Gary North: commodities boom and Au/Ag/Pt bubbles are over

[Spartacus]

http://www.garynorth.com/public/3263.cfm

hmmmmm .... reading between the lines of this article one would think Gary has abandoned his 20 year old inflationist views, 2 years after crowing that the last of the great deflationists (Martin Weiss) had given up the ghost and become an inflationist.

[Lukester]

I agree Spartacus. North has come a bit unmoored. Every recurring crash another one or two of these pundits go flapping off the deep end into chaotic disjointed trains of reasoning. The human mind can reason itself right into a shoebox if it wants to when a little fear is added.

[grapejelly]

gold is "a bubble" according to North. And there is no inflation either. I think someone should explain the differences between a routine market correction in a market that has gone up non-stop since August 2007, and a "bubble".

[metalman]

I agree Spartacus. North has come a bit unmoored. Every recurring crash another one or two of these pundits go flapping off the deep end into chaotic disjointed trains of reasoning. The human mind can reason itself right into a shoebox if it wants to when a little fear is added.

north's a religious, right wing nut job. why expect a man who thinks the world was created in a few days to make sense re pm investing?

[Lukester]

Spartacus, Grapejelly, Metalman -

We are the hard nut the deflationists are going to have to crack if they want to conclude their proselytizing is actually being met by anything other than bored cynical eyes. Their proselytizing is looking like a bowl of rancid jello to my view. Do any of you have something more charitable to say about them? :D

Give it your best shot you flabby minded soiled diapers!! Come and get us!

[Spartacus]

I need & want answers to his plausible sounding arguments.

he hides the dark, demented origins well and finds good arguments - it's those that need to be squashed.

north's a religious, right wing nut job. why expect a man who thinks the world was created in a few days to make sense re pm investing?

[Tulpen]

Is it too much to ask if we could all respect a person's religion on this forum and not use someone's religion to make cheap shots?

[Lukester]

Tulpen -

Asking Metalman to be politically correct in any capacity is unfortunately a losing proposition. No-one has managed to re-educate him in ages. He's a perennial oddity. Apparently he runs an establishment called "Metalman's Finishing School for Drawing Room Manners", which cranks out ambassadors (but I think they are trained primarily for the Age of Enlightenment so they may be a little too "agnostic" for some tastes).

As he shows little inclination to change, maybe the best response is to grow thickskinned to his occasionally sharp edged comments. I will observe this - The good Lord is far above us all and can peer into man's heart to discern the miserly pinched ones apart from those of decent moral fibre. Often the most pious are in fact the miserly pinched souls, while conversely those who are not constrained about employing crude terms have hidden away in them a surprising degree of moral scruple.

It's an odd world where nothing is quite as it appears to be. :D

[Spartacus]

your post is replying to me

I wrote nothing about his religion in this thread (I may have written about it elsewhere, though, and (next is edited, added later) on later reflection, "dark, demented origins" could be taken to mean, well, something not too good ...)

Is it too much to ask if we could all respect a person's religion on this forum and not use someone's religion to make cheap shots?

But as long as you ask, squire:

Gary's view on religious tolerance

"We must use the doctrine of religious liberty to gain independence for Christian schools until we train up a generation of people who know that there is no religious neutrality, no neutral law, no neutral education, and no neutral civil government. Then they will get busy in constructing a Bible-based social, political and religious order which finally denies the religious liberty of the enemies of God."


http://www.reason.com/news/show/30789.html

(good for the goose, kind of fing)
(and I have still taken no cheap shots ... "own petard" ...)

[metalman]

Is it too much to ask if we could all respect a person's religion on this forum and not use someone's religion to make cheap shots?

ok, fine. years of inflation is over because pms gave up 15% of 7 yrs of gains. whatever. (it ain't north's religion that bothers me. see Gary North, Lew Rockwell, and the Politics of Stoning Heretics and Homosexuals to Death) (http://www.tomgpalmer.com/archives/014604.php)

hope it's ok to do this... drag in a pic from the select area... but you think a whacko like north knows this?

