Gold vs commodity index vs biofuels

[gasull]

I'm unsure about where to invest.
Gold will rise, but the "gold cartel" can control its price: http://news.goldseek.com/JamesTurk/1166457660.php
Commodities in general will go up as inflation goes on and due to increase demand in emerging markets like China and India. Will they go up more than gold? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rogers_International_Commodity_Index
Biofuels ETN's will go up too, like commodities in general, but also backed by Government intervention to promote biofuels. Isn't it the bubble we are looking for? http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3306Any advice? Thanks in advance.

[metalman]

I'm unsure about where to invest.
Gold will rise, but the "gold cartel" can control its price: http://news.goldseek.com/JamesTurk/1166457660.php
Commodities in general will go up as inflation goes on and due to increase demand in emerging markets like China and India. Will they go up more than gold? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rogers_International_Commodity_Index
Biofuels ETN's will go up too, like commodities in general, but also backed by Government intervention to promote biofuels. Isn't it the bubble we are looking for? http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3306Any advice? Thanks in advance.

welcome, gasull. well, let's see.

you're mixing apples and oranges. let's sort them out.

#1 gold is a bet that us pols are more interested in staying in power than in doing the right thing for the american people and will dump the dollar to save their skins... for now: inflation.

#2 commodities that you consume are a bet that demand rises in spite of usa economic troubles.

#3 commodities that you store are a bet that the dollar tanks. see #1.

#4 biofuels are a bet that the pols will continue to act to prop up expensive boondoggles to stay in power even if that means starving people.

note the common thread... government. government. government.

want to invest in the stuff that you can invest in that governments don't control?

like what?

????

bonds? nope.

currencies? nope.

stocks? nope. (see section 179)

to sum up: bet with gov't in things they do well, like creating bubbles...and against them in things they do shitty, like managing everything.

confused? join the club. there's nothing to "invest" in. now it's all gambling on which way gov't is going to take the ship.

[gasull]

welcome, gasull.

Thanks metalman.

Well, let's see if biofuels seem to be the best bet:


#1 gold is a bet that us pols are more interested in staying in power than in doing the right thing for the american people and will dump the dollar to save their skins... for now: inflation.

[...]

#3 commodities that you store are a bet that the dollar tanks. see #1.


Doesn't inflation also help to rise prices in commodities you consume? I mean, M3 inflation leads to currency depreciation that leads to price rise in all commodities.


#2 commodities that you consume are a bet that demand rises in spite of usa economic troubles.


China is not in a recession. Am I wrong? So demand for food and meat will increase, and therefore agricultural products will soar.

And anyway, Americans won't stop eating. Even if they choose to eat food that isn't used for biofuels that won't affect biofuels, because land supply is limited and if some land is diverted to grow, say, peas, then the supply of corn will shrink and price will rise.

#4 biofuels are a bet that the pols will continue to act to prop up expensive boondoggles to stay in power even if that means starving people.

So Government intervention will help biofuels to rise in price.

to sum up: bet with gov't in things they do well, like creating bubbles...

Checked. As Janszen said, clean energy is the next bubble.

and against them in things they do shitty, like managing everything.

Or like preventing world famine.

It seems to me that biofuels are the best bet. Am I missing anything?

Thanks.

[zoog]

Soros and some economist on commodities boom. (http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2008/04/17/soros-says-commodity-bubble-is-still-in-growth-stage/)

Billionaire investor George Soros said Thursday that the boom in commodities is still in a "growth phase" despite the fact that prices for oil, wheat, rice, and gold have risen to records in 2008, Bloomberg News reported Thursday.
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Moreover, demand for selected commodities (oil, rice, wheat) is so great, it's creating relative shortages, Soros added, which is only heightening the return on equity potential of commodities, Bloomberg News reported.
Economist Glen Langan, whose second Ph.D. field was agricultural economics, told BloggingStocks Thursday he agreed with Soros' assessment that the commodity price run-up is being aided by institutional investors, but that the primary price driver remains increasing demand for commodities in emerging markets, primarily Asia and Latin America.

"China's demand itself would be enough to start an upward trend line in oil, wheat, copper, coal, fertilizer, and other commodities, but with globalization, we have, essentially, the whole world implementing capitalism, with a few exceptions, such as Cuba, North Korea, and Iran," Langan said. "And the initial growing pains are obvious enough. We have had large price increases, with selected shortages of some commodities, such as rice."Further, Langan expects foodstuff commodity prices -- for wheat, rice, and soybeans, among others -- to continue to rise at double-digit rates this year, then moderate to single-digit price increases in 2009, as farmers increase production to capture those high prices. In the developed world, such as the United States, food prices will increase about 8-10% in 2008 and 5-7% in 2009, he said."Back yard vegetable gardens are going to become even more popular in the United States and in other countries in the years ahead, I can guarantee you that," Langan said.