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View Full Version : Climate Change: Two quilty parties named !



icm63
11-22-09, 11:30 PM
The first guilty party, the SUN (98%): One solar flare or earths minor movement too or away from the sun cause massive climate disruption to earth. The middle ages suffered a cold snap (500 years or so) as earth moved a degree or so further away from the sun.
2474

The second guilty party, Volcanic Eruptions (1.9%): One single volcanic eruption push's so much carbon/dust/etc into the atmosphere that is greater than every single piece of human generated carbon since the dawn of time.
2473

I am for TIDY BACK YARD POLICY, but MAN MADE CLIMATE CHANGE IS A FRAUD !

Raz
11-23-09, 12:14 AM
Are you one of those "retards" who watches Fox News?
Is that where you get this ridiculous information?
You mean you dare to doubt the conclusion of that great "scientific" American - Albert Gore, Jr.? :rolleyes:

Al Gore said the "debate is over". Surely you don't think he could be wrong!

Jay
11-23-09, 12:28 AM
http://vegetarianorganicblog.com/pix/al_gore.jpg

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_IlwcTx9Q628/RpjHtRseVuI/AAAAAAAAA38/GEazQj_wsL8/s400/jabba.jpg

BigLandbaron
11-23-09, 01:18 AM
I can't wait to see how this <160M of files> rolls out politically and how/if the MSM deals with it. If the story can get some traction and momentum, the unfolding political turmoil shall be fascinating to see. :D

After the effects of J6P smoking the green shoots wears off, reality sets in that there are no known drivers of future employment in the USA; high unemployment is the new norm. If anything, that should bring the voters out en masse.

ThePythonicCow
11-23-09, 01:23 AM
Jay -- the second of your two images, the one of Jabba the Hut, is not showing, thanks to hotlink suppression by tripod.com. But that's ok -- it looks much like your first image, the one of Al Gore, Jr. :D

(P.S. -- well, once I directly past that image's URL in my browser to view Jabba, that image is then in my browser cache and this iTulip page shows Jabba in all his glory.)

plinko
11-23-09, 01:30 AM
" News Link to a news story by a credible source "

Is FRED out this weekend or something?

doom&gloom
11-23-09, 02:58 AM
why? got a problem with honesty?

jtabeb
11-23-09, 04:36 AM
http://vegetarianorganicblog.com/pix/al_gore.jpg


http://devan1.tripod.com/Pics/Jabba.jpg


Looks like Larry Summers in that photo!

t12357
11-23-09, 08:58 AM
Jay -- the second of your two images, the one of Jabba the Hut, is not showing, thanks to hotlink suppression by tripod.com. But that's ok -- it looks much like your first image, the one of Al Gore, Jr. :D

(P.S. -- well, once I directly past that image's URL in my browser to view Jabba, that image is then in my browser cache and this iTulip page shows Jabba in all his glory.)

I cannot see the Jabba the Hut image but I thought you were talking about Mr. Gore's image. LOL

ggirod
11-23-09, 08:59 AM
From Raz: The first guilty party, the SUN (98%): One solar flare or earths minor movement too or away from the sun cause massive climate disruption to earth. The middle ages suffered a cold snap (500 years or so) as earth moved a degree or so further away from the sun.Interestingly enough, one of those items contributed. There was an increase in volcanoes during that time. While we have not had any in the last while, big solar flares happen relatively all the time, i.e. several occur in every eleven/twenty two year cycle of sunspots.Also, the Earth's orbit and inclination changes only very slowly, in the range of tens of thousands of years, and signficant changes require even longer. Here is a nice summary of the scientific explanations advanced to explain the Little Ice Age.

From Wikipedia: (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_ice_age)Causes

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/bb/Radiative-forcings.svg/300px-Radiative-forcings.svg.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Radiative-forcings.svg) http://en.wikipedia.org/skins-1.5/common/images/magnify-clip.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Radiative-forcings.svg)
The relative effect of various forcings.


Scientists have tentatively identified four causes of the Little Ice Age: decreased solar activity (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation), increased volcanic activity, internal variability of the climate system, and anthropogenic (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropogenic) influences. One of the difficulties in identifying the causes of the Little Ice Age is the lack of consensus on what constitutes "normal" climate, or if one exists.
Solar activity

Main article: Solar variation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation)
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/73/Carbon-14_with_activity_labels.png/300px-Carbon-14_with_activity_labels.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Carbon-14_with_activity_labels.png) http://en.wikipedia.org/skins-1.5/common/images/magnify-clip.png (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Carbon-14_with_activity_labels.png)
Solar activity events recorded in radiocarbon.


