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EJ
08-03-07, 05:06 PM
http://www.itulip.com/images/escape.jpgWe hope our market warnings July 25 "Before the Stroke of Midnight" and in our Newsletter Monday were not too subtle, and everyone was ready in their own way for this correction.
Before the Stroke of Midnight (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=12708#post12708)
July 25, 2007 (iTulip)

Investors await their fate, again

In our view, Thurow's warning is more relevant today than 20 years ago, and Hormats brings it up to date and into focus.

What does it mean? Given the extremes of imbalance that have developed since 1987, we'll state the risks simply: the market event we are due, when it occurs, will make the October 1987 crash seem benign by comparison.
In our Newsletter (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1702), Monday July 30, 2007 we referred readers to that warning first, noting additionally: "The last time we made a similar call was back in March 2000."

For long time readers of iTulip, that was back here...
Janszen Crying Wolf? Not So Fast. (http://www.bankrate.com/aolcan/news/investing/20000321l.asp)
March 21, 2000 (BankRate.com)

I have no quarrel with anyone who is in this market or who encourages playing the market. But I do take issue with those who fail to mention the risks. This leads many to put retirement money into the market, or take out a second mortgage on the house to buy stocks, or borrow money against stocks to buy property. My message is for them.
We hope two crash calls in seven years is not too many.

We received several emails today along the following lines:

If only everybody read your website...

I re-positioned my investments a couple of weeks ago in light of the market turmoil (rise in volatility, liquidity drying up) and your top call helps reaffirm my thoughts on this. Your website has been an unbelievably invaluable resource helping to guide me through this very challenging marketplace!

Keep up the good work!!

WayneOur man Jim Cramer (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1706) completely freaks out at Ben Bernanke on national TV.


<object height="350" width="425">

<embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/Pd5zAbDKZEg" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" height="350" width="425"></object>


Our opinion isn't that the Fed is an inherently bad institution any more than is the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the People's Bank of China, or any other central bank.

The principle here is that the concept of free and efficient markets needs apply as evenly to businesses that fail because of, for example, offshoring as to business that make losing financial bets. Even the Japanese, famous for using public funds to support corrupt banks that made uneconomic loans to favored bank clients, allowed their second largest financial firm to go under in the early 1990s after their credit bubble popped. The head of the Japanese Ministry of Finance put it well when asked why the firm was allowed to fail: "Easy come, easy go."

Of course, the Fed will need to step in at some point. We don't want this...


http://www.itulip.com/images/japanzero.jpg
(http://www.itulip.com/images/japanzero.jpg)

... followed by this...


http://www.itulip.com/images/japandeflation.jpg



See also:
Goldman's "Ready." Are you? (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1506)
The Con Before the Storm (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1399)
Turkeys fall back to earth: It started with real estate (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1421)
Sell Everything (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1272)
Bulls Rush Back In Where Angels Fear to Tread (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1316)

iTulip Select: (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1032) The Investment Thesis for the Next Cycle™
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metalman
08-03-07, 06:30 PM
never pays to bet against the tulip!

Uncle Jack
08-03-07, 07:47 PM
If you haven't already planned on doing so, how about an update on the allocation models?

thanks,
jack

jk
08-03-07, 08:31 PM
it's not a crash yet. it's not yet even a 10% correction for the general market. wait.

FRED
08-03-07, 10:40 PM
it's not a crash yet. it's not yet even a 10% correction for the general market. wait.

Ah, everyone's an expert.

EJ
08-03-07, 11:43 PM
If you haven't already planned on doing so, how about an update on the allocation models?

thanks,
jack
I mean, see what turns up later today!

jimmygu3
08-04-07, 11:23 AM
EJ,

Is this "Ka"? Where do you think the safest place to be during this crash is... cash? Will the Fed be able to lower rates and still maintain steady sales of Treasuries to foreign investors? Thanks for all your great insight.

Jimmy

zoog
08-04-07, 11:26 AM
Ah, everyone's an expert.

Especially all of us.;)

EJ and Fred seem pretty confident this is "it", and you're probably right, given your track record. But I'm going with jk.

Jim Nickerson
08-04-07, 11:38 AM
Especially all of us.;)

EJ and Fred seem pretty confident this is "it", and you're probably right, given your track record. But I'm going with jk.

See
Ah, nothing like payday. Life is good! Cheers to you that know simple arithmetic, just don't get too greedy. Regards. -Sapiens

Sapiens suggest he undoubtedly knows what's happening, perhaps he will share his profound knowledge.

c1ue
08-04-07, 02:08 PM
My vote goes to JK.

Although there is pain, the pain is nowhere near enough yet.

I firmly believe we must experience enough pain to imprint a new generational series of people on the follies of credit expansion.

The last inoculated set have pretty much all kicked the bucket, only we few curmudgeons congregated on iTulip have been willing to explore the possibility of GDII (Great Depression II).

However even our exploration has been primarily intellectual.

To steal from some Asian philosophies (and sci-fi), sometimes you need 'body learning' to truly grasp a concept.

Body learning in one of my old dojos consisted of getting whacked repeatedly without comment until you figured out that certain modes of operation were simply not practical and never would be.

DemonD
08-04-07, 07:48 PM
The last inoculated set have pretty much all kicked the bucket, only we few curmudgeons congregated on iTulip have been willing to explore the possibility of GDII (Great Depression II).


"we few curmudgeons?"

I guess the legions of bearish websites out there (for a sample check the "friends of itulip" on the main page) don't count. The millions of gold buyers don't count, the millions of ron paul lovers don't count, etc etc.

I'm not saying a GDII can't happen, but there are many factors against it despite the credit contraction. Here are some factors externally that contributed to GDII:

Horrendous economy in Germany after WWII (remember US GD was in the wake of a global GD where there was a lot of misery in germany)
Isolationism (which helped at first prevent GD but eventually lack of trade led to inflexibility of markets)
Dust bowl/weather effect

And here are some things now that are inverse to back then:
Much better and smarter growth in developing nations
Technology keeps everyone informed/connected
No Weimar hyperinflation of a top 5 country (and no Nazi party to contend with or make money with)
Much more efficiency in markets
Much easier to reflate currency/prevent deflation
Much easier to move to another city/state/country
Way better agritech to keep people fed


etc etc

Will there be pain? I'm sure there will be. You can look at the Nikkei from 1990 till now - still off about 50%. But by the same token, no one in Japan starved to death because their stock market tanked. No one starved in 1987 either.

