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Captain3D
03-16-08, 04:55 AM
Hi All

I have been long gold and silver since about $650/$13 and have been following the lack of gold junior response to the rising prices. I would like to think they will be reacting soon and have been searching for a way to invest in Junior Gold miners all night with out much luck. A few investing names have come up...

Sprott Asset Management
John Embry
http://www.sprott.com
Seems like you need $500k to get started from the US.

Jim Puplava
http://www.puplava.com
Looks like $200k minimums

Anything more accessible through regular US brokerage accounts?

U.S. Global Investors WrldPrecMineral (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=UNWPX)

Seems like a possibility


The fund invests normally at least 80% of assets(plus any borrowings for investment purposes) in equity securities of companies principally engaged in the exploration for, mining and processing of precious minerals. It focuses on selecting junior and intermediate exploration companies from around the world.

I would also be interested in individual stock recommendations coming from a newsletter. Anyone subscribe to any?

Any leads appreciated...phil

Captain3D
03-16-08, 05:09 AM
The Mining Speculator (http://www.angelpub.com/pubs/msp)

Any experience?


As a matter of fact, in the past five years the Mining Speculator portfolio has seen an average gain of 212%!

Part of those gains can be attributed to our picks in junior mining stocks, which are known to give explosive profits.


Though we live in dangerous financial times, each period of danger and crisis provides exceptional opportunities to enhance and protect our wealth. We can't control what the politicians and power elite do, but we can take steps to protect our finances and loved ones. It is not "un-American" to protect your money. Investments in the precious metals and their mining stocks should go a long way to accomplishing our objectives.

The McCoach Research Group was started to help investors find sensible speculations that have limited downside and huge upside potential. We make recommendations on mining stocks that in our opinion have 10 x or better potential under the current bull market conditions, which we see lasting for many years to come. The best leverage for making such returns in our opinion is currently found in the junior mining stocks.

Seems to have the right attitude.

phil

Contemptuous
03-16-08, 02:16 PM
John Doody - Gold Stock Analyst. AAA gold stocks analysis, but he does only producer mid cap and large cap stocks. Still he is smarter, more qualified, more diligent and more scrupulous than 90% of other gold stock analysts.

I would give Doug Casey a miss even though he specialises in Juniors and is a good stock picker. I've heard Doug Casey has been known to act rather cavalier on occasion in making sure his subscribers get adequately timely "sell" signals. He scopes lots of good juniors, but I don't trust his level of concern for his subscribers - too casual for my taste.

Rajiv
03-16-08, 02:35 PM
Questions for you Lukester

Which is heavier? a pound of gold or a pound of steel?
Which is heavier? an ounce of gold or an ounce of steel?

Contemptuous
03-16-08, 02:40 PM
Gold is the heaviest metal, matched only by Tungsten. Next question?

EDIT -

OK I lose due to inaccuracy. Heaviest metal is Iridium. But I was close, Gold and Tungsten have almost identical weight and are the next heaviest. Curious that the one of the world's softest metals (you can dent pure gold with a fingernail) has identical atomic weight to the world's hardest metal.

Rajiv
03-16-08, 03:44 PM
you didn't answer my questions.

Does an oz of gold weigh more than or less than an oz of steel?
Does a pound of gold weigh more than or less than a pound of steel?

clue: the problem does not exist in the metric system

Contemptuous
03-16-08, 05:47 PM
Rajiv -

My bad. Of course, they both weigh exactly the same amount. Duh.

Isn't this a sixth grader "jokes" question? What are you, trying to confirm if I'm old enough to be posting on these web pages? I know I sound juvenile at times, but that's just a character trait, I assure you. :D

Milton Kuo
03-16-08, 06:23 PM
you didn't answer my questions.

Does an oz of gold weigh more than or less than an oz of steel?
Does a pound of gold weigh more than or less than a pound of steel?

clue: the problem does not exist in the metric system

Are you asking about the difference between avoirdupois and troy weights?

Contemptuous
03-16-08, 06:31 PM
Milton -

No, it's a 'trick question'.

One ounce of anything weighs exactly the same amount as one ounce of anything else. The denominator of weight is the ounce itself.

