View Full Version : The Recession is over!
Rejoice!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAL7VZFlPRow
They didn't as much as expected!
All that money pumped in has...........lifted things abit
BTW Whats a "Crack up boom"?
Mike
Most of the 80-s, 90-s, booms were booms ignited by leverage on the rise, increasing debt to GDP, inside a trend of falling commodity prices.
A crack up boom does not depend on that, but is more connected to high government spending, and directly inflationary printing of money, sort of 1940-1950 like boom. Kind of like, let's dump a load of money, and see what happens.
On Germany. They are the only developed country other than Japan that have a very low debt to gdp ratio. These countries can, start to expand private debt.
Chomsky
08-13-09, 08:13 AM
On Germany. They are the only developed country other than Japan that have a very low debt to gdp ratio. These countries can, start to expand private debt.
You're kidding, right? Private debt in Japan is still over 100% of GDP.
http://www.investorsinsight.com/cfs-file.ashx/__key/CommunityServer.Blogs.Components.WeblogFiles/john_5F00_mauldins_5F00_outside_5F00_the_5F00_box/jmotb071309image005_5F00_6B616AB3.jpg
Rejoice!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAL7VZFlPRow
BTW Whats a "Crack up boom"?
Mike
Germany 1923
You're kidding, right? Private debt in Japan is still over 100% of GDP.
http://www.investorsinsight.com/cfs-file.ashx/__key/CommunityServer.Blogs.Components.WeblogFiles/john_5F00_mauldins_5F00_outside_5F00_the_5F00_box/jmotb071309image005_5F00_6B616AB3.jpg
Well, the private debt have not been that low since the 1950-s. On western and developed world, standards I think they, and Germany is low, maybe not very low:)
metalman
08-13-09, 09:07 AM
You're kidding, right? Private debt in Japan is still over 100% of GDP.
http://www.investorsinsight.com/cfs-file.ashx/__key/CommunityServer.Blogs.Components.WeblogFiles/john_5F00_mauldins_5F00_outside_5F00_the_5F00_box/jmotb071309image005_5F00_6B616AB3.jpg
nero's a kidder... he kids around all the time.
Well, the private debt have not been that low since the 1950-s. On western and developed world, standards I think they, and Germany is low, maybe not very low:)
I doubt that we'll see much expansion in Japan and German private debt given the demographic trends in those societies...
I doubt that we'll see much expansion in Japan and German private debt given the demographic trends in those societies...
Haven't you seen the last Rambo Movie. Maybe those oldies are going to have one last blast at it:D
more on sugar. it held up really well during the turbulence last year, and this year to. Some of the same was also seen in gold. When will this thing break loose? There are other commodities as well. The reason sugar held up well, was of course that the fundamentals was strong, even the pressure in the market's was huge. It's really kind of a super-charged move, on the weakness in treasury bonds. That makes me think double dip. However, who knows. I think the fundamentals in the sugar market is far better than in the market for treasury bonds. In in comparison to gold, and the general commodity trends, it's no problem to justify a sugar price of around 40 cents, as a new norm, that is if 10 cent sugar, is compared to 250 dollar gold.
http://www.investmenttools.com/images/wfut/softs/sugar_re.gif
dummass
08-13-09, 09:23 AM
Who appointed nero3 iTulip Ambassador? Has corruption, politics and cronyism, infected our community, too? :D
Recesssion over? Already? That was quick, eh...:p
Gotta love that "Unexpectedly" in the title...
Retail Sales in U.S. Unexpectedly Declined in July (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVpgyu9AsFl4)
Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Sales at U.S. retailers unexpectedly fell in July as a boost from the cash-for-clunkers automobile incentive program failed to overcome cuts in other spending.
The 0.1 percent decrease in sales, the first drop in three months, followed a revised 0.8 percent gain in June that was larger than previously estimated, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Purchases excluding automobiles fell 0.6 percent, also more than anticipated.
Today’s report underscores the threat to spending from the continued deterioration in the job market; a separate government report today showed more Americans than forecast filed claims for unemployment insurance last week.
Retailers such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Macy’s Inc. are cutting costs and inventories to bolster profits households cut back on non-essential items.
