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Polish_Silver
02-12-11, 09:17 AM
I will award 1 oz of private mint silver to the most accurate estimator of the time
when the US Gross Debt to GDP ratio reaches 100%.
As of Feb 12, 2011, the ratio is 97.03% (http://www.usdebtclock.org/ (http://www.usdebtclock.org/))
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Trivia:
According to Rogoff, the “point of no return” is when Debt/GDP reaches 90%.
<o:p>http://www.businessinsider.com/kenneth-rogoff-carmen-reinhart-sovereign-debt-2010-8</o:p>

Rules:
-1) Post your entry on this thread, and specify the time down to the second to avoid ties. (please use eastern standard time)
0) Entries will be taken during February 2011. As of march 1<SUP>st</SUP>, no new entries will be allowed.
1) Decision of the judge (me) is final.
2) Most accurate guess will be the winner, weather it is late or early.
3) Data will be taken from “http://www.usdebtclock.org/”.
5) If I am not watching when the Gross Debt to GDP ratio crosses 100%, I will extrapolate from the data I do have.
(If someone has the ability to “film” (continuously record) the numbers, that would be greatly appreciated.)

metalman
02-12-11, 01:19 PM
guess i don't understand the debt clock. the latest data for Federal Government Debt: Total Public Debt was sep 2010 = $13.56 trillion.

the debt grew an average of 2.07%/mo since 1960 and 3.34%/mo since q4 2007.

for the debt to only be $14.14 billion as the debt clock reads now the debt grew at < 1%/mo since sep 2010. very unlikely!

assuming 3.34%/mo. rate continued from sep 2010, the debt goes like this... in millions...

<style>table { }td { padding-top: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-left: 1px; color: windowtext; font-size: 10pt; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; vertical-align: bottom; border: medium none; white-space: nowrap; }.xl19 { }.xl20 { }</style> <table style="border-collapse: collapse;" width="248" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <col style="" span="2" width="124"> <tbody><tr height="12"> <td class="xl19" align="right" width="124" height="12">2010-09-30</td> <td class="xl20" align="right" width="124">$13,561,622</td> </tr> <tr height="12"> <td class="xl19" align="right" height="12">2010-10-30</td> <td class="xl20" align="right">$14,014,866</td> </tr> <tr height="12"> <td class="xl19" align="right" height="12">2010-11-30</td> <td class="xl20" align="right">$14,483,257</td> </tr> <tr height="12"> <td class="xl19" align="right" height="12">2010-12-30</td> <td class="xl20" align="right">$14,967,302</td> </tr> <tr height="12"> <td class="xl19" align="right" height="12">2011-01-30</td> <td class="xl20" align="right">$15,467,525</td> </tr> <tr height="12"> <td class="xl19" align="right" height="12">2011-02-28</td> <td class="xl20" align="right">$15,984,466</td> </tr> <tr height="12"> <td class="xl19" align="right" height="12">2011-03-28</td> <td class="xl20" align="right">$16,518,684</td> </tr> <tr height="12"> <td class="xl19" align="right" height="12">2011-04-28</td> <td class="xl20" align="right">$17,070,755</td> </tr> <tr height="12"> <td class="xl19" align="right" height="12">2011-05-28</td> <td class="xl20" align="right">$17,641,278</td> </tr> <tr height="12"> <td class="xl19" align="right" height="12">2011-06-28</td> <td class="xl20" align="right">$18,230,867</td> </tr> <tr height="12"> <td class="xl19" align="right" height="12">2011-07-28</td> <td class="xl20" align="right">$18,840,162</td> </tr> </tbody></table> <style>table { }td { padding-top: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-left: 1px; color: windowtext; font-size: 10pt; font-weight: 400; font-style: normal; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; vertical-align: bottom; border: medium none; white-space: nowrap; }.xl19 { font-family: Courier; }</style>
if gdp grew @ 2-3% to $15.16 - $15.32 trillion in q1 2011 from $14.87 trillion in q4 2010 then the debt >100% some day back in jan.

c1ue
02-12-11, 01:46 PM
I wonder if the debt clock is a timer. If so, you can look at the code and get the precise time.

metalman
02-12-11, 02:52 PM
I wonder if the debt clock is a timer. If so, you can look at the code and get the precise time.

yeh... guessing the code just increments by a fixed $2.5 million per minute or $41,667 per second like it says on the website. they need to reset the number & make the increment higher to reflect the actual monthly rate... maybe use a rolling average of the past 12 months...

