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seanm123
02-27-08, 08:43 PM
Hey Folks,

First post here, I have been following this site since last summer and based upon the clarity of the arguments provided here, I purchased my first substantial gold investment via the GLD ETF back in August.

Thanks to all for the sage advice and kudos to the analytical skills of the itulip members. Many predictions have been spot on and I am looking forward to more sound recommendations.

My question to any itulip member would be what is your opinion on expanding a portion of a portfolio into this new ETF UGA.

Fire away with opinions, I have yet to find any recommendations that gas prices will fall, and the sentiment appears positive for appreciation here and other places like the oil drum website.


And EJ if you are reading this take care of Mega, his promiscuous
posting along with others makes this site very worthwhile.

Jim Nickerson
02-27-08, 09:34 PM
Hey Folks,

First post here, I have been following this site since last summer and based upon the clarity of the arguments provided here, I purchased my first substantial gold investment via the GLD ETF back in August.

Thanks to all for the sage advice and kudos to the analytical skills of the itulip members. Many predictions have been spot on and I am looking forward to more sound recommendations.

My question to any itulip member would be what is your opinion on expanding a portion of a portfolio into this new ETF UGA.

Fire away with opinions, I have yet to find any recommendations that gas prices will fall, and the sentiment appears positive for appreciation here and other places like the oil drum website.


And EJ if you are reading this take care of Mega, his promiscuous
posting along with others makes this site very worthwhile.

Welcome to iTulip, I look forward to your contributions.

It sure would help my old, tired, arthritic fingers if you would put up some sort of link to the new ETF UGA. Sure I can search for it as can anyone else, but I'm not going to look for it and perhaps other will or may not either.

Put up a link, please, sean, and perhaps you'll draw some opinions.

zoog
02-27-08, 09:42 PM
Hey Folks,

First post here, I have been following this site since last summer and based upon the clarity of the arguments provided here, I purchased my first substantial gold investment via the GLD ETF back in August.

Thanks to all for the sage advice and kudos to the analytical skills of the itulip members. Many predictions have been spot on and I am looking forward to more sound recommendations.

My question to any itulip member would be what is your opinion on expanding a portion of a portfolio into this new ETF UGA.

Fire away with opinions, I have yet to find any recommendations that gas prices will fall, and the sentiment appears positive for appreciation here and other places like the oil drum website.


And EJ if you are reading this take care of Mega, his promiscuous
posting along with others makes this site very worthwhile.

Hm, hadn't heard about this new ETF. It doesn't seem like retail gasoline prices in the US are going down anytime soon, they've been on a slow but steady incline since 1999 or so.

The ratio between crude oil spot price and retail gas price is up around what has been an unsustainable spike point in the past. This could be resolved either by lower oil prices or higher gas prices. With crude at $100 or so, gasoline would have to be over $5 / gallon to bring the ratio back down to the "normal" 15 to 20 range. But perhaps this divergence is here to stay, I don't know. It has to be putting a hurt on companies involved in refining and distributing gasoline.

http://img185.imageshack.us/img185/4018/gasoilratiozi7.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

http://img185.imageshack.us/img185/772/gasoilyoymq1.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

It's possible that recession could reduce demand enough to lower gasoline prices, but I doubt it would be significant if your investment horizon is long-term. The only other price risk I could think of would be the government stepping in to subsidize the retail cost of gasoline in some way, such as opening up the "strategic reserves" as I believe they did or at least threatened to do post-Katrina. Again though, I would expect these to have only a temporary effect.

Found a SeekingAlpha article (http://www.itulip.com/article/66321-first-gasoline-etf-comes-to-market?source=feed) about UGA. Looks like the fund tracks futures contracts on gasoline, rather than actual retail pump prices. I don't know how much difference there is.


But his staff doesn't wait until the contracts expire. Instead, they roll from one contract to the next within two weeks of expiration. That exposes the funds to the forces of backwardation and contango. In fact, the gasoline markets are currently in very strong contango: the March contract is valued at just $2.56/gallon, while the April contract costs $2.72/gallon. If those prices hold, the fund (or any investor) rolling from the March to April contract will effectively lose money on the deal.I've had to read the definitions of "backwardation" and "contango" before but I never remember them. They sound like dance moves, so if you're an awkward white guy like me, they might give you some trouble.:D

EDIT: Oh what... now SeekingAlpha links get mangled to itulip.com/whatever-the-link too? C'mon.

