Chicago’s Civil Unrest and the Bad Economy - Janet Tavakoli

[FRED]

http://www.itulip.com/images/chicagocivilunrest300.jpgChicago’s Civil Unrest and the Bad Economy - Janet Tavakoli

TSF – August 18, 2009

by Janet Tavakoli (http://www.tavakolistructuredfinance.com/janettavakoli.html), president of Tavakoli Structured Finance (http://www.tavakolistructuredfinance.com/index.html)

Chicago is beautiful in the summer for lucky people like me. It offers outdoor symphony concerts, boat trips on the lake, bike outings, outdoor festivals, art fairs, hiking and more. But the picture would not be complete if I didn’t mention that I believe the city budget is running out of money, and crime is on the rise. I believe this increased violence is related to the economy, and it is not mere crime, it is civil unrest.

Chicago news shows have provided little coverage up until now; but at least one community—Chicago’s Uptown area—is forcing the issue. This video was shot by a frightened citizen during recent gang violence at Leland and Sheridan, a neighborhood in the process of gentrifying:

Gang brawl video spurs dueling protests in Uptown (http://www.chicagobreakingnews.com/2009/08/gang-brawl-video-spurs-dueling-protests-in-uptown.html)

Chicago has a high crime rate as cities in the U.S. go, but this is unusual activity. Mayor Daley desperately wants the Olympics in Chicago, so I am guessing the budget is constraining added security and community intervention efforts.

In the upscale Lincoln Park area, just a little further south of this unrest, men alone at night have been accosted by groups of three to six men and severely beaten, robbed, and hospitalized this summer. This news account of seven muggings is from a five-day period from July 30 to August 4:

Muggings in Lakeview, Lincoln Park rise to 7 (http://www.chicagobreakingnews.com/2009/08/man-fights-off-attackers-in-lincoln-park.html)

This activity is also unusual for Chicago, at least it was until very recently. Almost all of these men were attacked from behind and could not identify their attackers. This crime is now commonplace at night in this prosperous neighborhood.

Scenes like this are being replayed in other Chicago neighborhoods, too. Unfortunately, this type of crime is more commonplace in those areas and doesn’t get as much new media attention.

Money Market Funds’ Sneaking Up From Behind

Money market investors may also want to take care to avoid becoming the victims of an accidental financial mugging. Many mutual funds (Vanguard for example this July) closed or merged their short term treasury money market funds and closed them to new investors. T-Bill effective yields apparently don’t cover even the lowest fees. Government guarantees for other short-term money market funds that invest in CDs and commercial paper only extend to the balance at the time the guarantees went into place—not to new money coming in from liquidations. Investors should take note that the guarantees expire in September (but may be renewed), and may not cover their entire balance. Investors may want to park excess cash in T-Bills.

I hope I am wrong in being pessimistic about a market rout in the early Fall, even if the news and anxiety level of everyone I talk to is off the charts again. Analyst Abby Joseph Cohen of Goldman Sachs says the U.S. recession is ending “right now” <http: www.bloomberg.com="" apps="" news?pid="newsarchive&sid=a0sLU2hOmYZ0"> –‘cause she said so, dammit! </http:>
<http: www.bloomberg.com="" apps="" news?pid="newsarchive&sid=a0sLU2hOmYZ0"></http:>
<http: www.bloomberg.com="" apps="" news?pid="newsarchive&sid=a0sLU2hOmYZ0">Bill O’Neill <http: www.bloomberg.com="" apps="" news?pid="20670001&sid=a2uO_7JZXfsI"> of Merrill Lynch Global Wealth Management ($1.1 trillion in assets) in London says we have lots to be optimistic about in the second half of the year—‘cause big bonuses are back on Wall Street, double dammit! </http:></http:>
<http: www.bloomberg.com="" apps="" news?pid="newsarchive&sid=a0sLU2hOmYZ0"><http: www.bloomberg.com="" apps="" news?pid="20670001&sid=a2uO_7JZXfsI"></http:></http:>
<http: www.bloomberg.com="" apps="" news?pid="newsarchive&sid=a0sLU2hOmYZ0"><http: www.bloomberg.com="" apps="" news?pid="20670001&sid=a2uO_7JZXfsI">Whatever their motives, I like their stories better than mine. Let’s hope their tales can manufacture increased demand, new jobs, and demand-related profits out of thin air. Of course, in any economy, including a recession, there are opportunities, but that is a different story.</http:></http:>
<http: www.bloomberg.com="" apps="" news?pid="newsarchive&sid=a0sLU2hOmYZ0"><http: www.bloomberg.com="" apps="" news?pid="20670001&sid=a2uO_7JZXfsI"> </http:></http:>
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<http: www.bloomberg.com="" apps="" news?pid="newsarchive&sid=a0sLU2hOmYZ0"><http: www.bloomberg.com="" apps="" news?pid="20670001&sid=a2uO_7JZXfsI"> </http:></http:>
<http: www.bloomberg.com="" apps="" news?pid="newsarchive&sid=a0sLU2hOmYZ0"><http: www.bloomberg.com="" apps="" news?pid="20670001&sid=a2uO_7JZXfsI"> </http:></http:>
<http: www.bloomberg.com="" apps="" news?pid="newsarchive&sid=a0sLU2hOmYZ0"><http: www.bloomberg.com="" apps="" news?pid="20670001&sid=a2uO_7JZXfsI"> </http:></http:>Janet Tavakoli (http://www.tavakolistructuredfinance.com/janettavakoli.html) is the president of Tavakoli Structured Finance, a Chicago-based firm that provides consulting to financial institutions and institutional investors. Ms. Tavakoli has more than 20 years of experience in senior investment banking positions, trading, structuring and marketing structured financial products. She is a former adjunct professor of derivatives at the University of Chicago's Graduate School of Business. She is the author of: Credit Derivatives & Synthetic Structures (http://www.amazon.com/Credit-Derivatives-Synthetic-Structures-Applications/dp/047141266X/ref=pd_bbs_sr_3?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1222815072&sr=8-3) (John Wiley & Sons, 1998, 2001), Structured Finance & Collateralized Debt Obligations (http://www.amazon.com/Structured-Finance-Collateralized-Debt-Obligations/dp/0470288949/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1222815104&sr=1-1) (John Wiley & Sons, 2008), and Dear Mr. Buffett: What An Investor Learns 1,269 Miles From Wall Street (http://www.amazon.com/Dear-Mr-Buffett-Investor-Learns/dp/047040678X/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1222815135&sr=1-1) (John Wiley & Sons January 2009)

