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FRED
11-25-07, 11:32 AM
http://www.itulip.com/images/crystalball.jpgThe Internet bubble (http://www.boston.com/business/markets/articles/2007/11/25/the_internet_bubble/)
Nov 25, 2007 (Scott Kirsner - Boston Globe)

It might pop again, but some say that may not be a bad thing

Eric Janszen, an entrepreneur and investor who runs the economics investing site iTulip.com, doesn't believe we're seeing another bubble like the dot-com one, but he foresees "a long and relatively deep recession" sparked by the crashing housing market.

"Advertising gets hammered in a recession," he says, as does consumer spending. And acquisitions of small Internet companies, a favored cash-out strategy for entrepreneurs, could be hurt, too.

"Nothing slows down the acquisition pace more than falling stock prices, and the falling perceived valuations of companies that might be acquired," Janszen says. "The acquirers think, 'Why not wait until they get cheaper?'" (Janszen's site, as it happens, is also supported by ads.)

AntiSpin: Speaking of predictions, let's do a post-mortem on Janszen's 2007 forecasts made in November 2006.
The dollar will be the headline issue all next year as the US goes into recession and the its trading partners react.
The Chinese government will not allow for more rapid appreciation but the euro may rise until the EU needs to prints euros to buy dollars, in which case gold ends 2007 over $800.
I do not envy the Fed next year. 2007 will be the year when all the policies of the last ten years or so finally produce undeniable stagflation.
The Dems will be overly conservative, and will not act until the economic pain becomes quite palpable. The pain will come relatively slowly, as declining housing bubbles are slow compared to collapsing stock market bubbles. I don't expect any action from Congress until Q3 2007 at the earliest.Crashing dollar? $800 gold? The Fed hitting a policy wall as inflation rises and a housing led economic contraction strike at the same time? Who could have known? More... (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=663)

Meanwhile, the mythical Dept. of Clueless Leadership has summoned so many private jets to this year's climate conference that there's not enough space to park them all. Greenhouse gases never stopped a jet but maybe $200 oil will.
A Lack of Apron Area Will Compel Delegations Attending the UN Climate Change Conference to Park their Planes Outside of Bali (http://www.balidiscovery.com/messages/message.asp?Id=4112)
Nov. 25, 2007 (Bali News)

Tempo Interaktif reports that Angkasa Pura - the management of Bali's Ngurah Rai International Airport are concerned that the large number of additional private charter flights expected in Bali during the UN Conference on Climate Change (UNFCCC) December 3-15, 2007, will exceed the carrying capacity of apron areas. To meet the added demand for aircraft storage officials are allocating "parking space" at other airports in Indonesia.
EJ adds:
U.S. Sales Rose 8.3% Day After Thanksgiving, ShopperTrak Says (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=axxUmt3svh4A&refer=home)
November 25, 2007 (Mary Jane Credeur and Kelly Riddell - Bloomberg)

U.S. consumers spent $10.3 billion on holiday purchases the day after Thanksgiving, 8.3 percent more than a year earlier, as retailers promoted toys and electronics to lure shoppers.

Consumers remained resilient and proved they were willing to spend even with oil prices rising and other economic pressures, ShopperTrak RCT Corp. said yesterday in a statement. The day after Thanksgiving, dubbed Black Friday, typically accounts for between 4.5 percent and 5 percent of all holiday sales, the company said.
``You've got to move product,'' Davidowitz [chairman of Davidowitz & Associates Inc., a New York-based retail consulting firm] said last week. ``And retailers are on a terrible sales trend, so there is no choice but to sell the inventory at what you can sell it at.''
The wife and I headed out to the local malls on the widely ignored "Buy Nothing Day" Nov. 23 and also the 24th. Indeed the malls were packed. We found Made in China goods at ridiculously low prices, such as a Sony iPod docking under-the-cabinet kitchen sound system and tuner for $50, after rebate. The dollar peg is helping China sell goods this year but the free floating euro is creating problems for European exporters.

Europe's exporters squeezed (http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-sun_front1125nov25,0,3751718.story?coll=chi-news-hed)
November 25, 2007 (Geraldine Baum, Tribune Newspapers)

The euro's rise and dollar's slide are squeezing European exporters' profits or multiplying their losses, prompting layoffs and plant closings. Firms are not only curbing production of goods headed to U.S. buyers, but also rethinking the way they do business. The euro recently passed the record $1.47 mark, gaining 11.5 percent since the beginning of the year against the greenback. A strong British pound, moribund Japanese yen and undervalued Chinese yuan also play roles in this tale of currency chaos, from a European exporter's perspective.
Shoppers have been trained over the past few years to buy the discounts. These occur at the start and the end of the holiday season, and the first two days offer 50% or greater incentives. We're going to head out again today to see if the heavy shopping during the two day deep discount period was "it" for the early part of the holidays or if shoppers are not all that price sensitive.

