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da bear
09-07-07, 12:17 PM
Da Bear Report
September Edition

"There's an old...saying in Tennessee...I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee that says Fool me once...(3 second pause)... Shame on...(4 second pause)...Shame on you....(6 second pause)...Fool me...Can't get fooled again." --George W. Bush to Nashville, Tennessee audience, Sept. 17, 2002.

Dow 911: The price level at which the DJIA has long-term support.

It's true. look at the long-term dow chart. it started a great bull market in 1982 and steadily went up from there, crashed in 1987, took off again, and zoomed into a peak into 2000 (which i believe to be the true bull market top). so it never really formed any support level in the late eighties up until now.

chart: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=djia&time=20&freq=2

from that chart it shows the Dow hovering around 1,000 or so from 1972 to 1983. and it hit that level a few years earlier too.

plus its the last major fourth wave for the Dow. so it could very well hit that. that would be a shock wouldn't it bubbleviewers?

but every mania has ended at a price level lower than where it started. that means the entire bull market from 1982 to 2000 with the greatest sucker's rally ever from 2002 to 2007 should be retraced. and a new bull can begin!!!

the EWI guys said that the Dow-gold ratio low could hit 2 to 1. dow at 911 (the low of wave 4 for DJIA) would equal 450 or so for gold (which, incidentally is the preceding fourth wave low, if you count gold as beginning a new long-term bull market a few years ago. furthermore, if you take the percentage that the Dow dropped from 2000 to 2003 and apply it to the high in gold last year, the low would be around $450.

gold has dropped when stocks have crashed in the past. such as in October 1987. gold mining stocks got killed in a bad way, too. if one needs to add some gold to his insurance position and hedge position then after a big stock crash could be a good time to do so. if gold has a panic sell-off of 15% from $666 an ounce, it would go to $566 which should be a pretty decent spot to pick up some gold.

this is a long holiday weekend. my short term investments would be to fill up the gas tank and get cash out of the bank and pick up some precious metals coins if you wish. plus the September 11th countdown is coming...

my Police State Gas Pick of the Week: basic unleaded.

Stock Market Crashes are Allowed to Happen...

Put options for this month are huge in volume! people are calling it the bin Laden trade. sep. is usually a weak month for stocks. and the four year cycle low has not yet occurred according to tim wood. so we could get a false flag terror attack or a stock market crash or both. yippee!!!

the current market has been compared to the 1987 market by one analyst. it fits pretty well. however, since the current market topped in july, and that one topped in august, our setup is about a month early. which could put us at crash levels in september. October could come early this year.

the other market that is most compared to 1987 is 1929 and the Dow topped in early september then. but the setup is the same. credit binge, stock mania, margin calls and forced selling, plus a florida land and real estate boom that topped two years earlier? we got that!

here is a link to chart comparing today with 1987 and 1929. just scroll down some for the chart:

link: http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm

that particular chart has us right up against the big decline. The current stock market is slouching towards a crash.

Bob Prechter noted that september and october are weak months for stocks, and that years ending in '7' are weak years (1907, 1987).

I think that a crash like this would be more alarming to the investment public because of the sheer numbers involved. the Dow could go down 1,000 points and not even be down 10%. so that would catch the public off guard. but of course the PPT would step in at the end of the day and buy some. so we would only be down about 911 points at that point.

Down 911! The one day decline in the DJIA that would make joe investor swear off stocks for good.

Here are more observations from urbansurvival.com:

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If This were 1929 or 1987...

This would be a marvelous day if we were exactly replaying the pre-mini-crash period of 1987. Today would be October 5 of 1987 and the Dow would close today at (an equivalent of) 13,557.48. On the other hand, if this was 1929, it would be October 11th, 1929, and the Dow would close today at around 12,982.95. In both cases, today would be the 'last train out' before the respective slides began.

It's therefore none too comforting to realize that the Dow yesterday close was 259.51 points below where the track went in 1987 but561.15 points above the 1929 track.

Can you say "bracketed"?

from urbansurvival.com

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Our good friend Ecig posted a few days ago the following:

he saw a website with this:

"1990: The Djia peaks on 17th July 1990 and turns. This is the start of a correction that takes it down 21.8% over 63 trading days over shooting the 200 week moving average by 0.5%

1998: The Djia peaks on 17th July 1998 and turns. This is the start of a correction that takes it down 21.6% over 31 trading days

2007: The Djia peaks on 17th July 2007 and turns. This is the start of a correction at a time when the 200-week moving average was sitting 21.50% below the peak."


