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EJ
11-21-07, 06:53 PM
http://www.itulip.com/images/thankCONgress.jpgHappy Thanksgiving 2007

Over the past nine years, almost to the day, we have been fortunate to collect the most thoughtful, smart, widely read, well traveled, professionally diverse, hard working, intellectually rigorous, level headed, non conspiracy oriented skeptics from around the world–over 4,500 members from 78 countries. With your constant and consistent contributions of fresh perspective and constructive criticism we avoid the pitfalls of an editorial and ideological positive feed-back loop that dogs many Internet-based communities, leading to confirmation bias and other errors of judgment.

Truth is not a fact but a process, not a destination but a road. Not everyone is up to the work it takes to stay on it. In an ever-changing world, today's truth can be tomorrow's fiction. Among the transitory are eternal truths that recur over and over, pouring out across the centuries, as timeless as human nature. It takes fortitude and discipline to tell them apart, to question even our cherished beliefs, to sort fact from fiction, signal from noise, the constant from the variable, to get to the bottom of things, and be willing to discard a beloved and hard earned insight once the evidence no longer supports it.

You, as one of our community, whether you participate on our forums frequently, rarely, or just not yet, deserve congratulations for the unusual quality of curiosity and dissatisfaction that drives you to stay with us even when the answers to your questions do not readily present themselves. Not a day goes by that we do not feel fortunate to have your good company and support. So even if you are not in the U.S. and do not celebrate this holiday, we use the occasion to express our gratitude to you as well.

As the housing market led recession and risk pollution induced financial market crisis we foresaw in 2006 comes into focus for everyone and begins to dominate the financial news, the risks for our readers will begin to shift from too much complacency to too much caution. The process will be gradual, over a period of years, and has only just begun. Along the way and especially at the end of it there will be once-in-a-lifetime opportunities to invest in certain markets after the financial and monetary systems complete their adaptation. Emotional preparation is just as important as keeping powder dry for the next reflation trade–which, in my opinion, most are going to get as wrong in this cycle as in 2001.

Emotional preparation for occasional bouts of panic on the way down, and staying grounded and away from the pervasive negativism that marks the bottom of these periods, will be as important as having money left to invest. But even more important than that is staying focused on what is truly important: health and happiness, family and friends.

Wishing the our growing community a Safe, Healthy, and Happy Thanksgiving,

Eric Janszen and the iTulip crew: FRED, OnPoint, qwerty, tree, SeanO, and John Serrapere

Jim Nickerson
11-21-07, 11:37 PM
http://www.itulip.com/images/thankCONgress.jpgHappy Thanksgiving 2007

Over the past nine years, almost to the day, we have been fortunate to collect the most thoughtful, smart, widely read, well traveled, professionally diverse, hard working, intellectually rigorous, level headed, non conspiracy oriented skeptics from around the world. Due to your constant and consistent contributions of fresh perspective and constructive criticism we avoid the pitfalls of the editorial and ideological positive feed-back loop that leads to confirmation bias and other errors of judgment. Not a day goes by that we do not feel fortunate to have your company and support. So even if you are not in the U.S. and do not celebrate this holiday, we use the occasion to express our gratitude to you as well.

As the housing market led recession and risk pollution induced financial market crisis we foresaw in 2006 comes into focus for everyone and begins to dominate the financial news, the risks for our readers will start to shift from too much complacency to too much caution. The process will be gradual, over a period of perhaps years. At the end of it there will be once-in-a-lifetime opportunities to invest in certain markets after the financial and monetary systems completes their adaptation. We are in the early innings of that process. Emotional preparation is just as important as keeping powder dry for the next reflation trade–which, in my opinion, most commentators are going to get as wrong in this cycle as they did in 2001.

Not going along with the negativism and occasional bouts of panic that attend these periods will be as important as having money left to invest. But even more important than that is staying focused on what is truly important: health and happiness, family and friends.

Wishing the our community a Safe, Healthy, and Happy Thanksgiving,

Eric Janszen and the iTulip crew: FRED, OnPoint, qwerty, tree, SeanO, and John Serrapere

Hey, EJ, who where are these individuals to whom you refer? Shucks, I sure would like to read what some of them have to say. :confused::)

Am I to take it that this Thanksgiving message is notification at OnPoint, qwerty, and tree are iTulip employees?

Oh, and Happy Thanksgiving to you all too.

Chris Coles
11-22-07, 06:16 AM
Thank you for that Eric. Have a great holiday.

Chris.

Finster
11-22-07, 10:25 AM
Ditto. And thank you for bringing us iTulip.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Sapiens
11-22-07, 11:55 AM
Happy Thanksgiving!

May we be blessed to share the bounty of the Earth, find peace within our heart and the resolution to co-exist with each other.

Wishing you health, happiness and harmony, from my family to you and yours.

-Sapiens

jk
11-22-07, 02:45 PM
one of the things i am thankful for is this community. i've been thinking about the economy and markets for decades, and never had anyone to talk to about them. you are all a gift.

Verrocchio
11-22-07, 03:27 PM
[quote=EJ;20572]http://www.itulip.com/images/thankCONgress.jpgHappy Thanksgiving 2007


This site is a blessing for all who think financial security is important for self, loved ones, and others. I am grateful for it and all who post here. Much thanks and many happy returns, EJ!