Fine. Here's the entire article.

Also, http://www.unitedstatesgasolinefund.com/


As the price of gasoline goes up at the pump, don't get angry. The developers of a new exchange-traded fund want you to get even.<!--more-->
The United States Gasoline Fund (AMEX: UGA) opened trading Tuesday with a mandate making it the first ETF to directly track gas prices. UGA is marketed by Victoria Bay Asset Management.
"It's natural to increase investors' choices by bringing out a gasoline fund," said John Hyland, the firm's chief investment officer. "We're not suggesting it's a hot fuel and worth investing in at this point. We just feel that over the long-run, gasoline is a major commodity and it deserves representation."
Along with oil, natural gas and heating oil, gasoline is one of the four major energy commodities traded in the U.S., and Victoria Bay either offers or is developing an ETF tied to each commodity. The company was first-to-market in crude and natural gas ETFs, with the United States Oil Fund (AMEX: USO) launching in April 2006 and the United States Natural Gas Fund (AMEX: UNG) launching nearly a year later. It has also filed for a heating oil fund, which is expected to launch soon.
"We only deal with one commodity in each fund," Hyland said. "Our goal with each fund is to match in percentage terms the daily movements of each commodity's futures."
With gasoline, for example, the fund tracks futures contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange. "We're always watching whatever contract is about to expire next—the closest one to expiration," Hyland said. "Those are called front-month contracts."
But his staff doesn't wait until the contracts expire. Instead, they roll from one contract to the next within two weeks of expiration. That exposes the funds to the forces of backwardation and contango. In fact, the gasoline markets are currently in very strong contango: the March contract is valued at just $2.56/gallon, while the April contract costs $2.72/gallon. If those prices hold, the fund (or any investor) rolling from the March to April contract will effectively lose money on the deal.
There are funds that aim to mitigate these impacts—Victoria Bay, for instance, offers the United States 12 Month Oil Fund (AMEX: USL (http://www.itulip.com/symbol/usl)). It spreads its investments across the next 12 months of oil contracts, with the goal of mitigating the impact of contango.
But the new gas fund is straight-up. Like all commodity funds, however, UGA will be buoyed by interest income. You only have to put up a portion of your cash to buy a full futures position, so the funds are able to invest their collateral cash in Treasuries.
The annual expense ratio of UGA is expected to wind up at 0.69%. Victoria Bay is registered as a commodity pool operator and has $1.1 billion in assets under management as of December 31, 2007.
"Innovation is at the core of the Amex identity and UGA, the first fund to follow gasoline, is a welcome addition to our product lineup," said Scott Ebner, senior vice president of Amex's ETF marketplace in a statement.

seanm123
02-27-08, 09:43 PM
Jim,

I enjoy your posts very much as well.
Here is the link as requested.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/66321-first-gasoline-etf-comes-to-market


Seeking Alpha has highlighted this ETF on their home page. Not sure what kind of "lift" that will give it but is anyone predicting gasoline prices to decline?

metalman
02-27-08, 09:48 PM
Jim,

I enjoy your posts very much as well.
Here is the link as requested.

http://www.itulip.com/article/66321-first-gasoline-etf-comes-to-market


Seeking Alpha has highlighted this ETF on their home page. Not sure what kind of "lift" that will give it but is anyone predicting gasoline prices to decline?

hey, ej & fred. how about a "where's paul volcker?" button for itulipers. kind of an inside joke, if ya know what i mean.

seanm123
02-27-08, 10:28 PM
Zoog, refinery issues as outlined elsewhere,who is to know real or not? I don't think our government will subsidize due to the pay as you go program in Congress.

Other long issues would be Obama and Hillary who are threatening some kind of withdrawal from Iraq. A loss of 500 K barrels a day of supply of crude to the USA and perhaps 3 million barrels a day of supply worldwide due to an Iraq withdrawal would surely add to the price of gasoline here in the states.

Sorry about the munged link Jim, I gather that will go away if and when the itulip moderators approve of my postings.

As far as the Volker comment Metalman it's mainstream now. Average Joe knows plenty about Helicopter Ben.

Jim Nickerson
02-27-08, 10:40 PM
Found a SeekingAlpha article (http://www.itulip.com/article/66321-first-gasoline-etf-comes-to-market?source=feed) about UGA. Looks like the fund tracks futures contracts on gasoline, rather than actual retail pump prices. I don't know how much difference there is.