...under a floating exchange rate system, an initial disturbance (either domestic or foreign) can create an exchange rate inflation spiral. That is, the disturbance can set into motion a cumulative process of inflation and exchange rate depreciation, through which exchange rate effect is rapidly translated into domestic prices and costs and back to the exchange rate.

- Source: IMF, Onis and Ozmucar, 1990: 137http://www.itulip.com/images/inflationexchangerate.gif

ya think north gets the "exchange rate inflation spiral" lingo that an actual professional uses?

doubt it. too scientific. too predictive.

"Do you think it is more likely that gold will double in a time of deflation or that the stock market will fall by 50%? Invest accordingly." - gary

can't even distinguish between asset and commodities price deflation, same as mishmash. dark ages.

here's the gig...

1. asset price deflation ->
2. economic contraction ->
3. depreciating currency ->
4. ballooning money supply (see mzm) ->
5. commodity price inflation ->
6. more economic contraction
7. goto 1

also from that article (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=31112#post31112)...

Martin Feldstein heads up the National Bureau of Economic Research President. "NBER is a private sector group that is considered the arbiter of U.S. business cycles."

in other words this is THE group that calls recessions or not... and feldstein runs it. he sez...


Mr. Feldstein also noted “powerful forces [that] will continue to drive inflation higher.” And while inflation expectations are still relatively well contained, “you wonder how long that's going to last,” he said.

who ya gonna believe, the harvard prof. who calls recessions and is 100% off message talking in public about "powerful inflation forces" or the guy who writes (http://www.reason.com/news/show/30789.html)... "When people curse their parents, it unquestionably is a capital crime," he writes. "The integrity of the family must be maintained by the threat of death." Likewise with blasphemy, dealt with summarily in Leviticus 24:16: "And he that blasphemeth the name of the Lord, he shall surely be put to death, and all the congregation shall certainly stone him."

call me crazy, but my money's on the old prof.

[metalman]

your post is replying to me

I wrote nothing about his religion in this thread (I may have written about it elsewhere, though, and (next is edited, added later) on later reflection, "dark, demented origins" could be taken to mean, well, something not too good ...)



But as long as you ask, squire:

Gary's view on religious tolerance

"We must use the doctrine of religious liberty to gain independence for Christian schools until we train up a generation of people who know that there is no religious neutrality, no neutral law, no neutral education, and no neutral civil government. Then they will get busy in constructing a Bible-based social, political and religious order which finally denies the religious liberty of the enemies of God."


http://www.reason.com/news/show/30789.html

(good for the goose, kind of fing)
(and I have still taken no cheap shots ... "own petard" ...)

ya beat me to it! smite me!

[Lukester]

as long as you ask, squire: Gary's view on religious tolerance ... "they will get busy in constructing a Bible-based social, political and religious order which finally denies the religious liberty of the enemies of God."

Tulpen -

Looks like your objections to disrespect for Mr. North's brand of piety would have been better left unsaid.

"Denies the religious liberty of the Enemies of God" - this kind of bigotry I could do without. In a modern secular nation dedicated to the peaceful co-existence of all religious groups, including agnostics and atheists, Mr. North's above statement is within a whisker of being consigned to the socio-political excrement of the American modern nation.

Do you know what I was doing this afternoon Tulpen? As preamble I will note I am an agnostic. Grew up within ten blocks of the Vatican in Rome, and have rarely stepped foot in a church in my life. Don't care to start now either. If there is one thing in the world that will have me running to get a gun license, it's people mouthing comments like the above.

Today I was on my way to 24 hour fitness for some swimming. In an affluent mall here in San Diego I passed a forty year old woman, in an wheelchair, obviously indigent, and begging at a traffic light. Glossy Californians drove by looking bored. I stopped to talk to here. She had just moved here from Arizona, with two little kids, and barely the clothes on her back.

