Shinplasters, Bonars, Dollars, and Dong [Archive]

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FRED

12-05-07, 08:36 AM

http://www.itulip.com/images/shin1.jpgShinplasters, Bonars, Dollars, and Dong

By Mark Sengel

(Editor's Note: Mark writes for iTulip from Thailand.)

When I was growing up my father gave us Confederate money to play with. I often asked how much it was worth. At age eight, I couldn't believe these intricately engraved bills that pictured high ranking leaders with denominations of four zeros were worth little more that their value as paper.

In 1990 my wife and I took the short flight from Bangkok to Ho Chi Min City. It was during the first years Vietnam allowed Americans in after the war. You couldn't book a round trip. You had to buy your return ticket with dollars after arriving in Vietnam. A government official confiscated our passports and followed us everywhere. Our tour guides were also the waiters at the restaurant, the musicians at the dinner show, and the clerks in the souvenir shop. U.S. credit cards weren't accepted, but our dollars caught every vendor's attention. They were worth at least twice the posted exchange rate. Not anymore.

At the market near the Rex Hotel we paid 10,000 dong (one U.S. dollar) for a large basket. It is tightly woven and still solid twenty years later. The man behind the hotel desk laughed at me. Refusing to believe the real price was ten cents, I'd overpaid by 1,000 percent. I left Vietnam having no idea what a dong or a dollar was worth. The 10,000 dong note was followed by the 50,000 note that same year, the 100,000 in '94, and the 500,000 in 2003.

When it takes sixty dollars to fill a gas tank, the dollar bill is in danger of becoming a paper dime. If a five dollar bill doesn't buy a beer in Europe, it's on the way to becoming a fifty-cent piece.

http://www.itulip.com/images/shin4.jpg"Shinplaster" is an American word. It has two meanings: a bill of dubious value, and paper money in denominations less than a dollar. Canada circulated 25-cent bills well into the 1900's. The United States issued many pieces of fractional currency. For several years the U.S. had a 5-cent bill; one is pictured at the top of this article. Spencer Clark, an employee at the Treasury Department, put his own face on the bill prompting congress to forbid portraits of living people on U.S. currency.

Shinplasters, red dogs, and shingles were derogatory terms for currencies issued by U.S. banks in the 1830's. In 1836 Andrew Jackson vetoed the re-charter of the "Second Bank of the United States" effectively putting an end an early version of the Federal Reserve. State banks and private entities filled the void, issuing a hodge-podge of currencies. The period from 1837 until the Civil War is known as "The Free Banking Period." There was no single, official U.S. currency. Land was paid for with different currencies of dubious value. Prices soared. Jackson finally passed "Specie Circular," mandating federal land be purchased with currencies backed by silver or gold.

A land bubble burst on May 10, 1837 in New York City, when every bank stopped payment in specie. The country plunged into depression.

According to the Oxford English Dictionary, "shinplaster" is derived from the quality of the paper, which was so cheap it could be used to make paper-mache layers to go under socks and warm the shins.

iTulip's derogatory term for the the U.S. dollar "bonar (http://www.itulip.com/glossary.htm#Bonar)" follows a long tradition of mocking a weakening currency. The political cartoons below lampoon American money in the "Free Banking Period." High resolutions downloads are available at the Library of Congress (http://www.loc.gov/rr/print/catalog.html).

http://www.itulip.com/images/shin2.jpg

http://www.itulip.com/images/shin5.jpg

http://www.itulip.com/images/milbonarnote.jpg

See also:
Report from Thailand: Is the Housing Bubble Global? - Mark Sengel (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=374)

iTulip Select (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1032): The Investment Thesis for the Next Cycle™
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necron99

12-05-07, 02:02 PM

A couple of iTuliper's have in another thread complimented me on my short fiction story, "Already a Winner (http://www.processedworld.com/Issues/issue2001/pw2001_95-99_Already_a_Winner.pdf)" (warning: PDF file), set in 2017, where inflation has raised the price of everything by about 300% from the time I wrote it, but wages are still stagnant. Hmmmm, I actually wrote that piece in 1996, looks like I may have underestimated the situation.