“Consumers continued to maintain a tight hold on their wallets, worried about rising unemployment, falling home prices, and tight credit”...
Clearly what's needed is a series of new stimulus programs to supplement "Cash for Clunkers". Time for iTulipers to put their thinking caps on; here's my suggestion [although it may still be a bit early for something this drastic]..."Cash for Corn Flakes".
snakela
08-13-09, 10:13 AM
Cash for coffe. We can't have people drinking $2 McLattes or *gasp* regular joe when $8 lattes beckon. SBUX was takin' off like crazy when the economy was "good". Correlation=causation or somethin'
sunskyfan
08-13-09, 10:37 AM
Clearly what's needed is a series of new stimulus programs to supplement "Cash for Clunkers". Time for iTulipers to put their thinking caps on; here's my suggestion [although it may still be a bit early for something this drastic]..."Cash for Corn Flakes".
That is called "The Farm Bill".
Cash for Airplanes: "The F22"
Cash for Submarines: "The Seawolf"
Cash for Europe: "The Cold War"
Cash for Professors and Colleges: "Sallie Mae"
Cash for Housing Industry: "Freddie Mac"
Cash for Kids: "Child tax credit"
Cash for God: "Church tax exclusion"
Cash for Wall Street: "401k tax credit and the bail outs and ..."
this could go on and on ... and people think cash for clunkers is a big deal?
metalman
08-13-09, 11:11 AM
Who appointed nero3 iTulip Ambassador? Has corruption, politics and cronyism, infected our community, too? :D
i'm not sure the itulip naming conventions work. after you post a certain number of posts, your title changes.
nero needs a custom title, tho.
dummass
08-13-09, 12:11 PM
I would stress quality over quantity.
Recesssion over? Already? That was quick, eh...:p
Gotta love that "Unexpectedly" in the title...
Retail Sales in U.S. Unexpectedly Declined in July (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aVpgyu9AsFl4)
Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Sales at U.S. retailers unexpectedly fell in July as a boost from the cash-for-clunkers automobile incentive program failed to overcome cuts in other spending.
The 0.1 percent decrease in sales, the first drop in three months, followed a revised 0.8 percent gain in June that was larger than previously estimated, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Purchases excluding automobiles fell 0.6 percent, also more than anticipated.
Today’s report underscores the threat to spending from the continued deterioration in the job market; a separate government report today showed more Americans than forecast filed claims for unemployment insurance last week.
Retailers such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Macy’s Inc. are cutting costs and inventories to bolster profits households cut back on non-essential items.
“Consumers continued to maintain a tight hold on their wallets, worried about rising unemployment, falling home prices, and tight credit”...
Clearly what's needed is a series of new stimulus programs to supplement "Cash for Clunkers". Time for iTulipers to put their thinking caps on; here's my suggestion [although it may still be a bit early for something this drastic]..."Cash for Corn Flakes".
"Greenbacks for Gold", in which the government will pay you an incentive of $100 when you trade in that outdated yellow metal for some good old "In God We Trust" fiat.
...Clearly what's needed is a series of new stimulus programs to supplement "Cash for Clunkers". Time for iTulipers to put their thinking caps on; here's my suggestion [although it may still be a bit early for something this drastic]..."Cash for Corn Flakes".
On further reflection it would appear that "Cash for Corn Flakes" already exists, and is expanding quickly...they just don't want to admit that's what it really is. As EJ posted...Recession over, Depression just beginning...
U.S. food stamp list tops 34 million for first time (http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-CreditCrisis/idUSTRE57569720090806)
Thu Aug 6, 2009 5:05pm EDT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - For the first time, more than 34 million Americans received food stamps in May, the government said on Thursday, another symptom of the longest and one of the deepest recessions since the Great Depression.
Enrollment surged by 2 percent to reach a record 34.4 million people, or one in nine Americans, in the latest month for which figures are available.
It was the sixth month in a row that enrollment set a record. Every state recorded a gain, and Florida had the largest increase at 4.2 percent...
..."Food stamp enrollment is rising because the economy is having a devastating impact on low-income families and they need this program to eat," said Stacy Dean of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a think tank. "Every single state has been affected."...
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