iTulip Select (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1032): The Investment Thesis for the Next Cycle™
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[World Traveler]

I linked to the Chicago articles...crimes took place less than a mile from where I grew up.

Very interesting. This part of Chicago has been heavily gentrified in last 25 years, it's close to the "L" (elevated trains) and lots of good bus service. My parents bought a house in the northern Lakeview district in 1959 for $20,000, now single family homes on my old block sell for $400,000 to $500,00 (old houses, built in early 1900's). Plus there'e been a lot of tear-downs, demolish 2 old houses, combines the lots, build a condo complex and sell each 1200-1400 sq ft condo for $250,000 - $275,000.

Not the kind of area where you'd expect a break-out of serious street crime. This part of Chicago (north side, within 2 miles of the lake) is now very popular with yuppies, and has lots of new business that cater to yuppies.

[jtabeb]

I linked to the Chicago articles...crimes took place less than a mile from where I grew up.

Very interesting. This part of Chicago has been heavily gentrified in last 25 years, it's close to the "L" (elevated trains) and lots of good bus service. My parents bought a house in the northern Lakeview district in 1959 for $20,000, now single family homes on my old block sell for $400,000 to $500,00 (old houses, built in early 1900's). Plus there'e been a lot of tear-downs, demolish 2 old houses, combines the lots, build a condo complex and sell each 1200-1400 sq ft condo for $250,000 - $275,000.

Not the kind of area where you'd expect a break-out of serious street crime. This part of Chicago (north side, within 2 miles of the lake) is now very popular with yuppies, and has lots of new business that cater to yuppies.

In Argentina, It's all about the elevation.

[Chief Tomahawk]

I think Janet has overlooked something: After 18 seasons, "The Jerry Springer Show"[:eek:] has left Chicago for New York. Surely the lost production staff jobs and positions for Springer security personnel have turned folks of questionable character out onto the street, where, no doubt, they are continuing what they know best. [I guess The Springer Closing Remark for each show hasn't stuck?:p]

On the Olympics, why not broaden the bid to include several Midwest cities and college campuses, with Chicago as the site for the Opening and Closing Ceremonies? This would reduce buildout costs as exisiting facilities in Milwaukee, Indianapolis, Detroit, etc. would be used in addition to various Big Ten college campuses if the games were held in August while students are away. Distance running and bicycling events could make use of northern Wisconsin and/or the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, certainly preferable to the heat and humidity of Illinois. And the Great Lakes (hey, it could be called "The Great Lakes' Olympics"!!!) certainly could host a plethora of waterborne sports. Such a strategy could help keep event ticket prices sane, and even lure more locals to non-traditional events should they be priced minimally. But alas, such thinking [:)]probably lines up for a 'Springer beatdown' [:mad:] for being disloyal to the hometown...

[Milton Kuo]

I hope I am wrong in being pessimistic about a market rout in the early Fall, even if the news and anxiety level of everyone I talk to is off the charts again.

With respect to the market rout she anticipates, Janet has evidently put her money where her mouth is. Zero Hedge posted an article on August 17 where Janet writes that she is moving her personal portfolio to cash. Key passages from the article, Janet Tavakoli "Talks Her Book" And Cashes Out (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/janet-tavakoli-talks-her-book-and-cashes-out):


I just went to (almost) 100% cash in my favorite hedge fund, my personal portfolio. I do not give investment advice, and I rarely discuss my personal portfolio (except with a select few friends), but I am happy to share my thinking on this decision.

...

I expect a huge downdraft in prices in the next couple of months, which may (or may not) create another buying opportunity.

[Sapiens]

The US city of Patterson is considering imposing a curfew on all it residents in an attempt to combat spiralling crime. (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/6056600/US-city-plans-curfew-to-combat-rising-crime.html)


NEW YORK, NY August 19, 2009 —In Newark, Mayor Cory Booker and Police Director Garry McCarthy are launching an effort to get residents to help tamp down a surge in violence. (http://www.wnyc.org/news/articles/139023)


Iowa City Council to impose a curfew (http://www.press-citizen.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090818/OPINION03/908180302)

Also for kiddie crime:


City of Atlanta passes new daytime curfew for kids (http://www.examiner.com/x-3958-Atlanta-Northside-Family--Parenting-Examiner~y2009m8d19-City-of-Atlanta-passes-new-daytime-curfew-for-kids)


Dallas police to begin enforcement of daytime juvenile curfew (http://crimeblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2009/08/dallas-police-to-begin-enforce.html)

[flintlock]

The US city of Patterson is considering imposing a curfew on all it residents in an attempt to combat spiralling crime. (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/6056600/US-city-plans-curfew-to-combat-rising-crime.html)


