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icm63
01-01-08, 11:00 PM
http://www.thegreatbustahead.com/

It seams the demographic of 45 to 55 USA americans are the dominate spenders, so says Dan Arnold. And with this group spending there will be a massive depression post 2012...

What say yee..

Check out radio interview from website ( 1/2 way down on page)

Rajiv
01-01-08, 11:10 PM
Embedding the interview

http://www.thegreatbustahead.com/interview2.mp3

EJ
01-02-08, 10:29 AM
http://www.thegreatbustahead.com/

It seams the demographic of 45 to 55 USA americans are the dominate spenders, so says Dan Arnold. And with this group spending there will be a massive depression post 2012...

What say yee..

Check out radio interview from website ( 1/2 way down on page)

Similar background to my own, but has come to very different conclusions, or, rather, conclusions similar to those I came to in 1999.

The difference may be that he need to retrace a few steps I took to come to where I have arrived. He likely does not understand the role of the FIRE Economy in the US, or the impact of tight institutional integration among global central banks. The institutions of government necessarily express the interests of the current holders of wealth and power. The system will come under duress between 2008 - 2010 due to the ongoing crash of the FIRE Economy in the US. He appears unaware of the existence of the FIRE Economy and is focused on consumer spending. If he understood that 0.1% of payments within the "economy" are related to consumer spending, he might change his mind. Since he is focused on the Production/Consumption Economy he conclude that the economy will fail for lack of consumers. I believe the system will undergo massive stress, and change and adapt, but not fail. The old winners have to first give up some policy control to the new winners so that the new system can form.

Will be interested to debate him. Will try to contact him. In the mean time, Dan Arnold might want to read Are You a Doomer? (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1476)

icm63
01-02-08, 12:58 PM
Great news, please contact Dan Arnold. His book is a best seller at amazon.

The statistics of this demographic are interesting, I think this subject requires further itulp investigation. Please do...

Also he made a correct call about the market rally around of 2002/03. Not bad when everything was so dim.