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Rajiv
11-09-09, 08:47 PM
Finite Resources: One Possible Explanation for the Financial Crisis

This is a slide video of the presentation given by Gail Tverberg at the Oil Drum/ASPO Conference at Alcatraz, Italy in June 2009.




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friendly_jacek
12-13-09, 01:47 AM
Absolutely agree with the assumption that rapid rise of oil price precipitated the credit crunch and market crash. The economy self-balances by negative feedbacks, and commodities is a major force that can stimulate (when cheap) or inhibit (when expensive). Steven Leeb explained a simple rule in his book in 2003 that doubling oil in the trailing 12 months invariably brings a recession. Interestingly, Leeb abandoned his rule in 2008 and failed to predict the crash even though oil doubled from June 2007 to June 2008.
Now we are witnessing another doubling from the the low in Dec 2008 to now. I believe oil and commodities have one more short (but perhaps dramatic) chance of striking up before falling back to earth again.
The peak oil problem will produce high (and increasing) frequency of credit busts followed by attempts to reflate by CB.
Or series of KaPooms in EJ terminology.