EJ's Quick Comments

[Jim Nickerson]

Crash = Bears
Rise =Bulls

In EJ's poll there are 10:1 Bears% to Bulls%. The AM. ASSOC. Individual Investors and some Investors Intelligence data that I track, assuming my data are correct, shows the biggest ratio of Bears% to Bulls% to be 2.8 :1 for the week ending 2/21/03. The SPX then lost about 19 points over the next two weeks, but then gained almost 475 points to 5/5/06.

Were I a long term Bull, I do not think I would be attracted to i|Tulip.com--it would be unpleasant.

I suspect that there is a bearish bias to those who spend much time looking at iTulip--which in itself might skew the poll toward bearishness

From a contraian perspective, the polls it very bullish.

EJ should run the poll weekly from Fridays market close until before opening on Mondays, and then post a table with the ongoing results.

Jim

[jk]

i assume the poll is worthless. itulip is not "balanced" in its views. so why expect its readers to be?

[EJ]

Crash = Bears
Rise =Bulls

In EJ's poll there are 10:1 Bears% to Bulls%. The AM. ASSOC. Individual Investors and some Investors Intelligence data that I track, assuming my data are correct, shows the biggest ratio of Bears% to Bulls% to be 2.8 :1 for the week ending 2/21/03. The SPX then lost about 19 points over the next two weeks, but then gained almost 475 points to 5/5/06.

Were I a long term Bull, I do not think I would be attracted to i|Tulip.com--it would be unpleasant.

I suspect that there is a bearish bias to those who spend much time looking at iTulip--which in itself might skew the poll toward bearishness

From a contraian perspective, the polls it very bullish.

EJ should run the poll weekly from Fridays market close until before opening on Mondays, and then post a table with the ongoing results.

Jim

iTulip.com has always functioned as a place for skeptics, an outlet and a source of contrarian views without the subtext of a sales pitch. Any poll taken here is unrepresentative of the general population, because the general population is credulous. The results of the polls here are collectively a definition of a community of skeptics.

Since the credulous are in the vast majority. They want to believe the CPI, GDP and employment numbers they read, that the DOW as reported is "flat," and generally go for the bread and circuses. They don't like it here. It's not a comfortable place for anyone who wants to hear that you can make gasoline out of water or gold out of lead at the going price of gas and lead, that "deficits don't matter" or that you can lend trillions without consequence to people who can never pay it back.

The polls are not intended to be scientific. They are meant to tell us something about each other. And they're entertaining. Running them on a weekly basis won't produce a scientific result but give us with a trend that over time may be meaningful, a ratio of credulity to skepticism. It's a good idea. We need to find a way to automate it to make it practical.

[EJ]

BTW, when we move to a new server we'll have the kind of BBS you all deserve. Apologies for this POS and thanks for putting up with it this long.