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Mega
04-18-08, 08:14 PM
I wanted Mad Max.......You guys promised me...Gret depression 2 !............Well i can see a slow down, but not big D!

Where is it??????

I hate the World, it hates me
Mike

Nervous Drake
04-18-08, 09:02 PM
I love you bro, and you should probably stop wishing for things that you shouldn't wish for.

GRG55
04-18-08, 10:29 PM
I wanted Mad Max.......You guys promised me...Gret depression 2 !............Well i can see a slow down, but not big D!

Where is it??????

I hate the World, it hates me
Mike

As EJ said it's a process. Not an event. You been reading the papers?

Riots over rice. Riots over Tibet. Riots over the bloody Olympic torch relay. Indications a "disruptive event" could spike oil over $150. What then...riots over fuel? It's all connected. It's already happening. All around you.

Be careful what you wish for.

krakknisse
04-19-08, 02:36 AM
Yeah, that's my take on it too. This is drawn out. Every now and then you'll see the truth through the kaleidescope on Bloomberg, when the bad news collects on the front page before the happy idiot talk spinners can fill it up with good news: "Missed profits at <company> Consumer confidence down in <country> Foreclosures rising <somewhere> Dollar weaker".

On a "report from the front" I've been away visiting several other Northern European countries so far quite insulated from most of "The Troubles". Here is my impression:
- You're no longer laughed at when suggesting that property might actually decline. There will be no in-depth discussion, but simply a worried, subdued tone to the conversation, which I try not to press to be polite. Telling people that you've sold your house gets a puzzled "what?", no longer an incredolous "what!"
- People actually care about price "inflation". Metro, a free daily newspaper, screamed "Food prices increase most in 16 years" on its front page on April 15th, 2008. I talked to one guy, and he spontaneously complained about the 15% price rise in food locally when we discussed personal economics. The same guy actually ended up suggesting spontaneously "So what you're going to do, buy gold?" when I told him about the effect of inflation on savings. The same guy was very surprised when I told him that credit growth (related to "monetary inflation") was 15% per year.

Just let this pan out. Inflation-wise, I don't think you've seen nothing yet. These stories:
http://images.bloomberg.com/r06/global/odot.gif- Fed Officials May Be Nearing Rate Pause as Inflation Quickens (http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adJIM71hYaxo&refer=home)
- Trichet Not Ready to Cut Rates Even as Risks Mount (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601100&sid=a39_BVXzzvVY&refer=germany)

There is absolutely no way that the Fed can do a Volker-type course of treatment, and the ECB will sooner or later have to bow to political pressure. I'm not saying that there will be hyperinflation - so no Mad Max, methinks - that is still an ambiguous wet dream.

This for example (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/04/18/cneuro118.xml):
Silvio Berlusconi, Italy's newly elected premier, has called for a change in the ECB's mandate, proposing a dual mission akin to the US Federal Reserve's mandate to promote growth as well as fighting inflation. He has the support of France's Nicolas Sarkozy.

But hanging on to value while fiat declines 30% over the next two three years is still a good value - especially when you can buy the assets that you need (property) at at least 30% off of the fiat value.

Olduvai
04-19-08, 04:03 AM
Yeah, that's my take on it too. This is drawn out.
I think noone wants a Mad Max. Momentarily it is drawn out but what will happen when the trouble in the Middle East starts again or China starts selling US-assets bigtime. It could go very fast then.
Eight years ago I emigrated from Holland to Germany because even then real estate in Holland was going nuts (now it's the looney bin). Today's housing market in Germany is quietly trundling along without any big changes. It follows the average income on it's slow uptrend. In Holland real estate has doubled in these eight years compared to Germany. Real estate is glutting the market in ever increasing numbers and for the Dutch the day of reckoning is drawing nearer every day. This is noticeable in the Dutch's every day attitude towards another. The happy go lucky lifestyle has been replaced with an envy culture. Every day agression whether in traffic, sporting, or just walking your dog has become terrible. Although we had to suffer much from Jerry in WW2 they are far more courtious/relaxed then the Dutch nowadays.
Big issues are carefully avoided in Dutch media. Just like Sweden had, the Dutch still have tax deductability on mortgage rent. Noone mentions the fact that this is paid for by the government through income from our gasfields while these fields are finished in twenty years. Noone is talking about raising our dikes because of climate change and the enormous sums this will need.
I know one thing for sure and that is life in our European multiculti big cities won't be a picnic when hit by a serious economic downturn let alone when Mad Max comes to visit.

Sapiens
04-19-08, 10:42 AM
I wanted Mad Max.......You guys promised me...Gret depression 2 !............Well i can see a slow down, but not big D!