Da Bear Comment: so that is certainly interesting. it goes along with Peter Eliades observation of a 75 year bottom to top cycle. the dow made its all-time low of 41 in July 1932. 75 years later would be July 2007. so that would be another reason in favor of a top.

secondly, tim wood has been saying that the four year cycle low has not occurred yet. he thinks that it could hit its cycle low hard. i guess it would be comparable to 1987.

In 1907 JP Morgan manipulated a stock market crash, so the little guy would say "never again" to stock crashes, and "something must be done." so JP Morgan stepped in after the Panic and bought. he also provided his Solution (of Problem-Reaction-Solution fame), called the Federal Reserve Bank.

well, we all know what happened after that (crash of '29, long term collapse of the real economy), and people now are calling for an end to the Fed. is this the time the Big Boys let the market go and tell the PPT (the NORAD of financial markets) to stand down?

will they propose their "Solution" of an Amero attached to a North American Union with a bigger central bank?


either way i am calling for a stock market crash this fall. my da bear stock market sell signal remains in effect. manias are like lightning. it never hits in the same place twice until you forget about it. then it hits twice. in the same place. to the same unlucky dude. which is why i never hear about someone getting hit by lightning unless its the guy that got hit by lightening six times. and that happens more times than you'd think.

so lightening is gonna hit cash. and that ******* sucks. because cash is really only paper. and paper catches fire, and fire burns, and burning paper ain't liquid. so it turns to ashes. or disappears. and only a few of the paper fiats survive. the ones that are put out by bin Bernanke's hos.
and that is what you deflationary.

Here is a great article by Tim Wood about stocks and cycles. I posted it in the forum earlier but i thought i would put it in this Report too...

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The Battle Rages as the Chickens Come Home to Roost

The battle between the natural forces of the market and the desire to prevent these natural forces from occurring has now moved to a new level. Up until recently, these efforts were more subtle and more traditional. We are now seeing an outright campaign to keep the market afloat. As I see it, these efforts do not instill confidence, but rather go to show just how desperate the situation with the market truly is.

Back in 2000 when that market top occurred, the Dow theory had confirmed that a Primary Trend change had occurred. In addition, my cyclical quantifications surrounding the 4-year cycle called for a decline that would at minimum, take the Industrials down below the 1998 4-year cycle low, which did in fact occur. As the market moved into that 4-year cycle low in 2002, the cyclical bias of the market began turning up as the new 4-year cycle low was made. By June 2003 both the Transports and the Industrials had moved above their previous Secondary High Points, which told us that the Primary Trend had then turned up. So at that time, there was an intermediate-term positive bias to the market. Longer-term, all indications were that this was a giant rally that would serve to separate Phase I from Phase II of a much longer-term bear market and the threat of deflation, which the Fed is deathly afraid of, was staring us in the face.

However, back in 2001 the natural long-term cycles in the entire commodity complex had bottomed. By the time the stock market hit bottom in 2002 and began moving up in 2003, the long-term cyclical advance in commodities was well underway. As the stock market continued to advance we continued to see more and more interest rate cuts and massive increases in the money supply, which of course were all efforts to hold the market up and to kill the deflationary threat. The efforts were made because the Fed, too, knew the threat and the critical state of the market. As a result of their efforts along with the fact that both stocks and commodities had made major long-term cycle lows, the unprecedented liquidity campaign served to stretch the commodity cycles and set off the inflationary environment that began in late 2001. For those of you that don’t remember, in November 2001 gold was 271 dollars per ounce. Crude oil was 18 dollars per barrel and the spot price for gasoline was 48 cents per gallon. In my area gasoline sells for about 60 cents a gallon over the spot, which would have put the price at the pump just over a buck.

Another by-product of this massive re-inflation effort was the housing bubble, which at the time I specifically remember that no one wanted to admit existed, much less that there was a problem. In any event, most everyone with so much as a pulse was buying houses. It was a building and refinance frenzy. People were “taking advantage” of low interest rates and rising housing prices to refinance their homes and/or to take out home equity loans for luxury items that they normally would not have been able to “afford.” People were also taking “advantage” of variable rate mortgages and balloon payments. There were commercials on TV advertising loans in which you could refinance your house at up to 125% of its value. Home appraisals were being inflated and loans based on those appraisals were common place. I asked then and I still ask today, what were people thinking? What were the banks thinking and why were they caught up in such madness to allow themselves to make such loans in the first place?

