Peculiar jump in VOLUME NYSE last 30 minutes 6/22/07

[Jim Nickerson]

Since 4/5/04 I have tracked the 30-minute volume figures as provided at the end of the day by http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-tradingdiary.html?mod=mdc_h_usshl (subscription). Today the NYSE volume between 3:30PM and the close was 821,066,080 shares. Using my data, which I believe is close to being correct, the average volume (all the way back to 4/5/04) for the last 30-minutes prior to today was 243,898,534. Today's volume in last 30 minutes was 3.37 times average volume.

So today, 37% of the NYSE's volume occurred in the last 30 minutes the market traded. The previous max during the last 30-minutes was 784,956,660 shares on 6/30/06, which other than having been the end of Q206 was an insignificant day as far as I can readily determine.

When I first saw this while the market was closing down, I thought it must be a mistake, the NASDAQ volume also jumped, but the WJS doesn't break it down as it does the NYSE volume. The final WSJ suggests this was no error.

Does anyone have any idea(s) as to why the volume may have lifted off like a rocket so late today?

[Jim Nickerson]

Perhaps this is all that the jump was about.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070622/bs_nm/markets_stocks_dc_73;_ylt=AiWyydla0iiGgPNjUvBV5Rlk M3wV

Wall Street stumbles as subprime worries reemerge. Jennifer Coogan Fri Jun 22, 6:29 PM ET


Trading was influenced by the rebalancing of the Russell 3000, a benchmark many investors use to measure the performance of their portfolios.

A total of 277 stocks are being added to and an equal number are being deleted from the Russell 3000 (^RUA (http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/finance/nm/bs_nm/storytext/markets_stocks_dc/23488005/*http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5erua&d=t) - news (http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/biz/nm/bs_nm/storytext/markets_stocks_dc/23488005/*http://biz.yahoo.com/n/_/_rua.html)) in the rebalancing of the broad market gauge, the Russell Investment Group said.

Trading was heavy on the NYSE, with about 2.62 billion shares changing hands, well above last year's estimated daily average of 1.84 billion, while on Nasdaq, about 2.73 billion shares traded, above last year's daily average of 2.02 billion.

[rachits]

Is this a sign of a upcoming large decline? I really think the hedge fund blowups have a good chance of spreading. It could be market intervention although I am skeptical that the "PPT" will intervene unless there is a drastic decline.

Main reason why I don't think its time yet is because this morning I had a strong urge to increase my short positions. Usually thats a sign the market will go up.

[edit] Your post 3 minutes ago makes much more sense :)

[Jim Nickerson]

Is this a sign of a upcoming large decline? I really think the hedge fund blowups have a good chance of spreading. It could be market intervention although I am skeptical that the "PPT" will intervene unless there is a drastic decline.

Main reason why I don't think its time yet is because this morning I had a strong urge to increase my short positions. Usually thats a sign the market will go up.



Should've followed your urge.

[rachits]

unfortunately they are usually wrong.

I use it as my own personal contrarian indicators. Unfortunately, knowing this means its very hard to tell when its my rational mind making smart calls or "herd" urges that are usually wrong.

[DemonD]

Oddly enough jim, the 6/30/06 date is more unusual than 6/22. Welcome to the world triple witching (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triple_witching_hour).

[Jim Nickerson]

Oddly enough jim, the 6/30/06 date is more unusual than 6/22. Welcome to the world triple witching (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triple_witching_hour).

Yes, but triple witching takes place the 3rd Friday of Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec, and the 22nd was not triple witching nor was 6/30/06. So neither had anything to do with 3 witches.

[DemonD]

i guess i should have checked my calendar eh? you're right, so i have no idea.