not going anywhere! There's a conspiracy of wankers suppressing the price and robbing me of my fat reward! Anyone who suggested I buy gold to protect myself from inflation is full of shit!" etc. etc. Anyone wanting instant gratification does not deserve any windfall or reward! You don't have the long term view - you deserve to get thrown off this thing at the very next downturn. All the people you look at enviously who made 300% waiting patiently since 2000 and sweating it through ugly downturns are looking at your greedy impatience with disgust.

[jtabeb]

"Why is gold not going up?" Whine, whine, whine. I feel your pain fellas. You guys want the moon and the stars in six months, and if it's not served up on your schedule on a Ritz Hotel platter you get impatient and suspicious. How the heck are you going to go the distance for the next decade? What a rank newbie question! Gold can sit there and do NOTHING for two years while the impatient ones buy it, sell it, then buy it back and sell it all over again, churning their positions with expressions of bewilderment and irritation, wondering why 'it's not doing anything' for them.

This is a really rank newbie complaint. "Hey, I just loaded up on gold six months ago and this thing is a dog! It's not going anywhere! There's a conspiracy of wankers suppressing the price and robbing me of my fat reward! Anyone who suggested I buy gold to protect myself from inflation is full of shit!" etc. etc. Anyone wanting instant gratification does not deserve any windfall or reward! You don't have the long term view - you deserve to get thrown off this thing at the very next downturn. All the people you look at enviously who made 300% waiting patiently since 2000 and sweating it through ugly downturns are looking at your greedy impatience with disgust.

Below the belt and just plain wrong,
You saw his point but just drove right by and went way way past it.


see my post above yours.

(P.S. I've owned gold for 5 years and I asked the same freaking question)

Additive, not subtractive. Let's all get smarter, and more informed, ok?

[jtabeb]

Why don't you try and think of the bigger picture a bit. The government can name the price if they really want to, but it doesn't matter in the end. Gold and silver are trusted monetary units of value and thus will be used as such if need be.

You don't think you could convince someone to take a silver eagle over a twenty in an obviously inflationary environment? I'm confident I could.

The truth will always come out in the end, and if it doesn't, we've got bigger problems my friend.

Because I learn bottom up, not top down.

[Lukester]

Sorry Jtabeb, call me thick. What's the point? The metal just got through running up 40-50%. What's the question here? Mega capitalises words regularly in his posts for all sorts of reasons, so you are probably the one reading more into this than is actually there.

OK, so what if "the evil cartel" drives the gold price down regularly. Is this some sort of ground breaking story here? It's been beaten to death in countless posts for years. The stuff went up a lot recently. Not enough for some, I guess. Now it's got to sit around and bore people to death for another six months, a year, 18 months or whatever. "Why gold may may or may not be going up is a non-story". Tell me what I'm missing that's a revelation here?

And what's this 'hitting below the belt' stuff? Huh? This is just a discussion about whether the gold price has been hashed out enough as a topic. If it were a piece of laundry it would be threadbare and colorless by now.

[jtabeb]

Sorry Jtabeb, call me thick. What's the point? The metal just got through running up 40-50%. What's the question here? Mega capitalises words regularly in his posts for all sorts of reasons, so you are probably the one reading more into this than is actually there.

OK, so what if "the evil cartel" drives the gold price down regularly. Is this some sort of ground breaking story here? It's been beaten to death in countless posts for years. The stuff went up a lot recently. Not enough for some, I guess. Now it's got to sit around and bore people to death for another six months, a year, 18 months or whatever. "Why gold may may or may not be going up is a non-story". Tell me what I'm missing that's a revelation here?

And what's this 'hitting below the belt' stuff? Huh? This is just a discussion about whether the gold price has been hashed out enough as a topic. If it were a piece of laundry it would be threadbare and colorless by now.

Just trying to determine what I'm up against like the rest of you. If I learn something and you do too great. If not, I agree we shouldn't waste our spit. But sometimes you gotta use some spit to find out if you would be wasting it in the first place.

[Lukester]

You saw his point but just drove right by and went way past it.

What's Mega's point here Jtabeb? Can't figure out what it is, other than voicing some disappointment at the fact that Gold's price is not going up any more.

