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View Full Version : Currency deflation, gold, and iTulip.com



FRED
09-04-09, 01:42 AM
Would you still be here if iTulip.com was wrong and, after the credit collapse of 2008, monetary and general price deflation set in and gold fell to $200 as the deflation forecasters predicted?

Down Under
09-04-09, 01:49 AM
Would you still be here if iTulip.com was wrong and, after the credit collapse of 2008, monetary and general price deflation set in and gold fell to $200 as the deflation forecasters predicted?

I'd still hang around but your credibility would be shot, surely. I don't really understand the purpose of this poll.

FRED
09-04-09, 01:55 AM
I'd still hang around but your credibility would be shot, surely. I don't really understand the purpose of this poll.

Because some members may otherwise forget that there are 1000 ways to forecast incorrectly but only one way to forecast correctly.

In the coming years it will be increasingly important to distinguish between luck and process.

cjppjc
09-04-09, 02:02 AM
I don't understand choice #3.

Did you mean inflation?

Down Under
09-04-09, 02:07 AM
In the coming years it will be increasingly important to distinguish between luck and process.

And you expect this poll to highlight that distinction. I must be thick, but I fail to see how that'll be achieved, from this poll.

As far as I'm concerned, your track record to date is all I need. No luck about it. Not only the big calls but the timing; very, very impressive.

D-Mack
09-04-09, 04:23 AM
Why is MISH advocating gold if it's going to fall to 200?

Chris
09-04-09, 04:49 AM
Why is MISH advocating gold if it's going to fall to 200?

Because everyone else is? (except the FED)

rabot10
09-04-09, 08:43 AM
I would be dressed in my fully camouflaged all weather outfit, with my recently acquired AR-15 with an Eotec 557 red dot and a 4X magnifier across my chest, two side arms and a back pack full of freeze dried chicken – and I would be looking for you!

j/k

jpatter666
09-04-09, 09:02 AM
Well, I signed up for two years, so kind of irrelevant to me. :p

But, EJ has consistently been an amazingly sharp and accurate forecaster. If for various reasons, the PM calls began to fail in such a spectacular fashion, I'd expect several things to happen:

1 ) It's likely such an event would be a "black swan" in some form. EJ is almost, but not quite, omniscient ;). I'd expect some sort of emergency posting stating -- the rules of the game have changed. If anyone is going to recognize that this has occurred, I'd hope it would be EJ and iTulip.
2 ) The vast range of extremely knowledgeable people on the site (bart, finster, grg55, etc, etc, etc) give me additional confidence on the call if such a sea change is needed.
3 ) If for some reason the *fundamentals* of the iTulip thesis were proven wrong -- well, we find out what was wrong and work from there. Theories work until they don't -- none of this was handed down on stone tablets.

Now for the REAL problem.

Who'd be willing to tell jtabeb? :rolleyes:

jiimbergin
09-04-09, 09:09 AM
But, EJ has consistently been an amazingly sharp and accurate forecaster. If for various reasons, the PM calls began to fail in such a spectacular fashion, I'd expect several things to happen:

1 ) It's likely such an event would be a "black swan" in some form. EJ is almost, but not quite, omniscient ;). I'd expect some sort of emergency posting stating -- the rules of the game have changed. If anyone is going to recognize that this has occurred, I'd hope it would be EJ and iTulip.
2 ) The vast range of extremely knowledgeable people on the site (bart, finster, grg55, etc, etc, etc) give me additional confidence on the call if such a sea change is needed.
3 ) If for some reason the *fundamentals* of the iTulip thesis were proven wrong -- well, we find out what was wrong and work from there. Theories work until they don't -- none of this was handed down on stone tablets.

Now for the REAL problem.

Who'd be willing to tell jtabeb? :rolleyes:

AMEN! But I would not volunteer to tell jtabeb:eek:

goadam1
09-04-09, 09:30 AM
I'm going to tell my wife how funny this thread is. Then she is going to trow my computer out the window for mentioning itulip again.

Gold can fo to $200 if the dow goes to 100.

I think the hint is that gold could bounce down off any price pre crash levels summer2007) seems an easy number to hit. But I thnk we have seen that any push up will be wobbly until it suddenly isn't.

Well, I signed up for two years, so kind of irrelevant to me. :p

But, EJ has consistently been an amazingly sharp and accurate forecaster. If for various reasons, the PM calls began to fail in such a spectacular fashion, I'd expect several things to happen:

1 ) It's likely such an event would be a "black swan" in some form. EJ is almost, but not quite, omniscient ;). I'd expect some sort of emergency posting stating -- the rules of the game have changed. If anyone is going to recognize that this has occurred, I'd hope it would be EJ and iTulip.
2 ) The vast range of extremely knowledgeable people on the site (bart, finster, grg55, etc, etc, etc) give me additional confidence on the call if such a sea change is needed.
3 ) If for some reason the *fundamentals* of the iTulip thesis were proven wrong -- well, we find out what was wrong and work from there. Theories work until they don't -- none of this was handed down on stone tablets.

Now for the REAL problem.