The level of this frenzy continues to amaze me. I was talking to a friend just this week, who was telling me a story about the Branch Manager of his bank. This person was telling him that she was having to refinance her house because even she had fallen for a variable rate mortgage and her payment had doubled. This same person was also trying to talk him into “putting some money to work in the market” through some of the bank’s many wonderful programs. Again, seemingly intelligent people were caught up in the housing bubble. I guess most everyone believed that rates would stay low forever and that prices would continue to increase forever.

In any event, the re-inflation efforts to promote and spend the US economy out of the hole it was in was successful. These efforts sent commodity prices higher and served to stretch the natural cycle further than normal. The housing bubble was ignited and the stock market was literally resurrected from the grip of a massive bear market. I have absolutely no doubt about that as by all historical measures, the market was in serious trouble and had indeed slipped into a major bear market.

Well, things are different now and as the old saying goes, “The chickens are now coming home to roost.” I first reported here in the October 28, 2005 Wrap Up that based on the cyclical structure of the hosing indexes we were very close to having a confirmed long-term top in housing. That confirmation soon followed. I have more recently in the July 13, 2007 Wrap Up shown you how the housing market typically leads the stock market at 4-year cycle tops. At present, I now see indications that most commodities have now topped. Plus, as anyone who has been reading my articles on the stock market know, I have been saying that the 4-year cycle has not bottomed and that the re-inflation efforts have simply served to stretch the 4-year cycle advance well beyond the historical norms.

As I see things we are now at the exact opposite end of the spectrum from where we were in 2002. First, the housing market has no doubt topped just as I first said nearly two years ago. But, it was not until more recently this year that we began to see the problems surrounding the housing bubble begin to surface. Everyone is now aware of the sub-prime mortgage issues. But there are also other issues with people with variable rate mortgages, declining housing prices and many people that used there homes as banks to finance their life style are now left sitting with larger mortgages and in many cases higher payments to boot. Secondly, the cyclical environment for commodities has run its course as these long-term cycles are now rolling over, and in many cases have already begun moving down. Third, the stock market now sits at or near the top of one of the longest extended 4-year cycle advances in stock market history.

So at this point, as I see it, we now have an even worse problem than we did back in 2001 and 2002. Who is left to buy a house? The mortgage problems are all over the news and foreclosures and defaults are escalating nationwide. Long-term commodity cycles are rolling over and the stock market is extremely over extended with the pressures of the 4-year cycle bearing down. This is not good, not good at all, and the Fed knows it. Proof of the seriousness of this situation is seen simply by the increasingly drastic measures that we are now seeing. As soon as the market began to decline in late July they took their efforts to another level by publicly announcing their efforts. This was all occurring before the market had even fallen 5%. In the last month we have seen bank repos, we saw the Discount window extended from overnight to 30 days with an option to extend it out to 60 days, and the propaganda surrounding this is that it’s now considered a sign of strength. What? Last Friday we saw an engineered cut of the Discount rate conveniently occur on option expiration day. On August 22nd we saw J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, Bank of America and Wachovia borrow $2 billion dollars from the Federal reserve. Later that night it was reported that Bank of America, coincidentally, made a $2 billion dollar purchase in the struggling mortgage company Countrywide. Hummm! Seems that the monetization of the debt has begun.

The commodity cycles have topped, the housing market and the credit markets are in shambles. The average consumer is now saturated with debt, and the forces of the over stretched 4-year cycle in the stock market is pressuring the market in a big way. But perhaps, just perhaps, the Fed can engineer another gasp for the market. But at this point I really have my doubts, and even if they can, it won’t last, and it certainly won’t make the issues go away. The 4-year cycle low that most people believed occurred last summer never occurred, and that evidence is now beginning to present itself. Just as I have said all along, this cycle has been stretched, the low still lies ahead and we are now only just beginning to see the unwinding into this very overdue low. For anyone who still has doubts about this, then I have to ask, why do you think we are seeing such drastic measures to save the market? Guys, we are truly sitting on a house of cards, and when the masters of the financial universe are afraid to even see the market correct 5%, it should tell you something. There is an awakening coming and you have been warned.