I've had to read the definitions of "backwardation" and "contango" before but I never remember them. They sound like dance moves, so if you're an awkward white guy like me, they might give you some trouble.:D

EDIT: Oh what... now SeekingAlpha links get mangled to itulip.com/whatever-the-link too? C'mon.

Fine. Here's the entire article.

Also, http://www.unitedstatesgasolinefund.com/

Sean, lucky you, Zoog is not a lazy dude! He gets that I guess from the extra energy (in his body) he saves from not having to pump his own gas when filling up in Oregon--I guess that is still the law in OR.

First comment, diversification in my mind is a good thing, not that I always have achieved it. When one picks a company that does one thing, to me it is a risky bet, or riskier bet. Picking from the ever-growing number of commodity ETF's or ETN's seems to be getting into the same area of investing where one can very narrowly focus one's attention. UGA fits that category of narrow focus, as does USO, OIL etc. The instruments continue to emerge that allow people to focus as narrowly or as broadly as they may wish. Personally I tend to opt for broader diversification.

It's like if you were hunting rabbits (which I don't do, yet) and had to kill one in order to eat, which had you rather have, a single shot .22 rifle or a shot-gun? I'd take the shot-gun and deal with spitting out the pellets, but I would fur sure be eating a rabbit.

Here's another link I ran up on yesterday with more commodity ETN's.
http://www.ipathetn.com/commodities.jsp?c=M7201&rf=
These offer some narrower-scoped bets.

SECOND ITEM: I hope I am not inappropriately going to rant about something that truly represents an error vs. the possibility that it represents someone at iTulip's "control-room" monkeying or should I say ******* with links that posters may put up.

It seems, as zoog noted, that his initial link to seekingalpha apparently got messed with or corrupted through some system error, and then the same thing occurred to sean's link to the same post.

Insecurity is an unfortunate character trait, but when it results in anti-intellectualism, it is right down there at the bottom of the shit pile of bad character traits which include dishonesty, greed, envy and hypocrisy. In my mind anti-intellectualism is destructive as it pertains to people choosing to spend time at iTulip attempting to learn something hopefully that make reading this site worthwhile. References are good in intellectual discourse, and any screwing with them when they clearly are not spam is incredibly dumb on someone's part at iTulip.


FRED, or whoever is ******* with links that people put up, I think you are making a serious error in judgement and defeating whatever purpose EJ may have in mind regarding making iTulip something above average in the web world of investment information--but that is just this one man's opinion.

seanm123
02-27-08, 11:12 PM
I agree to a point Jim about censorship, but firsthand I can tell you the spammers are relentless,so keep your shorts on and take the clip out of the gun, even if you pay a a few ducats for a subscription. It is more an issue of controlling spam than the actual links.


Thanks for the advice, and I looking forward to comments from any poster on gasoline prices near or long term.

sadsack
02-27-08, 11:22 PM
If your aim is to arbitrage personal fuel expenditures, then the ETF might be a good choice.

There's a pretty informative thread here on ways to capititalize on "peak oil":

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3272

Gasoline, being further down the "food chain" wrt petroleum production, may only partially capture any gains to be had from the advent of peak oil; i.e., "cut out the middleman."

zoog
02-28-08, 01:27 AM
Ah Jim, what would we do without you.:D

Mind you, it took some searching to finally dig up the actual fund website. Mostly I found link after link after link of press releases and financial news articles (i.e. thinly-veiled press releases) about the fund. Wonder how much they spent on advertising?


Sean, lucky you, Zoog is not a lazy dude! He gets that I guess from the extra energy (in his body) he saves from not having to pump his own gas when filling up in Oregon--I guess that is still the law in OR....

Yeah can't pump our own gas. Oregon and New Jersey. I resented it at first, but got used to it after a while. Kinda nice on cold rainy days to just stick the credit card out the window and say "fill er up". On the other hand, I drive into Washington State on occasion and rediscover how much faster I can pump my own gas, swipe my credit card, and be on my way.

GRG55
02-28-08, 02:23 AM
Ah Jim, what would we do without you.:D

Yeah can't pump our own gas. Oregon and New Jersey. I resented it at first, but got used to it after a while. Kinda nice on cold rainy days to just stick the credit card out the window and say "fill er up". On the other hand, I drive into Washington State on occasion and rediscover how much faster I can pump my own gas, swipe my credit card, and be on my way.