In the past three months, she'd wound up in the emergency room in cardiac arrest. She wound up getting seven stents put into her coronary arteries, and another five in the arteries to her kidneys. The hospital "discharged" her two weeks later and she was on the street. Her kids were starving and sleeping on the hospital lawns while she was in recovery.

She was hugely embarassed and apologetic for her condition as I spoke to her. She did not wish to be a burden on anyone. Her feet were so swollen with gathered fluid she could not walk. What I saw tore my heart out. I opened my wallet and gaver her $65 bucks. All the money I had on me. I found out where she was staying in a dive motel through the next week and I'm shaking the bushes of all the homeless shelters in San Diego trying to find out how she and her two little kids can be rescued. She's in a real bad way with her health.

Meanwhile I read the likes of Mr. North, who devotes himself to celebrating a queasy mixture of adulation for the precious metals with prognostications of doom and the second coming and eventual rapture of the "saved" among us. Whenever I read religious gold bugs, like Jason Hommel for instance, who mingles references to Godliness with his panting reverence for precious metals as an embodiment of everything that he presumes to be close to God - this stuff is putrid. These people have little time or imagination to dwell on the people like that wheelchair bound woman who was apologising for her plight.

The money grubbing characters like Mr. North and Jason Hommel are pure, bona fide nut-cases, and the piety they think they espouse is a sorry creature to behold, because their intoxicated mingling of their fascination for gold and silver with the concept of God or heaven is a peculiarly chilling bastardization which commingles raging acquisitiveness with a slightly schiophrenic piety. I hope you have as much healthy disdain for these religious nut / goldbugs as I do, as they are downright creepy. I feel closer to God trying to do good my own way without hardly ever having stepped foot in a church, let alone knowing any of their rites.

They can take their organized religion, (Catholic, Protestant, Muslim, Greek Orthodox, and whatever the fuck else) which cloaks so many pinched, tight-arsed bourgeois twits underneath the organized smug-peer-approved facade of piety, and they can shove it where the sun does not shine. I won't miss it.

[Tulpen]

your post is replying to me

Sorry for that, my reply was meant in reaction to Metalman's comments.

[grapejelly]

Gary North says there is no inflation. He shows Federal Reserve data indicating no inflation. That is what he hangs his hat on.

http://www.garynorth.com/public/3118.cfm

And

http://www.garynorth.com/public/images/3118b.gif
(http://www.garynorth.com/public/images/3118b.gif)

[babbittd]

North led the charge on Y2K paranoidism.

How he still has enough credibility to sell subscriptions, even to other nutjobs, is beyond me.

[Spartacus]

No apologies needed - I've hit the wrong "reply" or "quote" button many times

Sorry for that, my reply was meant in reaction to Metalman's comments.

[grapejelly]

Gary North's "no inflation at all" is interesting...

[Spartacus]

Yes ....

Like I wrote in this thread's opening post North (GN) been an inflationist for a long, LONG time.

GN knew Martin Weiss's father, a life-long deflationist - publicly debated the guy lots of times, apparently

GN crowed/trumpeted when Weiss gave up the deflationist ghost 2 or 3 years ago, yet now he's marshalling a few isolated statistics to show that deflation is happening, while ignoring the new deflationary tactics making news headlines every day.


Gary North's "no inflation at all" is interesting...

[Steve Netwriter]

I never realised there were such extreme religious views among goldbugs :eek:
There are some amazingly good posts on this thread.

Just wondered whether you guys have heard of this:

A movement for all non-religious and non-mystical people.

A bright is a person who has a naturalistic worldview.
A bright's worldview is free of supernatural and mystical elements.
The ethics and actions of a bright are based on a naturalistic worldview.

http://www.the-brights.net/

Steve

PS I'm with the old prof. too :D

[Spartacus]

heard of them, probably checked out some of their stuff at one time or another.

I'm not a "joiner" (clubs, parties, etc ... . Last club I joined was iTulip, and the boy scouts before that.