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In 2001 traders placed bets that things would go down. airline stocks mainly. perhaps they had inside information. perhaps they didn't.

but it was still strange.

then greenie made huge liquidity injections before september 11th.
Rudie Julie Annie is Mr. 9-11. lets call Alan Greenspan Mr. 9-10.

but Reichstag Rudy was in wtc 7 before it crashed. lets call him Mr. 9-10 as well.

so that attack pretty much was a disaster. box cutters did it. just think how bad the damage would have been with real live Arab terrorists!!!

on that fateful day thousands of people died, billions of bogus US Treasury bonds housed in Cantor Fitzgerald perished, and Big Broker stock paper trails disappeared, along with the gold under the towers.

and that Reichstagflation scared the shit out of everyone. so us citizens bought lots of crap--like the official bin Laden with guys with boxcutters story line. and we bought huge houses to protect ourselves in. cuz those fuckin towers might be made out of concrete and reinforced steel and shit but man my piece of shit Toll Brothers McStucco box got a one year warr-uhn-tee.

so if they can put a man on tv saying that they put a man on the moon, then they can put a boxcutter up to a man on tv to say that the card board cutout President said that a man with a boxcutter put a BREAKING NEWS LIVE NEWS INTERRUPTING OUR PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED BOGUS NEWS STORY OF THE DAY TO BRING YOU THE NEW PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED BOGUS NEWS STORY OF THE DAY on the tv.

will Reichstagflation work again this time? or do we need hyper-Reichstagflation? or do we just need to impeach cheney?

a nuke attack on iran would work for reichstagflation.

but the terror here may not work. cuz there is a rumor that DC gets nuked. if so, well then, I'm buyin' the fuckin' calls man! the stock market would soar! one point for every dead congressman. two points for every dead lobbyist. thats a huge rally!!! Larry Cocaine Kudlow would go crazy! even Jesse Livermore would buy stocks! and he's dead!

and they all say "Remember September 11th!"

and I say "Sure. what the fuck happened?"

and they say "Well, i dunno. they didn't tell me what happened. and besides if they did they probably lied. or i forgot. or both. so honestly sir i really have no ******* clue about what happened on September 11th. except for that home equity line of credit i got and the liar's loans to supposedly get people to buy a bunch of houses so that when the bin Laden family eventually gets back to America after being escorted out of the country by the government on first class flights immediately after 9/11 (thanks Bush Administration!) then they won't have anywhere to live, cuz the cnbc idiots are saying that there's a shortage of houses, and the Realtors said they aren't making any more land... so the bin Ladens move to Afghanistan, cuz its cheap, and they, uh, have never been there before.

and i say "Man, i don't remember what happened yesterday. and when i asked about it they lied to me. then the lied again. then i forgot. so yesterday is kinda like September 11th huh?"

and they say "Yeah. exactly. something like that."

then we all say "Remember August 29th! A day that we will never remember to forget to remember!"

Other Famous 9-11 dates in history:

September 5 or so, 1901: President William McKinley is assassinated. yep, lone gunman.

September 11, 1941: Work begins on the Pentagon. or the Pentagon is finished on that date. just in time for Pearl Harbor i guess!

September 11, 1971: Work begins on the World Trade Centers in New York.

September 11, 1990: President George HW Bush calls for a New Word Order. Japan later goes on to deliver him bad sushi.

If Lady Liberty were alive today, she'd be dead.

Freedoms and civil rights in America are deteriorating faster than subprime mortgage outfits. ... and these outfits are the emperors with no clothes.

The Implod-O-Meter currently stands. or falls. ... whatever. at 143. the hedge fund implod-o-meter is at 13. no, wait, wait. this just in. the number is 14. 14 hedge fundos implodos! THE SURGE IS WORKING!!!

... no word yet on the non-implodo-meter. that's what i am waiting for. it could be the Survivor of Solvency or something. or Big Banker, where all the financial houses, such as the House of Morgan, the House of Rothschild, the House of the other Morgan (Stanley), the House of the Brothers Grim (Lehman), and the House of Blues (Bear Stearns) get in a house together, and only one survives. and becomes New Bank!