What possible justification, in "the land of the free", did the politicos use for this idiotic bit of social engineering? Unskilled job creation? Or did the safety-Nazis decide Oregonians are incapable of handling a hose filled with flammable liquid?

Unbelievable... :p

zoog
02-28-08, 02:47 AM
What possible justification, in "the land of the free", did the politicos use for this idiotic bit of social engineering? Unskilled job creation? Or did the safety-Nazis decide Oregonians are incapable of handling a hose filled with flammable liquid?

Unbelievable... :p

I suspect jobs for otherwise unemployed roustabouts, but the official reasons, ala wikipedia:


All stations in New Jersey and Oregon, however, are mini service; attendants are required to pump gas because customers are barred by statutes in both states from pumping their own gas. Both states prohibited self service in the 1940s because of fears that customers would handle gasoline improperly. Oregon's Department of Environmental Quality has also ordered a ban on self-service gasoline because of inexperienced pumpers being a significant source of groundwater and air pollution. Oregon's state fire marshal has also ordered a ban on self-service gasoline. Today, these states enforce the law because of the rapid increase of drive-offs, where people fill up their car and drive away without paying for gas. In 1982, Oregon voters rejected a ballot measure sponsored by the service station owners, which would have legalized self-service gas.Interestingly, you can pump your own diesel, since it's less flammable.

*T*
02-28-08, 07:13 AM
Why might it fall?

I have heard inventory levels are very high - anyone have any hard data?

Plus the obvious price rationing + recessionary demand destruction.

GRG55
02-28-08, 12:53 PM
Why might it fall?

I have heard inventory levels are very high - anyone have any hard data?

Plus the obvious price rationing + recessionary demand destruction.

Here's a chart of US Mogas inventories by month over some years. You'll see that the stocks increase going into the spring and are drawn down during the summer driving season each year. Note the recent stock levels compared to historical data (go back 20 years, when consumption was probably a lot lower than today) - you decide if inventories are "very high".

Crude pricing going into this recession is going to be partly a function of how aggresively (if ?) these inventories get rebuilt.

The recent inventory trend is up, as is usual at this time of year and the most recent weekly data (for week ended 22 Feb) shows inventories at 116,600 thousand barrels.

You can get more data than you ever imagined could want here:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/info_glance/petroleum.html

Finally, the crack spreads are very tight right now, and have been for quite a few months. Wholesale prices of gasoline will not fall much unless, and until, there's some easing of crude input prices. Otherwise there's going to be a lot of refinery mainentance shutdowns as they take them offline because there's no money to be made.