Also I don't think that the itulip thesis supports a true "depression." It's disinflation followed by reinflation, and a changing of how the world currency markets operate. This means instability, not a president on a campaign trail saying "a chicken in every pot."

Warning is heeded however. I did sell a large position of stock back in february or march that has been collecting 5.05% apr interest at HSBC online. Will see about liquidating more positions as the weeks go on, although I did actually buy a stock as I mentioned in another post somewhere back (MO @ 65..11/share).

Jim Nickerson
08-05-07, 01:25 AM
Will there be pain? I'm sure there will be. You can look at the Nikkei from 1990 till now - still off about 50%. But by the same token, no one in Japan starved to death because their stock market tanked. No one starved in 1987 either.

Also I don't think that the itulip thesis supports a true "depression." It's disinflation followed by reinflation, and a changing of how the world currency markets operate. This means instability, not a president on a campaign trail saying "a chicken in every pot."

Warning is heeded however. I did sell a large position of stock back in february or march that has been collecting 5.05% apr interest at HSBC online. Will see about liquidating more positions as the weeks go on, although I did actually buy a stock as I mentioned in another post somewhere back (MO @ 65..11/share).

The iTulip Ka-Poom Theory is one man's opinion. What you wrote above could prove true if events prove EJ correct. There are others who have stated a true depression lies in our relatively near futures. Prechter would be one, and the other's name I have in mind escapes me at the moment (I'm not at home to turn around and get his book), and with little doubt there are others with visions of very bleak outcome for the US.

It is not worth anything, but personally, I think this country need a serious "wakeup call," and anything less than a depression ain't gonna do the job.

DemonD
08-05-07, 05:31 AM
It is not worth anything, but personally, I think this country need a serious "wakeup call," and anything less than a depression ain't gonna do the job.

You may have a point Jim, but my point is that if we look back on history, there have been very significant market corrections after the GD that did not cause a depression.

Let's use the Nikkei from 1990 and the DJIA from 1929. It took 25 years (1954) for the DJIA to get back to where it had been in 1929. The Nikkei, right now, is right about at 50% of where it was in 1990, and is still off of levels seen in 1991 and 1992.

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/_/_n225

Then look at the DJIA... Now the Nikkei did not drop as precipitously, but in terms of length of time to regain losses, we are looking at similar time frames

http://www.buyupside.com/chartsandimages/images/1929crash_large.gif

Also please note that the low points the DJIA was off 89% and the Nikkei off 75%.

There are many many many more investment opportunities now than there were in 1929. Were there royalty trusts and master limited partnerships? No. Access to foreign currency exposure is much easier now, as is access to precious metals investing. Also back even in 1929 a large percentage of the economy was still based on farming. Many less people are career farmers anymore.

I'm not even saying "it's different this time." Because it's not. It's similar to many other market crashes that have occurred. The point is that if 50% of all hedge funds implode and go away, will that hurt J6P? The general consensus tat I get from itulip is that the FIRE economy is non-productive, so a loss of a lot of financial non-goods non-government businesses won't cause a depression, if anything it might actually get us going in the right direction again as mathematicians who were hired for quant funds get back to doing things like engineering and physics and chemistry and basic math to expand our knowledge base.

All I'm saying is that the signals for the US stock market seem much more similar to the Nikkei in 1990 as opposed to the DJIA in 1929.

Jim Nickerson
08-05-07, 12:08 PM
What does it mean? Given the extremes of imbalance that have developed since 1987, we'll state the risks simply: the market event we are due, when it occurs, will make the October 1987 crash seem benign by comparison. The trigger, as Hormats implies but does not say, will likely be related to the Iraq War.

EJ went on to remark:


We hope two crash calls in seven years is not too many.

To which jk, replied:


it's not a crash yet. it's not yet even a 10% correction for the general market. wait.

So right now is anyone, or everyone frigthened that a "crash" has begun?

From data I collect here is where some of the equity indices are as of 8/3/07 with regard to recent closing highs, and apologies for the formatting jumble.

days since high
DJI -5.99% 11 days
Nasdaq -7.84% 11 days
SPX -7.90% 11 days
NDX -6/88% 11 days
MID -9.30% 15 days
RUT -11.80% 15 days
VGY -10.17% 15 days
DJT -11.18% 11 days
NYA -8.32% 15 days

In my estimate, these losses so far are not highly significant in terms of percentages lost or the time frame over which they have occurred.

However, if one looks at overbought/oversold oscillators, then the negative level some of them have achieved in just three weeks are at levels that have marked bottoms since the markets' runs up beginning 10/02 or 03/03.

For those interested in technical analysis, peruse Carl Swenlin's MARKET OVERSOLD AND DANGEROUS from 8/3/07
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/ChartSpotMenu.html

in which he warns:
As usual I would caution against trying to pick a bottom. For one thing, our primary timing model switched to neutral on July 31, which I think is a good place to be while the market is still displaying weakness. Another thing to consider is that the bears could be right about new bear market just beginning. If this is the case, oversold readings are extremely dangerous and can actually signal the likelihood of even more severe declines. To reiterate, oversold in a bull market means a bottom is near, but in a bear market it means "look out below!"

8/4/07 Mike Burk in Technical Market Report http://www.safehaven.com/article-8110.htm gives a very detailed analysis, basically focused on new lows using exponential moving averages for the Nasdaq, SPX, and RUT. If one can bear to read his analyses, then one can see how the markets' corrections til now probably do not represent whatever may turn out to be a tradeable bottom.

For the short term he notes:


In 1959 Joseph Granville laid out the parameters for a trading system that was popularized by Dick Fabian in the 1980's and to this day is promoted by Doug Fabian.

The original parameters were: buy when the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) crossed from below to above its simple 200 day moving average (SMA) and sell when it crossed from above to below its 200 day SMA.

As of Friday's close the DJIA was still above its 200 day SMA, however the S&P 500 (SPX) closed below its 200 day SMA for the first time since August 2006. The SPX implementation of the system is more widely followed so there may be a lot of selling on Monday.

Other than being very oversold there are no indications of a bottom.