Final report from EJ's shopping with the wife:

Today, with the deep discounts over, the mall was no more busy than on an average Sunday afternoon. Keep in mind, the local economy is strong due to technology industry rebound, especially for companies with overseas markets, employment by large military firms and military sub-contractors, employment by biotech that is supported by a strong investment climate, and tourism supported by a weak dollar.

Reports from readers welcomed.

RebbePete
11-25-07, 08:31 PM
The big questions on after Thanksgiving sales are:

It doesn't matter how much retailers sold, the big question no one is talking about is "how much did they make?" If all people bought were the loss leaders, it's the old joke that "we lose a dollar on each widget, but make it up in volume."
How will sales hold up as we head into December?My wife and I went outlet shopping on Friday, since it's midway between our house and where we were going to visit family in Pennsylvania. It was only as busy as a usual mid-Summer weekday. From relatives there, we heard the same story we heard back in Maryland - the big retailers with the big sale items did well, other stores were no more crowded than usual. The Big Event seems to have been the $200 computer at Best Buy, which is what people were standing in line to get.

Today (Sunday), we headed out to the local mall, and it was only as busy as a typical Sunday. The only place where it looked a litle busy was in the women's clothing department, where it was maybe as busy as a Saturday instead of a Sunday.

- Pete, in Maryland

jk
11-25-07, 08:39 PM
this is the story BACK TO BACK at bloomberg's most-read page, with the reported INCREASE from shopper trek. conclusion: i think the data isn't in yet.

U.S. Consumers Spent Average of 3.5% Less on Shopping (Update4)
By Cotten Timberlake and Tiffany Kary

Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumers spent an average of 3.5 percent less during the post-Thanksgiving Day holiday weekend than a year earlier as retailers slashed prices to lure customers grappling with higher food and energy costs.
Shoppers spent $347.44 on purchases from Nov. 22 through today, choosing to buy less-expensive digital-photo frames and cashmere sweaters, the National Retail Federation said today in a statement. Store visits increased 4.8 percent.
Customers have cut back on spending in the face of increased costs for milk and gasoline and the worst housing slump in 16 years. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. responded by offering holiday discounts more than two weeks earlier than last year while Macy's Inc. and J.C. Penney Co. reduced clothing prices by as much as 60 percent.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=aTkTD9ecHP2g&refer=news

touchring
11-25-07, 09:24 PM
i only saw the first report. again, market manipulative news.

U.S. Sales Rose 8.3% Day After Thanksgiving, ShopperTrak Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=axxUmt3svh4A&refer=home

metalman
11-25-07, 10:02 PM
this is the story BACK TO BACK at bloomberg's most-read page, with the reported INCREASE from shopper trek. conclusion: i think the data isn't in yet.

U.S. Consumers Spent Average of 3.5% Less on Shopping (Update4)
By Cotten Timberlake and Tiffany Kary

Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumers spent an average of 3.5 percent less during the post-Thanksgiving Day holiday weekend than a year earlier as retailers slashed prices to lure customers grappling with higher food and energy costs.
Shoppers spent $347.44 on purchases from Nov. 22 through today, choosing to buy less-expensive digital-photo frames and cashmere sweaters, the National Retail Federation said today in a statement. Store visits increased 4.8 percent.
Customers have cut back on spending in the face of increased costs for milk and gasoline and the worst housing slump in 16 years. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. responded by offering holiday discounts more than two weeks earlier than last year while Macy's Inc. and J.C. Penney Co. reduced clothing prices by as much as 60 percent.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=aTkTD9ecHP2g&refer=news

now there's a friggin mystery. how can " U.S. Sales Rose 8.3% Day After Thanksgiving" and "U.S. Consumers Spent Average of 3.5% Less on Shopping"?

don't make sense. what are sales if not the sum of what consumers spend?

isn't that "conclusion: i think the data aren't in yet." not "conclusion: i think the data isn't in yet."

your grammar policeman - metalman

GRG55
11-25-07, 11:05 PM
...Meanwhile, the mythical Dept. of Clueless Leadership has summoned so many private jets to this year's climate conference that there's not enough space to park them all. Greenhouse gases never stopped a jet but maybe $200 oil will...

What next? A UN administered "jet fuel for food" programme - to keep their precious planes flying?