<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=675 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=Title1 align=middle bgColor=#a8c7e6>U.S. Finished Motor Gasoline Ending Stocks (Thousand Barrels)</TD></TR><TR><TD height=2></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width=675 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#0066cc><TH class=G2>Year</TH><TH class=G>Jan</TH><TH class=G>Feb</TH><TH class=G>Mar</TH><TH class=G>Apr</TH><TH class=G>May</TH><TH class=G>Jun</TH><TH class=G>Jul</TH><TH class=G>Aug</TH><TH class=G>Sep</TH><TH class=G>Oct</TH><TH class=G>Nov</TH><TH class=G>Dec</TH></TR><TR><TD class=B4>1981</TD><TD class=B3>226,603</TD><TD class=B3>229,921</TD><TD class=B3>232,430</TD><TD class=B3>223,352</TD><TD class=B3>212,683</TD><TD class=B3>194,008</TD><TD class=B3>185,703</TD><TD class=B3>188,643</TD><TD class=B3>190,731</TD><TD class=B3>190,500</TD><TD class=B3>200,643</TD><TD class=B3>203,469</TD></TR><TR><TD class=B4>1982</TD><TD class=B3>213,268</TD><TD class=B3>208,450</TD><TD class=B3>198,108</TD><TD class=B3>178,597</TD><TD class=B3>173,111</TD><TD class=B3>177,139</TD><TD class=B3>182,667</TD><TD class=B3>185,167</TD><TD class=B3>191,102</TD><TD class=B3>192,412</TD><TD class=B3>189,380</TD><TD class=B3>194,498</TD></TR><TR><TD class=B4>1983</TD><TD class=B3>207,212</TD><TD class=B3>206,531</TD><TD class=B3>182,723</TD><TD class=B3>182,801</TD><TD class=B3>185,376</TD><TD class=B3>182,864</TD><TD class=B3>189,846</TD><TD class=B3>184,842</TD><TD class=B3>189,316</TD><TD class=B3>187,092</TD><TD class=B3>196,022</TD><TD class=B3>185,503</TD></TR><TR><TD class=B4>1984</TD><TD class=B3>185,546</TD><TD class=B3>196,651</TD><TD class=B3>202,120</TD><TD class=B3>207,141</TD><TD class=B3>210,404</TD><TD class=B3>204,143</TD><TD class=B3>199,736</TD><TD class=B3>185,867</TD><TD class=B3>194,102</TD><TD class=B3>193,039</TD><TD class=B3>198,538</TD><TD class=B3>205,192</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=13 height=5></TD></TR><TR><TD class=B4>1985</TD><TD class=B3>198,358</TD><TD class=B3>189,190</TD><TD class=B3>185,640</TD><TD class=B3>181,808</TD><TD class=B3>181,080</TD><TD class=B3>186,248</TD><TD class=B3>192,065</TD><TD class=B3>188,122</TD><TD class=B3>187,449</TD><TD class=B3>180,152</TD><TD class=B3>183,260</TD><TD class=B3>190,308</TD></TR><TR><TD class=B4>1986</TD><TD class=B3>201,067</TD><TD class=B3>205,429</TD><TD class=B3>184,010</TD><TD class=B3>173,858</TD><TD class=B3>187,813</TD><TD class=B3>195,770</TD><TD class=B3>189,911</TD><TD class=B3>187,337</TD><TD class=B3>195,993</TD><TD class=B3>184,446</TD><TD class=B3>190,451</TD><TD class=B3>194,242</TD></TR><TR><TD class=B4>1987</TD><TD class=B3>210,603</TD><TD class=B3>206,564</TD><TD class=B3>204,970</TD><TD class=B3>200,989</TD><TD class=B3>195,911</TD><TD class=B3>192,569</TD><TD class=B3>188,878</TD><TD class=B3>187,987</TD><TD class=B3>191,190</TD><TD class=B3>181,833</TD><TD class=B3>188,069</TD><TD class=B3>188,811</TD></TR><TR><TD class=B4>1988</TD><TD class=B3>200,798</TD><TD class=B3>202,985</TD><TD class=B3>194,401</TD><TD class=B3>190,135</TD><TD class=B3>188,817</TD><TD class=B3>174,864</TD><TD class=B3>179,442</TD><TD class=B3>183,505</TD><TD class=B3>182,671</TD><TD class=B3>180,361</TD><TD class=B3>183,911</TD><TD class=B3>189,852</TD></TR><TR><TD class=B4>1989</TD><TD class=B3>205,714</TD><TD class=B3>203,744</TD><TD class=B3>189,135</TD><TD class=B3>188,474</TD><TD class=B3>183,436</TD><TD class=B3>178,028</TD><TD class=B3>190,110</TD><TD class=B3>182,051</TD><TD class=B3>185,579</TD><TD class=B3>182,585</TD><TD class=B3>185,016</TD><TD class=B3>177,053</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=13 height=5></TD></TR><TR><TD class=B4>1990</TD><TD class=B3>196,312</TD><TD class=B3>201,032</TD><TD class=B3>185,548</TD><TD class=B3>184,188</TD><TD class=B3>178,337</TD><TD class=B3>175,546</TD><TD class=B3>179,673</TD><TD class=B3>172,436</TD><TD class=B3>187,765</TD><TD class=B3>180,187</TD><TD class=B3>176,940</TD><TD class=B3>180,621</TD></TR><TR><TD class=B4>1991</TD><TD class=B3>185,651</TD><TD class=B3>178,586</TD><TD class=B3>171,264</TD><TD class=B3>169,260</TD><TD class=B3>172,196</TD><TD class=B3>176,997</TD><TD class=B3>171,507</TD><TD class=B3>171,718</TD><TD class=B3>177,580</TD><TD class=B3>166,593</TD><TD class=B3>173,430</TD><TD class=B3>181,708</TD></TR><TR><TD class=B4>1992</TD><TD class=B3>191,134</TD><TD class=B3>190,504</TD><TD class=B3>181,876</TD><TD class=B3>183,486</TD><TD class=B3>185,776</TD><TD class=B3>188,066</TD><TD class=B3>180,357</TD><TD class=B3>166,518</TD><TD class=B3>168,305</TD><TD class=B3>167,047</TD><TD class=B3>176,572</TD><TD class=B3>177,565</TD></TR><TR><TD class=B4>1993</TD><TD class=B3>197,765</TD><TD class=B3>201,926</TD><TD class=B3>188,984</TD><TD class=B3>183,950</TD><TD class=B3>186,841</TD><TD class=B3>184,191</TD><TD class=B3>176,754</TD><TD class=B3>166,735</TD><TD