For anyone who thinks Presidential cycle lows "must" occur in the second year of the cycle (presently that was 2006), he notes 1987 as having been the last time that the low occurred in the 3rd year of the Presidential cycle, and points out how this year, 2007, isn't so much like 1987 in certain behavior.

Richard Russell http://ww2.dowtheoryletters.com/ noted 8/3/07
The Dow and the Transports BOTH closed at new lows for the move today. From a Dow Theory standpoint, that's an ugly picture and calls for defensive action on the part of investors

Russell also surmises from Wilshire 5000 that since 7/13/07 the loss in US stocks has been 1.197 trillion Bonars. He also notes that there have been three "panic selling" days. These have occurred since 7/24 and except for a measly additional -2.30% down volume on 7/20, there would have been four "panic selling" days according to my own data.

Where is the market going now? I have no idea. It certainly seems prudent to be defensive now.

What would personally make me bullish anytime soon?

A 90% "panic buying" day would and an Equity Options put/call ratio of near or greater than 1.0 using the data from http://www.cboe.com/data/mktstat.aspx Whether using such indicators would lead to my making any profits from the long side, who knows? Anyone taking this as investment advice, would do so at his/her own peril.

Spartacus
08-05-07, 01:38 PM
during the Cramer video.

Helicopter blades by themselves are fine, but the I guess I'm spoiled.

dbarberic
08-05-07, 02:31 PM
EJ - with the trading curbs that now are in place since 1987, I'm not sure how you can say that it will be an event worse than Black Monday. Woudn't the trading curbs prevent a run-away drop to the downside. The curbs would surely allow time for the PPT to jump in.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trading_curb

Unless.... "they" know that this needs to occur for helicopter money to to begin its drops...

DemonD
08-05-07, 03:15 PM
Unless.... "they" know that this needs to occur for helicopter money to to begin its drops...


I'm not sure how to get volumes of put options out there, but there are a LOT of people buying puts hand over fist in expectation of a 10-20% drop in one day.

Also they can freeze the financial markets, but at some point they have to open them again. Gubmint can't force individuals to buy or sell something, and the PPT might have influence but it can't completely control the market.

Tet had mentioned before that short positions and short funds are at all time highs.

BTW I also don't remember "bear" funds being around in 1987 either.

zoog
08-05-07, 08:50 PM
Just some comparisons.:)

http://img329.imageshack.us/img329/7825/djia5yrcompmm1.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

I used relative market bottoms as starting points prior to major tops. To keep an approximate five-year timeframe, the line for the 1929 crash doesn't go on to show the attempted rallies and then subsequent drop down to -62% by July 1932. Otherwise, the 1987 buildup and crash was similar.

c1ue
08-06-07, 04:50 AM
All I'm saying is that the signals for the US stock market seem much more similar to the Nikkei in 1990 as opposed to the DJIA in 1929.

DD, you may be right, but some key points to consider:

1) Japan was a mercantile economy in 1990 (and still is today). This meant that even with the collapse in prices, Japan and Japanese had liquid assets to live on and jobs were still extant as they were/are largely based on manufacturing export.

The US today is exactly the opposite: while there is plenty of money around, I would argue that it is far more concentrated and thus prone to flee as opposed to be deployed for general population survival. The money is also being generated via money supply growth as opposed to actual physical value creation.

Manufacturing in the US is in a very poor condition outside of airplanes, defense and medicine. Even semiconductors - only the semi equipment companies actually manufacture anything in the US, the rest are just design companies. And the semi equipment guys are starting on a major secular paradigm shift in new process technology deployment.

1929 is actually the only other time in US history with a similar gap of income and wealth as we have now - naturally excluding the feudal era where commoners simply did not use money.

I have also pointed out some time ago that Japan should be considered the '51st' state - they have committed themselves body and soul to be partners with the US. The recession in Japan was significantly ameliorated by the US allowing Japan to yen depreciate/mercantile export their way around general economic misery. This in addition to the US paying for Japan's national defense since 1945.

Several high level executive types in Japan say that Japan and China would reciprocate this (dollar depreciation/build factories in US) to the US, but I have my doubts both as to the ability and to the willingness.

2) The size of bubbles is an issue - Japan's total property values went from $18T in 1991 to $9T in 2006 although this was with deflation.

(from: http://bayarearealestatebubble.blogspot.com/2006/01/history-of-japans-housing-bubble.html)

The US total housing value has gone from something like $22T to $33T from 2000 to 2007, with value being around $10T in 1991.

This is based on approx. 100M housing units in 1991 to the 124M now, with average prices around $100K in 1991, $200K in 2000, and $300K now.

The US housing bubble thus could be up to $23T depending on how you factor inflation and 'intrinsic growth'.

For comparison, the internet bubble was $1T to $2T

EJ
08-06-07, 04:08 PM
EJ - with the trading curbs that now are in place since 1987, I'm not sure how you can say that it will be an event worse than Black Monday. Woudn't the trading curbs prevent a run-away drop to the downside. The curbs would surely allow time for the PPT to jump in.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trading_curb

Unless.... "they" know that this needs to occur for helicopter money to to begin its drops...

Risk homoeostasis (also called risk compensation) theory as applied to car safety features, such as airbags, predicts that as safety features are added drivers tend to increase their exposure to collision risk because they feel better protected.

Statistically, what airbags have done is cause drivers to increase their speed and take additional risks.

This same holds true of markets. As Mayer told us: "It's true that a degree of moral hazard has been created. That's the paradox, stability creates the foundation for greater risk taking and lays the foundation for the next crisis. Anything that works, you put greater reliance on it, the greater the risks are."

It is the very fact that so many people believe what you have just stated which, paradoxically, proves Mayers' point.

unlucky
08-06-07, 06:55 PM
Thanks for all you've written EJ, and for calling it as you see it - an honest voice pitted against the bullhorns of the world's most mendacious industry.

Today's movements (6 August) and the usual post-facto rationalizations made me smile. How long before we see the following headline on bloomberg, "Investors decide yesterday's rationalization were silly - prices rise/fall"...?

DanielLCharts
08-12-07, 03:00 AM
I believe this forum thread to be misleading. I'm pretty sure I recall at least two other occasions in the past 16 months that iTulip urged investors to leave the stock market, both times occurring at price levels lower than the S&P's current level. Itulip provides interesting insight, but the timing of the call and the subsequent correction were due more to coincidence than clairvoyance.