During the period 1645–1715, in the middle of the Little Ice Age, there was a period of low solar activity known as the Maunder Minimum (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum). There is a still very poor understanding of the correlation between low sunspot (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspot) activity and cooling temperatures.<sup id="cite_ref-38" class="reference">[39] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_ice_age#cite_note-38)</sup><sup id="cite_ref-39" class="reference">[40] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_ice_age#cite_note-39)</sup> The Spörer Minimum (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sp%C3%B6rer_Minimum) has also been identified with a significant cooling period near the beginning of the Little Ice Age.<sup class="noprint Template-Fact" title="This claim needs references to reliable sources from March 2009" style="white-space: nowrap;">[citation needed (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed)]</sup> Other indicators of low solar activity during this period are levels of the isotopes carbon-14 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon-14) and beryllium-10 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_core).<sup id="cite_ref-40" class="reference">[41] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_ice_age#cite_note-40)</sup>
Volcanic activity

Throughout the Little Ice Age, the world also experienced heightened volcanic activity.<sup id="cite_ref-41" class="reference">[42] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_ice_age#cite_note-41)</sup> When a volcano (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcano) erupts, its ash reaches high into the atmosphere and can spread to cover the whole Earth. This ash cloud blocks out some of the incoming solar radiation, leading to worldwide cooling that can last up to two years after an eruption. Also emitted by eruptions is sulfur (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sulfur) in the form of SO<sub>2</sub> gas. When this gas reaches the stratosphere (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratosphere), it turns into sulfuric acid (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sulfuric_acid) particles, which reflect the sun's rays, further reducing the amount of radiation reaching Earth's surface. The 1815 eruption of Tambora (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Tambora) in Indonesia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesia) blanketed the atmosphere with ash; the following year, 1816, came to be known as the Year Without a Summer (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer), when frost (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frost) and snow were reported in June and July in both New England (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_England) and Northern Europe.
Ocean Conveyor Shutdown

Another possibility is that there was a slowing of thermohaline circulation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermohaline_circulation),<sup class="noprint Template-Fact" title="This claim needs references to reliable sources from November 2009" style="white-space: nowrap;">[citation needed (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed)]</sup> also known as the "great ocean conveyor" or "meridional overturning circulation". The circulation could have been interrupted by the introduction of a large amount of fresh water to the North Atlantic, possibly caused by a period of warming before the Little Ice Age.<sup class="noprint Template-Fact" title="This claim needs references to reliable sources from November 2009" style="white-space: nowrap;">[citation needed (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Citation_needed)]</sup> There is some concern that shutdown of thermohaline circulation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shutdown_of_thermohaline_circulation) could happen again as a result of the present warming period.
Anthropogenic influences

William Ruddiman (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Ruddiman) has proposed that somewhat reduced populations of Europe, East Asia, and the Middle East during and after the Black Death (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death) caused a decrease in agricultural activity. He suggests reforestation took place, allowing more carbon dioxide uptake from the atmosphere, which may have been a factor in the cooling noted during the Little Ice Age. Ruddiman further hypothesizes that a reduced population in the Americas after European contact in the early 1500s could have had similar effect.<sup id="cite_ref-42" class="reference">[43] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_ice_age#cite_note-42)</sup> A 2008 study of sediment cores and soil samples further suggests that carbon-dioxide uptake via reforestation in the Americas could have contributed to the Little Ice Age.<sup id="cite_ref-43" class="reference">[44] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_ice_age#cite_note-43)</sup>
I learn a bit every time I look around. I hadn't realized that anthropogenic global cooling was considered as a contributor but it does make sense. Probably it cannot be proven with the scanty data at the time but it is most certainly interesting.

My editorial - Stop reading if opinion disturbs you. I try to separate scientific discussion from personal opinion so here comes the change...

It is always tempting to simplify a topic to make it more palatable to the public, to dumb it down, as it were. It is easier to polarize a topic if it has a single simple focus. The favorite polarizer is good people vs bad people. That bipolar domain poisons many an attempt at discussion, particularly the current one. Extending it to groups of people is even more powerful, of course.

Our society seems to have real trouble dealing with nuanced information. In fact, when we look at our most glaring failures to deal with the challenges of our time, you will find well funded special interest bullhorns as a major root cause for our inaction. The rancor and loudness of the polarized opponents completely obscures the quiet, earnest, and urgent attempt by society's learned contributors to present the results of their investigations. Add in the public's lack of understanding or interest in the findings and methods of science, and we face a challenge we may not overcome.
At this point, I think the smart money and smart people should probably bet with the catastrophic global warming outcome and invest/prepare accordingly. Taking reasonable actions to prevent what we can of the mess is not going to show up in quarterly profits or executive bonuses, and what gets rewarded gets done. I would definitely be surprised if any significant prevention occurs.

As an individual in the US, your best bet is to acquire a copy of the NOAA Climate Impacts Report (U.S. Climate Impacts Report - Full Report (http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/full-report)) and read it. That will allow you to see what to expect both in your lifetime and that of your offspring. Probably most useful is the geographical data that show impacts on different areas of the country. You can use that for choosing where to settle, maybe when you read it you can see how you can build preparations and pass them on to your family, etc. You need to look at temperatures, rainfall/water supplies, and diseases as major considerations, IMHO.
For example, if you want, in 2099, to have virtually no climate change, San Francisco is your choice. The ocean breezes etc will keep temperatures relatively cool while the inner portions of the country are cooking. Real estate along the Pacific Coast (probably only within ten to twenty miles, though) should be a good investment and will find sweaty eager buyers from inland locations yearning to be cool in a while ...

