Recession probability virtually 100%

[bart]

The chances of a recession have recently reached virtually 100%.

The 10 year T-Bond minus the 3 month T-Bill rate (TNX minus IRX), combined with the annual change rate of the CPI adjusted monetary base, has correctly predicted 7 out of the last 7 recessions. When both drop below zero, it's in the bag.

The only question remaining is the official pronouncement of when it started or starts.


http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/predict_recession.png

[Sapiens]

Awesome chart Bart!!!

Take a look at this:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/HOUST1F_Max_630_378.png

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/charts/customchart/?series_id=HSN1F&fred_user_graph_id=&fred_user_graph_category_id=&ct=&pt=&cs=Large&crb=on&cf=lin&range=Max&cosd=1963-01-01&coed=2007-02-01&asids=+%3CEnter+Series+ID%3E

Can you tell where we are heading? Yes, it's rhetorical.

[bart]

Awesome chart Bart!!!

Take a look at this:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/HOUST1F_Max_630_378.png

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/charts/customchart/?series_id=HSN1F&fred_user_graph_id=&fred_user_graph_category_id=&ct=&pt=&cs=Large&crb=on&cf=lin&range=Max&cosd=1963-01-01&coed=2007-02-01&asids=+%3CEnter+Series+ID%3E




Thanks, and nice pickup and use of the Fed's FRED database and it's new abilities too.
One of the interesting parts to me is how far away we still are from the "return to the mean". Just eyeballing it makes me think we're only between 1/2 and 2/3 the way there.






Can you tell where we are heading? Yes, it's rhetorical.

I move that we suggest that this should be the new and improved Wall St and Fed symbol:

http://www.nowandfutures.com/grins/ostrich_head_buried.gif





(edit/add - just noticed that ShopperTrak reported a -2.7% on March retail sales when compared to March last year - before any inflation adjustment. Source (http://www.shoppertrak.com/news_retail_sales_040307.php))

[Tet]

Awesome chart Bart!!!

Take a look at this:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/HOUST1F_Max_630_378.png

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/charts/customchart/?series_id=HSN1F&fred_user_graph_id=&fred_user_graph_category_id=&ct=&pt=&cs=Large&crb=on&cf=lin&range=Max&cosd=1963-01-01&coed=2007-02-01&asids=+%3CEnter+Series+ID%3E

Can you tell where we are heading? Yes, it's rhetorical.
The real beauty of recessions is they don't get called until they are almost over.

[WDCRob]

(edit/add - just noticed that ShopperTrak reported a -2.7% on March retail sales when compared to March last year - before any inflation adjustment. Source (http://www.shoppertrak.com/news_retail_sales_040307.php))

What's the drop if you add in the FDI/SSCPI adjustement?

[bart]

What's the drop if you add in the FDI/SSCPI adjustement?

I vaguely recall Fin saying that the FDI is around 6% now and the SGS CPI is around 9%, so between -9% and -12%.

Do keep in mind that right now could actually be close to the "real" bottom of the recession...