The SPP HATES you and me. aka, the North American Union, aka the New World Order. The Powers That Be and Will Always Be Unless Something Is Done By You and Me. Those guys are meeting today somewhere to discuss integration. "Integration" for those of you who don't understand New World Orwellianspeak means that Canadian citizens suffer, American citizens suffer, and Mexican citizens suffer (because they all live in the USA). and that is what they call "compromise" or "synergy." You scratch my stab wound in the back that you inflicted and I'll scratch yours.

IN Dubya Ohh! tries to start a riot during a peaceful protest.

link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=St1-WTc1kow

supposedly their cop features gave away the provocateurs.
the fat cop turd wearing the hat and bandanna is my Police State Fat Cop Turd Wearing The Hat and Bandanna of the Day.

The Amero is coming. probably. and it is the new currency for the NAU.
Why do you HATE Amero?

here is a video of an analyst on cnbc last fall talking about the amero.

link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6hiPrsc9g98

Aaron Russo died recently. He is the director of "Freedom to Fascism."
He has done a lot to reveal some of the unsavory elements in American life today. He will be missed.

right now the dollar index is at 80.64. so it is steadily hanging above 80. as long as it stays above 80 it will be fine. cash is going up in value because no one has it, everyone needs it, and no one wanted it--UNTIL NOW!!! so get some. better yet get a lot. and all those people selling off stocks or whatever they can sell off want cash. ... it's called a dollar short squeeze. it's also called the Big Boys pulling the plug.

the dollar has long-term support at 80, so it should hold. the deflationary pressures are mounting. Jim Shepherd notes that there are $300 trillion in interest rate derivatives out there in no-where land. and of course hundreds of trillions in other derivatives bets... so we may be at One Quadrillion by now. that's a lot of helicopters. no, wait. that's a hell of a lot of helicopters! If This were 1929 or 1987...

This would be a marvelous day if we were exactly replaying the pre-mini-crash period of 1987. Today would be October 5 of 1987 and the Dow would close today at (an equivalent of) 13,557.48. On the other hand, if this was 1929, it would be October 11th, 1929, and the Dow would close today at around 12,982.95. In both cases, today would be the 'last train out' before the respective slides began.

It's therefore none too comforting to realize that the Dow yesterday close was 259.51 points below where the track went in 1987 but561.15 points above the 1929 track.

Can you say "bracketed"?

from urbansurvival.com

the Fed gave us some liquidity the other day. by us i mean us fabulously wealthy global money center banks. so bin Bernanke opened the door to the fire escape, so the big boys can get out.

why??? cuz this is what happens in September when ya can't get out!

link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LD06SAf0p9A&mode=related&search=

I am calling for a dollar high of 87.

Gold is holding steady right now. Kitco has it at $665.80. so it is hovering around the $666 line. i bet that number is just a coincidence.

Gold and stocks have been moving together recently. i am predicting both to go down. at least for a few months for the next wave down.

Gold has some support at $550 and $450, and those are my downside targets.

$450 could be the low since it is where the last wave 4 was, it would equal the decline of the Dow from 2000 to 2002/2003, if taken from the 2006 gold high. it would also be close to half of the all-time 1980 high.

Gold can be seen in two ways: as entering a cyclical bear now, or as just completing a B wave sucker's rally after the 1980 high. the level of bullishness in gold is huge, and gold is being played by the average investor through GLD and such, but it has yet to make new all-time highs.

either way, a wave 2 decline or a C wave decline will take gold lower.

Cash: it's where the money is.

money market funds have had some hits recently. why? well, for one thing there isn't really any money or cash there. just the normal crap.
today's money market funds have all the downside of junk bonds with none of the upside! Sign me up today! Laughing

the only real play in funds here is treasury only money market funds. and you can put the prospectus under the paper fiat under your mattress.

On Oil and Weather.

Oil is still around 70 dollars a barrel. looks like it may have double topped.

We haven't gotten the extreme hurricane season that many have predicted. why? i dunno. that hurricane Dean was supposed to be big and bad and hit Texas and the area directly involved in the NASCO corridor real hard. and i reported my warnings that it might. i also posted about it here... i had my tinfoil hat on, plus my tinfoil hard hat, plus my tinfoil hard hat/umbrella. fortunately, Dean didn't hit Texas hard. perhaps i stopped it. Very Happy

Summer is hot again. as it usually is. but it is dry where i am. my Global Warming wave B is still in effect. up next--Kondratieff Winter.