NEW YORK, NY August 19, 2009 —In Newark, Mayor Cory Booker and Police Director Garry McCarthy are launching an effort to get residents to help tamp down a surge in violence. (http://www.wnyc.org/news/articles/139023)


Iowa City Council to impose a curfew (http://www.press-citizen.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20090818/OPINION03/908180302)

Also for kiddie crime:


City of Atlanta passes new daytime curfew for kids (http://www.examiner.com/x-3958-Atlanta-Northside-Family--Parenting-Examiner%7Ey2009m8d19-City-of-Atlanta-passes-new-daytime-curfew-for-kids)


Dallas police to begin enforcement of daytime juvenile curfew (http://crimeblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2009/08/dallas-police-to-begin-enforce.html)

The "kiddies" in Atlanta are becoming down right scary.

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/20458751/detail.html

[cjppjc]

I linked to the Chicago articles...crimes took place less than a mile from where I grew up.

Very interesting. This part of Chicago has been heavily gentrified in last 25 years, it's close to the "L" (elevated trains) and lots of good bus service. My parents bought a house in the northern Lakeview district in 1959 for $20,000, now single family homes on my old block sell for $400,000 to $500,00 (old houses, built in early 1900's). Plus there'e been a lot of tear-downs, demolish 2 old houses, combines the lots, build a condo complex and sell each 1200-1400 sq ft condo for $250,000 - $275,000.

Not the kind of area where you'd expect a break-out of serious street crime. This part of Chicago (north side, within 2 miles of the lake) is now very popular with yuppies, and has lots of new business that cater to yuppies.

I spent some time in Chicago. Originally Belmont and Lakeshore Drive. Then 4100 North. Both areas have changed alot in 20 - 30 years. Duh. No kidding.

I grew up in NYC. For some reason I never felt comfortable in Chicago at night. New York yes. On my last visit about 3 years ago, I saw lots of rehabs. Turning the buildings into condos. Wonder how those prices are holding up.

[World Traveler]

I myself cannot believe how the north side has changed since I moved to Texas in mid-1970's. Particularly around Wrigley field (Cubs Park), Broadway Ave, and Halsted St., since I used to walk those areas during the daytime (worked in area during college years), but never at night, because they were kind of slummy and dangerous. During my youth, those areas behind Lake Shore Dr were going down, down. Then came the gentrification. Now that area is hot, hot and expensive.

I saw a TV show about a young Yuppie couple recently who wanted to buy a condo between Wrigley field and Southport Ave, which now has a lot of nice business catering to young professionals. I worked at a factory during summers in my high school years (mid-1960's) on Southport Ave and it was a pretty run-down street at the time. Couple ended paying $310,000 for a condo in Lakeview area near Southport Ave. Unbelievable.

I grew up near Ashland and Irving (1600 W, 4000 N). That area was then middle middle class, not posh like Lake Shore Dr or run-down like some of the area between us and Lake Shore Dr. My parents stayed in that house till 1997, so I saw the unfolding gentrification over the years.

I honestly believe there were 2 main reasons it changed so drastically.

1. Excellent public transportation system. This part of town was built before car era, and has 2 main "L" lines that run through it. There's a "L" stop on Southport Ave, for example. Also, good, dependable bus system in this part of town. So if you work downtown, it's a great place to live.

2. Changing family patterns. When I was a kid, if you had a family w/children (as most did) and could afford it, you moved to the suburbs. Now, there are far more childless couples and singles, who find city life much more attractive.

[cjppjc]

I myself cannot believe how the north side has changed since I moved to Texas in mid-1970's. Particularly around Wrigley field (Cubs Park), Broadway Ave, and Halsted St., since I used to walk those areas during the daytime (worked in area during college years), but never at night, because they were kind of slummy and dangerous. During my youth, those areas behind Lake Shore Dr were going down, down. Then came the gentrification. Now that area is hot, hot and expensive.

I saw a TV show about a young Yuppie couple recently who wanted to buy a condo between Wrigley field and Southport Ave, which now has a lot of nice business catering to young professionals. I worked at a factory during summers in my high school years (mid-1960's) on Southport Ave and it was a pretty run-down street at the time. Couple ended paying $310,000 for a condo in Lakeview area near Southport Ave. Unbelievable.

I grew up near Ashland and Irving (1600 W, 4000 N). That area was then middle middle class, not posh like Lake Shore Dr or run-down like some of the area between us and Lake Shore Dr. My parents stayed in that house till 1997, so I saw the unfolding gentrification over the years.

I honestly believe there were 2 main reasons it changed so drastically.

1. Excellent public transportation system. This part of town was built before car era, and has 2 main "L" lines that run through it. There's a "L" stop on Southport Ave, for example. Also, good, dependable bus system in this part of town. So if you work downtown, it's a great place to live.

2. Changing family patterns. When I was a kid, if you had a family w/children (as most did) and could afford it, you moved to the suburbs. Now, there are far more childless couples and singles, who find city life much more attractive.


How funny is that. I was at 4100 north, Irving park and I can't remember the name of the big cross street. Agree with your point number 1. The public transportation system can be learned in an hour. As an aside the parks department of Chicago is great. Every large street has a park every 4-8 blocks with lots of benches and tennis courts.:)

[BigBagel]

I spent some time in Chicago. Originally Belmont and Lakeshore Drive. Then 4100 North. Both areas have changed alot in 20 - 30 years. Duh. No kidding.

I grew up in NYC. For some reason I never felt comfortable in Chicago at night. New York yes. On my last visit about 3 years ago, I saw lots of rehabs. Turning the buildings into condos. Wonder how those prices are holding up.