My humanist/skeptic side hangs out at James Randi's website, reads Dawkins and "free Inquiry" and "skeptical inquirer" and so on

I never realised there were such extreme religious views among goldbugs :eek:
There are some amazingly good posts on this thread.

Just wondered whether you guys have heard of this:

A movement for all non-religious and non-mystical people.

A bright is a person who has a naturalistic worldview.
A bright's worldview is free of supernatural and mystical elements.
The ethics and actions of a bright are based on a naturalistic worldview.

http://www.the-brights.net/

Steve

PS I'm with the old prof. too :D

[Steve Netwriter]

I'm not much a 'joiner' either. But I did join so I can call myself "A Bright" which I find a slightly amusing description :)
It's also very useful when a religious person calls at the door to 'sell' something. I say "I'm a Bright so I wouldn't be interested in that". Since they never know what that means, they have no comeback, which is great :):):)

I also find the newsletters interesting.

James Randi, and "my hero" Richard Dawkins are also Brights :cool:

It's nice to 'meet' someone of similar views.

[grapejelly]

Gary North has a new article about how "Greenspan's last bubble (http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north615.html)" has burst.

Actually, although it is a bit sensationalist, I can't say North's recommendations are all that stupid. But I don't see how this correction means anything although I suppose it depends upon your timeframes. I don't think selling gold and buying fiat makes a whole lot of sense in the long run although if you are a short term trader it's different.

That's the thing that I don't agree with. North is talking about making adjustments as in trading. And I don't see gold and silver bullion, especially physical, as a trading mechanism. Not at all. It is purely a safe refuge that will maintain your purchasing power.

The other disagreement I have here is on the recommendation that you short gold. I think that's stupid. Although again, it depends upon your timeframe. But if you are holding gold bullion as a safe haven, then you aren't going to want to short it, are you? It goes against the long term trend and I wouldn't want to monkey with that with my bullion money. With some of my play-around money, yes, but not serious wealth that is supposed to be socked away.



WILL THE FED INFLATE?
Of course the FED will inflate. But it is not inflating now. This is why gold is falling now, and why real estate is falling now.

Will gold come back? Yes.

The question is: How far will it fall?

The other question is: Will you sell gold now and buy back more later?

I don't mean sell all of it. I mean sell some of it and sell more of it as the price falls. Then buy gold when you think inflation has returned. Sell gold mining shares first. Then sell bullion. Then sell a few coins. Sell the coins last, and maybe not at all. You can short gold to protect the value of your coins. The money you lose in holding the coins is offset by the profit you make by shorting.

The FED has been in deflation mode ever since last August. We are now seeing the results. The equity markets are falling. Treasury bonds have risen.

It is going to take a complete reversal of FED policy to re-inflate this economy. The solvency of major firms and investment banks is at risk. Mere fiat money at (say) 6% per annum will not save them. The capital markets are unraveling too fast.

I do not recommend getting rid of all your gold because there are still offsetting factors, such as war with Iran, a falling dollar, a major terrorist attack, a major purchase of gold by a central bank.

There is another factor: the bullion banks. They have borrowed gold from the central banks for an annual interest payment of 1% per annum. They have used the money from the sale of this borrowed gold to buy bonds. Rising gold prices threaten them with bankruptcy. They don't have enough money to buy back the gold and return it to the central banks.

In a deflation, gold falls and bond prices rise. This two-fold action will save the bullion banks. These banks are where the elite invest their money. They will be able to unwind their positions. They can sell their bonds and re-buy gold if the want to.

If I were them, I would want to.

What is happening is a dream come true for the bullion bankers who borrowed gold to get money to invest in bonds.

[GRG55]

http://www.garynorth.com/public/3263.cfm

hmmmmm .... reading between the lines of this article one would think Gary has abandoned his 20 year old inflationist views, 2 years after crowing that the last of the great deflationists (Martin Weiss) had given up the ghost and become an inflationist.


Gary North: commodities boom and Au/Ag/Pt bubbles are over

Apparently Gary North forgot to tell the Nigerians...

