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johngaltfla
08-15-09, 03:32 AM
The Grinch Is About to Steal Christmas


by John Galt

August 14, 2009

In the nation known as Whodunnitville,

“Recovery” was the word sung out loud,

Yet all through the Hoovervilles,

The people lived under a cloud.

Others were smiling, cajoling in sin,

In houses like Goldman, and Morgan again,

The Whodummies bought the story,

That all was okay,

But reality was but one Commerce report away.

The ports seemed quite busy,

But empties were abound,

As little came in and even less exported it was found.

When all was said and done they would see,

The Whodummies were duped by those at Citi,

And life would be sad as Christmas came soon,

As the shelves would be empty as a deflating balloon.

The Grinch was back for a return show,

Much like a prediction of Cramer would blow,

Yet the future is blind to those who think not,

Because Christmas is for banksters you silly snot.

I, John Galt, hereby offer again to surrender my poetic license. In lieu of that, let us review why the Grinch is anticipating a return visit to the retailers and despite the fantasy land news, will probably maintain a lower profile in 2009 than they did in 2008. The advance report for July 2009 Retail Sales (http://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.html) was released by the Census Bureau today and shockers of shockers, Americans who are by and large either unemployed, had their hours and/or wages cut, or anticipated they will be laid off did not go out and sink themselves deeper into debt in July and instead decided not to buy crap they did not need. This information greatly disturbed the dark side of the force and created another wave of hocus-pocus rally and smoke manufacturing on Wall Street which is now irrelevant because the volume is not validating the nonsense Cramer humps on his bull every night, so the dark side elected to ignore it and issue scripts demanding everyone says “this is good news” when in reality it sucked in a nasty, nasty way.

The report in full comes in two parts, with the 8:30 a.m. release and I elected to ignore the car sales because really, who cares how many Ford Focus’ are purchased when they will spend the next two years on the rack anyways? Let’s look at the highlighted portions of the report and reflect:
http://johngaltfla.com/blog2/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/GRINCHJULY09RETAILSALESjgfla.jpg

You can color me crazy but do not the first three categories highlighted reflect that the housing market IS NOT recovering or am I just mired in my blinders on perspective as a person working in that industry and really just think that the numbers are good and those negative signs which impact my bonus actually mean we’re flying level now? The reality is nothing is better, it is still worse and the seasonal bump tells me that the housing market is not in any way shape or form recovering. In fact I look for a larger down leg by December which dwarfs the drops we witnessed in 2008 thanks to the meddling moronic moves of Benron and the boys.

Enough of those “lagging indicators” that Bubblevision likes to ignore and let us look ahead. At 10:15 the same Census Bureau releases the Retail Inventories/Retail Inventory/Sales Ratios (http://www.census.gov/retail/mrts/www/data/excel/mrtsinv92-09.xls) update through June of 2009 and so far, we are not seeing any type of build. This was immediately interpreted that all is well and the retailers were “planning” for a big Christmas to which I call Grinchbs.
http://johngaltfla.com/blog2/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/ENDOFMONTHINVjgflaGRINGCHjune2009.jpg

If you look at the data above, you realize that outside of food and general merchandise, you do not see any hint of a major build towards the Christmas season. This is not unusual for June but by that time some retailers begin to stock their distribution centers in the hopes that the prospects for a bumper Christmas season are logical and well founded in the hopes and reports we hear from the Department of Propaganda via Bubblevison and the mainstream media.

Bullcrap.

There is no inventory build for Christmas, there is no sudden rush to purchase merchandise, and there is no rush for new orders at the wholesale level. Put your children to bed for this next sentence because it is the truth:

Christmas for those dependent on retail sales and promoting Chinese crappola as the meaning of the holiday are going to be very, very Grinched this year.

Need more proof? Here is your July TEU report for the largest Pacific inbound port at Long Beach, CA:

http://johngaltfla.com/blog2/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/LONGBEACHTEUjgflaGRINCH.jpg

You have to start bringing Christmas merchandise in during July and August to reach primary distribution points in a timely manner by late October. This data indicates that the retailers do not believe in this recovery nonsense and neither should you. The credit card companies do not want you out there charging your cards up with plastic toys on their plastic so there is little incentive for the retailers to use their credit to load up at the wholesale level. I anticipate that the August TEU count will improve but not over 2008 levels and not much over the July 2009 levels so you are looking at the prospects of a very glum Christmas season. And notice that I did not even reference once the foreclosure, CDS/CDO and bankster problems about to explode on to the scene if left unchecked.

Bah Humbug.