There's a reason for feeling less comfortable in Chicago. They had about the same number of homicides as New York last year. They achieved this dubious accomplishment with a population of over 5 million less people then NYC.

[babbittd]

FBI: Arm Boston Police With Assault Rifles

http://www.thebostonchannel.com/news/20451561/detail.html

Warren Bamford, the special agent in charge of the FBI in Boston, said Tuesday that he is baffled by opposition to a proposal to give some neighborhood police officers the semiautomatic weapons.

In May, Boston Mayor Tom Menino criticized a proposal to arm up to 200 officers with M-16s that the police department had ordered from the U.S. military. Menino said only specially trained units should have the guns.

Bamford said he believes more officers should have access to the guns in the event Boston becomes the target of a terrorist attack like the one that killed 166 people in Mumbai, India in November.

[metalman]

FBI: Arm Boston Police With Assault Rifles

http://www.thebostonchannel.com/news/20451561/detail.html

Warren Bamford, the special agent in charge of the FBI in Boston, said Tuesday that he is baffled by opposition to a proposal to give some neighborhood police officers the semiautomatic weapons.

In May, Boston Mayor Tom Menino criticized a proposal to arm up to 200 officers with M-16s that the police department had ordered from the U.S. military. Menino said only specially trained units should have the guns.

Bamford said he believes more officers should have access to the guns in the event Boston becomes the target of a terrorist attack like the one that killed 166 people in Mumbai, India in November.

what's the big deal? hong kong airport security's got them.

http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1107/541380052_c8085fdf62_o.jpg

uh, oh. we're not shipping janet's thread off to rant & rave with gun talk, are we?

[BigLandbaron]

I wouldn't walk through Chicago or NYC at night without a gun!

The victims assaulted with bricks and brass knuckles might not have been successfully mugged if they carried a gun, depends how sneaky the muggers were coming up behind them. Coming from a rural area, I think I would sense these clowns sneaking up behind me. I'd love to perform my civic duty and blow a few holes in each of them. If they survived (unlikely, I don't want to get sued!), they would surely think twice about trying that crap on someone else.

If every responsible adult exercised their 2nd amendment right to own and carry a gun (for personal protection) ... there would be far less crime, and way fewer repeat criminals ;). The cost of Police protection and prosecutions would drop dramatically. Guns are the ultimate personal protection from uncontrolled external forces, much like Itulipers use gold to protect against financial mugging.

I sleep incredibly well at night owning plenty of both! :cool:

[goadam1]

I wouldn't walk through Chicago or NYC at night without a gun!

The victims assaulted with bricks and brass knuckles might not have been successfully mugged if they carried a gun, depends how sneaky the muggers were coming up behind them. Coming from a rural area, I think I would sense these clowns sneaking up behind me. I'd love to perform my civic duty and blow a few holes in each of them. If they survived (unlikely, I don't want to get sued!), they would surely think twice about trying that crap on someone else.

If every responsible adult exercised their 2nd amendment right to own and carry a gun (for personal protection) ... there would be far less crime, and way fewer repeat criminals ;). The cost of Police protection and prosecutions would drop dramatically. Guns are the ultimate personal protection from uncontrolled external forces, much like Itulipers use gold to protect against financial mugging.

I sleep incredibly well at night owning plenty of both! :cool:

I'm glad you aren't here in new york with me. I'm very comfortable in New York without a gun.

[Serge_Tomiko]

I linked to the Chicago articles...crimes took place less than a mile from where I grew up.

Very interesting. This part of Chicago has been heavily gentrified in last 25 years, it's close to the "L" (elevated trains) and lots of good bus service. My parents bought a house in the northern Lakeview district in 1959 for $20,000, now single family homes on my old block sell for $400,000 to $500,00 (old houses, built in early 1900's). Plus there'e been a lot of tear-downs, demolish 2 old houses, combines the lots, build a condo complex and sell each 1200-1400 sq ft condo for $250,000 - $275,000.

Not the kind of area where you'd expect a break-out of serious street crime. This part of Chicago (north side, within 2 miles of the lake) is now very popular with yuppies, and has lots of new business that cater to yuppies.

In all fairness, the Uptown neighborhood has only recently gentrified. I lived in Rogers Park in the late 1990s and the area around Lawrence and Sheridan was arguably worse than much of that neighborhood. It was mostly a desolate warzone with the only signs of life being around the Aragon ballroom or the Green Mill.

I wouldn't be surprised if the area around Wilton Ave is still terrible. Many of the buildings near the red line stop there were SROs that probably haven't been renovated due to the likely community protests.

[Serge_Tomiko]

I'm glad you aren't here in new york with me. I'm very comfortable in New York without a gun.

You probably live in a nice Manhattan neighborhood and maybe have a doorman.

Are you living on the Grand Concourse? Eastern Parkway?

I moved from Brooklyn to a crappy walkup in Manhattan because there is no police presence there and when things get tough again, you'll be on your own.

[goadam1]

You probably live in a nice Manhattan neighborhood and maybe have a doorman.

Are you living on the Grand Concourse? Eastern Parkway?

I moved from Brooklyn to a crappy walkup in Manhattan because there is no police presence there and when things get tough again, you'll be on your own.

Poor places have and always will be dangerous. I do live in Manhattan. I also pay tons in taxes to live in a nice place and have it relatively safe.

Actually people get shot in my neighborhood. Last summer a kid was shot in the head after a party. I doubt high inflation had anything to do with it. I also doubt a better situation would have come if the victim was armed in Dodge City gun fight fashion.