FRED
08-13-07, 12:40 AM
I believe this forum thread to be misleading. I'm pretty sure I recall at least two other occasions in the past 16 months that iTulip urged investors to leave the stock market, both times occurring at price levels lower than the S&P's current level. Itulip provides interesting insight, but the timing of the call and the subsequent correction were due more to coincidence than clairvoyance.

"Pretty sure I recall." Maybe you're right. How about a link?

DemonD
08-13-07, 06:04 AM
I disagree Daniel.

The previous thread that this one mentioned - I do not take that as a firm call to get out of stocks.

THIS thread, however, is what I consider to be the "one" firm call.

There have been many many articles that put very good macro bearish overtones to the economy. Many of them have turned out to be right.

I do recall other threads that were bearish in sentiment on stocks, but none have specifically called "top." And to be fair, in this and the previous post, I still don't see a "top" being called in stocks, more like "get the hell off the tracks before the train runs you over" kind of message.

I mean, the name of the thread is "7 years, 2 warnings." To me that's saying "Hey look at me, I'm making a firm call right now." Other postings were more suggestive and informative as opposed to issuing an out-and-out warning.

I do remember the one thread a few months ago where there was a statement "As the Dow goes through 12,000 the wrong way..." and then the market bounced right back up. Yeah, not a good call there, but possibly only a few months early. Also not a complete warning like this one.

DanielLCharts
08-13-07, 07:05 AM
"Pretty sure I recall." Maybe you're right. How about a link?


Here is one: http://www.itulip.com/quickcomment.htm#June_2006

scroll down to June 13

"It's time to call the official resumption of the bear market March 12, 2006, the day the updated Ka-Poom theory was published here. By resumption of the bear I mean that the bear market in equities that started April 5, 2000 as announced here in A Bear Market is Born April 5, 2000. It will run until the Fed cries "Uncle" and flushes The System with liquidity again. However, we're in a different part of the Bubble Cycle now than in April 2000. We are at the beginning the Ka phase of Ka-Poom. "

The S+P tacked on about 20% since iTulip declared that a bear market had started. If and when I have time I will try to find some others.

DanielLCharts
08-13-07, 07:10 AM
There is one very clear call that occurred after stocks had made a new high following the June '06 corection. I haven't been able to find it through google yet, but I'll continue to hunt in my spare time. It was something to the effective of, "you were crazy to hold stocks before the correction, you're even crazier now - get out now." Probably one of the reasons that that particular thread's alarm has not been trumpeted to the same extent as this thread's is that the prediction failed. It's impossible to predict the future.


I disagree Daniel.

The previous thread that this one mentioned - I do not take that as a firm call to get out of stocks.

THIS thread, however, is what I consider to be the "one" firm call.

There have been many many articles that put very good macro bearish overtones to the economy. Many of them have turned out to be right.

I do recall other threads that were bearish in sentiment on stocks, but none have specifically called "top." And to be fair, in this and the previous post, I still don't see a "top" being called in stocks, more like "get the hell off the tracks before the train runs you over" kind of message.

I mean, the name of the thread is "7 years, 2 warnings." To me that's saying "Hey look at me, I'm making a firm call right now." Other postings were more suggestive and informative as opposed to issuing an out-and-out warning.

I do remember the one thread a few months ago where there was a statement "As the Dow goes through 12,000 the wrong way..." and then the market bounced right back up. Yeah, not a good call there, but possibly only a few months early. Also not a complete warning like this one.

metalman
08-13-07, 08:51 AM
Here is one: http://www.itulip.com/quickcomment.htm#June_2006

scroll down to June 13

"It's time to call the official resumption of the bear market March 12, 2006, the day the updated Ka-Poom theory was published here. By resumption of the bear I mean that the bear market in equities that started April 5, 2000 as announced here in A Bear Market is Born April 5, 2000. It will run until the Fed cries "Uncle" and flushes The System with liquidity again. However, we're in a different part of the Bubble Cycle now than in April 2000. We are at the beginning the Ka phase of Ka-Poom. "

The S+P tacked on about 20% since iTulip declared that a bear market had started. If and when I have time I will try to find some others.

i dunno. there's a difference between saying the bear market has resumed and the shit's about to hit the fan. clearly ej missed the resumption of the debt driven m&a and lbo bubbles that have been driving stocks up since then until the credit bubble popped and killed the game. but i took his call july 25 to mean that game was over ala the march 2000 call that the tech bubble was over. it was a real warning that something ugly was about to happen, not a call on the direction of markets.

so do you think the july 25 call is wrong? does the market continue its rise from here?

DanielLCharts
08-13-07, 10:29 AM
so do you think the july 25 call is wrong? does the market continue its rise from here?

I think...

- Nobody knows what is going to happen. I have no idea whther the call is wrong or not, nor do I care.

- My opinion doesn't matter because the market is going to do what it wants to, regardless.

- EJ could get his "top calling" call right, but is more likely to get it wrong, because there is no magic formula to top or bottom calling.

- Threads that express concern over whether a top is in have more to do with dramatization than they do with trading plans or portfolio management. I'll admit that I used to be into those dramas. No more.

Uncle Jack
08-13-07, 10:59 AM
I think...

- EJ could get his "top calling" call right, but is more likely to get it wrong, because there is no magic formula to top or bottom calling.


Cool, EJ has a magic formula? I want to know what it is.

But seriously, I recall, though I will not expend the energy to find, EJ making a comment in either December or January that if anyone had stayed invested and enjoyed that runup from last June they should probably consider themselves lucky and get out. Obviously, not his exact words.

I think the important consideration is the time period in which you use to judge the accuracy of the call. If you judge any comments regarding selling last June, this January, or now, at what time do you look back and say, "good/bad call"? The game isn't over unless you are at this very moment at the cliff of your investment horizon.

Go out a few years and any and all of his remarks could be accurate, or not. It's too early to say.

I want to see that magic formula, EJ.

DanielLCharts
08-13-07, 11:10 AM
But seriously, I recall, though I will not expend the energy to find, EJ making a comment in either December or January that if anyone had stayed invested and enjoyed that runup from last June they should probably consider themselves lucky and get out. Obviously, not his exact words.


Thank you for backing me up on that bit.

