View Full Version : Da Bear Rant December Edition

da bear
12-08-07, 04:28 PM
Da Bear Rant!
Da Cember Edition

"When I told my friends I was going to be a comedian, they laughed at me." --Carrot Top.

There was a broad based rally today at the corner of broad and wall as the powers that be cornered the shorts and stonewalled market justice. In other words, just your typical boo-ya bull crap. But it wasn't all bad for the contrarian cynical investors out there among us. Gold did ok. On Thursday the yellow metal to beat all other yellow metals (is there another yellow metal? if there is it would look odd), finishing the day near $800 an ounce mark. so apparently the One 800 (dollar) Gold Bull is still hanging tough.
Stocks had a huge up day, but even the dollar was up. Leave No Market Left Behind Day just left behind us.

At the beginning of the week, i did a poll (many are called, few do polls, most people usually hang up) about where gold would be by the end of the week.

here are the results:
What will gold do this week?
Go up.
32% [ 8 ]
Go down.
32% [ 8 ]
Stay the same.
36% [ 9 ]

one more person said that gold would go up this week, but the vote was just about split. dare i say that this board is smart, savvy and understands markets well. i bet that if i did a poll of your typical wal-street traitors, similar results would no doubt show up...

as i have mentioned before gold had a great run-up a few months ago after it broke out of the critical $666 an ounce price range, which i had commented on, and promptly went up nearly 200 dollars--nearly in a straight line. then gold hit $846 an ounce which was in spitting distance of its 1980 all-time nominal high. then gold corrected (see my Gold Topping thread by searching through the archives) to $782 an ounce, went back to $820 or so, sold off some more again, and as it stands is at $801.30.

looking at a short term chart, gold has come a long way fast. looking at a five year chart, gold has made a nice five wave bull market advance. so a short term correction here which would put pressure on the weak hands and doubt-a-bulls would be a nice way to set the stage for the next stage of this secular gold bull.

on a long term chart it looks as if gold possibly made a double top meeting its 1980 nominal high and apparently backing off. so its 27 years later. which is a long time. but in a great bear market after the stock market crash of '29, it took 25 years to recover its old highs. so this could be par for the course. of course, stocks didnt go in a straight line after that but it damn well went up for lots of time after that.

Bobby Prechter has said that the stock bear market of the thirties and beyond did not really end until 1949, that the upward advance off the 1932 lows was still in the bear market channel i guess, and only went beyond that after 1949. well that was 20 years after the high. so you could say that 20 or so years later was when a new gold bull was being born.

however, this gold bull looks back asswards. the first decline in twenty-nine was short and fast and horrible, then it based for a long period of time. this time in gold perhaps the long way winding down will now be the first part of the bear with the run since 2002 being a simultaneous secular gold bull and also a way to put the finishing touches on the old gold bear. so, after this top we could see a short and fast and horrible correction that would be a sharp bear and set up for the real big mega bull leg for gold.

in other words. the sharp A wave down in stocks was '29 then the '30 B wave upwards correction (suckers rally) then the long C wave down that didnt end until 1949.

... and for gold the long wave down in the bear market was the A wave from 1980 to 2002, the B wave is currently ongoing and near and end, and the sharp C wave down is coming up...

so am i saying that gold is both in a secular bull market (wave 1 of the new bull with wave 2 coming up) and wave B of the old bear market (with wave C coming up)? yes. does that wave count exist as of now? i doubt it. but it will when all is said and done! Very Happy

downside targets are still a maximum of $450, a likely target of $550 which was last years low and the spot of my great buy gold thread, or the $666 level which has been a critical price level for gold over the past year or so...

so we are due for a cyclical downturn that will be a wave 2 if you are counting the new secular bull or a wave C that would put the finishing touches on the old bear. it depends on if you are glass half full person, or a glass half empty person. but either way your glass is made of gold and you are drinking the kool-aid and the kool-aid is good! Wink

so the next correction would be gold's 1987 event, a quick bear that would separate the first stage (1982 to 1987 for old stock bull, 2002 to 2007 for gold) from the second stage (1987/1988 to 2000 for old stock bull, 2007/2008 to 2020 for new bull market). so that means we have a long way to run. 2020 means 13 years more to go (or more).