Rajiv
03-16-08, 06:43 PM
Actually they don't weigh the same.

one pound of gold weighs less than a pound of steel
one ounce of gold weighs more than an ounce of steel

And the reason is that gold is measured in Troy weight while steel is measured in avoirdupois weight

This distinction is important to know for anybody wanting to buy and hold gold. That is the reason for my comment that the problem goes away when using the metric system. When buying PMs you have to know what you are buying.

Rajiv
03-16-08, 06:48 PM
Milton Kuo is right. The difference is in the system used -- Gold uses Troy weights while steel is measured in Avoirdupois weight -- and the Avoirdupois weights and Troy weights are not the same. So an oz is not the same as an oz.

Milton Kuo
03-16-08, 06:49 PM
Actually they don't weigh the same.

one pound of gold weighs less than a pound of steel
one ounce of gold weighs more than an ounce of steel

And the reason is that gold is measured in Troy weight while steel is measured in avoirdupois weight

This distinction is important to know for anybody wanting to buy and hold gold. That is the reason for my comment that the problem goes away when using the metric system. When buying PMs you have to know what you are buying.

Yay! I got it right! :D

I have seen literature that uses the ozt. and oz. abbreviations to clearly identify the measuring system used, though.

Contemptuous
03-16-08, 07:08 PM
Bah! Humbug! I was close enough for government work. So what prizes are you handing out to the winner, huh!? What's Milton gonna get - a waterfilled plastic bag with two goldfish with (long) Hank and Ben faces? A stuffed miniature toy bear, wearing a NYSE tee-shirt (w/no pants)? A bag of green lemon-lime b0nar candy? Or maybe a beany cap with a picture of Benji the Central Wanker Banker on the front?

Lessee the prizes? You can't have a quiz contest without the prizes! :confused: :rolleyes:

Rajiv
03-16-08, 07:10 PM
The major problem though is that a Troy pound is only 12 Troy oz -- while the normal pound has 16 normal oz -- and I believe that all the gold quotes are in Troy weight.

On a slightly different topic, one of the reasons gold can never become cash again

At the end of 2001, it was estimated that all the gold ever mined totalled 145,000 tonnes. There are currently 6 B humans on this planet -- the amount of gold per person would only be 24 grams -- should actually be less than that -- because some of that gold is no longer available. In other words, less than 3/4 of an oz of gold is available for every human on earth.

However, it may be a transition over into whatever may come after the Banking system collapses.

Contemptuous
03-16-08, 07:14 PM
On a slightly different topic, one of the reasons gold can never become cash again.

OK on this topic your assumption may be less than watertight. Any asset whatsoever, if used in the appropriately fractional system, can serve as a monetary anchor. Certainly due to the long precedent of fractional reserves adopted by countries worldwide, gold can serve as an interim monetary anchor until other regulations are devised.

So 'can never become' is perhaps too absolute? In a fractional system it could still easily serve an anchoring role.

Rajiv
03-16-08, 07:28 PM
hopefully -- you will have the knowledge that nobody gypped you when you bought all that gold! And now for some words of great wisdom.

http://tinypic.com/29g6te

Captain3D
03-17-08, 12:01 AM
erm. Get your own thread ;-)

Any opinion on gold juniors?

phil

Finster
03-17-08, 03:56 PM
Questions for you Lukester

Which is heavier? a pound of gold or a pound of steel?
Which is heavier? an ounce of gold or an ounce of steel?Milton -

No, it's a 'trick question'.

One ounce of anything weighs exactly the same amount as one ounce of anything else. The denominator of weight is the ounce itself.

Suggested response to Rajiv's question. Another question: Have you stopped beating your wife?

;)

Rajiv
03-17-08, 04:22 PM
Finster,

It seemed to me that people here want to buy a commodity without understanding what that commodity is, and without having a clue as to how to assure themselves that they are getting what they are paying for. Hence my post (a bit tongue in cheek perhaps - but I hope you get my point!)

