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With Iran weighing in on the Israel/Lebanon war (and war it is), I wonder if we can expect the decline to continue tomorrow?
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Re: Will the decline continue tomorrow?
from richard russell yesterday, july 12
From an e-mail received from a subscriber early this morning -- Russell
I trade oil on the floor of the NYMEX.
Beginning June 22nd, there has been large scale buying of oil in a very
conspicuous manner through June 30. Monday the 26th was noteworthy as one
buyer bought as many contracts as anyone was prepared to offer in front of a
drive to take out the previous week's highs.
Someone has placed an enormous bet on an upward drive in prices over the
next few months.
I've only seen it a few times and each such drive has preceded a $10 - $14
move.
The more sophisticated research around the street has apparently assigned a
70% probability of $90 oil. Lord knows where gasoline will be trading.
Lets see what the summer brings.
Fade this at your peril, me thinks!
On the second last Thursday of June, some big, conspicuous, constant buying
began in the Oil pit. A steady stream of bids for 500 contracts began coming
in all afternoon. The following day, the same, with one broker bidding for
3,000 contracts at a clip. (This is an exceptionally large order in the Oil
market. On the close, the same broker bought 2,000 more contracts.
The following Monday, the market opened down 25 cents. The same broker bid
for and bought 2,000 25 points lower, then bid for another 3,000. 5 minutes
later he bid 20 cents higher for 5,000 contracts. Some 15 minutes later he
bid for another 5,000 contracts at Fridays high. That sent the market
running.
Each day the following week there was conspicuous steady buying of 1,000's
of contracts through June 30.
On yesterdays sell off to 72.90, there was enormous buying around the 7300 -
73.20 area.
best,
OZ in NYC
aren't you a little curious about who that buyer was, and what that buyer knew?
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Re: Will the decline continue MONDAY?
george friedman of stratfor says a variety of sources point to sun-mon as a likely time for israel to invade lebanon, making a quick strike to the litani river and then up in the bekaa valley and southern beirut suburbs, with the plan being a 4-5 week campaign to destroy hezbollah infrastructure, followed by withdrawal. he says a key immediate issue is the evacuation of westerners who are ripe to become hezbollah hostages. u.s. interest is that hezbollah recently may have been jacked up by iran to resume its former global terrorist activities. hezbollah's recent actions vis a vis israel were likely motivated by the palestinian power vacuum and hezbollah's unwillingness to cede leadership to hamas.
the 40 day ema did not cross the 200 day of the s&p, so we didn't meet THAT crash criterion.
still, broader armed conflict in the middle east and likely still higher oil prices might be a good excuse for the market to tank, as it's been waiting to do for some time.Comment
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Re: Will the decline continue MONDAY?
yeah, this certainly does feel like iran trying to send a signal to the US -- layoff on our nuclear program, or this is what we're going to do.Comment
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