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FRED
06-26-06, 01:42 AM
Is the storm past? (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=7960C057-9267-46A1-89FA-58C07EFDC086)
June 26, 2006 (MarketWatch)

It's been a rough few weeks, but one seasoned observer is beginning to relax, slightly. Actually, it's two, Pamela and Mary Anne Aden, who publish their Aden Forecast from Costa Rica.

They wrote Friday: "The markets are rebounding ... be it gold, silver. The U.S. stock market, the global markets and currencies ... they are all rising from their sell-off lows, while the dollar and bonds decline. The rises have further to go."

AntiSpin: We're not ready to take a chill pill yet. Mr. Market has a few more surprises. We need to see a lot of finance upside-down to turn right-side up before we call the all-clear. For example, there was a time when a person who failed to pay off a debt was called a "deadbeat." Now that term is applied to persons who pay of their debts. On the flip side of the Monthly Payment Consumer coin is the "I need to make loans no matter what" banker. Of course, this whole mad course of lending is driven by the need for Bank X to make more loans than Bank Y, even if both are running out of credit-worthy borrowers, to maintain growth rates of share prices. They all ran out of customers years ago, at least what they'd have classified as a viable "customer" based on credit ratings and income history in, say, 1995. Of course, you can always charge a higher rate of interest to a less credit-worthy customer. How profitable it is! In the short run. But lending money to people who can never pay it back, whether it's a "emerging market" country (read: a country run by unreliable versus a reliable dictatorships) or the Jones' after they've sunk 60% of their monthly take-home into a McMansion, it's still bad business. Is China an emerging market? Tough call. With several thousand years of history, they consider the USA an emerging power, while they've taken a breather for a couple of centuries.

BK
06-26-06, 08:56 AM
Out of control finance is still evident by all the municipal construction projects - because floating a bond is always a SMART move for a Town.
This story caught my eye: North Easton- MA adding on to their Library -the original Library was built between 1878-1882 (the Gilded Age that documented by Mark Twain's book). Of course, the library will built in the style of 1880.
The cost to build is $11 Million - Population of the town is 23,000 - $500 per resident - of course, this will drive operating expenses up.

If more of the Easton Townspeople read the Books in the Library they would understand what followed the Gilded age of the 19th Century was not fun!

1890s was a major Recession/Depressionary period for the United States.

Disclaimer:I Love libraries - I visit a Library 4-5 times per month.

Jim Nickerson
06-26-06, 01:50 PM
Is the storm past? (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=7960C057-9267-46A1-89FA-58C07EFDC086)
June 26, 2006 (MarketWatch)

It's been a rough few weeks, but one seasoned observer is beginning to relax, slightly. Actually, it's two, Pamela and Mary Anne Aden, who publish their Aden Forecast from Costa Rica.

They wrote Friday: "The markets are rebounding ... be it gold, silver. The U.S. stock market, the global markets and currencies ... they are all rising from their sell-off lows, while the dollar and bonds decline. The rises have further to go."

AntiSpin: We're not ready to take a chill pill yet. Mr. Market has a few more surprises. We need to see a lot of finance upside-down to turn right-side up before we call the all-clear. For example, there was a time when a person who failed to pay off a debt was called a "deadbeat." Now that term is applied to persons who pay of their debts. On the flip side of the Monthly Payment Consumer coin is the "I need to make loans no matter what" banker. Of course, this whole mad course of lending is driven by the need for Bank X to make more loans than Bank Y, even if both are running out of credit-worthy borrowers, to maintain growth rates of share prices. They all ran out of customers years ago, at least what they'd have classified as a viable "customer" based on credit ratings and income history in, say, 1995. Of course, you can always charge a higher rate of interest to a less credit-worthy customer. How profitable it is! In the short run. But lending money to people who can never pay it back, whether it's a "emerging market" country (read: a country run by unreliable versus a reliable dictatorships) or the Jones' after they've sunk 60% of their monthly take-home into a McMansion, it's still bad business. Is China an emerging market? Tough call. With several thousand years of history, they consider the USA an emerging power, while they've taken a breather for a couple of centuries.