I have been going on about the official end of global warming and this is the sucker's rally of the great global warming phenomenon. I would hypothesize that a debt based global fiat monetary system is inherently linked to hotter temperatures. for one, they have to tear down all those trees to get all that fiat paper, or at least tear down all those trees to get all that crappy newspapers and investo-rags like WSJ and IBD to get people to say that they printed all that fiat paper money. but, in actuality they didn't. they produced credit, not fiat paper. computer blips, not flammable pieces of the vastly underrated member of the Paper-Rock-Scissors Trio. To the layman, paper probably can't beat anything. scissors cut it like a hot knife thru butter, or uh, a Federal Reserve Note. and the rock is so big! it seems like it is almost the size of a fist. (and it usually is!) And the rock thoroughly crushes the cheap made in China scissors (i think that Chinese scissors are especially susceptible to rocks, but that just could be my conspiratorial investment mind talking). and the average guy, joe blow, joe investor, the layman, the lead singer for The Sheeple, whatever thinks that paper can't beat anything. especially the big hard rock.

... but sometimes things like that happens. when you least expect it, paper beats the rock. paper is intrinsically worthless of course. except when you burn it, and it becomes no more, then it is valuable. so the only valuable paper is burned paper to provide heat and a fiery substance. which is something Yogi Berra might say, or George Orwell might write. The only good paper is dead, burned, decomposing, vanishing paper...

The rock on the other hand is big and huge and valuable. whereas paper is the pessimists and pyromaniac's bet, the rock is full of optimism and bullish psychology. Throwing down the paper hand sign says, i'm worried I need to get out of my positions, lie there and do nothing and go flat, i can't win, i must submit to the awesome cunning cutting power of the indefensible object of the Invisible Hidden Hand-- the scissors.

The rock, on the other hand (or fist) is awesomely optimistic. It is saying I will crush that goddamned no good Commie China scissors. I will destroy it. I will slaughter it. I will "shatter the scissors into a thousand pieces and scatter the remnants to the wind." The rock is the JFK of the Paper Rock Scissors Axis of Fun.

but paper beats rock. it really does. it covers it up. it says the rock is too optimistic and should be leveled. plus the scissors have left the building... and they will not come to the defense of the rock. The game of Paper Rock Scissors is an age old game. It is the game of duality (Paper vs. Rock) with a referee or PPT thrown in (the scissors).

The whole game is about betting whether or not the scissors will swoop in and win the game. playing paper is betting that it won't. it is essentially a n Austrian-libertarian free market bet. The rock bet is the sucker's bet as well as the foolishly optimistic bet. it is the bet of brawn over brains. it is betting that the scissors are there to throw the game in its favor.

Now for the moral of the story. I bet even Vangel can see this coming... Laughing

The rock represents those that bet on gold and silver and commodities, and companies traded on exchanges. if that person has played his hand one too many times he is betting that the scissors or the PPT steps in. and often times it does. but sometimes it doesn't. especially when it can't do anything to permanently help the situation. especially when the guy has thrown the rock 10 times in a row. or 25 years in a row. or all season--ever since the last kondratieff winter. playing the rock over and over and over again is essentially taking an eternal short position against paper.

but paper is still waiting patiently... it's time is soon coming. and when the big bad rock leasts expects it. and also when Chinese scissors get recalled by the big bad Chinese government on the behest of our not so bad but ever so bigger government. sometimes the Smoots and the Hawleys play the game of Paper-Rock-Scissors. see, the scissors are the interference bet, usually in the form of the PPT or a crooked home ref, but sometimes a commie godless government can also be the scissors. but enough about the American government, how about the Chinese government as well? Laughing

Paper is cash, fiat paper, Federal Reserve Notes, T-bills... and sometimes you need to play it--just in case. because sometimes the rock (commodities, metals futures, oil, McMansions, SUV's, flat screen TVs) loses, fails to cover his shorts... and paper wins.

Treasuries are the way to go here. because rocks can't win forever. Hedge Funds managers have rocks for brains and they will lose...

Every hand has its time. and paper's time is now on the clock. margin calls are coming. and the rocksters HATE margin calls! Evil or Very Mad

ON the K cycle Winter:

the K cycle winter cleanses the debts from the system (and gosh darn it do we have debts!), and sets the table for the next up swing. it's like a Natural Law. its called the long-term economic cycle or the Kondratieff cycle but it also appears to be the debt cycle.