I think some of the ideas here a bogus. By juxtaposing an event with a theory you create a false correlation. I also think nothing good would come from having more people with guns. If it requires more taxes to pay for policing more neighborhoods, I would gladly pay the tax. I'm also glad they are putting Calexico Burris in jail for carrying a concealed weapon in a night club.

[metalman]

Poor places have and always will be dangerous. I do live in Manhattan. I also pay tons in taxes to live in a nice place and have it relatively safe.

Actually people get shot in my neighborhood. Last summer a kid was shot in the head after a party. I doubt high inflation had anything to do with it. I also doubt a better situation would have come if the victim was armed in Dodge City gun fight fashion.

I think some of the ideas here a bogus. By juxtaposing an event with a theory you create a false correlation. I also think nothing good would come from having more people with guns. If it requires more taxes to pay for policing more neighborhoods, I would gladly pay the tax. I'm also glad they are putting Calexico Burris in jail for carrying a concealed weapon in a night club.

correlation between poverty and crime is air tight. if ej and janet are right and we are getting poorer as purchasing power drops along with rising employment, that means more poverty & that means more property crime.

the data support this idea...

http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/08aprelim/table_2.html

violent crime in the usa has dropped for decades.

[goadam1]

correlation between poverty and crime is air tight. if ej and janet are right and we are getting poorer as purchasing power drops along with rising employment, that means more poverty & that means more property crime.

the data support this idea...

http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/08aprelim/table_2.html

violent crime in the usa has dropped for decades.

I'm not saying you couldn't make the case between poverty and crime. I'm saying the article uses the crime as a metaphor for financial mugging. But based on the emotional reactions on the thread, you can see people correlated the financial crisis to a rise in crime. Can one make that case? Maybe. But here juxtaposition has lead to supposition.

[steveaustin2006]

I think some of the ideas here a bogus. By juxtaposing an event with a theory you create a false correlation. I also think nothing good would come from having more people with guns. If it requires more taxes to pay for policing more neighborhoods, I would gladly pay the tax. I'm also glad they are putting Calexico Burris in jail for carrying a concealed weapon in a night club.

I think the message is that no matter where in the world you live - as unemployment rises and more and more young men find themselves idle, crime increases. What is the cause of the unemployment? A financial crisis based upon the transition out of an imbalanced western financial system?

[goadam1]

correlation between poverty and crime is air tight. if ej and janet are right and we are getting poorer as purchasing power drops along with rising employment, that means more poverty & that means more property crime.

the data support this idea...

http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/08aprelim/table_2.html

violent crime in the usa has dropped for decades.

I work in advertising. I know all about juxtaposing two ideas to make an impression or idea seem true. It might be true, but that is another topic.

The best parts of Itulip avoid making false or true seeming correlations.

[goadam1]

I think the message is that no matter where in the world you live - as unemployment rises and more and more young men find themselves idle, crime increases. What is the cause of the unemployment? A financial crisis based upon the transition out of an imbalanced western financial system?

I would like a statistic on crime before the crisis or maybe during the 90's boom to compare the impact of this crisis. I also would like to cross reference changes in demographics. Maybe there is more crime per 17 year old but less crime. Maybe other factors are at work. Maybe something else. It's probably true. But maybe it isn't. But putting an event with an idea to prove your point isn't science.

[goadam1]

I think the message is that no matter where in the world you live - as unemployment rises and more and more young men find themselves idle, crime increases. What is the cause of the unemployment? A financial crisis based upon the transition out of an imbalanced western financial system?

Is there more crime since the crisis? I don't pretend to know.

[goadam1]

I think the message is that no matter where in the world you live - as unemployment rises and more and more young men find themselves idle, crime increases. What is the cause of the unemployment? A financial crisis based upon the transition out of an imbalanced western financial system?

I know a couple of stories of deadbeat dad's. I got a call about a former employee who needs his wages garnished.

There is a deep recession and high unemployment in America.

There you go: recession = more deadbeat dad's. Did I prove it? Or did I put two ideas out at the same time? It sounds true.

[steveaustin2006]

I know a couple of stories of deadbeat dad's. I got a call about a former employee who needs his wages garnished.

There is a deep recession and high unemployment in America.

There you go: recession = more deadbeat dad's. Did I prove it? Or did I put two ideas out at the same time? It sounds true.

Point taken. The link, if there is one, between unemployment and crime (http://www.cepr.org/press/DP2129.htm) is a controversial subject and no one in any material here has set out to establish such a link. And after glancing at the article again, it seems I am off on a tangent there drawing my own conclusions for crime and the author did not make such a connection.

Yes, I believe she is just using it as a metaphor - being mugged from behind in a rich neighborhood (lincoln park) is just as unexpected for those wealthy people as being mugged in their money market fund (breaking the buck) - ya just don't expect it to happen to you.

[BigLandbaron]

Poor places have and always will be dangerous. I do live in Manhattan. I also pay tons in taxes to live in a nice place and have it relatively safe.

Actually people get shot in my neighborhood. Last summer a kid was shot in the head after a party. I doubt high inflation had anything to do with it. I also doubt a better situation would have come if the victim was armed in Dodge City gun fight fashion.

I think some of the ideas here a bogus. By juxtaposing an event with a theory you create a false correlation. I also think nothing good would come from having more people with guns. If it requires more taxes to pay for policing more neighborhoods, I would gladly pay the tax. I'm also glad they are putting Calexico Burris in jail for carrying a concealed weapon in a night club.

GOADAM1, we're generally on opposite ends of this argument. I live in an area rural enough that you could yell for help all you want and no one is likely to hear you (unlike Manhattan). The median income here is incredibly low.

