Paul B. Farrell loses his mind?

[FRED]

http://www.itulip.com/images/fruitcakeMED.pngFolks, we need your help. The usually insightful MarketWatch/FOX News financial columnist Paul B. Farrell seems to have lost it. Please read his article and tell us if you can make any sense of it. We can't, but we try below.You Vote: What Megabubble Will Be The Next To Bring Us Down (http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/industries/media/article/vote-megabubble-bring_475006_15.html)
Feb. 12, 2008 (Paul B. Farrell - FOX News)

ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. -- Hollywood tag lines fit Exxon Mobil's $40 billion profit as well as the movies: "There will be Blood. There will be Greed. There will be Vengeance."

Our "war of civilizations" is not of theologies but a primal battle to control basic resources essential to survival. Yes, there is blood ... and oil ... and greed ... and vengeance ... and wars for survival.

At the highest level, this war's being waged in the elite towers of Wall Street and London and Dubai and Singapore: Quants in Turnbull & Asher shirts trading commodity derivatives, gunning for megabonuses, soaring high, like stealth bombers detached from the bloody fighting 40,000 feet below.
Speaking from street level via FOX News, can anyone add a lot to the discussion of Peak Oil the folks have been driving on this topic for years over at TheOilDrum.com (http://www.theoildrum.com)? That's also how Eric Janszen's radar reads the world in Harpers Magazine's "The Next Bubble." Inside a thought-bubble common on Wall Street, he invents a new economic theory from the simple observation "that the Internet and the housing hyperinflations transpired within a period of 10 years."
"Inside a thought-bubble common on Wall Street"? Nah. Just trying to teach you how it works, Paul. If you don't like it, go back to your pals at Morgan Stanley and complain to them. Get it? Two bubbles, 10 years apart: An anomaly, yet suddenly we have a bizarre new economic theory: "There will and must be many more such booms, for without them the United States can no longer function. The bubble cycle has replaced the business cycle."
Oops! Paul forgot to read the website again. Yes, we did literally warn that the Bubble cycle is replacing the business cycle (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=2405#post2405) three years ago, but it was a warning, Paul, not a recommendation. Duh.

The first time (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=25924#post25924) Paul got it wrong we figured it was because he was in a hurry to meet deadline. But twice in two weeks? On the same story? What's with that? Warning, this "new economy" is a tired old theory driven by utopian dreams of uninterrupted growth and perpetual prosperity, one that, unfortunately, consumes modern economic and political thought. It rejects contrary evidence, is blind to alternatives. Recessions are bad. In this latest spin, we're asked to believe that the economy will only survive if it endures bubble after bubble after bubble, like a raging volcano of oil bubbling from the earth's core, insatiable, a planet consuming its own life blood.
Like a raging volcano! Now that's some serious writing going on there.

Paul goes on to says some nice things about the book americasbubbleeconomy and the accuracy of the predictions it makes. Paul might also check these out (http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=7837#post7837).

Anyway, folks, read the whole story (http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/industries/media/article/vote-megabubble-bring_475006_15.html) and tell us what you make of it. Perhaps it's just another case of the FOX Business columnist doth protest too much.

iTulip Select (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1032): The Investment Thesis for the Next Cycle™

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[babbittd]

Warning, this "new economy" is a tired old theory driven by utopian dreams of uninterrupted growth and perpetual prosperity, one that, unfortunately, consumes modern economic and political thought. It rejects contrary evidence, is blind to alternatives.

The author appears to be hell bent on not just attacking the the bubble cycle theory, but also in attemping to convince the reader that E.J. thinks that the total dominance of the FIRE economy is a "good" development.

[zoog]

Hey at least your Harpers article bothered him enough to write about it twice. Free press, why complain?:)

[metalman]

Hey at least your Harpers article bothered him enough to write about it twice. Free press, why complain?:)

jeezus. he took the bait and wrote again? you da man. "just spell my name right" he said.

[santafe2]

As I tell my kids, if your ideas don't piss off a fair number of people, you're not really trying. The bubble cycle hypothesis is a good one and it's pissing people off left, right and center. Well done.

When the oil president declares in his last year, the need to control global climate change while every contender for the job is declaring their support for clean energy, I think we can be sure there will be subsidies for any non-oil form of energy. It's a bubble in waiting.

