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Slimprofits
09-25-09, 01:47 PM
Oil traded down over a two period this week to $65 and is back over $66 today.

Where do you stand?

Slimprofits
09-25-09, 01:53 PM
my viewpoint is that it's a window of opportunity.

And very late last night, I just knew that Goldman would step in and try slam it shut. a few hours later:


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125388707268741009.html

Goldman Raises Oil Demand Forecast

Analysts at Goldman Sachs on Friday raised their forecasts for global oil demand for the fourth quarter of 2009 and for 2010 by 1.2 million barrels a day and 1.6 million barrels a day, respectively.

"The permanent damage from the credit crisis is much less than we had previously thought, which means that we are beginning the recovery from a higher base," wrote Jeffrey Currie and other Goldman analysts in a research note.

At the same time, Goldman maintained its price forecasts, saying that higher anticipated demand has been met by stronger supply, particularly out of Russia and the rest of the former Soviet Union.

As a result, Goldman raised its global supply forecasts by an amount similar to its global demand forecast. Goldman kept its end-of-year target for benchmark crude prices at $85 a barrel, along with an average 2010 price forecast of $90 a barrel and its end-of-2010 target of $95 a barrel.

Jim Nickerson
09-25-09, 08:08 PM
Hey babbitd,

First, I appreciate all the news items you put up, with as I recall intelligble titling that directs the reader to either click or ignore, based on one's interests. Contrast that to all the bullshit titling we get that tell nothing serious about what one will find if one is perhaps bored enough to click on the link.

Here is a technical look from Carl Swenson posted today in which he guesses at a USO range between 20 and 40.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/090925_uso.html

*T*
09-25-09, 08:40 PM
Oil traded down over a two period this week to $65 and is back over $66 today.

Where do you stand?

Will hit $20 before $200.

metalman
09-25-09, 10:58 PM
Will hit $20 before $200.

if oil $20 then...

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_p3kRlBIvMm8/SHfVWQAXFgI/AAAAAAAAAFU/zvXyBfF68aQ/s400/great%2Bdepression%2Bsoup%2Bline%2Bfor%2Bchildren. jpg

http://www.itulip.com/images/soupline.gif

GRG55
09-26-09, 01:10 AM
Will hit $20 before $200.

You're on...;)

cobben
09-26-09, 10:06 AM
"a USO range between 20 and 40."

I tend to like that view also, the joker being as usual "unless something happens".

Here I'm currently more worried about currency events than geopolitical ones, though the one can morph into the other if things get out of hand of course.

Kadriana
09-26-09, 10:09 AM
I think it's going to get down to $55-$60 before going nuts in the spring.

Slimprofits
09-26-09, 09:53 PM
Hey babbitd,

First, I appreciate all the news items you put up, with as I recall intelligble titling that directs the reader to either click or ignore, based on one's interests. Contrast that to all the bullshit titling we get that tell nothing serious about what one will find if one is perhaps bored enough to click on the link.

Here is a technical look from Carl Swenson posted today in which he guesses at a USO range between 20 and 40.

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/090925_uso.html

Jim, as far as I can tell, oil futures traded down this week for two reasons. (A) Wednesday analysts predictions for oil supply were way off and (B) USDX traded down a little bit after the Fed's 10 am press release.


Maybe I should have added another option to the poll.

(E) Oil trades down this winter only if stock markets crash again...

Slimprofits
09-26-09, 10:04 PM
Will hit $20 before $200.

If you had offered $33 or so on the low end, I'd have to seriously consider it.

Do you also think USDX will head back up to hit 100 before it hits 65 too?

*T*
09-27-09, 10:22 AM
If you had offered $33 or so on the low end, I'd have to seriously consider it.

Do you also think USDX will head back up to hit 100 before it hits 65 too?

No. I'm aware this is a contradictory position.

$20 is a bit tongue in cheek, said to make the point that it will go lower before making new highs. $35 would be a serious suggestion. And would form a nice double bottom.

bill
09-27-09, 11:45 AM
Lower Oil ,,,Ha Ha Ha
not with policy like this

http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersComService4/idUSTRE58N72R20090924


PITTSBURGH (Reuters) - Group of 20 (http://www.itulip.com/news/globalcoverage/G20) leaders are working to seal an agreement on phasing out subsidies for fossil fuels at their Pittsburgh summit but with no fixed date for the change, G20 (http://www.itulip.com/news/globalcoverage/G20) officials said.
Many G20 (http://www.itulip.com/news/globalcoverage/G20) government give tax breaks and direct payments to companies that help them produce coal, oil and other fossil fuels that cause greenhouse gases blamed for global warming. The subsidies account for tens of billions of dollars alone in the United States.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner (http://www.reuters.com/news/topics/timothyGeithner) said as President Barack Obama (http://www.reuters.com/news/globalcoverage/barackobama) arrived for the two-day summit that a consensus was building around phasing out the subsidies over time.
"I can say today based on the important work of countries around the table, we're seeing a lot of support for that proposal and we think this will have a dramatic impact on our collective effort to reduce carbon emissions," Geithner told reporters.
The United States and the European Union have pressed developing economies such as China, India and Russia to stop subsidizing fossil fuels, saying such a move would help a global push to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.

Detail Policy
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/34/14/42945466.pdf

metalman
09-27-09, 10:23 PM
didn't we run an oil price poll last year? wish i could find it to see how well we did.

cjppjc
09-27-09, 11:25 PM
didn't we run an oil price poll last year? wish i could find it to see how well we did.


I was just thinking as I viewed the results, has anybody bothered to see how accurate the iTulip readers predictions are? And I was going to ask that question.

So has anybody ......... ?

Slimprofits
10-21-09, 02:19 PM
As we approach $82, can I get an AMEN?

goadam1
10-21-09, 03:31 PM
Another winner for the herd at itulip. I voted none of the above because I have no idea.

http://rebelindustries.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/herd_of_sheep_311px1.gif

kartius919
10-21-09, 08:13 PM
Why the insults? Absurd to call the results of a poll with 31 votes that of a herd.

goadam1
10-21-09, 11:30 PM
Why the insults? Absurd to call the results of a poll with 31 votes that of a herd.

because in the polls I've seen, we have been wrong. And I was mocking "us" not "you."

And my market calls are terrible.

kartius919
10-22-09, 01:24 AM
I understand your frustration. I have made several mistakes this year and then kept waiting for a pull back in gold, but nope. So I'm done waiting. Back to old strategy of accumulating and moving almost all assets into gold. I have lost faith in US markets. I am too paranoid over the possibility of a Caribbean hedge fund going belly up and then realizing all those paper stocks were just electronic marks on the screen.