...
A Lack of Apron Area Will Compel Delegations Attending the UN Climate Change Conference to Park their Planes Outside of Bali (http://www.balidiscovery.com/messages/message.asp?Id=4112)
Nov. 25, 2007 (Bali News)
Tempo Interaktif reports that Angkasa Pura - the management of Bali's Ngurah Rai International Airport are concerned that the large number of additional private charter flights expected in Bali during the UN Conference on Climate Change (UNFCCC) December 3-15, 2007, will exceed the carrying capacity of apron areas. To meet the added demand for aircraft storage officials are allocating "parking space" at other airports in Indonesia.



Consistent with my next great secular global religion view, Bali seems another step on the way to the climate change equivalent of Vatican II. One way or another they are going to translate those mountains of scientific reports into language all us lay people can understand. The legislated "administer to the flock" stage can't be far off.

touchring
11-25-07, 11:15 PM
now there's a friggin mystery. how can " U.S. Sales Rose 8.3% Day After Thanksgiving" and "U.S. Consumers Spent Average of 3.5% Less on Shopping"?

don't make sense. what are sales if not the sum of what consumers spend?

isn't that "conclusion: i think the data aren't in yet." not "conclusion: i think the data isn't in yet."

your grammar policeman - metalman


Yea, and asian stocks rose today because of that 8.3% news. That one came out at the front!

zoog
11-25-07, 11:50 PM
now there's a friggin mystery. how can " U.S. Sales Rose 8.3% Day After Thanksgiving" and "U.S. Consumers Spent Average of 3.5% Less on Shopping"?

don't make sense. what are sales if not the sum of what consumers spend?

isn't that "conclusion: i think the data aren't in yet." not "conclusion: i think the data isn't in yet."

your grammar policeman - metalman

I'm probably thinking too hard about this but...


U.S. consumers spent $10.3 billion on holiday purchases the day after Thanksgiving, 8.3 percent more than a year earlier, as retailers promoted toys and electronics to lure shoppers.
Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumers spent an average of 3.5 percent less during the post-Thanksgiving Day holiday weekend than a year earlier as retailers slashed prices to lure customers grappling with higher food and energy costs.

Shoppers spent $347.44 on purchases from Nov. 22 through today [Nov. 25] ...So I suppose consumers spent more on the 23rd, but less overall from the 22nd through the 25th, compared to last year.

Jim Nickerson
11-26-07, 12:59 AM
now there's a friggin mystery. how can " U.S. Sales Rose 8.3% Day After Thanksgiving" and "U.S. Consumers Spent Average of 3.5% Less on Shopping"?

don't make sense. what are sales if not the sum of what consumers spend?

isn't that "conclusion: i think the data aren't in yet." not "conclusion: i think the data isn't in yet."

your grammar policeman - metalman

"Data" is plural, "datum" is singular. "Data aren't in yet" is correct, Pig!

Get another job besides "grammar policeman.":)

metalman
11-26-07, 09:18 AM
"Data" is plural, "datum" is singular. "Data aren't in yet" is correct, Pig!

Get another job besides "grammar policeman.":)

huh?

jk wrote


"conclusion: i think the data isn't in yet."metalman the grammar man wrote


"conclusion: i think the data aren't in yet."

grammar aside. jk is correct. the day's data was up 8.2% and the weekend's minus 3.5%.

jk
11-26-07, 12:08 PM
1. grammar- data is either a collective noun used as singular, or a plural. i think both are accepted at this time. this is an ever-evolving issue of usage. i still can't get used to the british treating corporations as plural collectives: e.g. coca-cola ARE producing a new product.

2. shopping: this morning i heard it as: there were over 4% more shoppers, each shopper this year spent 4.5% less per shopper, net there was 8.5% more total sales.

lb
11-29-07, 05:33 PM
The wife and I headed out to the local malls on the widely ignored "Buy Nothing Day" Nov. 23 and also the 24th. Indeed the malls were packed. We found Made in China goods at ridiculously low prices, such as a Sony iPod docking under-the-cabinet kitchen sound system and tuner for $50, after rebate. The dollar peg is helping China sell goods this year but the free floating euro is creating problems for European exporters.O RLY?

For the Week ending Nov 24th (which includes black Friday), same store chain sales DECLINED .1%

http://holiday.icsc.org/2007/press/149.pdf

Merry Grinchmas.

Chris Coles
12-04-07, 05:28 AM
Speaking as an Englishman, we get no holiday between Summer and Christmas.

I have assumed the reports mean that the volume of sales increased, but the income decreased. That is not good by any measure.

Margins must have decreased to a hairbreadth.

lb
12-04-07, 10:47 AM
The hits just keep on coming, I guess everyone is too busy buying stocks to be a good little consumer and support our economy. At least that lets the SP continue to defy gravity.

http://holiday.icsc.org/2007/press/151.pdf

Another w/w decline, this time -2%