Guns and parties (alcohol/drugs) don't mix, especially for the younger crowd. No argument there!

"Dodge City Gun fashion" ... what an image!:eek: Where did that come from?A responsible civilian carrying a concealed weapon is not wearing hardware to show it off. It's like having a wallet, it's there somewhere handy if/when you ever need it. It is to be pulled out only if you intend to use it.

Crime rates usually go up in tougher times ... when human desperation abounds. Safes, guns and ammo have become incredibly popular purchases in this past year. Law abiding citizens are attempting to protect themselves and family into the unknown future. They don't believe gov't will sufficiently protect them after TSHTF, crime will rise and revenues (to pay for services) will most likely fall. Human history says we could be in for exiting times. We're will have a lot of morally malnourished unemployed younger folks with an entitlement attitude looking for $$$ in about any way they can get it, plus all the older seasoned criminals doing what they know best.

In any dangerous area, or in a dangerous time, I would much rather have a gun on me (purely as a defensive tool) than to have only my bare hands and the promise of protection from the local gov't. A Gov't promise doesn't mean much while a group of thugs are beating your head in and breaking your bones, molesting your wife and kids (or worse). I believe one is ultimately responsible for their own security, deferring that responsibility to the Police (and the delay of their arrival after the fact) leaves you open for a lot of pain with potential of long term life changing issues ... if you lived through it ... while reinforcing the criminals conclusion that they can get away with these crimes before the police arrive.

Belief systems are incredibly hard to change, and I don't expect to change yours. I will explain where I'm coming from, and maybe you can respect that and accept it to be my right and my choice. My beliefs are rooted in the constitution, human history and the family values I grew up with. People just don't change much over the centuries. One's ability to put up a strong defense will always make them a less desirable target for criminal activity. Easier pickings abound for the criminal intent on mugging ... especially tasty are the folks who think carrying a gun for defense is excessive. A can of mace or tazer may work on one thug, but won't be enough to fight off a few thugs at one time. Martial arts may help but criminals with weapons (knives, pipes, chains, bricks ... or guns) will most likely trump that. I believe a gun in the hand of someone who knows how to use it is the best deterrent to personal crime (that's what the cops do!). In hard times, a gun is like having gold; it trumps everything else in it's class. When a criminal discovers that you have a hardened defense, most will run away to seek less challenging conquests ... those who don't will get to find out how good you are with that gun. Problem is solved either way, the innocent have higher odds of remaining unmolested than those holding only a promise from the local gov't.

When discussing current and future unrest, the gun topic is bound to pop up a few times no matter how much we try to supress discussing it. :( Belief runs deep on both sides of this argument.

If you have a better defensive alternative, I'm all ears. Always open to better ideas to accomplish personal protection ... but I'm not moving to Manhattan for it !!! ;)

[goadam1]

GOADAM1, we're generally on opposite ends of this argument. I live in an area rural enough that you could yell for help all you want and no one is likely to hear you (unlike Manhattan). The median income here is incredibly low.

Guns and parties (alcohol/drugs) don't mix, especially for the younger crowd. No argument there!

"Dodge City Gun fashion" ... what an image!:eek: Where did that come from?A responsible civilian carrying a concealed weapon is not wearing hardware to show it off. It's like having a wallet, it's there somewhere handy if/when you ever need it. It is to be pulled out only if you intend to use it.

Crime rates usually go up in tougher times ... when human desperation abounds. Safes, guns and ammo have become incredibly popular purchases in this past year. Law abiding citizens are attempting to protect themselves and family into the unknown future. They don't believe gov't will sufficiently protect them after TSHTF, crime will rise and revenues (to pay for services) will most likely fall. Human history says we could be in for exiting times. We're will have a lot of morally malnourished unemployed younger folks with an entitlement attitude looking for $$$ in about any way they can get it, plus all the older seasoned criminals doing what they know best.

In any dangerous area, or in a dangerous time, I would much rather have a gun on me (purely as a defensive tool) than to have only my bare hands and the promise of protection from the local gov't. A Gov't promise doesn't mean much while a group of thugs are beating your head in and breaking your bones, molesting your wife and kids (or worse). I believe one is ultimately responsible for their own security, deferring that responsibility to the Police (and the delay of their arrival after the fact) leaves you open for a lot of pain with potential of long term life changing issues ... if you lived through it ... while reinforcing the criminals conclusion that they can get away with these crimes before the police arrive.

Belief systems are incredibly hard to change, and I don't expect to change yours. I will explain where I'm coming from, and maybe you can respect that and accept it to be my right and my choice. My beliefs are rooted in the constitution, human history and the family values I grew up with. People just don't change much over the centuries. One's ability to put up a strong defense will always make them a less desirable target for criminal activity. Easier pickings abound for the criminal intent on mugging ... especially tasty are the folks who think carrying a gun for defense is excessive. A can of mace or tazer may work on one thug, but won't be enough to fight off a few thugs at one time. Martial arts may help but criminals with weapons (knives, pipes, chains, bricks ... or guns) will most likely trump that. I believe a gun in the hand of someone who knows how to use it is the best deterrent to personal crime (that's what the cops do!). In hard times, a gun is like having gold; it trumps everything else in it's class. When a criminal discovers that you have a hardened defense, most will run away to seek less challenging conquests ... those who don't will get to find out how good you are with that gun. Problem is solved either way, the innocent have higher odds of remaining unmolested than those holding only a promise from the local gov't.