Polish_Silver
02-12-11, 10:26 PM
The debt ratio jumped by 1% overnight about a month ago when GDP was revised downwards.
I don't know what is causing the discrepancies you discuss. There are slightly different ways of
measuring the debt. So stop arguing and take a position!

Also, the deficit has quadrupled since the financial crisis (400 billion to 1.5 trillion) so the Debt/gdp ratio is going up about 4X as fast
as it used to. (advancing about 6%/year)

metalman
02-13-11, 12:06 PM
The debt ratio jumped by 1% overnight about a month ago when GDP was revised downwards.
I don't know what is causing the discrepancies you discuss. There are slightly different ways of
measuring the debt. So stop arguing and take a position!

Also, the deficit has quadrupled since the financial crisis (400 billion to 1.5 trillion) so the Debt/gdp ratio is going up about 4X as fast
as it used to. (advancing about 6%/year)

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?&chart_type=bar&graph_id=0&category_id=&&width=630&height=378&bgcolor=%23B3CDE7&graph_bgcolor=%23FFFFFF&txtcolor=%23000000&ts=8&preserve_ratio=true&fo=ve&id=GFDEBTN&transformation=lin&scale=Left&range=Max&cosd=1966-03-31&coed=2010-09-30&line_color=%230000FF&link_values=&mark_type=&mw=&line_style=&lw=&vintage_date=2011-02-13&revision_date=2011-02-13&mma=0&nd=&ost=&oet=&fml=a&fq=Mar%20Jun%20Sep%20Dec%2C%20End%20of%20Month&fam=avg&fgst=lin

& are we talking gdp or 'real' gdp...

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?&chart_type=line&graph_id=0&category_id=&recession_bars=On&width=630&height=378&bgcolor=%23B3CDE7&graph_bgcolor=%23FFFFFF&txtcolor=%23000000&ts=8&preserve_ratio=true&fo=ve&id=GDP,GDPC1&transformation=lin,lin&scale=Left,Left&range=Max,Max&cosd=1947-01-01,1947-01-01&coed=2010-10-01,2010-10-01&line_color=%230000FF,%23FF0000&link_values=,&mark_type=NONE,NONE&mw=4,4&line_style=Solid,Solid&lw=1,1&vintage_date=2011-02-13,2011-02-13&revision_date=2011-02-13,2011-02-13&mma=0,0&nd=,&ost=,&oet=,&fml=a,a&fq=Quarterly,Quarterly&fam=avg,avg&fgst=lin,lin

where 'real' = phony gov't gdp price deflator vs phony cpi...

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?&chart_type=line&graph_id=0&category_id=&recession_bars=On&width=630&height=378&bgcolor=%23B3CDE7&graph_bgcolor=%23FFFFFF&txtcolor=%23000000&ts=8&preserve_ratio=true&fo=ve&id=GDPDEF,CPIAUCSL,PPIFGS&transformation=lin,lin,lin&scale=Left,Left,Left&range=Max,Max,Max&cosd=1947-01-01,1947-01-01,1947-04-01&coed=2010-10-01,2010-12-01,2010-12-01&line_color=%230000FF,%23FF0000,%23006600&link_values=,,&mark_type=NONE,NONE,NONE&mw=4,4,4&line_style=Solid,Solid,Solid&lw=1,1,1&vintage_date=2011-02-13,2011-02-13,2011-02-13&revision_date=2011-02-13,2011-02-13,2011-02-13&mma=0,0,0&nd=,,&ost=,,&oet=,,&fml=a,a,a&fq=Quarterly,Monthly,Monthly&fam=avg,avg,avg&fgst=lin,lin,lin

i'll assume you mean plain old reported gdp not the fake 'real' gdp... & the debt clock vs the actual level of public debt...

i'll say reported gdp grew @ 2-3% to $15.16 - $15.32 trillion in q1 2011 from $14.87 trillion in q4 2010

my guess is... debt clock hits 100% of gdp at 4:00pm et march 3.

metalman
02-13-11, 04:12 PM
my guess is... debt clock hits 100% of gdp at 4:00pm et march 3.

can i change my mind... once? er... 8pm et mar 5. not that it matters... the debt clock changes its rate of change... & the gdp # is a guess... so this is one of those random guess contests like how many coins are in the jar...

http://kraftykatsblog.files.wordpress.com/2010/05/100_9974.jpg