Nigeria Raises April Crude Export Prices to Records

By Alexander Kwiatkowski
March 25 (Bloomberg) -- Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer, raised the official selling prices for its crude exports loading in April to records.

Benchmark Bonny Light and Qua Iboe climbed by 45 cents to a premium of $3.55 a barrel over Dated Brent, according to the price list compiled by state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corp. The previous record of $3.10 was set for March exports.

All other Nigerian crude prices rose by between 20 cents and 65 cents...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601207&sid=a.V7.7sPLLpE&refer=energy

[metalman]

Gary North: commodities boom and Au/Ag/Pt bubbles are over

Apparently Gary North forgot to tell the Nigerians...Nigeria Raises April Crude Export Prices to Records

By Alexander Kwiatkowski
March 25 (Bloomberg) -- Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer, raised the official selling prices for its crude exports loading in April to records.

Benchmark Bonny Light and Qua Iboe climbed by 45 cents to a premium of $3.55 a barrel over Dated Brent, according to the price list compiled by state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corp. The previous record of $3.10 was set for March exports.

All other Nigerian crude prices rose by between 20 cents and 65 cents...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601207&sid=a.V7.7sPLLpE&refer=energy


apparently gary north forgets to take his meds from time to time. famous quotations of gn...

The Plague Has Come At Last (http://www.serve.com/thibodep/cr/atlast.htm)
"God has a sense of humor."
AIDS article, 1987

Economic Forecast for the Eighties (http://www.serve.com/thibodep/cr/ecforcst.htm)
"I am increasingly of the opinion that nuclear war is imminent..."
Biblical Economics Today, 1980

Impending Judgment (http://www.serve.com/thibodep/cr/impend.htm)
"What is an extremist? A prophet."
Christian Reconstruction, 1980

Out of the Rubble... (http://www.serve.com/thibodep/cr/honest.htm)
"They have no solution. There is no solution."
Honest Money, 1986

Prophets, Leaders, Followers, Losers (http://www.serve.com/thibodep/cr/prophets.htm)
"Rarely does anyone believe a prophet. "
Biblical Economics Today, 1993

The Rusting of the Iron Curtain: How Real? (http://www.serve.com/thibodep/cr/rusting.htm)
"God has raised up Gorbachev to execute this final phase of the Soviet strategy against the West..."
Christian Reconstruction, 1990

What Are the Facts? (http://www.serve.com/thibodep/cr/facts.htm)
"[The Soviets] now have a new anti-missile defense system in actual production which can hit
any of our missiles or planes as they approach Soviet targets with half a dozen or more missiles."
TentMakers, 1985

Guns (http://www.serve.com/thibodep/cr/guns.htm)
"You need to know how to draw, unlatch the safety, aim,
and put two bullets in a man-sized target at 20 feet in a second and a half, total."
Successful Investing in An Age of Envy, 1981

Y2K Judgment (http://www.serve.com/thibodep/cr/y2kjudge.htm)
"We need times so hard that men will turn to God..."
ICE Newsletter, January 1998


or maybe he's just a right wing loony... (http://people.smu.edu/acambre/garynorth/)


Gary North needs to be spanked. He is an alarmist, apocalyptic goon. He is doing whatever he can to make western society collapse before January 1, 2000. He wants the US economy to shut down, the dollar to go crazy, to implode the division of labor, and riots to tear at all the cities of the United States. Why? Because the United States government—or more specifically, the Federal Reserve Bank—doesn't fit within his extremist Christian Reconstructionist religious views.

his texas pal john mauldin...

I then turned my attention to the investment publishing client (Dr. Gary North and the American Bureau of Economic Research), eventually buying a stake in the firm. http://www.johnmauldin.com/biography.html

oh, what a tangled web we weave...

[Spartacus]

http://www.garynorth.com/public/3328.cfm

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/IBD-0001-24220838.htm

http://mises.org/story/2934

I'm more inclined to listen to North than Mish because North has been an inflationist for as long as I've been reading him.

IMHO he's making way too much hay out of the Gold correction.