Contemptuous
03-17-08, 05:41 PM
Finster -

Rajiv is indubitably iTulip's biggest wonk! Every fact or issue has to be nailed down to the floor on the finer points. He just can't bear to browse past any loose facts. :D

Finster
03-17-08, 06:51 PM
:D

Just to briefly digress back to the topic of this thread ;), a guy I know that does well with "juniors" (well, says he does well...), does enormous amounts of in-depth research. Pores over balance sheets, geologist's reports, goes to conferences (e.g. PDAC), talks to management, etceteras. Makes it almost a full time job. If you try this at home, these are the kind of guys you are up against, and you better do at least that much if you want to play in area without getting skinned alive.

First ask yourself if it is really worth what it takes. If you were bullish on PM in 2000, you could've just bought the bullion and quadrupled your dollars while sleeping and partying the next eight years. No stock market risk, no corporate management risk, no striking union risk, no flooded mine risk, no power shortage risk, no hole-in-the-ground-with-a-liar-at-the-top risk.

And taken advantage one of the main reasons for investing in PM in the first place: You own an asset that is no one else's obligation.

Of course, owning bullion and owning mining stock are not mutually exclusive avenues. Just the latter isn't a substitute for the former. PM mining stock is not PM, it's stock. If you want to include some mining stock in your portfolio, a good way is through a fund. There's even at least one ETF (GDX) devoted to that. If you don't want to use a fund, then only proceed if you have specialized expert advice or are really willing to roll up your sleeves and spend some quality time with due diligence. And the more "junior" (speculative) the miners, the more vital that is.

Contemptuous
03-17-08, 07:54 PM
Captain3D -

Finster nailed it. To amplify on what I think Finster means: If you own bullion, and are looking for added exposure with 'junior stocks', you are misunderstanding something. Junior stocks are so speculative that you must rigorously limit the size of your positions to invest in them responsibly.

Therefore even the eventual profit, from a best-case scenario where you unerringly picked all the fabulous winners among the juniors - the eventual profit is in fact limited by the limited size of your positions within that class of gold-proxies.

What Finster is pointing out is the real wisdom. You can get 75% - 100% of the same total return, allocating a considerably larger part of your assets to the bullion. What look like fabulous returns from the breathlessly projected and much touted 2000% upside in the 'juniors' is to some extent illusory, because unless you are a flaming kamikaze with your safe money, you are limiting your position in those juniors to 5% or 10% of your total assets.

I submit that if you are really serious investing in precious metals, you are 35% to 40%, (or even 50% if you are super-aggressive!) invested directly in bullion, and after bullion moves up 300% you've gained almost as much, with far less risk, than dinking around playing with fire in the junors sector. This is why I regard Doug Casey as a bit of a mountebank character. He's got a lot of razzle dazzle. What's lost in the allure is that in order to see life-changing results from investing in his type of stocks you've got to play like a high-stakes gambler with your serious money.

I started investing in gold and gold stocks way back in 2002. I got all starry eyed by the fabulous upside of the 'gold juniors' for a couple of years, and let brokers and newsletters talk me into investing more than was good for me in a basket of red hot speculative junior stocks.

It was only four years later that I realised that this is really not serious investing. The serious investing bets BIG, when it identifies a trend, a' la' George Soros, or Jimmy Rogers. You do your homework on the main thesis six ways to Sunday, then when you know the thesis is sound, you put a lot of investment into this high probability bet.

But you don't do it with any juniors. You place a much larger chunk into the commodity (world's most senior currency) itself, and by being out of the equities markets altogether, you spare yourself from having minor heart attacks whenever the market 'barfs' down 1000 points, as it's getting set to do at some time this year or next.

This is where I parted ways with Peter Schiff. Much as I admire his stance and his blunt style ( I loved his debate with Diane Swonk about a year ago, where he "dismantled her conceits" with considerable flair ) I parted company with Schiff and all the other damn brokers and newsletter pundits out there where they swear you have to be in the precious metals [U]stocks to 'see the real action'.

After six years watching every turn of these markets, I conclude that's stock-broker and newsletter writer biased crap. You can place a big position in the metals themselves, (NOT the pooled metals paper ETF's!) and over the long haul of this bull market do every bit as well as having small speculative positions in the juniors. IMHO, juniors are for starry eyed speculators. Getting a lock-down position on a large chunk of the actual precious metals and sitting stubbornly through every turn of the market is where the true investors are to be found.

Finster is right - but a lot of people won't listen to that advice.