I'll also point out the sci-fi novel, "Snow Crash," by Neal Stephenson, which is set in the US roughly thirty years from now. Most people demand something called "Kongbucks" for currency, apparently because the Hong Kong Chinese own half the real estate in America at that time. But a government job pays you only in dollars... trillions and trillions of dollars. You need a wheelbarrow, etc. etc. There is an amusing chapter which is written as a job manual for a government office, which reminds workers that, even though buying toilet paper and paper towels with US Dollars requires putting up more paper in the form of currency -- than the paper you receive in your product -- US Dollars should not be used for these purposes, because technically that is defacing U.S. property and punishable by a fine.

qwerty

12-05-07, 03:58 PM

"If a five dollar bill doesn't buy a beer in Europe, it's on the way to becoming a fifty-cent piece."

But I put it to you, that you can buy a beer in the US for $5! (Not wishing to paraphrase Bernanke).

I have read two comments elsewhere on what the dollar buys.

In one, it was said that international consumer brands were trimming their margins in the US to keep market share - thus you can buy a bottle of German beer more cheaply in the US than you can in Germany.
(And I remember bringing a good bottle of single malt from the UK to California as a gift in 1978 and finding it on sale in the local Liquor Barn for about 30% less than what I paid for it in the UK. I just checked historical rates and at that time the pound = $1.85)

The other comment was that if GBP 10 = USD 20, and you can buy a lot more with $20 in New York than you can in London with 10 Pounds (Which indeed you can - very much so) then the dollar is undervalued.

However exhorbitant London is, you can still buy decent pint in the hinterland for 2.50 - 3.00 pounds and you have to factor in the following difference between a pint of Bud in the US:-

1. The UK beer is much better, of course. (I'd rather drink a cup of tea than a pint of bud)

2. The UK (Imperial Pint) is 20% larger than the US Pint.

3. About 40% of the price you pay for a pint in the UK goes to the Government in taxes, part of it no doubt funding the development of the National Health Service's world-leading, and free, liver transplant programme.

Now that's a deal for five or six bonars!

qwerty

12-05-07, 04:08 PM

http://www.stuckinlondon.com/londonprices.php

Pint of Ale (down the pub) £2.60 $5.27

Spartacus

12-05-07, 06:24 PM

A herd of buffalo can only move as fast as the slowest buffalo and when the herd is hunted, it is the slowest and weakest ones at the back that are killed first. This natural selection is good for the herd as a whole, because the general speed and health of the whole group keeps improving by the regular killing of the weakest members.
In much the same way, the human brain can only operate as fast as the slowest brain cells. Now, as we know, excessive drinking of alcohol kills brain cells. But naturally, it attacks the slowest and weakest brain cells first. In this way, regular consumption of beer eliminates the weaker brain cells, making the brain a faster and more efficient machine. And that, Norm, is why you always feel smarter after a few beers.

"If a five dollar bill doesn't buy a beer in Europe, it's on the way to becoming a fifty-cent piece."

But I put it to you, that you can buy a beer in the US for $5! (Not wishing to paraphrase Bernanke).

I have read two comments elsewhere on what the dollar buys.

In one, it was said that international consumer brands were trimming their margins in the US to keep market share - thus you can buy a bottle of German beer more cheaply in the US than you can in Germany.
(And I remember bringing a good bottle of single malt from the UK to California as a gift in 1978 and finding it on sale in the local Liquor Barn for about 30% less than what I paid for it in the UK. I just checked historical rates and at that time the pound = $1.85)

The other comment was that if GBP 10 = USD 20, and you can buy a lot more with $20 in New York than you can in London with 10 Pounds (Which indeed you can - very much so) then the dollar is undervalued.

However exhorbitant London is, you can still buy decent pint in the hinterland for 2.50 - 3.00 pounds and you have to factor in the following difference between a pint of Bud in the US:-

1. The UK beer is much better, of course. (I'd rather drink a cup of tea than a pint of bud)

2. The UK (Imperial Pint) is 20% larger than the US Pint.

3. About 40% of the price you pay for a pint in the UK goes to the Government in taxes, part of it no doubt funding the development of the National Health Service's world-leading, and free, liver transplant programme.

Now that's a deal for five or six bonars!

12-05-07, 06:49 PM

the dollar is indeed cheap compared to the european currencies in terms of purchasing power. the problem is the that there is a vast ocean of dollars which have been frozen in national accounts and, when liquified, will produce a flood. then the dollar will buy less in the u.s. as well as in europe.

whitetower67

12-05-07, 09:14 PM

About 40% of the price you pay for a pint in the UK goes to the Government in taxes, part of it no doubt funding the development of the National Health Service's world-leading, and free, liver transplant programme.