On Dollars: The $hit Has Not Yet Hit The Fan

the dollar currently stands at 76.37 cents on the dollar. it appears it made a temporary low...

and the FRN is still in my top three a$$et$ to own. just as long as you make sure that all three are stored under your mattress. Hint: water bed mattress gives you more liquidity for the buck, and oh oh oh does Mario Bartiromo love liquidity... and water beds... and bangs for the buck! Very Happy

... and i shall make making a Mattress Report for 2008 a high priority, a very important New Year's Resolution, followed closely by the words "Maria Bartiromo" on my to-do list. :D

Stocks: It's what Wal-Street Traitors Sell and Never Buy.
stocks have rallied big time over the past few days as bin Bernanke plans to lower rates (Always Low Rates. Always!)

stocks surge today as the Ministry of Free Market Mega-Bailouts looks to Leave No Bank Left Behind and, uh, bail out banks.

Dubya, neocons, neocrats, bin Bernanke and banksters ruthlessly attack, carpet bomb, and completely obliterate Saverstan-- a new member of the Axis of Evil!

Axis of Evel Knievel Update: Evel Knievel has died...

Da Bear Dictionary Book of Words word of the day...

Woebegon Market: where all the averages are above average, and where all stocks float on a lake of liquidity...

the PPT is at work. they may even have knocked down gold. PPT job: Always low gold prices. Always!

but gold stocks here arent bargains. Newmont Mining has a 53 P/E ratio and is off its highs for the year.

chart: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=nem&sid=0&o_symb=nem&x=0&y=0

Goldcorp (GG) has a 119 P/E ratio and is also off its highs...

chart: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=gg&sid=0&o_symb=gg&freq=1&time=8&x=0&y=0

and here is a link to an observation of the HUI index, and its possible bear market implications:


... it says that HUI has underperformed gold and to basically watch out.

bank stocks up some but still down some bit more:

JP Morgan is at $46, its high was $53.
Bear Stearns is at $98, its high was over $170 early this year.
Merrill Lynch is at $61, its high was $98, also back in January.
Countrywide Financial is at $12, its january high was $45 bucks a share.

homebuilders still beat up good. Toll Bros. is at $23.42, its high this year was $35. however, this stock peaked two years ago and is probably headed lower. it also issued its first loss ever.

The Race for Something or Other in 2008

Obama. he is african/american. he doesnt know if he is african or american so he is a slashie, an African/American. plus he was raised in hawaii by his grandparents. So in next year's presidential race the woefully inexperienced candidate currently known as Obama will try to appeal to everyone, everyone and every faction will be a special-interest group. he will try to ride both sides of the see saw at the same time...

Leave NObama Left Behind!

Autumn, the season we fall for again and again is almost over. In other words, leave no leaves left behind.

i put out an autumn rant. some of you may have clicked on it. some of you may have even read it.

Obama slogans: Hillary is a bitch, vote for Me.

hillary slogans: Leave No Ho Left Behind.

old: New Deal, New Frontier,

new, for Hillary! : New C*ntry, or how about "It takes a C*NTRY to raise a child"

Larry Craig (Always low pants. Always!), citing embarrassment over the name of his home state, resigns, and immediately is appointed by the Bush-Dick tag-team to become Ambassador to Bangkok.

Craig campaign slogan: If you always wanted a congressman in your back pocket vote for me!

from the ministry of irony department: Craig stabbed in back.

he said bubba was a dirty boy. there has to be a Leave No [fill in the blank] left Behind joke here somewhere...

huckabee is gaining...

only a southern baptist can be trusted to be president over the end of the world. i alluded to him earlier saying that he would be a dark horse candidate and that he used to live in a double wide trailer--while he was governor of Arkansas. which differs, from, uh, say Bill Clinton who used to bag floozies that lived in double wides while he was governor of Arkansas.

plus, like Bubba Huckabee (yes that is his real last name) is from Hope Arkansas. "The Dope From Hope!" you can use that slogan or "The Great White Redneck Hope From Hope!"