Of course, responsible preparations cannot include just the climate considerations. Peak cheap oil will have reared its ugly head by then and probably will be a big surprise to the "Whod'a Thunk!" crowd. Polarized public screaming matches will provide plenty of scapegoats as people suffer. Ditto for challenges in food production as demand increases while energy supplies decrease and, most places, increased climatic challenges present themselves. It is probably a pretty safe bet that people will not be ready for peak cheap oil and its consequences for food production and transportation.
Soon you will realize that you need to face the truly difficult questions, the ones that challenge your assumptions about humanity...

Urban/Rural - Urban settings with well planned infrastructure will be best able to cope with the extraordinary energy consumption of air conditioning and cooling along with shelter, food, and work for the residents. The downside is that getting the city moving to mobilize its wealth and resolve the problems in time is a challenge. There is probably more hope of occasional cities solving their problems than of nations or the world doing the same. Rural settings appeal to the "Rugged Individualist" who fantasizes about making his way in a "Wild West" that no longer exists. The good news with rural settings is that you are in charge of everything. Funny how the bad news is the same.

Technical/Simple - Is the Amish lifestyle for you? Did you read "World Made By Hand" (Kunstler) and find it appealing and exciting? Do you feel empowered by the challenges to find technical solutions that will preserve you and your offspring? Will money buy what you need so you have no worries?

Ethics/Religion - Do you have a moral responsibility to join your neighbors and stay and fight? Do you try your best to get the message out that action is needed now? Do you patiently explain your position over and over to people who excel at talking the points they heard but will not listen? Do you feel like Noah and the showers just got going? Or, have you already realized the futility of that path and are ready to write off those who do not understand?
My choice is to prepare for higher temperatures and the decline in oil while trying persistently to fight alongside our scientists to get the kind of social action that will reduce global warming. Everybody makes a choice. Your choice is...

Jay
11-23-09, 10:59 AM
Jay -- the second of your two images, the one of Jabba the Hut, is not showing, thanks to hotlink suppression by tripod.com. But that's ok -- it looks much like your first image, the one of Al Gore, Jr. :D

(P.S. -- well, once I directly past that image's URL in my browser to view Jabba, that image is then in my browser cache and this iTulip page shows Jabba in all his glory.)
What do I do to fix it, computer sage?! I have this glowing screen in front of me and all these buttons on the keyboard. What do I do, hit it like Fonze? :D


Edit: Is it working now?

c1ue
11-23-09, 11:54 AM
As an individual in the US, your best bet is to acquire a copy of the NOAA Climate Impacts Report (U.S. Climate Impacts Report - Full Report (http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/full-report)) and read it.


Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5°F. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 10°F.

There has already been considerable documentation on how both of the above statements are incorrect.

Furthermore the 'forcing' which leads to the last statement has still yet to be proven or even demonstrated in any situation.

Lastly the projections don't even work now - the temperatures projected for the past 8-10 years are significantly higher than what has actually happened.

So what exactly is the point of reading a report based on a premise both flawed in the past 8-10 years and unproven/undemonstrated?

Lastly looking at the author team - several names popped out immediately:

Ben Santer
Jonathan Overpeck

I've spent too much time already whacking the WCP - someone else can perhaps do a similar breakdown on the author team for this report; its links to the CRU emails and IPCC

ThePythonicCow
11-23-09, 02:02 PM
What do I do to fix it, computer sage?! I have this glowing screen in front of me and all these buttons on the keyboard. What do I do, hit it like Fonze? :D


Edit: Is it working now?
It only works if you already have that Jabba image in your web browsers cache.

The fix is to not hotlink to images off tripod.com. Try a google image search for 'jabba the hut' and choose some other lucky image to link to.

Image webservers (any webserver, actually) can tell when a request for an image comes in whether the request is from an embedded IMG link, and if so, where the parent page containing that IMG link came from. Servers such as tripod.com routinely offer up little ads for their site, rather than the desired image, when they see an IMG link come from some site other than their own.

SuitablyIronic
11-23-09, 02:09 PM
I'm voting for the quilty party next elections for sure. The next cool change will need massive investment in quilts, and we will be there to make big dollars from the unexpected lack of warming!

doom&gloom
11-23-09, 05:00 PM
okay, so lets just save a ton of money on this whole Glow-ball Warming crap, force some volcano to blow sky high and cool the earth off for the next few decades. Problem solved.

Oh. I forget. Government won;t be able to fleece the populace for more money, the giant vampire squid won't be able to get it's cut, and losts of 'climate scientists' would end up unemployed.

Nevermind.