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Charles Mackay
08-10-06, 11:45 AM
Haliburton, General Dynamics etc... such an index could conceivably forecast when conflicts are going to take place or widen by an index of this kind. Gold is supposed to do that but the war machine index may be even a better early warning indicatior. Anyone know if there is one?

Finster
08-10-06, 12:29 PM
Haliburton, General Dynamics etc... such an index could conceivably forecast when conflicts are going to take place or widen by an index of this kind. Gold is supposed to do that but the war machine index may be even a better early warning indicatior. Anyone know if there is one?

Dow Jones has indexes for just about every conceivable geographic and industry sector at http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/. Under "Benchmark Indexes", click "TMI - U.S./World Indexes". From there you can select "Index Data".

On the "Sector/Group" menu, select:

Industrials [2000]
.Industrial Goods & Services [2700]
..Aerospace & Defense [2710]
...Defense [2717]

Bingo!

For your purposes, I'd download that index into a spreadsheet, do the same with the corresponding broad market index, and divide the former by the latter. This will normalize the index for movements in the overall market. Then chart the log of the result.

Charles Mackay
08-10-06, 05:52 PM
Oh, of course, duh! The word "defense" must have slipped my mind since we seem to be on the "offense" these days... Thanks Finn.;)

EJ
08-10-06, 06:31 PM
Oh, of course, duh! The word "defense" must have slipped my mind since we seem to be on the "offense" these days... Thanks Finn.;)

When I was a kid, maybe 12 years old, during the Vietnam War, my Dad told he knew the US was in trouble when the The United States Department of War was renamed The Department of Defense (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Department_of_War), August 10, 1949.

Not until many years later did I appreciate what he meant. He passed away in the early 1990s, and my mother nine months later.

My parents loved the USA, but forbid me to stand to "Pledge allegiance to the flag" in elementary school during the Vietnam War. I had to sit there while all the other kids stared at me. I later learned to appreciate both their principle and their patriotism.

Charles Mackay
08-10-06, 06:46 PM
My parents loved the USA, but forbid me to stand to "Pledge allegiance to the flag" in elementary school during the Vietnam War. I had to sit there while all the other kids stared at me. I later learned to appreciate both their principle and their patriotism.

Remarkable. Your parents gave you something of lasting value. I was in college at the time of the Vietnam War and was the first generation to experience the draft lottery. I was fortunate and drew number 328 which meant I probably wasn't going to be drafted. My Dad called from a lecture he was giving in Chicago and congratulated me ecstatically and said he was sweating it out in front of the TV. It was like a sick game show the way they drew the draft numbers. Later I found out he was secretly planning a safe domicile for me in Toronto for the duration of the war.

Finster
08-10-06, 08:23 PM
When I was a kid, maybe 12 years old, during the Vietnam War, my Dad told he knew the US was in trouble when the The United States Department of War was renamed The Department of Defense (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Department_of_War), August 10, 1949.

We now have compounded that circumstance with the new Department of Homeland Security, which is charged with defending the homeland. Really begs the question of what the heck the "Department of Defense" is supposed to be defending!

Spartacus
08-27-06, 07:52 AM
There were several newsletter writers who set up newsletters, or added portfolios to existing letters, to cater to people wanting to profit from anti-terrorist activity.

I thought Mark Rostenko had one such can't find any articles about his letter or that porfolio.

Mark Hulbert did several articles on this subject(letters & portfolios) but his articles seem to have been lost in the Marketwatch shuffle.

Richard Maybury's letter of course is the mainstay of a portfolio driven by global political analysis.

Do you pronounce Mackay as muck-eye (maybey m'k-high is a better approximation of what I mean) or mack-eh?


Haliburton, General Dynamics etc... such an index could conceivably forecast when conflicts are going to take place or widen by an index of this kind. Gold is supposed to do that but the war machine index may be even a better early warning indicatior. Anyone know if there is one?