One thing the rest of the world still doesn't understand about the US is that we are very slow to change but once we decide we need to change we pretend we invented the idea.

Coal, nuclear and renewable energy strategies in the US will receive a trillion dollars in support over the next 8-10 years. People who understand this now will do very well.

[FRED]

As I tell my kids, if your ideas don't piss off a fair number of people, you're not really trying. The bubble cycle hypothesis is a good one and it's pissing people off left, right and center. Well done.

When the oil president declares in his last year, the need to control global climate change while every contender for the job is declaring their support for clean energy, I think we can be sure there will be subsidies for any non-oil form of energy. It's a bubble in waiting.

One thing the rest of the world still doesn't understand about the US is that we are very slow to change but once we decide we need to change we pretend we invented the idea.

Coal, nuclear and renewable energy strategies in the US will receive a trillion dollars in support over the next 8-10 years. People who understand this now will do very well.

You got it! So do the authors of the blog Cogitamus who describe the Harper's article as a must read (http://www.cogitamusblog.com/2008/02/must-read.html).

Paul's a great guy and we like his column but calling iTulip pro-Wall Street? Them's fightin' words!

[jk]

as i read it, farrell thinks that peak oil trumps ka-poom theory, that we're headed for a mad max world that will not allow the continuation of life as we know it. the assumption of ka-poom and the designation of alt energy and infrastructure as the next bubble assumes that green energy [including conservation] can provide a smooth transition from rising to flat and then falling global oil consumption. we've been around this block many times in our discussions here, so i'll leave it at that. the investment choice is whether to invest in alt energy and heavy equipment on the one hand, or food supplies and shotgun shells on the other.

[bill]

He didn’t loose his mind, he’s just a little fogged up in Arroyo Grande. When the fog clears from time to time and he looks to the west he will get an idea of where the next energy source will come from.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diablo_Canyon_Power_Plant


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[Ann]

He didn’t loose his mind, he’s just a little fogged up in Arroyo Grande. When the fog clears from time to time and he looks to the west he will get an idea of where the next energy source will come from.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diablo_Canyon_Power_Plant


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Oh my! Note to Farrell's editor: Before publishing his next column, make sure he's taken his medication.

JK, someone here said you are in the business. What do you prescribe for the high anxiety doom monger?

Alprazolam Intensol
Alzapam
Ativan
BuSpar
Centrax
Equanil
Inderal
Inderal
Inderide
Ipran
Klonopin
Lexapro
Libritabs
Librium
Lipoxide
Loraz
Lorazepam Intensol
Luvox
Meprospan
Miltown
Neuramate
Novo-Alprazol
Romazicon
Paxil
Paxipam
Serax
T-Quil
Tranxene
Valium
Valrelease
Versed
Xanax

[donalds]

Seems to me there is a contradiction between deft deflation and the institutional, public financing of a boom in alternative/infrastructure production. In other words, it is not clear to this reader at least where the taxpayer subsidized investment will derive from to fund said investments/production.

With a deepening recession, combined with debt deflation (and the flip side: credit contraction - fewer lenders/borrowers), from where will the tax revenues originate? With declining national, state and local tax revenues, along with growing deficits, where exactly is the government inspired private investment boom in alternative energy/infrastructure going to come from?

Seems to me to support any such assertion some empirical analysis must be forthcoming. Said analysis would also have to be combined with conjecture as to how capital (private) and government (public) cooperation would come to fruition. In what manner would the decisions on the part of a multitude of private entities and the national government that would institute said developments unfold? Mere speculation is not good enough. Where is that analysis?

[jk]

Seems to me there is a contradiction between deft deflation and the institutional, public financing of a boom in alternative/infrastructure production. In other words, it is not clear to this reader at least where the taxpayer subsidized investment will derive from to fund said investments/production.

With a deepening recession, combined with debt deflation (and the flip side: credit contraction - fewer lenders/borrowers), from where will the tax revenues originate? With declining national, state and local tax revenues, along with growing deficits, where exactly is the government inspired private investment boom in alternative energy/infrastructure going to come from?