Alas, the waiting list means a 6-year delay.

Lukester

12-05-07, 10:38 PM

Qwerty -

The UK beer is much better, of course. (I'd rather drink a cup of tea than a pint of bud).

You would not be suggesting I hope, that our national pride, Budweiser "tinned lager", tastes like CAT'S PISS?? Please have some sensitivity for bruised American pride here.

And as for British coffe-shop tea, I can attest from having spent my college daze in the UK that it's nothing to write home about either! (dear Mum, yesterday morning I had breakfast at ... [lumpy egg & chip shop in Bayswater, W2] etc. )

qwerty

12-06-07, 09:46 AM

Qwerty -

You would not be suggesting I hope, that our national pride, Budweiser "tinned lager", tastes like CAT'S PISS?? Please have some sensitivity for bruised American pride here.

Budweiser doesn't have that amount of body! You mis-remember the British term of abuse for weak beer - "Gnat's Piss".

Qwerty -

And as for British coffe-shop tea, I can attest from having spent my college daze in the UK that it's nothing to write home about either! (dear Mum, yesterday morning I had breakfast at ... [lumpy egg & chip shop in Bayswater, W2] etc. )

Touché.

But I could never understand why we put up with those West End sandwich shops with watery cappucinos and yesterday's bread rolls. Who was it who corrected Napoleon and pointed out that England was in fact a nation RUN by shopkeepers?

Although the "greasy spoon" places which served bacon, eggs, sausages (not spam) had tea you could stand your spoon up in.

I think it's all changed now though, what with the Cool Britannia re-branding and EU immigrants who will not eat shoddy food.

Thinking more about the economics of beer: Wouldn't people here agree that the price increase in beer over the past 10 years has been modest in the US and the UK?

Lukester

12-06-07, 11:51 AM

Qwerty -

Caught up with an old friend living in London recently, and we were discussing how pricey it's become. She scoffed at the idea, and admonished me that if you really are "a bit enterprising" and hunt around in the East End, you can still discover where to get a "bowl of good soup for a fiver" !!??? :eek: :eek: :confused:

A bowl of soup for five quid? Jeezus H. I think if I stopped into a local divey food shop over here in "pricey Southern California" and spent ten B0nars for a bowl of soup I'd choke on my breadsticks and ask to speak to the proprietor. What is it, served in a gold plated bowl, with a silver spoon?

In spite of all that, I'd gadly become a Budwiser door to door salesman (if that would buy me the privilege) for the chance to move back there. I'm definitely swimming in the wrong goldfish bowl down here in So-Cal.

Unfortunately I have a suspicion the Brits would rather keep the Budweiser cans in the trunk of the family car, to be employed as "emergency radiator fluid top-up" instead.

jimmygu3

12-06-07, 01:00 PM

Unfortunately I have a suspicion the Brits would rather keep the Budweiser cans in the trunk of the family car, to be employed as "emergency radiator fluid top-up" instead.

Remembering my own post-college stint in London, I think you mean the "boot" of the motorcar. :)

Lukester

12-06-07, 01:28 PM

Jimmygu3 -

I am picturing a stranded British motorcar driver by the side of the motorway in an Opel Astra, his radiator steaming - wife and kids sitting in the car looking glum - while he stands before the steaming radiator looking dubiously at a can of "Budweiser, King of Beers" before pouring it into the radiator tap.

jimmygu3

12-06-07, 01:58 PM

Oddly enough, I went to a trendy pub on Kings Road back in the early '90s and all the locals were drinking a Czech beer called Budweiser, pronouncing it 'Bood-visor'. It's actually a really good beer. I just found this little tidbit about it:
The legal dispute between Anheuser-Busch and a tiny beer brewery in southern Bohemia in Czech Republic is also very interesting. The advertising budget of Anheuser-Busch alone is bigger than the total revenues of the tiny Czech Budweiser Company. Back in 1911, the brewers of the Czech Budweiser brand, the original Budweiser beer, according to Czechs dating back to 13th century, agreed to let the Americans use the name Budweiser beer in America but kept the rights to this name in Europe. The Czechs consider the seven centuries of Budweiser brewing tradition an important part of their national heritage and don't want the American Budweiser beer to put their good name to shame in Europe. That's the way they see it. Somebody must save European civilization from American mass production, and the lofty tasks fell upon the strong shoulders of burly Czech beer brewers. The trademark dispute battle rages on. The Czechs will not sell out to the Americans. No way.

necron99

12-06-07, 02:27 PM

A bowl of soup for five quid? Jeezus H. I think if I stopped into a local divey food shop over here in "pricey Southern California" and spent ten B0nars for a bowl of soup I'd choke on my breadsticks and ask to speak to the proprietor. What is it, served in a gold plated bowl, with a silver spoon?

