Recession probabilities

[bart]

My personal estimates run 55-65% currently based partially on the following.


The yield curve as recession predictor (http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci2-7.pdf)

http://www.nowandfutures.com/download/RecessionProbabilitiesUsingYieldCurveSpread(90_day _avg_of_3_mo_bill_to_10_yr_bond)(mauldin)erp123005 .gif

Other research shows that study understates by 25% or so (http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=4686)


The current yield curve picture
http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/yield_curves_short_term.png


http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/yield_curves.png