USA entering the winter phase. Japan entered in 1989 and China is right behind us. Japan is ahead of us. i heard they are ahead of us by about 10 years. so they peaked in 1989, and we peaked in 1999-2000. and what has followed for both countries have been bear market rallies, or false springs. but they entered it first. their Nikkei retraced to 50% of its top level in 1989, and has started back down. If Yogi Berra were alive today he would say that they get older earlier over there.

China is behind us. they are eating up that Globalism crap over there for breakfast, lunch, and dinner. no joke, i saw a CNBC special about China about a month or two ago, and they just put in a drive thru at McDonald's. and the Chinese didn't know what to do. they drove thru it, got their food, parked and went inside to eat. guess they have no concept of eat crap really really fast over there. and the corporate guy training the McDonald's workers was translating for them. and he gave the devil's horn sign. he says that means "I'm lovin' it!" and all the chinese workers did the sign.

ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. now i get it.

lots of texas longhorns fans in China! Laughing Laughing Laughing

the olympics are in china next year (only in america!). so they could get an economic slowdown after that. after the money supply growth stops. and their stocks could factor that in soon...

back to global warming debate, here is an article about the Global Warming Hoax:

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The Year the Global Warming Hoax Died
By Alan Caruba on Sep 02, 07

When did the global warming hoax die? Historians are likely to pinpoint 2007. It will take another decade to insure it cannot be revived, but the avalanche of scientific studies and the cumulative impact of scientists who have publicly joined those who debunked the lies on which it has been based will be noted as the tipping point.

It took some forty years to unmask the Piltdown Man hoax that began in 1912 alleging that the skull of an ancient ancestor of man had been found in England. Any number of British anthropologists unwittingly contributed to the hoax by confirming the authenticity of the skull until it was found that the jaw of an orangutan had been cunningly attached. The unmasking of “global warming” has taken less than half that time.

The hoax has mainly been a creation of the United Nations Environmental Program and took off in earnest with the 1992 Earth Summit. It culminated in 1997 with the Kyoto Climate Control Protocol, an agreement to reduce the generation of carbon dioxide, a “greenhouse” gas (CO2) said to be the cause of an accelerated warming of the earth. By 2005, 140 nations had ratified the pact, agreeing to reduce CO2 emissions. Notably exempt from the pact were nations such as China and India. Few, if any, nations have ever met the limits that require reductions in CO2 production, attributed to the use of so-called “fossil fuels” such as oil, natural gas, and coal.

The United States refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol and, at one point, the U.S. Senate unanimously passed a resolution rejecting it. This has not kept the U.S. from spending billions on so-called “climate research” intended to address climate change with the aim of reducing or capturing CO2 emissions. Had that money been devoted to maintenance of the nation’s infrastructure, tragic events such as the collapse of the Minnesota bridge over the Mississippi might have been averted.

In August, it was revealed that NASA scientists had corrected an error that resulted in 1934 replacing 1998 as the warmest year on record in the U.S. Repeatedly the data put forth to justify the global warming hoax has been debunked.

As Dr. David Wojick recently noted, “The real significance is that such a small correction can make such a big difference. The reason is that the much touted warming of the last three decades is merely a return to earlier warm times, after an equally long period of cooling…There is no way this pattern constitutes a warming trend…In short, there is no evidence for human-induced global warming in the U.S. temperature record.”

“Anthropogenic (man-made) global warming bites the dust,” declared astronomer Dr. Ian Wilson after reviewing a new study that has been accepted for publication in the Journal of Geophysical Research authored by a Brookhaven National Lab scientist Stephen Schwartz. A former Harvard physicist, Dr. Lubos Motl, said the new study has reduced global warming fear-mongers to “playing the children’s game to scare each other.”


Typical Modern Temperature Measuring Station


__________________________________________________ ________

moving right along...

Houses aren't going anywhere.
some Realtor chick got robbed in my town the other day. it was at an open house. makes sense. i guess the robber knew that, uh, the only person there would be the Realtor.

and i guess no one found out about it until the Mexican gang dude that steals copper from vacant houses came by to, uh, steal copper from vacant houses. and so he noticed the robbed Realtor chick. and gave her some cash. cuz the Realtor is even more broke after first Mexican gang dude (i am assuming) stole her money. so that makes her, umm, broker. (and where is the emoticon that is a laugh trying to be stifled with no success? because that emoticon goes here.)

so this Realtor chick is poor cuz she's legal, and got papers, but the illegal mexican gang member/metals entrepeneur got fiat baby!