Try the trendy restaurants in Northern California. I am temporarily working in San Francisco, and yesterday I dropped almost twenty dollars on a soup and sandwich. Full bowl of soup was over $8.00... Full portabello mushroom sandwich was over $9.00. (Most people are satisfied with the half-bowl and half-sandwich, special for $8.00, but I was extremely hungry. And I love portabello mushrooms.)

http://www.mnftiu.cc/mnftiu.cc/images/gywo.dollar.gif (http://www.mnftiu.cc/mnftiu.cc/war69.html)

Lukester

12-06-07, 03:31 PM

metalman

12-06-07, 03:37 PM

Try the trendy restaurants in Northern California. I am temporarily working in San Francisco, and yesterday I dropped almost twenty dollars on a soup and sandwich. Full bowl of soup was over $8.00... Full portabello mushroom sandwich was over $9.00. (Most people are satisfied with the half-bowl and half-sandwich, special for $8.00, but I was extremely hungry. And I love portabello mushrooms.)

http://www.mnftiu.cc/mnftiu.cc/images/gywo.dollar.gif (http://www.mnftiu.cc/mnftiu.cc/war69.html)

i don't know about you guys, but i can still buy 4 gallons of gas with a $1...

http://www.silverpeacedollar.com/images/1921_peace_dollar.jpg

now going for $14 each, paid $5 each for 1000 of 'em in 2001.

Lukester

12-06-07, 03:49 PM

I don't know Metalman ... It looks kind of tarnished and dinged around the edges to me. :confused:

metalman

12-06-07, 03:55 PM

I don't know Metalman ... It looks kind of tarnished and dinged around the edges to me. :confused:

you should see 'em. they're all beat to shit, worth nothing more than the metal they're made. sell 4 and fill up the tank. leaves 996 to go, same as when i bought 'em in 2001.

now that's a hedge.

Lukester

12-06-07, 04:12 PM

SILVER: THE LONG-TERM VIEW

http://www.gold-eagle.com/images/clear.gif
Roland Watson

http://www.gold-eagle.com/images/clear.gif
Back in the depression year of 1932 silver was suffering. It had hit a low price of 24 cents per troy ounce as the forces of deflation assaulted commodities across the board. Could things get any worse as no end seemed in sight to the widespread massacre of assets across America and the world?

As it turned out, this was the nadir year for silver as prices began an upturn that led to a zenith as yet unparalleled. Between 1932 and 1980 silver advanced from 24 cents to 50 dollars an ounce. That is a 200-fold increase over 48 years!

Let us compare that to other areas of investment over the same time period. The S&P500 hit a low of 4.40 in 1932 as well and advanced to a high of 114 the day silver peaked in 1980. That is a 26-fold increase or about one eighth what silver achieved. The Dow Jones 30 Index hit rock bottom at 43 in 1932 and advanced to 924 in January 1980 to give a 21-fold performance.

Meanwhile gold was at $20 an ounce in 1932. With a high of $875 in 1980 that gives a 44-fold increase, about one quarter of silver's stunning performance. I have to say this is a bit unfair since gold was fixed in price by government decree in 1932. If it had been allowed float freely in price, it would certainly have dropped to a single digit price and given silver a good challenge I believe.

But what about other commodities? Taking copper as a base metal example, it bottomed out at about 5 cents a pound in 1932 before participating in the 1980 commodity blow off at $1.30 for a 26-fold increase (copper is now $3.35 a pound).

Finally, cotton on the exchanges hit a monthly low of 6.27 cents per pound in June 1932 and advanced to 87 cents in 1980 for roughly a 14-fold advance (it is now priced at 51 cents).

Perhaps readers can enlighten me to other asset classes which may have beaten the performance silver put in between 1932 and 1980 but for now silver takes the award as the best performing asset in that cycle between one deflation low and one inflation high.

So why am I saying this now? Silver hit another major low back in 1993 when it reached $3.50. These two numbers are interesting. If we go to the standard CPI inflation calculator at http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl (http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl) and type in the years 1932 and 1993 for one dollar, you get the answer that one dollar in 1932 had $10.55 purchasing power in 1993.