BTW, I can't ignore the graphic, juxtaposing as it does Congress and turkeys. Is it meant to convey that the turkeys will soon come home to roost?! :rolleyes:

http://wordnet.princeton.edu/perl/webwn?s=turkey
S: (http://wordnet.princeton.edu/perl/webwn?o2=&o0=1&o7=&o5=&o1=1&o6=&o4=&o3=&s=turkey&i=4&h=00000#c) (n) turkey, bomb (http://wordnet.princeton.edu/perl/webwn?o2=&o0=1&o7=&o5=&o1=1&o6=&o4=&o3=&s=bomb), dud (http://wordnet.princeton.edu/perl/webwn?o2=&o0=1&o7=&o5=&o1=1&o6=&o4=&o3=&s=dud) (an event that fails badly or is totally ineffectual) "the first experiment was a real turkey"; "the meeting was a dud as far as new business was concerned"

Contemptuous
11-22-07, 04:42 PM
Yeah but there's got to be some way iTulip can squeeze some BONARS out of this whole Thanksgiving song and dance. Season's greetings and Turkey Day. OK. All this sentimental porridge is well and good (bubbly's good too), but where's the MERCHANDISING??

How you gonna grow this thing without the MERCHANDISING?

Here's a billboard from last year's chatchka and keychain giveaways. The project was "warmed over" for 2008, but it's looking tired. Where's the Madison Avenue marketing guy's iTulip was supposed to use to jazz up the display window? I mean, you can't have a message without the marketing! That's un-American!



122

Chris Coles
11-23-07, 08:15 AM
Lukester, that is just wonderful, best laugh I have had in ages. But I do hope the choc bars have more than 70% cocao solids. Cannot have merchandising without also making the point that iTulip is at the top of the tree and we do not sell dodgy "anything".

Chris.

metalman
11-23-07, 09:50 AM
Yeah but there's got to be some way iTulip can squeeze some BONARS out of this whole Thanksgiving song and dance. Season's greetings and Turkey Day. OK. All this sentimental porridge is well and good (bubbly's good too), but where's the MERCHANDISING??

How you gonna grow this thing without the MERCHANDISING?

Here's a billboard from last year's chatchka and keychain giveaways. The project was "warmed over" for 2008, but it's looking tired. Where's the Madison Avenue marketing guy's iTulip was supposed to use to jazz up the display window? I mean, you can't have a message without the marketing! That's un-American!


122

i don't see nuthin' just some text...

Name: IMG-001.gif Views: 34 Size: 78.9 KB

what's that mean?

rzero
11-23-07, 04:51 PM
i don't see nuthin' just some text...

Name: IMG-001.gif Views: 34 Size: 78.9 KB

what's that mean?

Metalman- I was having this problem on some threads as well. For some reason this forum makes a distinction between my login from the "new posts" page and my login from the forum main page. I have to be logged in both ways if I want to see both new posts and attached images.

metalman
11-23-07, 05:37 PM
Metalman- I was having this problem on some threads as well. For some reason this forum makes a distinction between my login from the "new posts" page and my login from the forum main page. I have to be logged in both ways if I want to see both new posts and attached images.

tried logging in both ways. still nuthin. why not use insert image instead of attach?

Contemptuous
11-23-07, 07:27 PM
Like, awesome! Check out the iTulip chocolate wrapper wallpaper, dude. It's the latest must-have fashion accessory.

ASH
11-24-07, 02:13 AM
I got out of school in 2003 and started working in 2004 (after a 6-month detour for training to join the Marine Corps Reserve). Up until this point -- having no disposable income -- I had considered neither investment nor buying a house. Suddenly I had some money and the opportunity to do both, but being a deliberative sort, I first set about educating myself on matters financial and economic.

So there I was, with no prior financial experience or economic training, receiving advice from all sides, armed only with my wits. I read 'high-brow' publications like The Economist and mainstream mass market websites like MSN Money; I read an edition of Benjamin Graham's "The Intelligent Investor" (but truth be told, Jason Zweig's commentary was more at the level I could immediately use). I saw friends and co-workers rush to buy houses, and I listened to their explanations -- when they could articulate explanations -- about why now was the time to buy. There was a real estate bubble! There was no bubble! Peak oil was here! Oil prices are cyclic and would soon collapse! Inflation has been slain forever by the wisdom of central banks! Inflation -- and downward pressure on the dollar -- was waiting in the wings!

In similar circumstances -- faced with conflicting testimony from 'experts' and with no direct personal experience for guidance -- most people choose to believe the version of reality that is most agreeable to them. I, however, by both temperament and training, am a scientist. I thought about the structure of the arguments presented to me -- to what extent they were quantitative (e.g. the ratio of home prices to rents or wages, the size of our current account deficit relative to our economy, etc.) rather than 'hand-wavy' and the quality of their logic. Eventually, a coherent group of reliable advisors emerged -- sources with consistently good reasoning backed by hard numbers -- and I drank the koolaid: housing and the dollar were headed for a fall.

Although I now know that iTulip had called the housing bubble far in advance of my other sources (The Economist ran a cover story calling it the biggest bubble in history, and Bill Fleckenstein had been railing against the housing market for some time), I wasn't introduced to iTulip until after I had reached some of the same basic conclusions put forth on this website. What I want to thank EJ and the iTulip community for goes far beyond a few words to the wise. What iTulip has done for me is to fully develop the back story and theoretical framework required to understand what is going on, and what might transpire in the future. A tip is one thing -- the education required to understand the tip is something else entirely!

All of this is a long-winded way of saying 'thank you' for being rational, data-driven, and ahead of the curve on important economic events. Thank you for explaining your predictions in enough detail to weigh their likely accuracy. Thank you for publishing a comprehensive and self-consistent picture of what is really going on in the economy. I feel that I've played my opening hand managing my finances well, and that's thanks in no small part to iTulip.