Seems to me to support any such assertion some empirical analysis must be forthcoming. Said analysis would also have to be combined with conjecture as to how capital (private) and government (public) cooperation would come to fruition. In what manner would the decisions on the part of a multitude of private entities and the national government that would institute said developments unfold? Mere speculation is not good enough. Where is that analysis?
programs will not be funded by taxes. they will have seed money by borrowing. also the public-private infrastructure partnerships will generate fee revenue.

[jk]

Oh my! Note to Farrell's editor: Before publishing his next column, make sure he's taken his medication.

JK, someone here said you are in the business. What do you prescribe for the high anxiety doom monger?

i'm not sure if you're serious, ann. [actually, i doubt very much you're serious, but what the hay.]

Alprazolam Intensol- never heard of the intensol. alprazolam is useful for panics, especially, but tends to cause dependency.
Alzapam- huh? do you mean alprazolam?
Ativan- generically, lorazepam. useful anxiolytic.
BuSpar- pretty much worthless, in my opinion, except as an add-on for obsessive compulsive disorder.
Centrax- don't know it.
Equanil- old drug. don't write it.
Inderal- useful for tremor and as needed for performance anxiety.
Inderide- don't know it
Ipran- ditto
Klonopin- useful anxiolytic, sometimes too sedating. useful for panic.
Lexapro- ssri- used for depression, can be used for ocd, useful for anxiety, especially the ruminative variety. this is the type of med i'd use for a worried doomer.
Libritabs- don't use
Librium- use it only for alcohol detox.
Lipoxide-huh?
Lorazepam- generic ativan, see above
Lorazepam Intensol- never heard of "intensol"
Luvox- like lexapro but usually too sedating
Meprospan- old drug, may be liver toxic iirc
Miltown- same
Neuramate- huh?
Novo-Alprazol- huh?
Romazicon- huh?
Paxil- ssri like lexapro. can cause weight gain and be somewhat sedating. can cause terrible withdrawal problems when you stop it. for those reasons i don't prescribe it much.
Paxipam- huh?
Serax- anxiolytic like ativan
T-Quil-huh?
Tranxene- anxiolytic like ativan
Valium- anxiolytic like ativan
Valrelease- huh?
Versed- this is an antihistamine used for anxiety. sometimes useful in special instances when you want to avoid the abusable and dependency causing benzodiazepines like ativan, et al, or for some reason you want the anti-histaminic effect too.
Xanax- brand name for alprazolam

you forgot to list
zoloft [generic is sertraline] another ssri
and how could you forget PROZAC - the first ssri on the market here. very useful for depression, anxiety and ocd, but i've had problems with the generic. the generic doesn't seem to work for about 10% of brand-name prozac responders.
you also forgot effexor and serzone and cymbalta and remeron - other antidepressants with anti-anxiety effects.

conclusion- brand name prozac or generic sertraline for a worried doomer. [watch out for sexual side effects- lower libido and difficulty reaching orgasm]:D

[Ann]

i'm not sure if you're serious, ann. [actually, i doubt very much you're serious, but what the hay.]

Alprazolam Intensol- never heard of the intensol. alprazolam is useful for panics, especially, but tends to cause dependency.
Alzapam- huh? do you mean alprazolam?
Ativan- generically, lorazepam. useful anxiolytic.
BuSpar- pretty much worthless, in my opinion, except as an add-on for obsessive compulsive disorder.
Centrax- don't know it.
Equanil- old drug. don't write it.
Inderal- useful for tremor and as needed for performance anxiety.
Inderide- don't know it
Ipran- ditto
Klonopin- useful anxiolytic, sometimes too sedating. useful for panic.
Lexapro- ssri- used for depression, can be used for ocd, useful for anxiety, especially the ruminative variety. this is the type of med i'd use for a worried doomer.
Libritabs- don't use
Librium- use it only for alcohol detox.
Lipoxide-huh?
Lorazepam- generic ativan, see above
Lorazepam Intensol- never heard of "intensol"
Luvox- like lexapro but usually too sedating
Meprospan- old drug, may be liver toxic iirc
Miltown- same
Neuramate- huh?
Novo-Alprazol- huh?
Romazicon- huh?
Paxil- ssri like lexapro. can cause weight gain and be somewhat sedating. can cause terrible withdrawal problems when you stop it. for those reasons i don't prescribe it much.
Paxipam- huh?
Serax- anxiolytic like ativan
T-Quil-huh?
Tranxene- anxiolytic like ativan
Valium- anxiolytic like ativan
Valrelease- huh?
Versed- this is an antihistamine used for anxiety. sometimes useful in special instances when you want to avoid the abusable and dependency causing benzodiazepines like ativan, et al, or for some reason you want the anti-histaminic effect too.
Xanax- brand name for alprazolam