Multiply our rock bottom silver price of 24 cents by 10.55 and you get a 1993 price of $2.56, which is not too far off our major low in 1993 and makes one wonder whether we had witnessed two similar events but in different cycles.

That cycle I am referring to is the Kondratiev cycle, which on average last about 54 years and cycles between deflationary and inflationary highs across history. The time between 1932 and 1993 is 61 years, which make me suspect we have witnessed the same deflationary event for silver but in different Kondratiev phases. Silver reached a post-war inflationary high in 1920 of $1.38.

Twelve years later it had dropped to our deflationary low. One Kondratiev cycle later silver hit another inflationary high in 1980. Thirteen years later another deflationary low was reached in 1993.

Now we may say history rhymes rather than repeats. The period of 1932 to 1980 had its own unique events to help lift silver to those highs such as World War II, the beginning of welfare deficit spending and the dropping of the gold standard.

This period we are now in will have its own inflation causing events that will see silver grow and grow in price until another 1980 style crisis greets the world. Those events will be the welfare deficit crisis brought on by the mass retirements of the Baby Boomers. It will also be exacerbated by the unfolding energy supply brought on by the expanding economies of the Far East as well as Peak Oil. Finally, continuing depletion of resources and lower ore grades will be the final straw for a world already struggling to cope with one monetary woe after another.

In 48 years silver gained 200 fold over its competing assets. In the next 48 years between 1993 and some time around 2040 we may see silver grow 200 fold again to spike at $700 an ounce ($3.50 multiplied by 200).

You may object on two points here. The first is that 2040 is rather a long way off. I say that doesn't matter. Unlike 1932 onwards until 1964 when silver was effectively fixed in price, in this period silver will respond more readily to inflation concerned markets. In other words, we won't need to wait for most of the price action to be unleashed near the end as in the 1970s. The price of silver will experience price surges in our lifetimes that will exceed 1979-1980 for extreme pricing.

Secondly, you may say that $700 silver sounds off the wall. Well, if you had gone up to someone in 1932 when you could get an ounce of silver for a quarter and said that it would hit $50 in their lifetime, they would probably laugh you out of court as well.

I would also point out that $700 value is not inflation adjusted just like $50 in 1980 was not worth $50 in 1932. Using our CPI calculator again, one dollar in 1932 was worth $6 in 1980 which gives an inflation adjusted figure of $8.33 for 1980 silver in 1932 prices. That's a lot of wealth preservation as well as wealth appreciation in the price of silver!

Are we on track at this point in time? Yes, we certainly are! We are in 2007, 14 years on from 1993 and the price of silver has increased by a factor of 4.3 ($3.50 to $15). Fourteen years on from 1932 brought us to 1946, which saw a high price of 90 cents or an increase by a factor of 3.75. Looking good so far!

So, the long-term future of silver is very rosy in my opinion. As the various inflationary forces we anticipate hit the shores of the Western world, the best performing asset between 1932 and 1980 will once prove its worth as millions flock to it in their droves.

qwerty

12-06-07, 04:43 PM

Having said what I did about Bud, I have to say that when I left Britain in the late 90's Bud was selling big in pubs.

It was young kids with limp palettes. The kind who wouldn't eat their greens as kids and would only eat Heinz spaghetti hoops.

And yes, Pilsner Urquell - best beer in the world, according to my German friend who is rabidly proud of German beer.

tree

12-06-07, 04:50 PM

From "Terence, This is Stupid Stuff" by A.E. Housman:

Say, for what were hop-yards meant,
Or why was Burton built on Trent?
Oh many a peer of England brews
Livelier liquor than the Muse,
And malt does more than Milton can
To justify God's ways to man.

12-06-07, 06:25 PM

Lukester

12-06-07, 06:54 PM

Agreed JK -

I also like to take those extravagant ultra-lowest and ultra-highest numbers and cut them in half, or even quarter them.

So it's not anything remotely like a 408% annualized return (20,000% return over 49 years), and we should dial it right down and say neither is it anything like a 204% annualized return. But we might surmise that if over that 49 year stretch this humble commodity was returning 25% - 35% - 50% annualized, it would still be astounding.

I personally take the lowest number and figure over a high inflation decade it's maybe good for a 25% annual return, without any exposure to equities, which I heartily dislike investing in anyway at the tail end of a 25 year bull market.

