Tet
06-11-07, 10:48 AM
Uncle Buck has been sick for a loooong time and looks like he came to a near death situation from the 3-year weekly back in April. April's low for Uncle Buck still makes a higher low from the December '04 low when Uncle Buck barely touched 80 on the chart. Bear's need Uncle Buck to break below 80 to keep their case alive. Hard to believe that on a 3-year weekly Uncle Buck has been no where close to his 200-day moving average. From November of '05 Uncle Buck has done nothing but head lower, maybe this is the time for the move higher. Charts certainly never head straight to zero without some unloading on the way down.
http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/5783/dollar3yearxa8.png
Bear case is the same as it's been for the last seven years and yes this has been a seven year bear market for Uncle Buckster. March 2000 good old Uncle Buck was at 120 on this chart and again in March 2001 Uncle Buck touches 120 but still below the March 2000 high. In other words a lower high and the Bear case gets started. Buffett makes his only currency bet in March of 2000, exactly at 120. Who says you can't time the market? Six year moves for currencies are about what you see, we are now well into year seven.
Bear case on Uncle Buck is still the endless printing and borrowing of our Federal System. Have we run our course or does it continue?
Bull case is the Fed's need another war to continue expanding the money supply and currently everyone on the war list (ie countries that produce or control oil) can fight back. This means no war and no increase in spending for the time being. Russia now that winter is finally over is going to start exporting some oil. Lower oil prices for the last five years since I've been watching have meant stronger d0llar. Disruptions are going to be hard to come by, Sudan, Nigeria, Hurricanes and Iraq have all been done, where does the next drop in production come from and can it match Russia's increasing output? I'd say Uncle Buck at the very least breaks through the 50-day moving average, 200-day might be too much of a stretch for this leg up. TWT
http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/5783/dollar3yearxa8.png
Bear case is the same as it's been for the last seven years and yes this has been a seven year bear market for Uncle Buckster. March 2000 good old Uncle Buck was at 120 on this chart and again in March 2001 Uncle Buck touches 120 but still below the March 2000 high. In other words a lower high and the Bear case gets started. Buffett makes his only currency bet in March of 2000, exactly at 120. Who says you can't time the market? Six year moves for currencies are about what you see, we are now well into year seven.
Bear case on Uncle Buck is still the endless printing and borrowing of our Federal System. Have we run our course or does it continue?
Bull case is the Fed's need another war to continue expanding the money supply and currently everyone on the war list (ie countries that produce or control oil) can fight back. This means no war and no increase in spending for the time being. Russia now that winter is finally over is going to start exporting some oil. Lower oil prices for the last five years since I've been watching have meant stronger d0llar. Disruptions are going to be hard to come by, Sudan, Nigeria, Hurricanes and Iraq have all been done, where does the next drop in production come from and can it match Russia's increasing output? I'd say Uncle Buck at the very least breaks through the 50-day moving average, 200-day might be too much of a stretch for this leg up. TWT