BTW, I'm not trying to dis iTulip or EJ. I think they shine a wonderful light on shennanigans that go on during times when bubbles are created - a light that the media won't touch and most people don't want to see. That said, I just don't think they're anymore adept at calling exact turning points based on fundamentals than, dare I say his name? Jim Cramer.

bill
08-13-07, 01:56 PM
Thank you for backing me up on that bit.

BTW, I'm not trying to dis iTulip or EJ. I think they shine a wonderful light on shennanigans that go on during times when bubbles are created - a light that the media won't touch and most people don't want to see. That said, I just don't think they're anymore adept at calling exact turning points based on fundamentals than, dare I say his name? Jim Cramer.


EJ may not get his timing dead on date correct but his cycle forecasting parameters are within a given time period I feel comfortable with. That’s my opinion because I am a 5-7 year investment cycle investor not a daily trader.

EJ
08-13-07, 03:34 PM
I think...

- Nobody knows what is going to happen. I have no idea whther the call is wrong or not, nor do I care.

- My opinion doesn't matter because the market is going to do what it wants to, regardless.

- EJ could get his "top calling" call right, but is more likely to get it wrong, because there is no magic formula to top or bottom calling.

- Threads that express concern over whether a top is in have more to do with dramatization than they do with trading plans or portfolio management. I'll admit that I used to be into those dramas. No more.

What you say is generally true. However, insiders told me what was going to happen in April 2000 when I issued my last warning in March 2000. Conversations with fund managers and others led me to conclude in July 2007 what was going to happen soon.

The people I talk to do not mean to tell me what is going to happen, but I've learned to listen to what they mean versus what they say. Often they don't really know what they are saying. For example, hubris is an early indicator of a top. A change of body language from hubris to circumspection to fear over a period of months, well before the markets have moved, is one indicator. And if you talk to enough of them, your determinations become more certain.

We just got off a client conference call with Goldman Sachs.

Interpreting the Recent Market Moves
Monday, August 13, 2007
11:00am EDT

The main purpose of the call is to have a discussion regarding the current market volatility and tightening financial conditions with an aim to address the following key questions:

1. Will recent events derail the global economic growth outlook?

2. Has something changed in the underlying fundamentals for different asset classes that impacts their outlook.

Featured Guest Speakers:

Laurence H. Meyer, Former member of Fed Board of Governors; Vice Chairman, Macroeconomic Advisors

Jonathan Beinner, Chief Investment Officer; co-head of US and Global Fixed Income, GSAM

Richard A. Friedman, Head of Merchant Banking Division; Chairman of Investment Committee, Goldman Sachs
In the context of conversations I had with various people over the weekend, statements made on the call and our analysis are posted today in the iTulip Select (http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=7837#post7837) section. If you are a paid-up subscriber, you can read it here (http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=13760#post13760).

DemonD
08-14-07, 02:00 AM
Daniel, I stand corrected.

I will say in how I take it, because itulip has had a very bearish slant on stocks since it re-started, I haven't taken any of the previous posts as a "boy who cried wolf" type deal.

To me this thread, right here, is ringing the bell. The previous thread on 7/25 I read as another bearish slant on stocks. It is this one that I am taking as the true "warning."

DanielLCharts
10-02-07, 02:48 AM
Well, I guess this warning turned out much like the rest. Naz and DJ hitting new 52 week highs just a couple months later. SPX a whisker away from fresh highs. Asian indices at new highs.

It definitely wasn't the time to get out of stocks generally (eg. no timeframe, no profit target).

DemonD
10-02-07, 02:51 AM
danny, i was just thinking about this thread earlier today. Let's revisit this thread in 6 months... for better or for worse. I think your criticisms are very valid tho (no timeframe or target). Hopefully if/when itulip rings another warning bell there will be more specifics.

jk
10-02-07, 10:08 AM
Well, I guess this warning turned out much like the rest. Naz and DJ hitting new 52 week highs just a couple months later. SPX a whisker away from fresh highs. Asian indices at new highs.

It definitely wasn't the time to get out of stocks generally (eg. no timeframe, no profit target).

i assume that calls here are for long term moves. read john hussman's column this week, over at hussmanfunds.com. he mentions that current market conditions historically have preceded small upmoves of a few percent followed by abrupt severe sell-offs. i have no crystal ball, and neither does hussman or ej, but we're in a probabilistic long-term game here. as demonD says, let's check back in 6 mos. but i think it's way too early to conclude "it definitely wasn't the time to get out of stocks generally" unless you expect calls to nail the exact tops and bottoms.

EJ
10-02-07, 12:18 PM
i assume that calls here are for long term moves. read john hussman's column this week, over at hussmanfunds.com. he mentions that current market conditions historically have preceded small upmoves of a few percent followed by abrupt severe sell-offs. i have no crystal ball, and neither does hussman or ej, but we're in a probabilistic long-term game here. as demonD says, let's check back in 6 mos. but i think it's way too early to conclude "it definitely wasn't the time to get out of stocks generally" unless you expect calls to nail the exact tops and bottoms.

Stocks Surge on Rate Cut Hopes (http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gHs5OM3gFG_DytQQZFbWfgPT08MAD8S0IQ600)

By JOE BEL BRUNO – 22 hours ago

NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street shot higher Monday, sending the Dow Jones industrial average above 14,000 for the first time in 2 1/2 months as investors moved back into stocks at the start of the fourth quarter.


Wall Street, of course, wants retail investors to focus on the price of securities, not the underlying risk (http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/10/01/2047552.htm?section=world). Prices may be rising, but risk rising faster. The risk-adjusted return on stocks and bonds has been falling since iTulip re-started March 2006. The growing risks are: inflation and default. The Fed's bind is that all available tools to control one risk make the other risk worse. The credit crunch was a forcing function that caused the Fed to chose one over the other, thus tipping its hand.

This piece by PIMCO's McCully (http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/FF/2007/GCBF+August-+September+2007.htm) is illustrative. He makes the same case we do (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=16690#post16690), but using different terms, that the Fed, in order to avoid a runaway debt deflation, will bail out the FIRE Economy at the risk of more serious inflation in the P/C Economy.

Looking at the stock market on a risk-adjusted basis is unintuitive. Price is apparent; underlying risk is not. You have to dig hard and analyze to determine risk, and even then two analysts are unlikely to reach the same conclusions. Bears look for the risk, bulls do not.

