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View Full Version : Weak Dollar Policy hits US trade partners, recession nears



FRED
10-25-07, 07:40 PM
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AntiSpin: Recession? Really? With millions of homeowners facing foreclosure, ARM resets, and other problems, who could have guessed?


"There is a growing concern for an economic recession in the United States,'' said Toru Umemoto, chief currency strategist at Barclays Bank Plc, citing the spillover effect of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis into consumption in the United States.

Umemoto also warned that the housing slump will also have a downside effect on employment, as seen in large-scale layoffs by major U.S. financial institutions including Bank of America Corp.'s announcement Wednesday to cut 3000 employees.

This next story is consistent with our observation of a trend change in the duration of unemployment: a rising mean as occurs before recessions.

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...certain to raise concerns about whether the severe slump in housing and a serious credit crunch were beginning to adversely affect the overall economy.
AntiSpin: Here are a bunch more downward revisions to past data releases. As an economy heads into recession, downward revisions are like cockroaches–never just one.


There were sizable downward revisions to sales totals for August, July and June. Those revisions show that housing was much weaker than believed in the middle of the year. In addition, sales of new homes were down 23.3 percent from September, 2006.


Other new reports showed economic weakness. The Commerce Department said durable goods orders fell 1.7 percent in September. The result was weaker than the 1.5 percent gain expected by economists, but marked an improvement over a 5.3 percent plunge in August.

The two straight months of orders slowdowns mirrors national manufacturing softness and suggests that problems in housing won't be offset by business spending, according to Ian Shepherdson, Chief U.S. Economist at High Frequency Economics.

Claims for state unemployment benefits last week fell by 8,000 to 331,000, but the more reliable four-week average reached its highest level in seven weeks, the Labor Department said. Economists expected a larger drop in the latest week.

AntiSpin: This recession is going to go down as the most obvious recession never predicted.

Meanwhile, the Weak Dollar Policy is chipping away at export-based economies whose currencies, unlike China's, are not tied to the dollar. Korea, for example.

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AntiSpin: And Germany...

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AntiSpin: In fact, all of Europe is starting so slow down as the strong euro policy loses out to the weak dollar policy.

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AntiSpin: How much longer will US trade partners tolerate the US keeping its post-housing bubble economy alive on the backs of its trade partners? Some euro members have housing bubbles of their own to deal with. Seems the only one that's doing well is the one that isn't following the rules: China.

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DemonD
10-26-07, 03:03 AM
Sounds like projections are coming to fruition.

Also wanted to note that I'm not sure what you guys are doing with those ads, but it made it harder to concentrate and read the post. (BTW I'm not criticizing the use of ads in the post, just that they interrupted the message more than is acceptable. I don't get that distracted reading a marketwatch, FT, forbes, or yahoo article that all have similar ads in them. Plus it made the thread load a helluva lot slower.)

FRED
10-26-07, 09:03 AM
Sounds like projections are coming to fruition.

Also wanted to note that I'm not sure what you guys are doing with those ads, but it made it harder to concentrate and read the post. (BTW I'm not criticizing the use of ads in the post, just that they interrupted the message more than is acceptable. I don't get that distracted reading a marketwatch, FT, forbes, or yahoo article that all have similar ads in them. Plus it made the thread load a helluva lot slower.)

You may have noticed we got rid of the Amazon context links, by popular request. (No one complained when we removed them a few weeks ago!) We are trying an experiment with using Mochila syndicated content. The good news: you get to read the whole story here that we comment on in News with AntiSpin rather than having to go off to another site. The bad news: that convenience comes at the cost of an embedded ad, and the ads are very LOUD, as you say. Perhaps we can improve on them somehow.

Thanks for the feedback. Other feedback welcomed.

raja
10-26-07, 10:21 AM
Y
Thanks for the feedback. Other feedback welcomed.
Ads that move or flash are VERY distracting.

BlackVoid
10-26-07, 11:10 AM
Get Firefox with Flashblock plugin - no more annoying ads. On any site. I do not mind picture ads, but flash is just way over the top. I just block it.
Firefox can also block pictures and pop-ups from any site you want.

FRED
10-26-07, 11:14 AM
Ads that move or flash are VERY distracting.

It is an odd choice of ads by Mochila. You'd think they'd try to match the ad to the content. The Flash (video) based whack-a-mole and cow tipping ads are better suited to a younger audience. Our audience is mostly over 40 years old. The singles ads don't figure, either.

We'll see how it goes. Maybe the ads will improve. Thanks again for the feedback.

jk
10-26-07, 12:54 PM
i just want to second blackvoid's recommendation of firefox. i use the adblock extension and until i read the comments, i wasn't even aware there were pictures, let alone flash, associated with those ads.