25% a year hedge against inflation, with no equity market risk, in a former currency metal? I think I'll take it, and be quite pleased with it!

12-06-07, 07:01 PM

Lukester

12-06-07, 07:15 PM

JK -

That's a question you really should not ask me, as it would be embarassing for me to divulge. You can read that any way you want (and you know I don't embarass easily). :D

rj1

12-06-07, 07:37 PM

Ah yes - I see Necron99 is at the top of his lugubrious, suicidally pessimistic sardonic form today! :D

Jimmygu3 - now I'm about to release a treasured secret I've been guarding jealously for years - THE BEST LAGER BEER IN THE WORLD - BAR NONE!

It also happens to be Czechoslovak lager beer - and it's called (drumroll please) PILSNER URQUELL - Go to a boutique liquor store that sells microbrews or imports and pick up a couple of bottles of that. This beer is the crowned EMPEROR of ALL beers!

Taste it, and dare to tell me I'm wrong!

I had one at a wedding this past summer (in Raleigh, North Carolina of all places). Didn't realize it was the greatest. It was allright, but I'm not a big alcohol drinker to start with.

My college history teacher, who spent a lot of time in West Germany and communist Poland, always seemed to start his history stories in Europe with him having a beer or sharing one or how great the one he had and then went off. We one time asked him what was the best beer he ever had. He thought a minute, and then said "Paderborner Edilpils."

12-06-07, 07:49 PM

JK -

That's a question you really should not ask me, as it would be embarassing for me to divulge. You can read that any way you want (and you know I don't embarass easily). :D
i don't understand how an investment allocation can be embarrassing at all. especially in a context like this: open debate and discussion combined with anonymity. you have been a frequent proponent of silver, and i wondered what level your enthusiasm reached in the real world of investment decisions.

jimmygu3

12-06-07, 09:53 PM

Jimmygu3 - now I'm about to release a treasured secret I've been guarding jealously for years - THE BEST LAGER BEER IN THE WORLD - BAR NONE!

It also happens to be Czechoslovak lager beer - and it's called (drumroll please) PILSNER URQUELL - Go to a boutique liquor store that sells microbrews or imports and pick up a couple of bottles of that. This beer is the crowned EMPEROR of ALL beers!

Taste it, and dare to tell me I'm wrong!

I actually have a couple Pilsner Urquells in my fridge right now. Good pilsner, but I slightly prefer Belgium's Stella Artois. And back to Britain, Guinness, Bass and Newcastle are all at the top of my list.

Lukester

12-06-07, 11:15 PM

Jimmygu3 -

I've been peering at your avatar pic for the past three or four months trying to make out what the heck it was - for the longest time I was sure it was Al Capone climbing into his "Capone Car" surrounded by goons.

Now this evening I stumbled on the exact image, straight out of a PDF document out of Ian Gordon's "Long Wave Analyst", which in turn extracted it from the Sunday Telegraph! We've got you square in our sights now Jimmygu3.

148

jimmygu3

12-07-07, 09:17 AM

*T*

12-07-07, 11:00 AM

I actually have a couple Pilsner Urquells in my fridge right now. Good pilsner, but I slightly prefer Belgium's Stella Artois. And back to Britain, Guinness, Bass and Newcastle are all at the top of my list.

*wince*
Round my way Stella is called 'wife beater' because of the nasty headache it gives you (seriously). I don't know what crap they put in it.
Pilsner Urquell is indeed the original pilsner I believe. It tastes better on draught in its native area than the bottled stuff I've tried somehow.

Funny how this turned into a beer thread.

bart

12-07-07, 06:02 PM

i don't think using the price that the hunt brothers trumped up gives an accurate picture. silver never would have made it to 50 without their machinations.

Does a similar thought apply to Nasdaq over 5000 in 2000?

In other words, isn't that the pattern of all manias, especially ones that are in extremely historically volatile items like silver? (or tulips? ;))

Butte Bill

12-07-07, 10:32 PM

To each his own. I worked at the King's Arms in Soho, London for a month back in the mid 70's. A favorite drink of the locals was named "Tristram Shandy": half Guiness and half bottled "lemonade". Awful as that sounds - and it was awful - it was still much better than South African mealy beer. Which is better than Budweiser. And given a choice between Bud and a Tristram Shandy, I'd have to choose the Bud. Damn Kenneth Arrow.