[ No worries Jtabeb. I'm fine with Miker posting whatever he wants, and much appreciate all of your posts also. ]

[phirang]

I've been hearing that the gold souks in UAE have been very active, and that most gold is sold on the blackmarket there...

As for inflation, it's damn simple: the banks, since they practice fractional reserve banking, can ill afford asset deflation. The US gov will become the backstop for the mortgages at risk, and as a result, the dollar will depreciate accordingly with this added liability factored into the US budget npv.

Of course, this makes SS much cheaper to pay in the future, especially since the purchasing power of SS payments isn't assured, per greenspan:rolleyes:.

Grover Norquist is lovin' it!

[Aerius]

I’m typically anti-conspiracy theory, but it may be manipulation. There appears to be a strong seller at $950 and apparently it broke some major technical rule (as per Dennis Gartman); lower and lower RSI or something.<o></o>
<o></o>
He has been long gold and did a panic sell on his entire position today.<o></o>

[*T*]

Chill, Winston. Gold is going up fast. Just not in a straight line.
http://cap.ee.ic.ac.uk/~asharma/trend.gif

[BiscayneSunrise]

Exactly, T,

Investor psychology is now fixed on other sectors, i.e energy, alternate energy, agriculture, tech, steel (which is an infrastructure play), etc, When sentiment in those sectors becomes overly optimistic and overbought, that will be your signal to short them and return long to PM's

By the way, I am curious. Why would a gold cartel work to keep the price of their product low? Like OPEC, isn't in their best interest to drive prices higher?

[JoeSixpack]

(P.S. I've owned gold for 5 years and I asked the same freaking question)


Ok i actually thought it WAS a joke or rather a rant.
The last correction lasted 15 MONTHS.

I dont even post a chart here because if you own gold you know it.

Gold has hit a technical target which i also saw on Sinclair (1026-1040). Perfect and kudos. Unfortunately i was on vacation and could not short it.

EVEN Sinclair who is the BIGGEST gold bug on earth said that Gold should better NOT challenge these levels too soon or it will be sold hard.
From the same analysis a quick glance gives conservative buy entries at 840 and 795 area, but the correction might already be over (885) if it moves sideways a while.

If you own it from much cheaper levels, just hold it.

Sheesh.

[phirang]

GATA strives to let gold rip... all the members are gold fund managers or miners

[WDCRob]

How in the hell can you argue gold isn't going up? It's risen at an annualized rate of ~17% since the start of the year.

ETA: I see others raised the same point ahead of me. Note to self: read whole thread before posting.

[vcif]

Mike,

If you think gold is undervalued now, then buy more!!! I would love to see it get knocked down ($850) and I have been saving for such an opportunity.

Your question raises another point. Are you invested in gold as a store of value and inflation hedge or as a speculative investment?

If there is a speculative aspect to your purchase, then undervalued gold is your friend, especially- so make nice.

vin

[krakknisse]

Just my $0.02. Asking why gold is not going up is an interesting question to ask (though I'm not sure it belongs in news). I've previously posted a "hold my hand" post when gold fell. No longer.

This is definitely a correction. Absolutely nothing has changed in the fundamentals. There is absolutely no way that the Fed could get away with a meaningful raising of US interest rates. Sure, they could raise a quarter, or a half point to spook the market. But to counter the monetary beast that they've unleashed, they'd have to push it to at least 7% (which used to be a normal interest rate) and that would kill homeowners and businesses. But no way they could do a real Volker (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FEDFUNDS?cid=118). Just do the math yourself. CPI-U was 12.5% in 1980 (ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/cpiai.txt), declining to 8% after that or less which makes the real Volker interest rate from 5% to 15%. The real interest rate would have to increase to 10% at least to be anywhere near Volkers sting.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/FEDFUNDS_Max_630_378.png

Maybe I and other late entrants bought in a little late - so we'll have to live with a 20% or 30% fall. Just look at the chart - if you bought in on the May 2006 top it would have taken you 18 months to start to see a profit again, and the fall was between 20% and 30%.