-The Galtgrinch

D-Mack
08-15-09, 08:33 AM
Retailers Say Losing CIT Would Crimp Supply Chain
Matthew Staver/Bloomberg News

If suppliers lose access to short-term capital, malls like this one in Aurora, Colo., may have much less on the shelves at Christmas.


By STEPHANIE ROSENBLOOM
Published: July 16, 2009

For the nation’s already struggling retailing industry, the collapse of CIT would send yet another wave of pain through the supply chain, wiping out suppliers’ capital, depleting retailers’ credit and leaving the racks and shelves of the nation’s stores sparsely stocked — just in time for Christmas.
Related

CIT serves the retailing industry as a lender but, more significant, as something called a factor, a type of financial intermediary. When small and midsize suppliers ship goods to retailers, they are not paid right away. Yet they need cash to continue producing merchandise. Factors provide the suppliers money until the retailers pay, which can take 30 to 90 days. Factors also guarantee suppliers that they will get paid, even if a retailer to whom they shipped goes bankrupt.

CIT is the factor for about 2,000 manufacturers and suppliers whose goods are sold at about 300,000 retailers across the country.

“When you take someone like CIT, who’s very astute at assessing these kinds of risks, and you take them out of the equation, the suppliers don’t have operating capital,” said Mallory Duncan, senior vice president and general counsel for the National Retail Federation.

...
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/17/business/17factor.html

It could have been worse, I guess

GRG55
08-15-09, 09:38 AM
Retailers Say Losing CIT Would Crimp Supply Chain
Matthew Staver/Bloomberg News

If suppliers lose access to short-term capital, malls like this one in Aurora, Colo., may have much less on the shelves at Christmas.


By STEPHANIE ROSENBLOOM
Published: July 16, 2009

For the nation’s already struggling retailing industry, the collapse of CIT would send yet another wave of pain through the supply chain, wiping out suppliers’ capital, depleting retailers’ credit and leaving the racks and shelves of the nation’s stores sparsely stocked — just in time for Christmas.
Related

CIT serves the retailing industry as a lender but, more significant, as something called a factor, a type of financial intermediary. When small and midsize suppliers ship goods to retailers, they are not paid right away. Yet they need cash to continue producing merchandise. Factors provide the suppliers money until the retailers pay, which can take 30 to 90 days. Factors also guarantee suppliers that they will get paid, even if a retailer to whom they shipped goes bankrupt.

CIT is the factor for about 2,000 manufacturers and suppliers whose goods are sold at about 300,000 retailers across the country.

“When you take someone like CIT, who’s very astute at assessing these kinds of risks, and you take them out of the equation, the suppliers don’t have operating capital,” said Mallory Duncan, senior vice president and general counsel for the National Retail Federation.

...
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/17/business/17factor.html
It could have been worse, I guess

I can't see how CIT survives without a government blood transfusion...



Fed orders CIT to submit capital plan (http://www.reuters.com/article/ousivMolt/idUSTRE57C35W20090813)

Thu Aug 13, 2009 4:31pm EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve has ordered CIT Group Inc (CIT.N (http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=CIT.N)), the cash-strapped corporate lender struggling to avoid bankruptcy, to submit a plan for raising capital and meeting debt obligations within 15 days.

The order from the powerful regulator comes as CIT, which on Monday again warned it may seek bankruptcy protection if debt restructuring efforts fall through, scrambles to line up new financing...

...The lender to small and medium-sized companies has been struggling since 2007 amid spiraling loan losses caused by an ill-timed foray into subprime mortgages.

It received $2.33 billion in bank bailout money from the U.S. Treasury Department in December, but bank regulators last month rejected the 101-year-old lender's request to issue government-guaranteed debt, which would have helped CIT raise cash in still-turbulent markets.

An investor group last month agreed to provide $3 billion in emergency funds...

GRG55
10-08-09, 08:32 AM
I can't see how CIT survives without a government blood transfusion...



Fed orders CIT to submit capital plan (http://www.reuters.com/article/ousivMolt/idUSTRE57C35W20090813)

Thu Aug 13, 2009 4:31pm EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve has ordered CIT Group Inc (CIT.N (http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=CIT.N)), the cash-strapped corporate lender struggling to avoid bankruptcy, to submit a plan for raising capital and meeting debt obligations within 15 days...




And the news doesn't seem to be getting any better. From the WSJ:



<SMALL>OCTOBER 7, 2009, 5:28 P.M. ET</SMALL>
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NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The future of CIT Group Inc. (CIT) grew murkier Wednesday after the disclosure that bond fund giant Pacific Investment Management Co. had quit a steering committee that's trying to prevent the commercial lender from collapse...

Bernardcraig20
12-14-09, 12:30 AM
Thanks for sharing this up!