FRED
10-26-07, 01:02 PM
i just want to second blackvoid's recommendation of firefox. i use the adblock extension and until i read the comments, i wasn't even aware there were pictures, let alone flash, associated with those ads.

Here at iTUlip we use a Firefox plugin called NoScript (http://noscript.net/) for security reasons. Recommended.

jimmygu3
10-26-07, 01:22 PM
I'm well aware that you need to run ads to generate revenue, but IMHO these ads are annoying and cheapen the message. I did find it a little funny on a site that highlights the growing divide between the wealthy and the working class to see 4 ads to visit the Biltmore house. At first I thought the ad was a joke.

Another new issue, possibly related to the Mochilla transition: Safari browser no longer works. When you roll your mouse over any of the links or buttons, the links disappear! I have tried 2 different Macs and get the exact same behavior on both. I'm now using Firefox, which works and can also block the ads.

FRED
10-26-07, 01:40 PM
I'm well aware that you need to run ads to generate revenue, but IMHO these ads are annoying and cheapen the message. I did find it a little funny on a site that highlights the growing divide between the wealthy and the working class to see 4 ads to visit the Biltmore house. At first I thought the ad was a joke.

Another new issue, possibly related to the Mochilla transition: Safari browser no longer works. When you roll your mouse over any of the links or buttons, the links disappear! I have tried 2 different Macs and get the exact same behavior on both. I'm now using Firefox, which works and can also block the ads.

Not so much running ads to generate revenue as running news stories and commenting on them in the iTulip News with AntiSpin way. Readers have complained about having to go off to other sites to read the story we're writing about. This way we can print the whole article. The downside is the ads. Frankly, I liked tipping the cow over... but that's just me.

Charles Mackay
10-26-07, 02:35 PM
I'm well aware that you need to run ads to generate revenue, but IMHO these ads are annoying and cheapen the message. I did find it a little funny on a site that highlights the growing divide between the wealthy and the working class to see 4 ads to visit the Biltmore house. At first I thought the ad was a joke.

Another new issue, possibly related to the Mochilla transition: Safari browser no longer works. When you roll your mouse over any of the links or buttons, the links disappear! I have tried 2 different Macs and get the exact same behavior on both. I'm now using Firefox, which works and can also block the ads.

The worst one is the REAL DOW slooooooow load on the Home Page...Now, that is seriously annoying every time I logon to iTulip.

zoog
10-26-07, 02:50 PM
The worst one is the REAL DOW slooooooow load on the Home Page...Now, that is seriously annoying every time I logon to iTulip.

I bookmarked the Forums page to avoid that.

Surprised that people have complained about going off-site to read the full articles. It's not like you have to drive to another bookstore, it's just one click. I prefer a short snippet of the essence of the article, and a link to the full thing if I want to read all of it.

Hypatia1
10-26-07, 02:52 PM
Hmmm...

I always thought that iTulip was raking in tons of cash by licensing their patented "Spinning Head Technology".... :p

FRED
10-26-07, 03:20 PM
I bookmarked the Forums page to avoid that.

Surprised that people have complained about going off-site to read the full articles. It's not like you have to drive to another bookstore, it's just one click. I prefer a short snippet of the essence of the article, and a link to the full thing if I want to read all of it.

Well why didn't ya say so? We just removed the offending code from the front page.

We'll keep tweaking. Thanks again. The feedback is great.

FRED
10-26-07, 03:21 PM
Hmmm...

I always thought that iTulip was raking in tons of cash by licensing their patented "Spinning Head Technology".... :p

US Patent # 345,463,678,879 (not really)

raja
10-26-07, 03:36 PM
Surprised that people have complained about going off-site to read the full articles. It's not like you have to drive to another bookstore, it's just one click. I prefer a short snippet of the essence of the article, and a link to the full thing if I want to read all of it.

I agree with zoog. Also, if you middle click the link, it opens up a new tab, so you don't have to lose your place on iTulip.

raja
10-26-07, 03:40 PM
As suggested, I implemented the Firefox Flashblocker and NoScript. Now I don't see the referenced articles . . . . Also, I can't use the Smilies, Add Quote or Add Link buttons when writing a post . . . . (picture an unhappy face here).

Charles Mackay
10-26-07, 03:45 PM
As suggested, I implemented the Firefox Flashblocker and NoScript. Now I don't see the referenced articles . . . . Also, I can't use the Smilies, Add Quote or Add Link buttons when writing a post . . . . (picture an unhappy face here).

raja, I found the extension noscript but where did you get Flashblocker?

FRED
10-26-07, 03:46 PM
As suggested, I implemented the Firefox Flashblocker and NoScript. Now I don't see the referenced articles . . . . Also, I can't use the Smilies, Add Quote or Add Link buttons when writing a post . . . . (picture an unhappy face here).