While it's always dangerous to try to assign a reason why a market is behaving a certain way short term in the absence of an obvious contributing event, our theory on the rise of the stock market recently is that US stocks look to foreign investors the way Las Vegas did to the thousands of visiting Europeans, Canadians, and Asians we saw there a few weeks back. Priced in euros, yen, Canadian dollars, and sterling, US stocks are fire sale cheap.


http://www.itulip.com/images/DOWeuros.gif


The rise of the DOW, gold, and other assets priced in dollars is tracking the decline in the dollar. Frankly, I don't understand why anyone who is paid a salary or earns interest in US$ is buying US stocks.

Finally, A Financial Market Crash is a Process, Not an Event (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1797). I don't understand the impatience for The Big One. Relax and enjoy the illusion while you can.

dbarberic
10-02-07, 01:18 PM
This reminds me of the post I wrote a two-three months ago:

Coming Ka Event: Real or Nominal?
http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1624

I'm a betting man and I believe that Ben has shown his cards. This sucker (the Ka) is going to be in real values and minimal in nominal values.

Is there an update out there of the Dow priced in various commodities (gold, oil, etc)? I'd wager that it shows the Dow crashing right now.

GRG55
10-02-07, 02:00 PM
Well, I guess this warning turned out much like the rest. Naz and DJ hitting new 52 week highs just a couple months later. SPX a whisker away from fresh highs. Asian indices at new highs.

It definitely wasn't the time to get out of stocks generally (eg. no timeframe, no profit target).

Speculative fever is high, as evidenced by yesterday's run in the financials on the assumption that the worst is over now that UBS and Citi have allegedly "paid their debt to society".

The US averages won't advance if the financials can't continue to advance. For the financials to advance you have to believe they won't need to keep increasing loan loss provisions in coming quarters. Or you have to believe that yesterday the market decided ALL future loan loss provisions are priced in. I don't believe either of those.

The banks are a speculation, not an investment at this moment in history. And so are the markets.

Rajiv
10-02-07, 03:52 PM
People rarely take stock volatility into consideration, or only pay it cursory respect - even though it is a centerpiece to the Black-Scholes model. For example, I am in the midst of a company audit -- and the auditors want a volatility number -- the typical volatility figure for the pharmaceutical industry is pegged at 65-75%. We have had the darndest time trying to convince them that the figure that should be used is much higher given that we are currently a small private company, and not even public yet.

This practice can also be seen when we look at the 10Ks of existing private companies -- an example in point ISTA pharmaceuticals (ISTA) - IPOd in 2000 at $106 -- went to a high of around $146 per share - currently trading ~$7. Yet in all its 10K filings from 2001-2005, it gives a volatility figure of 73% -- only changing in 2006 to 95.5% Their stock price history can be seen below

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/my/i/ista

I fail to see how the volatility figures supplied to the SEC have any validity at all!

c1ue
10-04-07, 03:00 PM
Well, I guess this warning turned out much like the rest. Naz and DJ hitting new 52 week highs just a couple months later. SPX a whisker away from fresh highs. Asian indices at new highs.

It definitely wasn't the time to get out of stocks generally (eg. no timeframe, no profit target).


Hmm, interesting, an ex post facto critique of sentiment.

Where in turn is your time frame and profit target call?

It is very easy to disparage other people's lines in the sand - but your credibility is worthless if you don't have one yourself.

Contribute your wisdom to the community.

metalman
10-05-07, 06:40 PM
Hmm, interesting, an ex post facto critique of sentiment.

Where in turn is your time frame and profit target call?

It is very easy to disparage other people's lines in the sand - but your credibility is worthless if you don't have one yourself.

Contribute your wisdom to the community.

"forum pigeon" flies in, poops, flies out. fred, what do you say?

Contemptuous
10-05-07, 06:57 PM
DanielLCharts, from what I've read of his posts from an earlier time around here, is a pretty smart guy. Whatever his issue is on this thread, it should certainly not be dismissed too cavalierly, as it may well have some relevance in coming months.

lobodelmar
10-08-07, 04:38 PM
Well, I guess this warning turned out much like the rest. Naz and DJ hitting new 52 week highs just a couple months later. SPX a whisker away from fresh highs. Asian indices at new highs.

It definitely wasn't the time to get out of stocks generally (eg. no timeframe, no profit target).

Daniel, you are entirely correct. The market is going to do what it is going to do, and even very smart people often get it wrong. If iTulip has taught me anything, it is that trying to time the market is a fool's errand.

When I first started reading iTulip, I could sense that there was a financial crisis waiting to happen, and hoped this would be a forum to learn how to ride out the storm. I quickly realized I wouldn't find that answer.

But I have learned more about financial markets and the way the real world works from these discussions than I learned in business school. Risk, inflation, what is valuable and what is not. How I respond to negative swings in the market. There's a lot of relevant data no one bothers to talk about in finance and investment classes.

On a recent dip, sure things were headed towards 1929, I pulled a chunk of my retirement funds out of the stock fund they were in, and stuck them in a money market account. Am I sad that had I left them where they were, I'd be several thousand dollars richer? For today, yeah, but ask again tomorrow. Or the next day. Never know what might happen. Despite the ups and downs of every news cycle, putting 100% of my 401k in high volatility stock funds made no sense. Is it the best strategy? I don't know...but I am more comfortable with the decision, in case Mr. Bernanke grabs his hat again and the rabbit doesn't pop out.

FRED
10-08-07, 05:17 PM
Daniel, you are entirely correct. The market is going to do what it is going to do, and even very smart people often get it wrong. If iTulip has taught me anything, it is that trying to time the market is a fool's errand.

When I first started reading iTulip, I could sense that there was a financial crisis waiting to happen, and hoped this would be a forum to learn how to ride out the storm. I quickly realized I wouldn't find that answer.

But I have learned more about financial markets and the way the real world works from these discussions than I learned in business school. Risk, inflation, what is valuable and what is not. How I respond to negative swings in the market. There's a lot of relevant data no one bothers to talk about in finance and investment classes.

On a recent dip, sure things were headed towards 1929, I pulled a chunk of my retirement funds out of the stock fund they were in, and stuck them in a money market account. Am I sad that had I left them where they were, I'd be several thousand dollars richer? For today, yeah, but ask again tomorrow. Or the next day. Never know what might happen. Despite the ups and downs of every news cycle, putting 100% of my 401k in high volatility stock funds made no sense. Is it the best strategy? I don't know...but I am more comfortable with the decision, in case Mr. Bernanke grabs his hat again and the rabbit doesn't pop out.