Hillbama tag team. Leave No Quota Left Behind.

obama: Up with highs! Down with lows!

obama going after the irish vote goes by the name Barrack O'Bama.
or the crimson tide/ bear bryant fans vote: barrack ala-bama.

Obama going after the the mexican vote: El Barracko La Bama. :D

the terror cells hiding in northern virginia vote: did i mention my middle name is Hussein, my first name sounds like Iraq, and my last name is similar to Osama, plus i am Muslim???

In the 2008 Race for Obama it will be Leave No Race Left Behind!

john edwards, former US Senator and current global gay icon, gets the short end of the stick in the Democratic three way.

he also loses to obama in the iowa straw poll. apparently obamas straw poll longer than johnyboy straw poll. Mr. Elizabeth Edwards cries reverse racism, sues, collects billions...

Rudie Julie Annie and soon-to-be announced running mate Nina Levin (pronounced nie-na-leven) vow to, when selected, uh, i mean elected, open a brand new Department of Women's Clothing...

link to picks of Mr(s). 9/11 in a dress:


on gold: gold not running for president.

great ron paul quotes:

Capitalism should not be condemned, since we haven't had capitalism.

A system of capitalism presumes sound money, not fiat money manipulated by a central bank. Capitalism cherishes voluntary contracts and interest rates that are determined by savings, not credit creation by a central bank.

I am absolutely opposed to a national ID card. This is a total contradiction of what a free society is all about. The purpose of government is to protect the secrecy and the privacy of all individuals, not the secrecy of government. We don't need a national ID card.

link: http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/r/ron_paul.html

silver: Gold's vice president. the dan quayle of metals. "I knew gold, gold was a friend of mine, and you sir are no gold."

zimbabwe update of the day. it sucks. bad. but good news is that the Pistons are moving to Zimbabwe because Detroit sucks worse.

christmas gold run coming up. dont miss it.

after chrismas is new year (Leave No Old year Left behind). 2008 is an election year.

stocks are waiting for the fed to bail it out. the ratio of stocks to gold is slouching towards parity...

credit freeze is still on. global warming does it exist?

financial global cooling does..

if global warming exists does it mean we can change it. yeah, when hell freezes over pigs fly south for the winter.

Obamerica! Coming to a former country called America near you!

jobs to get: door to door doorsalesman :cool:

The best thing about President Dubya? the only thing that beats an orwellian police state, is a dyslexic at the helm of an orwellian police state...

immigration; is it a big issue? Mexploitation?

taser quote you may hear one day: "Don't tase me ho!"

dyslexic orwellian police state. "Jelly doughnut eats overpaid overweight dude holding a taser."

(KKD reference bonus points!)

survellaince state of the day: santa is CIA. santa is an anagram for SATAN. from what they never taught you...

Santa puts date rape drugs in toys. or China. I forget which.

housing top in retrospect. eToys gets into the housing business. pet rocks used in pouring of foundations, also as a repacement for granite countertops.

homeless men go to home depot, ring up huge bills, to increase curb appeal on the streets they live on...

... california pensions then invest all their money buying up spruced up street corners in Skid row downtown LA.

New Da Bear Market Quotes:

it takes money to lose money.

you make money when you don't buy.

Get poor slow. the new Get Rich Quick.

How to not buy a house with NO MONEY DOWN!

CAREERS OF THE FUTURE: venture capital fund for pyramid schemes.

you owe 30,000 as share of national debt. but that took over 200 years to accumulate. you just spent 30,000 to fix up a condo in Watts. you just bought the front seat of a souped-up BMW. you just bought 30,000 items at the dollar store. you just bought a 5% down payment on a 600,000 house to fit all your dollar store items in. you just leased out your McMansion with 30,000 dollar gold plated toilets to 30,000 illegal immigrants just to pay the property taxes. you are the american people and you are even more hopeless than the american government.

Da Bart Report!

"Eat my shorts!" --bart.