class=B3>171,188</TD><TD class=B3>175,583</TD><TD class=B3>182,944</TD><TD class=B3>187,051</TD></TR><TR><TD class=B4>1994</TD><TD class=B3>194,077</TD><TD class=B3>186,204</TD><TD class=B3>175,639</TD><TD class=B3>176,415</TD><TD class=B3>179,046</TD><TD class=B3>176,873</TD><TD class=B3>172,932</TD><TD class=B3>167,589</TD><TD class=B3>169,244</TD><TD class=B3>161,678</TD><TD class=B3>176,564</TD><TD class=B3>175,859</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=13 height=5></TD></TR><TR><TD class=B4>1995</TD><TD class=B3>182,724</TD><TD class=B3>179,961</TD><TD class=B3>167,835</TD><TD class=B3>167,056</TD><TD class=B3>167,149</TD><TD class=B3>163,493</TD><TD class=B3>165,970</TD><TD class=B3>154,587</TD><TD class=B3>158,884</TD><TD class=B3>155,607</TD><TD class=B3>155,628</TD><TD class=B3>161,277</TD></TR><TR><TD class=B4>1996</TD><TD class=B3>168,723</TD><TD class=B3>168,439</TD><TD class=B3>158,304</TD><TD class=B3>159,759</TD><TD class=B3>161,804</TD><TD class=B3>163,829</TD><TD class=B3>163,661</TD><TD class=B3>154,872</TD><TD class=B3>161,335</TD><TD class=B3>149,059</TD><TD class=B3>150,719</TD><TD class=B3>156,990</TD></TR><TR><TD class=B4>1997</TD><TD class=B3>164,732</TD><TD class=B3>161,529</TD><TD class=B3>153,876</TD><TD class=B3>151,780</TD><TD class=B3>158,080</TD><TD class=B3>163,737</TD><TD class=B3>150,899</TD><TD class=B3>149,624</TD><TD class=B3>157,862</TD><TD class=B3>157,907</TD><TD class=B3>161,576</TD><TD class=B3>166,357</TD></TR><TR><TD class=B4>1998</TD><TD class=B3>174,306</TD><TD class=B3>173,116</TD><TD class=B3>166,816</TD><TD class=B3>168,177</TD><TD class=B3>173,898</TD><TD class=B3>177,298</TD><TD class=B3>172,067</TD><TD class=B3>167,396</TD><TD class=B3>163,928</TD><TD class=B3>159,952</TD><TD class=B3>167,538</TD><TD class=B3>171,796</TD></TR><TR><TD class=B4>1999</TD><TD class=B3>183,211</TD><TD class=B3>179,405</TD><TD class=B3>169,246</TD><TD class=B3>171,277</TD><TD class=B3>176,630</TD><TD class=B3>173,292</TD><TD class=B3>164,616</TD><TD class=B3>159,662</TD><TD class=B3>162,348</TD><TD class=B3>161,397</TD><TD class=B3>163,552</TD><TD class=B3>154,093</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=13 height=5></TD></TR><TR><TD class=B4>2000</TD><TD class=B3>165,305</TD><TD class=B3>156,430</TD><TD class=B3>157,121</TD><TD class=B3>160,618</TD><TD class=B3>162,238</TD><TD class=B3>164,526</TD><TD class=B3>164,620</TD><TD class=B3>151,042</TD><TD class=B3>154,235</TD><TD class=B3>147,379</TD><TD class=B3>156,714</TD><TD class=B3>153,004</TD></TR><TR><TD class=B4>2001</TD><TD class=B3>158,674</TD><TD class=B3>154,584</TD><TD class=B3>144,675</TD><TD class=B3>150,292</TD><TD class=B3>160,088</TD><TD class=B3>169,394</TD><TD class=B3>162,300</TD><TD class=B3>150,584</TD><TD class=B3>158,038</TD><TD class=B3>160,223</TD><TD class=B3>161,235</TD><TD class=B3>161,459</TD></TR><TR><TD class=B4>2002</TD><TD class=B3>169,671</TD><TD class=B3>165,513</TD><TD class=B3>159,832</TD><TD class=B3>167,010</TD><TD class=B3>168,320</TD><TD class=B3>167,565</TD><TD class=B3>164,814</TD><TD class=B3>157,333</TD><TD class=B3>157,359</TD><TD class=B3>148,224</TD><TD class=B3>158,046</TD><TD class=B3>161,902</TD></TR><TR><TD class=B4>2003</TD><TD class=B3>157,207</TD><TD class=B3>151,082</TD><TD class=B3>144,680</TD><TD class=B3>151,430</TD><TD class=B3>155,207</TD><TD class=B3>152,998</TD><TD class=B3>150,053</TD><TD class=B3>145,212</TD><TD class=B3>146,118</TD><TD class=B3>140,398</TD><TD class=B3>146,280</TD><TD class=B3>146,884</TD></TR><TR><TD class=B4>2004</TD><TD class=B3>138,650</TD><TD class=B3>133,499</TD><TD class=B3>132,089</TD><TD class=B3>133,127</TD><TD class=B3>137,200</TD><TD class=B3>140,218</TD><TD class=B3>140,525</TD><TD class=B3>137,945</TD><TD class=B3>135,692</TD><TD class=B3>138,420</TD><TD class=B3>141,474</TD><TD class=B3>143,204</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=13 height=5></TD></TR><TR><TD class=B4>2005</TD><TD class=B3>145,645</TD><TD class=B3>146,376</TD><TD class=B3>136,404</TD><TD class=B3>141,088</TD><TD class=B3>140,704</TD><TD class=B3>140,939</TD><TD class=B3>133,560</TD><TD class=B3>122,533</TD><TD class=B3>127,331</TD><TD class=B3>131,287</TD><TD class=B3>135,441</TD><TD class=B3>135,808</TD></TR><TR><TD class=B4>2006</TD><TD class=B3>142,175</TD><TD class=B3>137,882</TD><TD class=B3>124,152</TD><TD class=B3>115,411</TD><TD class=B3>121,471</TD><TD class=B3>119,148</TD><TD class=B3>117,930</TD><TD class=B3>116,560</TD><TD class=B3>120,495</TD><TD class=B3>112,819</TD><TD class=B3>113,798</TD><TD class=B3>116,097</TD></TR><TR><TD class=B4>2007</TD><TD class=B3>124,990</TD><TD class=B3>115,694</TD><TD class=B3>108,821</TD><TD class=B3>108,458</TD><TD class=B3>114,720</TD><TD class=B3>116,702</TD><TD class=B3>114,409</TD><TD class=B3>110,671</TD><TD class=B3>112,274</TD><TD class=B3>107,710</TD><TD class=B3>108,799</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