To make sure you're taking away the right lesson, see:

Ka-Poom Theory Revisited (http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=20331) (4/13/05)

A Financial Market Crash is a Process, Not an Event (http://itulip.com/forums/A%20Financial%20Market%20Crash%20is%20a%20Process, %20Not%20an%20Event) (8/16/07)

Ronald C. Ward, President FutureSelect Porfolio Management (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2173) (10/8/07)

EJ
10-08-07, 06:24 PM
To make sure you're taking away the right lesson, see:

Ka-Poom Theory Revisited (http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=20331) (4/13/05)

A Financial Market Crash is a Process, Not an Event (http://itulip.com/forums/A%20Financial%20Market%20Crash%20is%20a%20Process, %20Not%20an%20Event) (8/16/07)

Ronald C. Ward, President FutureSelect Porfolio Management (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2173) (10/8/07)

Neophytes are only bearish when the business press is reporting apparent issues.

sunny129
10-08-07, 09:43 PM
Has anyone thinks of an insurance against 'BINLADEN PUT" (terrorist event affecting Mkt) scenerio in addition to all the potential bearish issues discussed here? Thanks.

metalman
10-08-07, 09:57 PM
Has anyone thinks of an insurance against 'BINLADEN PUT" (terrorist event affecting Mkt) scenerio in addition to all the potential bearish issues discussed here? Thanks.

near as i can tell, the itulip credo is either get out near the top, if you think it's not a solid market (like now) or if you hang in there then don't get out near the bottom. that's the classic error. hang in until it's bottomed out, sell, then wait until it's nearly topped again to get back in.

bin laden is just one threat. my take is the guy won the lottery with 9/11 and a repeat ain't never gonna happen. here's my worst case scenario: don putin tries to extort money from the wrong guys and the shit hits the fan.

Andreuccio
10-09-07, 12:42 AM
To make sure you're taking away the right lesson, see:

Ka-Poom Theory Revisited (http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=20331) (4/13/05)

A Financial Market Crash is a Process, Not an Event (http://itulip.com/forums/A%20Financial%20Market%20Crash%20is%20a%20Process, %20Not%20an%20Event) (8/16/07)

Ronald C. Ward, President FutureSelect Porfolio Management (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2173) (10/8/07)


The second link, A Financial Market Crash is a Process, Not an Event (http://itulip.com/forums/A%20Financial%20Market%20Crash%20is%20a%20Process, %20Not%20an%20Event), is dead.

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1797

will take you to the article.

lobodelmar
10-16-07, 12:11 PM
To make sure you're taking away the right lesson, see:

Ka-Poom Theory Revisited (http://goldismoney.info/forums/showthread.php?t=20331) (4/13/05)

A Financial Market Crash is a Process, Not an Event (http://itulip.com/forums/A%20Financial%20Market%20Crash%20is%20a%20Process, %20Not%20an%20Event) (8/16/07)

Ronald C. Ward, President FutureSelect Porfolio Management (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2173) (10/8/07)


Neophytes are only bearish when the business press is reporting apparent issues.

Fred, EJ, I am curious...were you just clarifying and underlining or suggesting a different path? If I wasn;t clear, I wasn't suggesting pull all your stocks and stick it under a mattress...I used to have 100% of my 401ks in growth and international stock funds (since I am young and figured I could ride growth for a long time before i needed any of it) and now I have a percentage in a money market and bond fund. I am limited in all of my retirement plans to a limited set of options.

In your interview with Ron Ward, and elsewhere on these fora, it seems that most people agree with doing something similar. Ward stated: We have increased our cash position and limited our exposure to US and European equity markets.

Just wanted to clarify.

FRED
10-16-07, 04:21 PM
Fred, EJ, I am curious...were you just clarifying and underlining or suggesting a different path? If I wasn;t clear, I wasn't suggesting pull all your stocks and stick it under a mattress...I used to have 100% of my 401ks in growth and international stock funds (since I am young and figured I could ride growth for a long time before i needed any of it) and now I have a percentage in a money market and bond fund. I am limited in all of my retirement plans to a limited set of options.

In your interview with Ron Ward, and elsewhere on these forums, it seems that most people agree with doing something similar. Ward stated: We have increased our cash position and limited our exposure to US and European equity markets.

Just wanted to clarify.

Plain English: This is a sucker's rally. How long will equities correct? Until DOW/Gold reaches 1:1. Will there be other rallies? Of course.

More on the post-bubble crash, re-inflation rally, re-inflation failure crash cycle later.


http://www.itulip.com/images/1929vs1999.gif

Jim Nickerson
10-17-07, 12:36 AM
Plain English: This is a sucker's rally. How long will equities correct? Until DOW/Gold reaches 1:1. Will there be other rallies? Of course.

More on the post-bubble crash, re-inflation rally, re-inflation failure crash cycle later.



http://www.itulip.com/images/1929vs1999.gif


Fred,

It is my impression that you are the second "Fred" that EJ has employed at least since I joined iTulip. It is further my impression that you are someone capable of admininstrating a website, that you would be to me a "computer geek" and I say that with a whole lot of respect if you qualify in that category of expertise. From time to time it is my impression that you post things for EJ and possible other invited contributors and these posts appear under the name "Fred." Other times I think you post things that are of your own doing.

There are four people who have contributed a lot to iTulip whom I for various reasons consider highly credible individuals: bart, EJ, Finster, jk (abc order) and there are others but those four stand out in my mind. I think there is a tendancy amongst readers here to treat what appears under your posting name with the same credibility as they might treat EJ's posts. Because you have not written enough opinions on iTulip that I can discern as being yours, when something like the above post appears, if you wrote it I would tend to treat it one way, and if EJ wrote it or dictated it to you to post I would treat it differently. Perhaps all this demonstrates total confusion on my part, but I would like for it to be clarified. If you, the present "Fred" post anything that is purely your opinion--then as a suggestion why not get yourself a new screen name and post it under that, such as "Fred II" or whatever you fancy as a name. If you post anything for another writer, or for EJ, or that you might write after a conversation with EJ post that as Fred.

