The Fat Lady Sings

[FRED]

Well, it's that time.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

I still rather much believe if someone is saying, "This is it!" then probably, this ain't it.

[FRED]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

I still rather much believe if someone is saying, "This is it!" then probably, this ain't it.

Depends on who's saying it. Don't forget where you are.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

Depends on who's saying it. Don't forget where you are.

It sticks in my mind, "don't look to good, nor talk to wise." What Kipling didn't say is that," if you violate my advice, it may come back and bite you on your ass."

[FRED]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

It sticks in my mind, "don't look to good, nor talk to wise." What Kipling didn't say is that," if you violate my advice, it may come back and bite you on your ass."

Look at the record. Consider the source.

The courage of a conviction has its risks. Lack of courage has greater.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

Look at the record. Consider the source.

The courage of a conviction has its risks. Lack of courage has greater.

Can't argue with the record; nevertheless, it is most difficult to pick a point in the market and say, "Okay, Sapphire, sing."

Personally for many reasons I hope you are absolutely, unequivocally on the money.

[metalman]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

Can't argue with the record; nevertheless, it is most difficult to pick a point in the market and say, "Okay, Sapphire, sing."

Personally for many reasons I hope you are absolutely, unequivocally on the money.

lessee... march 2000 stocks down, april it's a bear, aug 2001 gold up, july 2007 stocks down... and that's it. i dunno. seems to me that takes discipline. also, i read all this shit here about these other guys, like mish. didn't you listen to the mish/ej 'debate'? did you get the idea mish has any idea what he's talking about? does he talk to the guys who actually run the cdo funds? to the guys who work in the banking system like mayer? to guys on the receiving end of the lbo bubble like challenger? and so on? i'm trying to imagine mish getting an interview with any of them. who are his sources?

love ya jim but i think you're missing the point. remember were ej comes from. he knows these guys, talks to them. but he's on our side. i just wish it all didn't mean watching my gold and silver get pummeled before the reflate. but it's looking that way.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

lessee... march 2000 stocks down, april it's a bear, aug 2001 gold up, july 2007 stocks down... and that's it. i dunno. seems to me that takes discipline. also, i read all this shit here about these other guys, like mish. didn't you listen to the mish/ej 'debate'? did you get the idea mish has any idea what he's talking about? does he talk to the guys who actually run the cdo funds? to the guys who work in the banking system like mayer? to guys on the receiving end of the lbo bubble like challenger? and so on? i'm trying to imagine mish getting an interview with any of them. who are his sources?

love ya jim but i think you're missing the point. remember were ej comes from. he knows these guys, talks to them. but he's on our side. i just wish it all didn't mean watching my gold and silver get pummeled before the reflate. but it's looking that way.

You haven't made me feel defensive, I don't think, and I have no disrespect in me for EJ, but he puts his britches on like everyone else--one leg at a time, and as such (unless he is a closet-ninja), no one is immune to being wrong. It is great to step up, make a statement, take a real swing at the ball, but nevertheless, it takes time to see if what anyone says about the future at a given moment proves to be prescient or not. I hope EJ is prescient, or rather has gathered enough insight to seem prescient.

[Guest]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

Metalman - In case you didn't notice - gold and silver have hardly budged while everything else plunges. Looks like they are getting set to decouple. Anyone thinking they are going to time a great entry point into that area is dinking around.

I would not be in the slightest bit surprised if they do decouple now or soon.

I find Mish to be a bore, although I can't say exactly why. He seems completely hypnotized by the housing and credit bubble and only bangs on a few piano keys all the time. Also he uses the word "Missive" which drives me bonkers.

As far as selling everything in this correction, I disagree. If you anticipated this and built very conservatively allocated portfolio percentages for the medium term, in one or two sectors with the strongest prospects, you are just cruising through this correction without sweating it too much.

Holding through this stuff tests conviction, and "builds investing character", which is not an insignificant habit for collecting the really big payola from long term investing.

When the markets perk up again as the all global CB's reflate in unison, everyone will be chasing (once again) right back into these sectors with yet more churning of their assets.

Euro Pacific clients largely pick the large long term themes, allocate sensibly, and sit tight. That's an investing principle that seems lost on a large portion of this community.