But gold is still an excellent insurance against real monetary disasters. If the ITulip thesis is correct, we will see significant price inflation to "get out" (save the bankers) of this recession, but not hyperinflation. But nobody really knows how this will pan out. It could well get worse. Eating a potential 30% loss - on paper - and near certainty that it will get back up - still gives you the best monetary insurance that fiat money can buy. There is a thin veneer of trust in fiat money, and this crisis will slowly erode that. Even societal trust will be worn down. And anything politicians do to "fix it" will erode that limited reserve of trust - there is no way to fix it short of a miracle happening (Ron Paul - are you listening?) Let's hope that that veneer of trust is not worn down. Sooner or later it will, but I hope not in my lifetime.

Speak to me again in a year or two. I may be a sucker J6P. But at least gold is a safer bet. Any other new gold entrants start to like the feeling of fondling your stack (and I don't mean the female variety) :D?

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au1825nyb.gif

- Non teneas aurum totum quod splendet ut aurum

[WDCRob]

But gold is still an excellent insurance against real monetary disasters. If the ITulip thesis is correct, we will see significant price inflation to "get out" (save the bankers) of this recession, but not hyperinflation. But nobody really knows how this will pan out. It could well get worse. Eating a potential 30% loss - on paper - and near certainty that it will get back up - still gives you the best monetary insurance that fiat money can buy. There is a thin veneer of trust in fiat money, and this crisis will slowly erode that.

Well said K.

I finally bought around $875 earlier this year and I find that I worry much less about what's happening now. Watching it skyrocket to $1000+ was good fun, but I haven't given it a second thought on the way down. And if it goes much lower I'll probably buy some more.

I hadn't factored in the security blanket function feature of metals when I was planning, but it's definitely there (for me at least) and I doubt I ever sell all of it now.

[medved]

Well said JG.

I finally bought around $875 earlier this year and I find that I worry much less about what's happening now. Watching it skyrocket to $1000+ was good fun, but I haven't given it a second thought on the way down. And if it goes much lower I'll probably buy some more.

I hadn't factored in the security blanket function feature of metals when I was planning, but it's definitely there (for me at least) and I doubt I ever sell all of it now.

Same here. I have to make a terrible admission. I was selling gold, silver and some related mining companies, when gold hit $1000 and silver hit $20. So, I guess, I am one of the manipulators. Now I am waiting for the right moment in this "annual takedown" (as Jim Puplava calls it) to buy some of it back. I also wait for most of my sold covered calls to expire worthless.

I guess, if I could time it (for the third time in the last 6 years), so could the professional traders.

Yes, Virginia, there is manipulation in the gold market. Why should it be different from any other? The only thing different is manipulating gold is much easier, than, say, copper. And yes, there is a lot of speculation. So, if you want to reduce pain, learn to speculate.

[rabot10]

What I wanna know is, why aren't I rich yet??? When am I gonna get freakin' rich already? :mad: :confused: :rolleyes:

Just the fact that anyone would be talking to you makes you a rich guy, U have some real issues. But I still Love ya

[Dominique]

Lukester must be a new investor. Gold and silver move in spurts; it's the nature of the PM industry. What makes this bull very hard to stay on is the fact very few investors have the patience required to save themselves from the profound debasement of almost all currencies throughout the world.

You have to remember that patience is very rare in the US, and elsewhere for that matter. Just buy more when the price "craters". Buy silver, too. Silver should outperform gold, going forward.

The ratio between gold and silver is about 50; it should close to 20, or so, over time.

Dominique

[Lukester]

Lukester must be a new investor. Gold and silver move in spurts; it's the nature of the PM industry. What makes this bull very hard to stay on is the fact very few investors have the patience required to save themselves.

Dominique - It was just joking around.

[Finster]

"Why is gold not going up?" Whine, whine, whine. I feel your pain fellas. You guys want the moon and the stars in six months, and if it's not served up on your schedule on a Ritz Hotel platter you get impatient and suspicious. How the heck are you going to go the distance for the next decade? What a rank newbie question! Gold can sit there and do NOTHING for two years while the impatient ones buy it, sell it, then buy it back and sell it all over again, churning their positions with expressions of bewilderment and irritation, wondering why 'it's not doing anything' for them.