Ok, so click on the S icon on the bottom right corner of the page. Turn on the scripts you enabled: itulip.com, etc.

FRED
10-26-07, 03:48 PM
raja, I found the extension noscript but where did you get Flashblocker?

BTW, if you use Flashblocker you can't see the YouTube and other videos.

jk
10-26-07, 04:38 PM
adblock plus is simpler and avoids the problems mentioned here. noscript and flashblocker may be overkill for most users.

may i also recommend tabmix plus. whenever i click on an itulip link it automatically opens another tab for the link. also try colorful tabs [as long as i've digressed this far].

zoog
10-26-07, 05:00 PM
Ok, so click on the S icon on the bottom right corner of the page. Turn on the scripts you enabled: itulip.com, etc.

I feel like there's something wrong about discussing ad-blocking browser plugins on a website that's trying to find an acceptable way to display advertisements to help defray the cost of running the site.:eek: But I don't feel bad enough to disable my ad-blocker...;)

I use the Adblock extension for Firefox, along with the Filterset.G Updater which periodically sends out an updated block list. It handles Flash ads as well as bitmaps, and in my experience covers at least 95%, and that may be conservative. You can add your own custom filters if needed. It does not interfere with YouTube or the blog posting tools (emoticons, add link, etc).

The Google/Amazon links-in-posts ads really bugged me, so I'm glad to see those gone. (It is funny though that I didn't really notice the absence... humans seem more likely to complain than to praise.) The Mochila ads (with the Adblock running) just look like pale yellow one-line boxes with the words "Sponsored Links" on the right.

Remember back when Al Gore invented the internet (:rolleyes::p) and it was going to be this free resource available to everyone in the world? Nothing is ever really free. Running a website with the kinds of traffic loads that iTulip sees must be quite expensive. It seems like more and more websites are turning to a subscription model, but to entice people to subscribe, you have to offer at least some content for free, and I doubt there will ever be enough subscribers to offset the costs of running the free side of the site.

I think it is a problem of managing expectations. Those of us who've been on the web for quite a while (and I certainly was not amongst the first, but it's been about a decade now) remember when there were no advertisements to speak of, and only porn sites were demanding payment for access. But corporate America and the advertising agencies finally realized the potential for a new advertising medium, and in their usual lack of restraint, they flooded the internet with more ads than anyone could handle. As people became somewhat desensitized to static images, they moved to animated GIFs, and then on to Flash animations and windows that cover up the text you're trying to read, etc. They've made us all so annoyed, we long for the "good old days". If they had jumped on web advertising in the earliest days, we'd probably accept it more easily, just like we accepted radio and TV ads. (Well, those who watch "live" TV, anyway.:p)

raja
10-26-07, 10:20 PM
raja, I found the extension noscript but where did you get Flashblocker?
https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/433

However, I disabled Flashblocker and NoScript and now use Adblocker plus, per jk's recommendation.
It works well :D

Jim Nickerson
10-27-07, 01:31 AM
Not so much running ads to generate revenue as running news stories and commenting on them in the iTulip News with AntiSpin way. Readers have complained about having to go off to other sites to read the story we're writing about. This way we can print the whole article. The downside is the ads. Frankly, I liked tipping the cow over... but that's just me.

Who is "me"? If me is one of the four Freds, I thought one of them wrote he was going to sign his personal comments "by Fred."

jk
10-27-07, 05:05 AM
Who is "me"? If me is one of the four Freds, I thought one of them wrote he was going to sign his personal comments "by Fred."
that was some other fred. this reminds me of a [true] story i read about a woman who accused a fellow member of her multiple personality disorder therapy group of rape. his defense was that another of her personalities had consented.

Andreuccio
10-29-07, 03:46 PM
I agree with zoog. Also, if you middle click the link, it opens up a new tab, so you don't have to lose your place on iTulip.

I always right click and then "open in new window" so I don't lose my place. I end up with 20 open windows. That's one reason I make sure I have lots of RAM.

Andreuccio
10-29-07, 03:49 PM
Oh, and I agree with Zoog, too. In fact, I think it may be better the old way. If I'm only moderately interested in something, I get the executive summary. If I'm more interested, I can click to read the whole article.

touchring
11-05-07, 11:14 PM
I always right click and then "open in new window" so I don't lose my place. I end up with 20 open windows. That's one reason I make sure I have lots of RAM.


Use IE7 or firefox, select "open new tab". ;)

Andreuccio
11-14-07, 01:07 PM
Use IE7 or firefox, select "open new tab". ;)

I do use Firefox at home. I don't really like the tabs. I prefer new windows. It's easier for me to find stuff.