zoog
02-28-08, 12:54 PM
Why might it fall?

I have heard inventory levels are very high - anyone have any hard data?

Plus the obvious price rationing + recessionary demand destruction.

Well, according to EIA data, finished gasoline stocks have been declining for the past few years here in the US (black line on the chart below). The "total" gasoline stocks line (dark green) is the finished gasoline plus blending components (pale green line rising in the past few years). Why we have more and more blending components but less and less finished gasoline is beyond me.

I apologize for the spaghetti chart, but the strategic petroleum reserve is so massive it squishes all the other crude supplies and refined products down at the bottom.

http://img409.imageshack.us/img409/4503/petrostocksbo4.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

GRG55
02-28-08, 01:11 PM
I suspect jobs for otherwise unemployed roustabouts, but the official reasons, ala wikipedia:



All stations in New Jersey and Oregon, however, are mini service; attendants are required to pump gas because customers are barred by statutes in both states from pumping their own gas. Both states prohibited self service in the 1940s because of fears that customers would handle gasoline improperly. Oregon's Department of Environmental Quality has also ordered a ban on self-service gasoline because of inexperienced pumpers being a significant source of groundwater and air pollution. Oregon's state fire marshal has also ordered a ban on self-service gasoline. Today, these states enforce the law because of the rapid increase of drive-offs, where people fill up their car and drive away without paying for gas. In 1982, Oregon voters rejected a ballot measure sponsored by the service station owners, which would have legalized self-service gas.

...
Thank gawd all those high school kids they hire as pump jockeys are "experienced"... ;)


Interestingly, you can pump your own diesel, since it's less flammable.

Does the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality make you go on a course? Or do they think that spilling diesel all over your shoes doesn't create "a significant source of groundwater and air pollution"?

Just askin'