you forgot to list
zoloft [generic is sertraline] another ssri
and how could you forget PROZAC - the first ssri on the market here. very useful for depression, anxiety and ocd, but i've had problems with the generic. the generic doesn't seem to work for about 10% of brand-name prozac responders.
you also forgot effexor and serzone and cymbalta and remeron - other antidepressants with anti-anxiety effects.

conclusion- brand name prozac or generic sertraline for a worried doomer. [watch out for sexual side effects- lower libido and difficulty reaching orgasm]:D

Wow! Quite a response. Thanks! I was kinda kidding but this is actually totally useful.

The recession is going to throw millions of middle aged folks out of work. They're going to run to the doc for some pills. So many choices! If we can figure out what the #1 Recession Anxiety Pill is, maybe we can make some investments and some $$$?

[jk]

Wow! Quite a response. Thanks! I was kinda kidding but this is actually totally useful.

The recession is going to throw millions of middle aged folks out of work. They're going to run to the doc for some pills. So many choices! If we can figure out what the #1 Recession Anxiety Pill is, maybe we can make some investments and some $$$?
too many generics to really make a good investment opportunity. i still kick myself for not buying lilly when i saw how good a drug prozac was when it first came out in the '80s.

[Ann]

too many generics to really make a good investment opportunity. i still kick myself for not buying lilly when i saw how good a drug prozac was when it first came out in the '80s.

Thanks. Oh, well. Just a thought. Guess it's Anheuser Busch again then.

[GRG55]

i'm not sure if you're serious, ann. [actually, i doubt very much you're serious, but what the hay.]

Alprazolam Intensol- never heard of the intensol. alprazolam is useful for panics, especially, but tends to cause dependency.
Alzapam- huh? do you mean alprazolam?
Ativan- generically, lorazepam. useful anxiolytic.
BuSpar- pretty much worthless, in my opinion, except as an add-on for obsessive compulsive disorder.
Centrax- don't know it.
Equanil- old drug. don't write it.
Inderal- useful for tremor and as needed for performance anxiety.
Inderide- don't know it
Ipran- ditto
Klonopin- useful anxiolytic, sometimes too sedating. useful for panic.
Lexapro- ssri- used for depression, can be used for ocd, useful for anxiety, especially the ruminative variety. this is the type of med i'd use for a worried doomer.
Libritabs- don't use
Librium- use it only for alcohol detox.
Lipoxide-huh?
Lorazepam- generic ativan, see above
Lorazepam Intensol- never heard of "intensol"
Luvox- like lexapro but usually too sedating
Meprospan- old drug, may be liver toxic iirc
Miltown- same
Neuramate- huh?
Novo-Alprazol- huh?
Romazicon- huh?
Paxil- ssri like lexapro. can cause weight gain and be somewhat sedating. can cause terrible withdrawal problems when you stop it. for those reasons i don't prescribe it much.
Paxipam- huh?
Serax- anxiolytic like ativan
T-Quil-huh?
Tranxene- anxiolytic like ativan
Valium- anxiolytic like ativan
Valrelease- huh?
Versed- this is an antihistamine used for anxiety. sometimes useful in special instances when you want to avoid the abusable and dependency causing benzodiazepines like ativan, et al, or for some reason you want the anti-histaminic effect too.
Xanax- brand name for alprazolam

you forgot to list
zoloft [generic is sertraline] another ssri
and how could you forget PROZAC - the first ssri on the market here. very useful for depression, anxiety and ocd, but i've had problems with the generic. the generic doesn't seem to work for about 10% of brand-name prozac responders.
you also forgot effexor and serzone and cymbalta and remeron - other antidepressants with anti-anxiety effects.

conclusion- brand name prozac or generic sertraline for a worried doomer. [watch out for sexual side effects- lower libido and difficulty reaching orgasm]:D

Awright. Understand that this is a macro-econ site (OK, ok FRED, with the occassional market timing call), but these two posts (the Q & the A)get my vote for nomination into the iTulip Hall of Fame...