When discussing current and future unrest, the gun topic is bound to pop up a few times no matter how much we try to supress discussing it. :( Belief runs deep on both sides of this argument.

If you have a better defensive alternative, I'm all ears. Always open to better ideas to accomplish personal protection ... but I'm not moving to Manhattan for it !!! ;)

i made no statements that would run counter to the necessity or the appropriateness of you owning a gun. I believe firmly that Americans have the right to have guns. I do believe guns should be registered and owners should be licensed.

Your issues with my position are based on cultural and regional biases. Because of your passionate feelings of your position, you came to a conclusion on my position. If I owned a rural property, I would surely have a gun. But people who do not live in NYC have strong opinions on guns in NYC. God bless America.

I still stand behind my position that no research based facts are presented in the piece and it is pure propaganda to juxtapose one idea with another without fact.

[goadam1]

It would not be safer to have people walking around armed in NYC.

[BigLandbaron]

i made no statements no statements about your feeling the necessity or the appropriateness of you owning a gun. I believe firmly that Americans have the right to have guns. I do believe guns should be registered and owners should be licensed.

Your issues with my position are based on cultural and regional biases. Because of your passionate feelings of your position, you came to a conclusion on my position. If I owned a rural property, I would surely have a gun. But people who do not live in NYC have strong opinions on guns in NYC. God bless America.

I still stand behind my position that no research based facts are presented in the piece and it is pure propaganda to juxtapose one idea with another without fact.

Have I misunderstood the intent of your response? I responded to it just as I read it. Sorry if I've erred. I am not intentionally juxtaposing anything here.

Most of America is rural ... do you expect me to provide a link to prove this assertion as well? :rolleyes:

I have plenty of local first hand information, 5 of the local gun shops are my source (customer traffic, volume sales increase of guns, safes and ammo, pricing increases) as well as an occasional MSM article. Demand is definitely up.

I do assume violent crime will increase in the future just as we all assume the real economy is going to get much worse in the near term. I believe violent crime/economy are linked, but I don't have the time today to pull up articles supporting that for you. Crime trend reports are after the fact and so we will see what real effect the regional economies have had on regional crime very soon.

Most folks here didn't lock their car doors and houses 25 years ago ... that has changed. My own home was broken into twice in the past 4 years <nonviolent crime, yes my doors were locked>. A vehicle was stolen from my driveway one night in 2001 <locked>. The seed article for this thread was about a crime, data to support the assumption that crime is on the rise would be great if anyone wants to dig it up. I don't really care what MSM says now, I feel I'm now positioned to be as safe as I'm going to be regardless.

If I lived in Manhattan ... and I stayed out of seedier areas nearby ... I might not feel the need to be burdened with owning a gun as long as there was a strong police presence everywhere I went. I haven't spent enough time there to know that area well, so you are right; I can't speak for living there.

I'm outta here, I'm late, I gotta go!! Have a great weekend, I hope to do likewise! ;)

BLB

[goadam1]

ha ha. We 99% agree with each other. Visit NYC, check your gunat the door. Now let's argue about healthcare.


Have I misunderstood the intent of your response? I responded to it just as I read it. Sorry if I've erred. I am not intentionally juxtaposing anything here.

Most of America is rural ... do you expect me to provide a link to prove this assertion as well? :rolleyes:

I have plenty of local first hand information, 5 of the local gun shops are my source (customer traffic, volume sales increase of guns, safes and ammo, pricing increases) as well as an occasional MSM article. Demand is definitely up.

I do assume violent crime will increase in the future just as we all assume the real economy is going to get much worse in the near term. I believe violent crime/economy are linked, but I don't have the time today to pull up articles supporting that for you. Crime trend reports are after the fact and so we will see what real effect the regional economies have had on regional crime very soon.

Most folks here didn't lock their car doors and houses 25 years ago ... that has changed. My own home was broken into twice in the past 4 years <nonviolent crime, yes my doors were locked>. A vehicle was stolen from my driveway one night in 2001 <locked>. The seed article for this thread was about a crime, data to support the assumption that crime is on the rise would be great if anyone wants to dig it up. I don't really care what MSM says now, I feel I'm now positioned to be as safe as I'm going to be regardless.

If I lived in Manhattan ... and I stayed out of seedier areas nearby ... I might not feel the need to be burdened with owning a gun as long as there was a strong police presence everywhere I went. I haven't spent enough time there to know that area well, so you are right; I can't speak for living there.

I'm outta here, I'm late, I gotta go!! Have a great weekend, I hope to do likewise! ;)

BLB

[pwcmba]

And the beat goes on, and the beat goes on.

I am glad I sold my house here almost five years ago and rent(makes it easy to move). I haven't felt this unsafe in Chicago since I moved here in 1990. I just picked up my used (2005) convertible Benz for under 25k so I am about ready to pack up and roll out of here.

http://cbs2chicago.com/local/lincoln.park.beating.2.1134611.html

3 Hurt In New Lakeview, Lincoln Park Attacks
2 Attacks May Be Related To Earlier Incidents
CHICAGO (CBS) ―
Aug 19, 2009 6:13 pm US/Central

"A man was attacked and robbed after sunrise Wednesday morning at Belmont and Wilton avenues in Lakeview.

There were more attacks on men in the Lincoln Park and Lakeview neighborhoods early Wednesday morning, and one of the victims is speaking out.

But police say the case involving the firefighter, while it happened at Halsted Street and Dickens Avenue in the heart of Lincoln Park, is not related to the recent rash of brutal muggings in the neighborhood. "

Great, so its not just one gang doing the attacking; its multiples!

[pwcmba]

"In the last 12 months, there have been 16,690 robberies in the city, according to unofficial Chicago police statistics."