Where is it??????

I hate the World, it hates me
Mike

Life requires responsibility; it is up to you to make the best of your life even if you do not know you must do so.

We are born ignorant, and those that came before us that taught their children the above insight, gave their children the power to make the rules and govern society.

Mike, let me share with you a secret, there are people in this world just like you that wish to destroy others and themselves simply because they are cowards and cannot accept the responsibility that Life imposes upon all of us.

You will get your Mad Max, and I making sure my descendants will at least have the tools and knowledge to survive it since I treasure and value Life.

The irony is not lost on me, that those that love life must be willing to fight to the death those that wish to extinguish Life itself.

Get out and enjoy life Mike, go somewhere where you can actually live Life to the fullest. Lest I point out to you that although you are alive, you are living Death.

Be well,

-Sapiens

metalman
04-19-08, 10:44 AM
Life requires responsibility; it is up to you to make the best of your life even if you do not know you must do so.

We are born ignorant, and those that came before us that taught their children the above insight, gave their children the power to make the rules and govern society.

Mike, let me share with you a secret, there are people in this world just like you that wish to destroy others and themselves simply because they are cowards and cannot accept the responsibility that Life imposes upon all of us.

You will get your Mad Max, and I making sure my descendants will at least have the tools and knowledge to survive it since I treasure and value Life.

The irony is not lost on me, that those that love life must be willing to fight to the death those that wish to extinguish Life itself.

Get out and enjoy life Mike, go somewhere where you can actually live Life to the fullest. Lest I point out to you that although you are alive, you are living Death.

Be well,

-Sapiens

on that cheery note, i'm off to buy a motorcycle and a sawed off shotgun for a ride in the country this beautiful spring morning...

metalman
04-19-08, 10:48 AM
I think noone wants a Mad Max. Momentarily it is drawn out but what will happen when the trouble in the Middle East starts again or China starts selling US-assets bigtime. It could go very fast then.
Eight years ago I emigrated from Holland to Germany because even then real estate in Holland was going nuts (now it's the looney bin). Today's housing market in Germany is quietly trundling along without any big changes. It follows the average income on it's slow uptrend. In Holland real estate has doubled in these eight years compared to Germany. Real estate is glutting the market in ever increasing numbers and for the Dutch the day of reckoning is drawing nearer every day. This is noticeable in the Dutch's every day attitude towards another. The happy go lucky lifestyle has been replaced with an envy culture. Every day agression whether in traffic, sporting, or just walking your dog has become terrible. Although we had to suffer much from Jerry in WW2 they are far more courtious/relaxed then the Dutch nowadays.
Big issues are carefully avoided in Dutch media. Just like Sweden had, the Dutch still have tax deductability on mortgage rent. Noone mentions the fact that this is paid for by the government through income from our gasfields while these fields are finished in twenty years. Noone is talking about raising our dikes because of climate change and the enormous sums this will need.
I know one thing for sure and that is life in our European multiculti big cities won't be a picnic when hit by a serious economic downturn let alone when Mad Max comes to visit.

thanks for this comment. we in the usa forget that for all our problems we have figured out how to get a mix of ethnicities and tribes living together more or less peacefully.

the whole mortgage interest deduction scam... product of the real estate sub-group of the fire economy lobbies... is OVER if obama gets elected. how else are we going to pay for all the stuff he's suggesting, like raising minimum wages on a regular basis vs every 10 years?

those free market french have the right idea...


France does not allow a home mortgage interest deduction. In 2007, newly-elected President Nicolas Sarkozy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicolas_Sarkozy) proposed creating the deduction as part of his legislative plan for sparking the French economy.<sup class="reference" id="cite_ref-1">[2] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home_mortgage_interest_deduction#cite_note-1)</sup> In August 2007, the Constitutional Council (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitutional_Council_of_France), the highest court in France, struck down the mortgage interest deduction as unconstitutionally creating a tax advantage that goes far beyond its stated goal of encouraging non-homeowners to buy homes. The Court noted that the deduction would apply to people who already own homes.<sup class="reference" id="cite_ref-2">[3] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home_mortgage_interest_deduction#cite_note-2)</sup> -wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Home_mortgage_interest_deduction)

Mega
04-19-08, 04:10 PM
What i fear is that in a attempt to fix house prices our "beloved" PM goes for hyper inflation. House prices never fall, but "Mega" is wiped out in the process.

The IMF can't find the Gold it sez it going to sell, Gold should be MUCH higher but the Bastards are keeping it from doing so.

I want FREEDOM, where the "Col-lec-tive" can't control my life.

Mike