[Jay]

Nice list. Versed is a benzo like Ativan but with a shorter half-life. Works at the GABA receptor, not an anti-histamine. Back to the regular program...

[jk]

Nice list. Versed is a benzo like Ativan but with a shorter half-life. Works at the GABA receptor, not an anti-histamine. Back to the regular program...
sorry, mixed it up with atarax, which also goes by the name vistaril. i've never written versed and rarely write atarax.

[Andreuccio]

sorry, mixed it up with atarax, which also goes by the name vistaril. i've never written versed and rarely write atarax.

Note to self: Don't go to JK for medical advice if the symptoms are anxiety and allergies.

[Jim Nickerson]

Awright. Understand that this is a macro-econ site (OK, ok FRED, with the occassional market timing call), but these two posts (the Q & the A)get my vote for nomination into the iTulip Hall of Fame...

Whether yours is an unconscious misspelling or a typo, "occasion" is the single word that I have most misspelled over my lifetime. Finally, I figured out that the "cc" and "s" vs. "c" and "ss" are the opposite of "necessary" a word that I have always, I think, spelled correctly. I don't think I ever doubled the "c" and the "s." But to each his own when it comes to misspelling.:)

[metalman]

Awright. Understand that this is a macro-econ site (OK, ok FRED, with the occassional market timing call), but these two posts (the Q & the A)get my vote for nomination into the iTulip Hall of Fame...

those timing calls are so damn rare they are macro!

i'm still waiting for ej to tell me why this recession isn't going to kill my pm position.

[santafe2]

i'm still waiting for ej to tell me why this recession isn't going to kill my pm position.

If you don't mind, I'll take a stab at this one. Recessions are hard on industrial metals, even silver. They tend to create fear which is good for gold. If it turns into a deflationary depression, gold is screwed along with every other investment so that's not a scenario worth hanging our investor hats on. If that comes, trade your gold for food, bullets and thick walls.

Gold loves fear, inflation and monetary weakness. I suspect we've got a bit of those in our future.

[metalman]

If you don't mind, I'll take a stab at this one. Recessions are hard on industrial metals, even silver. They tend to create fear which is good for gold. If it turns into a deflationary depression, gold is screwed along with every other investment so that's not a scenario worth hanging our investor hats on. If that comes, trade your gold for food, bullets and thick walls.

Gold loves fear, inflation and monetary weakness. I suspect we've got a bit of those in our future.

thanks. i do buy the idea of competitive devaluations of reserve currencies. what i'd like from ej is what happens to gold/silver as the fed does its thing to prevent a deflationary spiral from happening. or is that what we're seeing now? fred did post this.

http://www.itulip.com/images/inflationscenarios.gif

is step 2 to step 3 the next step? and doesn't it make more sense to say "inflation rises by 20%" from 2 to 3?

[rogermexico]

i'm not sure if you're serious, ann. [actually, i doubt very much you're serious, but what the hay.]


Versed- this is an antihistamine used for anxiety. sometimes useful in special instances when you want to avoid the abusable and dependency causing benzodiazepines like ativan, et al, or for some reason you want the anti-histaminic effect too.
:D


FYI: Versed is midazolam, a short acting water-soluble benzodiazepine. It is not an antihistamine and can only be given intravenously. I thought you might be a physician until this part of the post. It would probably be be subject to dependency if used repeatedly as short half-life usually correlates with dependency.

[jk]

FYI: Versed is midazolam, a short acting water-soluble benzodiazepine. It is not an antihistamine and can only be given intravenously. I thought you might be a physician until this part of the post. It would probably be be subject to dependency if used repeatedly as short half-life usually correlates with dependency.

see posts #17 and #18

[WDCRob]

Not sure if this is on- or off-topic, but Versed is the best. drug. ever.

I had to have a couple chest tubes inserted once upon a time and with the Versed I felt everything, but the pain didn't matter at all. Sort of an instant Yogini experience.