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-chicago-muggings-24-aug24,0,3762222.story

Very sad story.

[metalman]

"In the last 12 months, there have been 16,690 robberies in the city, according to unofficial Chicago police statistics."

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-chicago-muggings-24-aug24,0,3762222.story

Very sad story.

1. the economy went to shit.

2. then unemployment went up.

3. then crime went up.

4. then the educated middle class (black, white, asian... whatever) with high earning jobs left.

5. then the tax revenues fell.

6. then services got worse, including police.

7. then the employers started to leave, no one local to hire.

8. goto #1.

[ThePythonicCow]

4. then the educated middle class (black, white, asian... whatever) with high earning jobs left.I hear one of them found a good job at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington, DC :D.

[flintlock]

Areas like this can De-Gentrify fairly quickly too. :D

All I know is a home invasion or car jacking is on the news every morning now. Often multiple ones. The Home invasions are the most troubling to me. They tend to be more violent and desperate than your run of the mill mugger.

[Serge_Tomiko]

Poor places have and always will be dangerous. I do live in Manhattan. I also pay tons in taxes to live in a nice place and have it relatively safe.

Well, I pay tons of taxes as well, but I don't live in a nice place. You do know property taxes in New York City are actually very low compared to the national average as income taxes fund much of the city's budget, right?


Actually people get shot in my neighborhood. Last summer a kid was shot in the head after a party. I doubt high inflation had anything to do with it. I also doubt a better situation would have come if the victim was armed in Dodge City gun fight fashion.

Yeah, people do get shot in Manhattan, but it is much more rare and they typically are isolated incidents or involve residents of housing projects, whom are a much smaller percentage of the borough's population in comparison with say, Brooklyn.



I think some of the ideas here a bogus. By juxtaposing an event with a theory you create a false correlation. I also think nothing good would come from having more people with guns. If it requires more taxes to pay for policing more neighborhoods, I would gladly pay the tax. I'm also glad they are putting Calexico Burris in jail for carrying a concealed weapon in a night club.

You obviously aren't a life long resident, otherwise you'd remember the days when citizens DID pay for more policing. The issue is the city government is corrupt and incompetent, so they had to hire their own private security force.

Anyway, you seem to be some kind of chip-on-the-shoulder nutjob liberal. So, I'll throw you a really fun personal belief. I don't believe in universal rights of any kind, especially gun ownership. I'd much prefer a national eugenics plan to deal with the crime problem. Ha!

[*T*]

Anyway, you seem to be some kind of chip-on-the-shoulder nutjob liberal. So, I'll throw you a really fun personal belief. I don't believe in universal rights of any kind, especially gun ownership. I'd much prefer a national eugenics plan to deal with the crime problem. Ha!

Ah, I asked about your preferred political system and finally I have an answer (if not a reply). I also support a eugenics programme. The first policy plank is to eliminate those whose support eugenics programmes. The second, to eliminate those who go under handles including the three syllables 'tomiko'.

[pwcmba]

And the beat goes on-

http://www.chicagobreakingnews.com/2009/08/2-shot-outside-loop-tv-studio.html

[leegs]

... I believe firmly that Americans have the right to have guns. I do believe guns should be registered and owners should be licensed. ..

As demonstrated in the UK and Australia, and perhaps Canada, the two beliefs espoused above tend to be mutually exclusive over the long term. Registration and licensing in these places proved to be just stepping stones to gun confiscation and draconian gun-control laws.

Further the argument is made, sensibly IMO, that registration tends to only affect law-abiding citizens. Those with criminal intent will not register their guns.

Anyway, do you really believe that a 'right' should be subject to licensing and registration by a government? A so-called right is different froma 'privilege', such as driving on the public roads, where no one has any problem with the need for licensing and registration.

Frankly I feel sort of weird parroting the NRA talking points, but I think they are relevant to the discussion, given your avowed support for the right to have guns.

[metalman]

oh, janet. look what we did to your chicago economy thread... turned it into a gun rights thread...

http://www.ivovic.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/charltonheston1.jpg

cho approves!

http://img.thesun.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00385/snn0809b280_385834a.jpg
(killed 33)

[flintlock]

oh, janet. look what we did to your chicago economy thread... turned it into a gun rights thread...

http://www.ivovic.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/charltonheston1.jpg

cho approves!

http://img.thesun.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00385/snn0809b280_385834a.jpg
(killed 33)

And then you turn it into an anti-gun thread.:D

[doom&gloom]

Areas like this can De-Gentrify fairly quickly too. :D

All I know is a home invasion or car jacking is on the news every morning now. Often multiple ones. The Home invasions are the most troubling to me. They tend to be more violent and desperate than your run of the mill mugger.

Years ago I had a friend in CA and went to visit him. We went to
Westwood, which was the in and swinging place. I wasyoung, and
thought it was REALLy cool at the time. Went back a few years later
and wanted to visit it again. No dice. After the movie "Colors" came
out and there was a "gang shooting" the whole place sorta melted
away. It was still there, but it was no longer cool, trndy, or even
being visited much..

does not take much to de-gentrify an area, just some fear.



I grew up in Rodgers Park, and lived in Ravenswood, DePaul, Lakeview
and Evanston. Left in 91. Wasback there for a visit last week. A lot
had changed, as one would expect, in the past 5 years since I had been
there, but what struck me most was some of those "cool" areas just did
not seem so "cool" to me anymore.

[pwcmba]

http://www.myfoxchicago.com/dpp/news/metro/video_derrion_albert

Watch out for gangland when coming to the Olympics!