The degenerated but non regurgitated WTF report
... aka da Bart o' Charts report

Short term, I'm still looking at a temporary top in gold & silver around mid December, although it may already be in... and will likely sell my remaining current longs on any significant blow off... or around $745-765. If I miss a huge up move, so be it... there's lots and lots of up & down moves to come before the hard asset cycle peaks many years from now... and in lots of other areas besides gold & silver too... and da bear's $666 is a far from impossible target, same with Sinclair's $1050 plus.
The next buy point looks to be around the next Armstrong cycle turn date in March 2008.

There's a good chance in my opinion that if PMs break more than a little, agricultural commodities and probably energy will break too... we do have a globalized world and liquidity problems will affect everything.
There ain't so such thing as an uncoupled globalized world (TANSTAAUGW).

As always too, I'll let the market tell me where it's going... and keep my core PMs regardless.

My charts continue to show mixed signals on the US stock markets but given their recent performance (and present kindly company), I'm rather bearish (*duh*) on the intermediate term... and also note a Bradley turn date of 12/22 coming up.

In the Hall of Fame and Shame - aka BartChart-ville, an article is in progress on the Hard vs. Paper Asset cycle chart ( the "one chart to rule them all" ) on my Key Stats page... and many other articles are close to completion too, like on SecLend and Dow performance.

links to bartsite: http://www.nowandfutures.com/

M3 stats from nowandfutures: http://www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html

and gold graphs: http://www.nowandfutures.com/miners.html

Da Bart Favorite Link of the Month: http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs?

El Bartos
(da bart en espanol)

Leave No Charts Left Behind!

__________________________________________________ ________

da bear

Gold: The precious metal formerly known as money.

P.S. Oh yeah, about the hilarity of being in a dyslexic orwellian police state i give you "Dubya Say What???"

"If this were a dictatorship, it'd be a heck of a lot easier, just so long as I'm the dictator." —President-elect George W. Bush, at a photo-op with congressional leaders during his first trip to Capitol Hill, Washington, D.C., Dec. 19, 2000

"But all in all, it's been a fabulous year for Laura and me." —summing up his first year in office, three months after the 9/11 attacks, Washington, D.C., Dec. 20, 2001

"Our enemies are innovative and resourceful, and so are we. They never stop thinking about new ways to harm our country and our people, and neither do we." —Washington, D.C., Aug. 5, 2004 :eek:

"I just want you to know that, when we talk about war, we're really talking about peace." —Washington, D.C. June 18, 2002 :confused:

"Bush goes to Hel. That's what a lot of people want." --George W. Bush, on his visit to the Hel Peninsula, Gdansk, Poland, Jun. 8, 2007

"There's a lot of blowhards in the political process, you know, a lot of hot-air artists, people who have got something fancy to say." --George W. Bush, Washington, D.C., May 17, 2007

"I'm honored to be here with the eternal general of the United States, mi amigo Alberto Gonzales." --George W. Bush, Washington, D.C., May 4, 2007 (Watch video clip)

"Wisdom and strength, and my family, is what I'd like for you to pray for." --George W. Bush, Washington, D.C., May 2, 2007

"The best way to defeat the totalitarian of hate is with an ideology of hope -- an ideology of hate -- excuse me --with an ideology of hope." --George W. Bush, Fort Benning, Ga., Jan. 11, 2007

"We're kicking ass." --George W. Bush, on the security situation in Iraq, to Australian Deputy Prime Minister Mark Vaile, Sydney, Australia, Sept. 5, 2007:):):)

12-11-07, 12:45 AM
Da Bear -

I have not read this through with care yet, but there are definitely some little "gems" tucked away in here. Will review further on a second read. Keep the fires burning Bear! And let us remember - Anarchic, caustic, corrosive humor is the most effective critique that can be leveled against those one wishes to awaken. It can pierce right through the thickest hide! :D

da bear
12-13-07, 12:25 AM
Da Bear -

I have not read this through with care yet, but there are definitely some little "gems" tucked away in here. Will review further on a second read. Keep the fires burning Bear! And let us remember - Anarchic, caustic, corrosive humor is the most effective critique that can be leveled against those one wishes to awaken. It can pierce right through the thickest hide! :D

glad you liked it.

i will probably put out a Report soon... look for it. and i will post that in on this website...

da bear