[metalman]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

You haven't made me feel defensive, I don't think, and I have no disrespect in me for EJ, but he puts his britches on like everyone else--one leg at a time, and as such (unless he is a closet-ninja), no one is immune to being wrong. It is great to step up, make a statement, take a real swing at the ball, but nevertheless, it takes time to see if what anyone says about the future at a given moment proves to be prescient or not. I hope EJ is prescient, or rather has gathered enough insight to seem prescient.

seem prescient...

maybe i don't hang out here enough to get the impact of being too familiar with what he's said. just go to the top of the main page... oh, here...

http://foohack.com/2007/08/when-will...these-pundits/

[Jeff]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

Um, Eric, wasn't it March 2000, rather than March 2001 when iTulip last made a prediction?

[jimmygu3]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

Don't say we didn't warn you.

I won't say you didn't warn me. I'll just say you didn't tell me where to put my money. I believe that stocks are due for a (continuing) crash. I have seen the proverbial iTulip light. I just don't know where the safest places to have my savings are for the time being.

Are we perhaps seeing PMs rising (decoupling) due to shorts covering, and/or are burned investors seeking shelter there? Or are PMs headed down, too? Will the Fed try to inflate our way out of this (making cash a less attractive place to be and pushing up nominal asset prices)? What about inflation-indexed T-bills? Seems like a good shelter to me, even with the rigged CPI.

Answers? Guidance? EJ? Fred?

THANKS!

Jimmy

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

I won't say you didn't warn me. I'll just say you didn't tell me where to put my money. I believe that stocks are due for a (continuing) crash. I have seen the proverbial iTulip light. I just don't know where the safest places to have my savings are for the time being.

Are we perhaps seeing PMs rising (decoupling) due to shorts covering, and/or are burned investors seeking shelter there? Or are PMs headed down, too? Will the Fed try to inflate our way out of this (making cash a less attractive place to be and pushing up nominal asset prices)? What about inflation-indexed T-bills? Seems like a good shelter to me, even with the rigged CPI.

Answers? Guidance? EJ? Fred?

THANKS!

Jimmy

You are asking million-bonar questions, and I imagine a lot of individuals are reluctant to offer you advice about what to do with YOUR money, maybe I'm wrong, and they will.

If YOU think stocks are going to "crash," it seems to me if I thought that, I'd rather be in CASH. It took me a long time to grasp Ka-Poom (if I have in fact), but based on that, cash could be good. If one cannot always be invested in what appears to be going up, then a worthy goal is to be in what doesn't appear to be going down.

Whatever is to play out from the past few days of excitement I think will take longer than next week to finally unfold.

I wish I could tell you exactly what YOU should do, but I can't.

I hold no commodities now, 5% gold, silver, and mining stocks, 69% cash, about 13% short equity indices, ~10% yen, and 2% long US$ index, and I have been in these all for some weeks at least. Added to shorts, Tuesday before big run-up Wed.

Good luck.

[Tet]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

I won't say you didn't warn me. I'll just say you didn't tell me where to put my money. I believe that stocks are due for a (continuing) crash. I have seen the proverbial iTulip light. I just don't know where the safest places to have my savings are for the time being.

Are we perhaps seeing PMs rising (decoupling) due to shorts covering, and/or are burned investors seeking shelter there? Or are PMs headed down, too? Will the Fed try to inflate our way out of this (making cash a less attractive place to be and pushing up nominal asset prices)? What about inflation-indexed T-bills? Seems like a good shelter to me, even with the rigged CPI.

Answers? Guidance? EJ? Fred?

THANKS!

Jimmy

Jimmy,
Obviously the only thing to do would be to send me your money and I'll make you richer than Howard Hughes a week from next Thursday, I guarantee it and you won't find a better guarantee anywhere else. PM me and we'll work out the details. Thanks.

[bill]

Re: The Fat Lady Sings

I won't say you didn't warn me. I'll just say you didn't tell me where to put my money. I believe that stocks are due for a (continuing) crash. I have seen the proverbial iTulip light. I just don't know where the safest places to have my savings are for the time being.

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...=9616#poststop

My last purchase was 123.10 ,,,wait for the bounce to get in.