[grapejelly]

Today he has attacked Steve Saville, one of the smartest guys around today. No call for that. A real personal attack that is completely unwarranted and beneath someone who holds himself up on a high horse. Sickening. Saville came back at 'em hours later, in his private newsletter to which I subscribe. A civilized response and quite right IMHO.

[Lukester]

Saville is indeed a class act compared to Gary North. I don't follow him regularly but he seems entirely sound and very workmanlike in his analyses. The fact that North is a headcase should not require any further elaboration.

I'm a little perplexed how someone as smart as Savile feels he needs to spend any time at all 'buttressing the inflation case' these days let alone defending himself from the tirades of Gary North. Why is he even bothering to bat it back and forth with him on this topic? Let North wander off into his incoherent mumbles on his own, without further comment!

http://www.safehaven.com/article-9872.htm

[gasull]

3 days later, on March 22nd 2008, Gary North said gold will be back:

http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north615.html


<quote>Of course the FED will inflate. But it is not inflating now. This is why gold is falling now, and why real estate is falling now. Will gold come back? Yes. The question is: How far will it fall?</quote><quote></quote>

[FRED]

3 days later, on March 22nd 2008, Gary North said gold will be back:

http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north615.html

<quote></quote>

On March 7, I published an article on commodities in a recession (http://www.garynorth.com/members/3205.cfm).
On March 15, I issued a warning on the fact that inflation has ended and the precious metals were not rising because of inflation (http://www.garynorth.com/members/3244.cfm).
On March 17, I ran an article on how to short gold (http://www.garynorth.com/members/3252.cfm).
On March 18, I ran an article on falling base metals prices and how they had turned bearish. I warned that gold was likely to be next (http://www.garynorth.com/members/3258.cfm).


Great advice if you like your investment advice from your mother in law in the back seat: "Turn left. No, turn right no, turn left! Here! No, dummy, I said RIGHT! NO LEFT!!! Turn now! WHAT ARE YOU DEAF? TURN RIGHT! NO, NO, NO! LEFT! TURN RIGHT! JEEZUS!

[Spartacus]

I've been reading Gary for a while (around 2002 I think) and I've never read this from him (I have a fairly good memory for some of this type of thing)

>>>
LIAR, LIAR, PANTS ON FIRE

We live in the FIRE economy: finance, insurance, and real estate.

The crucial insurance today is Federal insurance – explicit, implicit, and widely assumed even when legally absent. Big institutions are considered too big to fail, meaning too big for the government to allow to fail. Think Bear Stearns. So, promises made by the government serve as the ultimate back-up for the promises made by the largest carry traders.
<<<<<<<<<

http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north619.html

Great advice if you like your investment advice from your mother in law in the back seat: "Turn left. No, turn right no, turn left! Here! No, dummy, I said RIGHT! NO LEFT!!! Turn now! WHAT ARE YOU DEAF? TURN RIGHT! NO, NO, NO! LEFT! TURN RIGHT! JEEZUS!

[Spartacus]

Just to be pedantic, Dr. North - you wrote that the FED had been deflating for a substantial time period.

Gold rose most of that time, hitting new nominal highs.

3 days later, on March 22nd 2008, Gary North said gold will be back:

Of course the FED will inflate. But it is not inflating now. This is why gold is falling now, and why real estate is falling now. Will gold come back? Yes. The question is: How far will it fall?

http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north615.html

<quote></quote>

[metalman]

Just to be pedantic, Dr. North - you wrote that the FED had been deflating for a substantial time period.

Gold rose most of that time, hitting new nominal highs.

liar and a right wing nut job. why anyone reads these guys... who knows.

so full of contradictions you need two brains with the the corpus callosum cut on each to follow them. here's a typical article in summary...

unregulated banking, good! freedom!

results of unregulated banking, bad! corruption!

deflation = rising gold... unless it's falling.

inflation is money debased. gold is money! use gold instead and you have freedom! guns, too!

i rest my case.