Who'd be willing to tell jtabeb? :rolleyes:

ThePythonicCow
09-04-09, 10:46 AM
The poll mixes some things together, such as:


My explanations for what is happening.
EJ's explanations (via his 'process') for what is happening.
Whether the discussion on iTulip continues to help my understanding.
The dollar denominated price of gold.
Whether the economy is a major topic of interest to me.

I'll likely be here if [3] and [5] still apply, that is if I'm still thinking about the economy and the discussions on iTulip help my thinking.

If EJ widely misses the mark on some specific major call, such as the dollar denominated price of gold, then the way in which he handles this miss will likely influence [3] the quality of discussion here. If, as seems quite unlikely at present, this drove EJ to become rigid, hostile, and defensive, that would almost certainly kill the value of iTulip for me. If he keeps his footing, in heart, mind and soul, then that could be quite promising, quite interesting, and bode well for the continuing value of iTulip to me.

None of the few choices presented in the poll fit my response, so I did not respond to the poll.

sn1p3r
09-04-09, 11:57 AM
I did not respond either as I think that if gold hit $200 I would run out of tinfoil trying to make a bigger hat and would eagerly search out posts containing 'gold, manipulation' :)

But I wouldn't do any of this until after I had sold everything I don't need and bought some CHEAP gold :)

FRED
09-04-09, 12:09 PM
By now it should be obvious that this poll is tongue in cheek.

Of course iTulip.com readers noticed that we did not experience a crushing deflation in 2009 as deflation forecasters such as Mike Shedlock and Rick Ackerman forecast.

If we made that kind of mistake we'd put long hours into trying to figure out where we went wrong with our analysis to explain it to our readers, to try to learn from it as we have from the errors we have made over the years, such as in 2001 when we underestimated the Fed's willingness and ability to inflate a housing bubble. Took us until August 2002 to acknowledge that in fact the Fed was perusing a mad policy of national housing price inflation.

Nor did not offer a bizarre, self-contradictory analysis as some did of general price deflation, falling commodity prices, and rising gold prices.

Our forecast was for asset price deflation and commodity price inflation resulting from government efforts to re-inflate asset prices.

The vast majority of you said that it we were as wrong as the deflationists have been, you'd leave iTulip.com. We think that's fair.

Now I'll close the poll. Thanks for your feedback.

GRG55
09-04-09, 12:37 PM
Now that gold is again closing in on US $1000, and getting the attention of the financial media [who love round numbers], the popular question of the day is "Will Gold Rally Last".

How predictable...:p

jtabeb
09-04-09, 06:58 PM
Now that gold is again closing in on US $1000, and getting the attention of the financial media [who love round numbers], the popular question of the day is "Will Gold Rally Last".

How predictable...:p


If you read a history of hyper-inflation in france, you learn that assets eventually go-up, unemployment always goes up, food goes up, wages never go up (in real terms).

I don't see a damn bit of difference in concept. The details may differ (gov bonds vs Confiscated church property), but in terms of the mechanism, Identical.

goadam1
09-04-09, 10:02 PM
Ej's and your perspective is the tent pole of itulip. But the regular crowd here makes it like a pleasant cocktail party of people who share interest in economics, politics and such. I hope the party continues.

But it's not forecasting I would expect. It would be analysis that at least seems correct. It's honest course correction to the events, not bending reality to fit a thesis that I hope to find here.


By now it should be obvious that this poll is tongue in cheek.

Of course iTulip.com readers noticed that we did not experience a crushing deflation in 2009 as deflation forecasters such as Mike Shedlock and Rick Ackerman forecast.

If we made that kind of mistake we'd put long hours into trying to figure out where we went wrong with our analysis to explain it to our readers, to try to learn from it as we have from the errors we have made over the years, such as in 2001 when we underestimated the Fed's willingness and ability to inflate a housing bubble. Took us until August 2002 to acknowledge that in fact the Fed was perusing a mad policy of national housing price inflation.

Nor did not offer a bizarre, self-contradictory analysis as some did of general price deflation, falling commodity prices, and rising gold prices.

Our forecast was for asset price deflation and commodity price inflation resulting from government efforts to re-inflate asset prices.

The vast majority of you said that it we were as wrong as the deflationists have been, you'd leave iTulip.com. We think that's fair.

Now I'll close the poll. Thanks for your feedback.

Jay
09-04-09, 11:36 PM
The only way gold goes to 200$ is if we invent the next printing press or internet and the world economy grows gangbusters: teleportation?

If we get a deflation spiral, that means unemployment is likely well over 20% and there is civil unrest to such an extent that the premium on gold as a hedge for instability is well above 200$. There would be fires in the streets.

The spiral is not happening, inflation is too politically tasty. Aren't we all enjoying our transient cash-for-clunkers bump? Ummm green shoots good. The hangover sucks though, just ask France in the 1780's. Inefficient use of capital is a bitch when the economy is in freefall.

Finster
09-23-09, 11:17 PM
Would you still be here if iTulip.com was wrong and, after the credit collapse of 2008, monetary and general price deflation set in and gold fell to $200 as the deflation forecasters predicted?

Trick question!

Gold will never, ever trade with a 2-handle again.

Not unless it has three digits after it...