... the Realtor subsequently gave the mexican gang member/metals entrepeneur a no down easy monthly payment mortgage. cuz he and his 35 amigos are good for it man!

Retail stocks should follow home stocks now. which is down. Home Depot sold off some assets. at a lower price than it wanted.

Here are wageslave's observations of how things are going:

Something is afoot.
Sales are up slightly at the
mall. But the corporate
response is to slash hours
for employees. They are
trying to hang onto their cash.

silver isn't going up. ted butler has great bullish fundamental analysis on it. and it didn't go up. instead it went down. ... saw a post on here a few days ago that there are really a couple billion more ounces of silver than thought. that is bearish. and robert kiyosaki is bullish. which makes me bearish. Kiyosaki also likes commercial real estate. so the residential real estate market is dead. the mortgage bonds market is frozen and the commercial paper market is illiquid. seems that there is one bozo in Hawaiian shirts that can't connect the dots.

link: http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/richricher/42433

RichDad PoorDad should change his name to BullMarketGenius BearMarketDoofus.

da bear

Fahrenheit 1929: The Temperature at which liquidity burns.

09-09-07, 12:25 PM
Gold is holding steady right now. Kitco has it at $665.80. so it is hovering around the $666 line. i bet that number is just a coincidence.
Gold and stocks have been moving together recently. i am predicting both to go down. at least for a few months for the next wave down.
Gold has some support at $550 and $450, and those are my downside targets.9-7-07
Stocks down 249 pts.
Gold hits over 700.

Surprised me, too.

09-11-07, 04:58 AM
Da Bear -


But I sorely miss the "wild, woolly, drooling, foul breathed, hoary fanged" original BEAR, who spoke in such hallucinatory grunts of revelation as to bring the spirit of Hunter S. Thompson back to us in our darkest hour of misery and need.

Screw the DOW, FTSI, MIB, DAX, KOSPI, ALL ORDINARIES, Gold, the CPI, Mother Hubbard, and freaking HOME ECONOMICS - we need our monthly fix of "DA OLD BEAR"!!!

We don't want no efficient summation of all the actionable news that's fit to print for executive snots - We want the WILD, HUNGRY, DROOLING, RAMPAGING BEAR!

Aaarrright!!! ??

We NEED BEAR CLASSIC - not post-modern bear!

da bear
09-12-07, 03:08 PM
Da Bear -


But I sorely miss the "wild, woolly, drooling, foul breathed, hoary fanged" original BEAR, who spoke in such hallucinatory grunts of revelation as to bring the spirit of Hunter S. Thompson back to us in our darkest hour of misery and need.

Screw the DOW, FTSI, MIB, DAX, KOSPI, ALL ORDINARIES, Gold, the CPI, Mother Hubbard, and freaking HOME ECONOMICS - we need our monthly fix of "DA OLD BEAR"!!!

We don't want no efficient summation of all the actionable news that's fit to print for executive snots - We want the WILD, HUNGRY, DROOLING, RAMPAGING BEAR!

Aaarrright!!! ??

We NEED BEAR CLASSIC - not post-modern bear!

the rampaging bear will be back. sometimes i have to tone it down for some of the followers. they can't handle the truth.

but seriously did anyone see Larry Delano Kudlow calling for a fifty basis point cut friday? What happened to the "free market???" did the price of Colombia's Finest just go up Larry???

da bear

Fahrenheit 1929: The Temperature at which liquidity burns.
Cash: It's where the money is.

09-12-07, 03:55 PM
Bear -

<< did anyone see Larry Delano Kudlow calling for a fifty basis point cut friday? >>

What scares the bejeebers out of me is that Flow5 may well end up being right, and this Fed suprises everyone and does not give the markets anything near what they want to see in cuts in the next 3-6 months.

"Ber-banke" is from the ivy covered halls of academia - this guy could interpret the "need to defend the dollar" and the "need to cement his reputation as tough and austere" entirely differently than anyone expects.

That would most decidedly be "Ouch!" time.