Just a serious suggestion.

raja
10-17-07, 10:23 PM
If you, the present "Fred" post anything that is purely your opinion--then as a suggestion why not get yourself a new screen name and post it under that, such as "Fred II" or whatever you fancy as a name. If you post anything for another writer, or for EJ, or that you might write after a conversation with EJ post that as Fred.
I second Jim's suggestion . . . .

FRED
10-18-07, 10:48 AM
Fred,

It is my impression that you are the second "Fred" that EJ has employed at least since I joined iTulip. It is further my impression that you are someone capable of admininstrating a website, that you would be to me a "computer geek" and I say that with a whole lot of respect if you qualify in that category of expertise. From time to time it is my impression that you post things for EJ and possible other invited contributors and these posts appear under the name "Fred." Other times I think you post things that are of your own doing.

There are four people who have contributed a lot to iTulip whom I for various reasons consider highly credible individuals: bart, EJ, Finster, jk (abc order) and there are others but those four stand out in my mind. I think there is a tendancy amongst readers here to treat what appears under your posting name with the same credibility as they might treat EJ's posts. Because you have not written enough opinions on iTulip that I can discern as being yours, when something like the above post appears, if you wrote it I would tend to treat it one way, and if EJ wrote it or dictated it to you to post I would treat it differently. Perhaps all this demonstrates total confusion on my part, but I would like for it to be clarified. If you, the present "Fred" post anything that is purely your opinion--then as a suggestion why not get yourself a new screen name and post it under that, such as "Fred II" or whatever you fancy as a name. If you post anything for another writer, or for EJ, or that you might write after a conversation with EJ post that as Fred.

Just a serious suggestion.

I'm the head geek here. Thank you. I take that as a compliment. When I post material for EJ or anyone else, I post "by Eric Janszen" or "by Dave Lewis" and so on. When I post as myself, I don't. From now on I'll post "by Fred" when I post as myself to eliminate that confusion.

That said, remember we got the name "Fred" from the name of the Federal Reserve database system... "Federal Reserve Economic Data" or "Fred." Fred is not intended as person per se but as a role. Necessarily there are different Fred's at different times, owing to the global nature of iTulip. To prevent spam, crashes, and other issues, this site is managed 7/24 by a combination of contractors and employees. "Fred" never sleeps. So when you report a spammer, you may get a response from me or from someone else logged in as Fred. Hope that's not too confusing.

Andreuccio
10-18-07, 12:30 PM
"Fred" never sleeps.



You ought to try to get some rest. You're lack of sleep might explain some of the deterioration we saw in this thread:

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2149

Anyway, I'm glad you cleared up the "Fred" story. I hadn't seen anything about it and I was beginning to wonder who/what Fred was. I saw some people address to EJ responses and questions to "Fred" statements, and I was wondering if maybe they were the same person. For all I know, EJ, in all his brilliance, is also schizophrenic.

Maybe to avoid confusion for new newbies, you could put a short bio of "Fred" in the staff section of the "Information" page, below Eric Janszen, Candy Janszen, Mark Readdie, etc.

Andreuccio
10-18-07, 01:29 PM
From this:


Plain English: This is a sucker's rally. How long will equities correct? Until DOW/Gold reaches 1:1. Will there be other rallies? Of course.

More on the post-bubble crash, re-inflation rally, re-inflation failure crash cycle later.




and this:


If more financial market Armageddon is coming, why is the stock market rallying? Simple. As we have heard from multiple credible sources, fund managers, who control 50% of the capital on Wall Street, are trying to ramp it through the end of October to make year end bonuses. Several we've talked to, off-the-record, have told us that they feel that this is The Last Hurrah for this market cycle. Pocket the money while you can.

Come November and December, positions will be closed out. Any iTulip readers still playing in the traffic then will need to be quick on their feet, they tell us.

from this thread http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2213, I'm going to assume you're making your third warning in seven years and two months.

I have a question. Do you have a sense of if this "reinflation failure crash" will be of the all assets down variety, or will PM's and the XAU continue up?

Jim Nickerson
10-18-07, 10:59 PM
I'm the head geek here. Thank you. I take that as a compliment. When I post material for EJ or anyone else, I post "by Eric Janszen" or "by Dave Lewis" and so on. When I post as myself, I don't. From now on I'll post "by Fred" when I post as myself to eliminate that confusion.

That said, remember we got the name "Fred" from the name of the Federal Reserve database system... "Federal Reserve Economic Data" or "Fred." Fred is not intended as person per se but as a role. Necessarily there are different Fred's at different times, owing to the global nature of iTulip. To prevent spam, crashes, and other issues, this site is managed 7/24 by a combination of contractors and employees. "Fred" never sleeps. So when you report a spammer, you may get a response from me or from someone else logged in as Fred. Hope that's not too confusing.

I appreciate your time to clairfy this, "by Fred."

Your post below, "by Fred," is to me a pretty "heavy" post which now I take from what you replied above to be your own opinion--which I have no basis for knowing whether it is worth a hoot or not, whereas had EJ made the post I would definitely give it credance. Is that chart something you worked up yourself?

Seriously, if you are a real "geek," how much expertise do you have in investing?

So from now on if you post your own opinion, and it were quoted, will it show: Originally Posted by by Fred? Is that correct? How about the other "Fred's," do they ever post opinions?



Originally Posted by Fred http://www.itulip.com/forums/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=17795#post17795)
Plain English: This is a sucker's rally. How long will equities correct? Until DOW/Gold reaches 1:1. Will there be other rallies? Of course.

More on the post-bubble crash, re-inflation rally, re-inflation failure crash cycle later.



http://www.itulip.com/images/1929vs1999.gif

zoog
10-18-07, 11:32 PM
...Is that chart something you worked up yourself?...

That chart showed up yesterday morning in EJ's thread The End of the Debt and Delusion (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=17861#post17861). I would assume the chart had already been put together the day before in preparations for EJ's post.

Jim Nickerson
10-19-07, 12:17 AM
That chart showed up yesterday morning in EJ's thread The End of the Debt and Delusion (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=17861#post17861). I would assume the chart had already been put together the day before in preparations for EJ's post.

Thanks, zoog, "by Fred" should be a good poster and reference when he is copying other people's materials.

rabot10
10-20-07, 06:25 PM
I mean, see what turns up later today!

OK Big Guy it is tomorrow let's see it. My kids are counting on U