This is a really rank newbie complaint. "Hey, I just loaded up on gold six months ago and this thing is a dog! It's not going anywhere! There's a conspiracy of wankers suppressing the price and robbing me of my fat reward! Anyone who suggested I buy gold to protect myself from inflation is full of shit!" etc. etc. Anyone wanting instant gratification does not deserve any windfall or reward! You don't have the long term view - you deserve to get thrown off this thing at the very next downturn. All the people you look at enviously who made 300% waiting patiently since 2000 and sweating it through ugly downturns are looking at your greedy impatience with disgust.

Lukester, most of us know intellectually that you are right. But our emotional side still wants to bellyache! ;)

[Lukester]

Lukester, most of us know intellectually that you are right. But our emotional side still wants to bellyache! ;)

Fully understood Finster. And I see that you've remained a rock steady proponent of the virtue of Gold in this decade's general environment. I then read people questioning how we could see gold and the other PM's "collapse" due to bubble qualities in these fiat currency hedges and I wonder how their world view is constructed. There is no hard metal standard in any currency today. We have major stresses appearing in the global fiat currencies, closing in on a quadrillion dollars of notional derivatives worldwide, closing in on Peak Cheap Oil, introducing 2-3 billion new consumers with burgeoning savings, witnessing the unequivocal final teetering of the US dollar standard, and some people continue to worry that the underpinnings of gold are questionable? Well, OK, to each his own I guess. Should I sell my gold? :eek: [ five minutes later ] How about now??!?? :eek: [ next day ] Well, how about now then? Should I sell it now?? You say no? Why not then, huh, huh?? :eek: :eek:

[FRED]

Fully understood Finster. And I see that you've remained a rock steady proponent of the virtue of Gold in this decade's general environment. I then read people questioning how we could see gold and the other PM's "collapse" due to bubble qualities in these fiat currency hedges and I wonder how their world view is constructed. There is no hard metal standard in any currency today. We have major stresses appearing in the global fiat currencies, closing in on a quadrillion dollars of notional derivatives worldwide, closing in on Peak Cheap Oil, introducing 2-3 billion new consumers with burgeoning savings, witnessing the unequivocal final teetering of the US dollar standard, and some people continue to worry that the underpinnings of gold are questionable? Well, OK, to each his own I guess. Should I sell my gold? :eek: [ five minutes later ] How about now??!?? :eek: [ next day ] Well, how about now then? Should I sell it now?? You say no? Why not then, huh, huh?? :eek: :eek:

http://www.itulip.com/images/exorcistreganclimbing.gif
Don't neglect the commentary
of the possessed MSM business press
for the past 10 years: sell gold!

http://www.itulip.com/images/ibankingmorons.jpg

No, the preferred method is selling CDOs and such.

[sadsack]

I'm just waiting for sub-$850 spot prices before I commit the rest of my "Mad Max" reserve bonars. Although the recent traction seen in Ag relative to Au is making my trigger finger very itchy wrt the latter PM . . .

[Nervous Drake]

Play gold if you want what is most likely the monetary metal of choice for the future. Play silver/platinum if you want to play the overall commodity boom (if it is allowed to keep going).

These days I've resigned myself to the fact that these problems are extremely deep and the government is in a desperate position. Nothing is predictable imo.

Sapien's threads have killed my will to beat the system. If the system is really going to be beaten, there will be either extreme luck involved or an extreme event occurs.

[Finster]

Fully understood Finster. And I see that you've remained a rock steady proponent of the virtue of Gold in this decade's general environment... :eek: :eek:

You bet, Lukester! As you've suggested, however, the major trend does not proceed in a straight line. One of the best formulations we've seen of this idea is in the thread Gold Update: The small trade within the big trade (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3413):

... Within the long gold and silver trade are players that create price movements that at times are counter to the long term trend and at other times exaggerate the long term trend...

Thus, rather than see AU/USD proceed at a nice, steady, 20% or so clip year in year out, we see an advance of 60%, followed by a decline of 15%, followed by a levelling off, followed by an advance ... etceteras. It must be this way ... the former is virtually impossible, since if market participants could count on a certain directional movement across all time frames, the bets would rapidly accumulate on that thesis and the expected longer term price movement would soon be brought forward and compressed into a very short time frame, depriving the next time frame of the movement whose anticipation spurred the bets in the first place. The former leads ineluctably to the latter...