Chill pill? Perhaps that is an explicit term to everyone but me, but I can only imagine what it may mean, and I won't take more space to conjecture.

I think Brimelow in reporting on the Aden's conveyed their message that they do not think the bear market is equities is over, the Mega bear that they and others feel began in 2000.

I perceive they are saying their opinion is that the equity markets are going to rally from their recent lows "in the weeks ahead." I don't construe that to mean new cyclical bull market highs, but who know.

I have said on these pages before, regarding the recent declines and the 2nd years presidential cycle do not dictate that the equity markets are going straight down from their early May peaks into October. It still seems too frequently expressed that such will happen. Technical indicators at which I look show some sort of a bottom has likely been put in around the 6/13/06 lows. This stuff is not rocket science with regard to precision, but markets tend to demonstrate certain general characteristics technically, moreso at bottoms than at tops within my abilities to try to see these things.

For a short term (4-6-8weeks) period a rise in equity markets seems tenable to me. I had some reasonably sized 200% short positions and I got out of them, sooner than I should have were I capable of absolutely picking bottoms. I am always nervous, but I would be more nervous were I still in those shorts right now.

I do not think anyone should relax one way or another, if that is what "chill pills" implies.

I hate to complain, since I do it all the time perhaps I actually like it, but these little abbreviations people like to use kind of wear on my patience. Hopefully no one is about to die, and with that in mind, I would appreciate a few seconds more of writers' times to write the words for sentiments they think worth conveying. No offense intended toward anyone, just my opinion on the subject.

metalman
06-26-06, 02:18 PM
Chill pill? Perhaps that is an explicit term to everyone but me, but I can only imagine what it may mean, and I won't take more space to conjecture.

I think Brimelow in reporting on the Aden's conveyed their message that they do not think the bear market is equities is over, the Mega bear that they and others feel began in 2000.

I perceive they are saying their opinion is that the equity markets are going to rally from their recent lows "in the weeks ahead." I don't construe that to mean new cyclical bull market highs, but who know.

I have said on these pages before, regarding the recent declines and the 2nd years presidential cycle do not dictate that the equity markets are going straight down from their early May peaks into October. It still seems too frequently expressed that such will happen. Technical indicators at which I look show some sort of a bottom has likely been put in around the 6/13/06 lows. This stuff is not rocket science with regard to precision, but markets tend to demonstrate certain general characteristics technically, moreso at bottoms than at tops within my abilities to try to see these things.

For a short term (4-6-8weeks) period a rise in equity markets seems tenable to me. I had some reasonably sized 200% short positions and I got out of them, sooner than I should have were I capable of absolutely picking bottoms. I am always nervous, but I would be more nervous were I still in those shorts right now.

I do not think anyone should relax one way or another, if that is what "chill pills" implies.

I hate to complain, since I do it all the time perhaps I actually like it, but these little abbreviations people like to use kind of wear on my patience. Hopefully no one is about to die, and with that in mind, I would appreciate a few seconds more of writers' times to write the words for sentiments they think worth conveying. No offense intended toward anyone, just my opinion on the subject.

chill pill
n. Slang
Something that calms nerves or induces relaxation.
Idiom:
take a chill pill
To calm down; relax.

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/chill+pill

jk
06-26-06, 06:25 PM
fwiw ["for what it's worth" - better abbreviated, i think, since the phrase itself isn't worth much] fleckenstein is waiting for a failed "the fed is done/pausing" celebratory rally; volkmar hable, whose work was pointed to by jim, expects a near term rally that will fail and lead to new lows.

i don't think i'm a good enough trader to "play" these short term moves very well, but if the market has a little celebration i'll probably buy more puts. [i only buy puts these days as an expression of bearishness, as i've lost so much over the years with premature shorts]

so maybe a squall has passed.