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Raz
08-07-09, 10:46 PM
This is a hyperlink to the ScotiaMocatta precious metals update posted each day after the markets close.
It's in pdf so they're easy to save to your hard drive.

Today's commentary was right on technically, at least to this old amateur! ;)

http://www.scotiamocatta.com/prec/pdfs/pm_daily.pdf

cjppjc
08-07-09, 10:55 PM
Thanks Raz. I hate it when someone says gold isn't going higher next week.:mad:

Raz
08-08-09, 01:51 PM
Here's a very recent tidbit from Mr. Hoye on gold.

The hyperlink below will take you to the webpage where I accessed it.

http://www.321gold.com/archives/archives_authors.php?author=Bob+Hoye

cjppjc
08-08-09, 01:54 PM
Thanks again. I don't trade my gold stocks really, so I just hope the all time highs will be taken out.

Raz
08-08-09, 04:06 PM
Thanks again. I don't trade my gold stocks really, so I just hope the all time highs will be taken out.

As long as the weekly trend is up that is a correct and disciplined position to hold. If you wish to add to them, or buy some GTU, for example, then Ross Clark's chartwork might be helpful.

One of the oldest and most reliable computer systems in existence gave the following signal on December Comex Gold last Tuesday when it went from "Short" to "Flat". The Buy and Sell prices are Close Only, that is December Gold must CLOSE above 968.59 for this computer system to go long. I use it as a check against my chart work because there is no subjectivity or emotion in the signals it generates.

It's been my experience that their signals have been correct more often that they've been wrong, but their entry points as often as not leave a lot to be desired. In other words, about half the time you'll get a couple of down days right after the computer issues a buy signal, but the long position thus indicated will more often than not prove to be correct within several more trading sessions.



Metals

Friday, August 07, 2009



Position Trade Trigger Points Open Trade


Symbol Description Position Start Date Entry Price Sell/Sup Buy/Res


GCZ09 Gold-Dec. 09 None 08/04 969.70 937.60* 968.59*

cjppjc
08-08-09, 10:42 PM
As long as the weekly trend is up that is a correct and disciplined position to hold. If you wish to add to them, or buy some GTU, for example, then Ross Clark's chartwork might be helpful.

One of the oldest and most reliable computer systems in existence gave the following signal on December Comex Gold last Tuesday when it went from "Short" to "Flat". The Buy and Sell prices are Close Only, that is December Gold must CLOSE above 968.59 for this computer system to go long. I use it as a check against my chart work because there is no subjectivity or emotion in the signals it generates.

It's been my experience that their signals have been correct more often that they've been wrong, but their entry points as often as not leave a lot to be desired. In other words, about half the time you'll get a couple of down days right after the computer issues a buy signal, but the long position thus indicated will more often than not prove to be correct within several more trading sessions.



Metals

Friday, August 07, 2009



Position Trade Trigger Points Open Trade


Symbol Description Position Start Date Entry Price Sell/Sup Buy/Res


GCZ09 Gold-Dec. 09 None 08/04 969.70 937.60* 968.59*















Well as I said I'm a holder. Not a buyer, not a seller. I had some great gains. I wonder had I found this site earlier would I have listened to the wise advise and sold my mining stocks. I'll never know. I checked in sometimes with Paul Van Eeden. All he does is mining stocks. He said bail. I didn't listen to him. However I heard him say it after most of the losses. So who knows.

jtabeb
08-08-09, 11:59 PM
As long as the weekly trend is up that is a correct and disciplined position to hold. If you wish to add to them, or buy some GTU, for example, then Ross Clark's chartwork might be helpful.

One of the oldest and most reliable computer systems in existence gave the following signal on December Comex Gold last Tuesday when it went from "Short" to "Flat". The Buy and Sell prices are Close Only, that is December Gold must CLOSE above 968.59 for this computer system to go long. I use it as a check against my chart work because there is no subjectivity or emotion in the signals it generates.

It's been my experience that their signals have been correct more often that they've been wrong, but their entry points as often as not leave a lot to be desired. In other words, about half the time you'll get a couple of down days right after the computer issues a buy signal, but the long position thus indicated will more often than not prove to be correct within several more trading sessions.



Metals

Friday, August 07, 2009



Position Trade Trigger Points Open Trade


Symbol Description Position Start Date Entry Price Sell/Sup Buy/Res



GCZ09 Gold-Dec. 09 None 08/04 969.70 937.60* 968.59*













Raz,

are you with ICM63 and think that a dollar rally is upon us?

I'm not a trader, but I try to exit my longs (Uranium Miners) when a takedown is approaching so that I can get them back and hopefully more.

Just curious as to what you think.

Hold till mar '10, or get out before dollar rally and then re-enter?

I guess it all depends on oil.

But I'm seeing confusing things:

1. zero hedge on the Fed buying treasuries 5 days after auction from dealers.

2. Potential Head and shoulders completion on USDX.

3. WTI is at a DISCOUNT to Brent.

???

What does your crystal ball say over the next 6 months?


I was guessing a second FDI (Finster Dollar Index Spike) that would bring about a resuregence of deflationary pressures on commodities and stocks. But the instability on the Bond auctions has me a little spooked.

We all know that the dollar will rally off lows, until it doesn't, and that will be our "POOM" come true.

Question is does it come true before OR after another dollar run-up?

Okay, anyway, as you can tell from the rambling, I'm confused.

I'm "all in" and no cash on my miners, thoughts?!?!

Thanks in advance (my investment decisions are my own, meaning your thoughts do not exempt me from making good sound decisions).

"I have to lay in my own bed, STS"

V/R

JT

Raz
08-09-09, 10:35 PM
Raz,

are you with ICM63 and think that a dollar rally is upon us?

I'm not a trader, but I try to exit my longs (Uranium Miners) when a takedown is approaching so that I can get them back and hopefully more.

Just curious as to what you think.

Hold till mar '10, or get out before dollar rally and then re-enter?

I guess it all depends on oil.

But I'm seeing confusing things:

1. zero hedge on the Fed buying treasuries 5 days after auction from dealers.

2. Potential Head and shoulders completion on USDX.

3. WTI is at a DISCOUNT to Brent.

???

What does your crystal ball say over the next 6 months?


I was guessing a second FDI (Finster Dollar Index Spike) that would bring about a resuregence of deflationary pressures on commodities and stocks. But the instability on the Bond auctions has me a little spooked.

We all know that the dollar will rally off lows, until it doesn't, and that will be our "POOM" come true.

Question is does it come true before OR after another dollar run-up?

Okay, anyway, as you can tell from the rambling, I'm confused.

I'm "all in" and no cash on my miners, thoughts?!?!

Thanks in advance (my investment decisions are my own, meaning your thoughts do not exempt me from making good sound decisions).

"I have to lay in my own bed, STS"

V/R

JT

jtabeb, you sure ask hard questions!

I believe that the US Dollar is due for a rally of some sort, yes. Bullish Consensus is down to 33%, one of the best technicians I've ever followed says to look for a low at 77.70 basis the September '09 Dollar Index futures contract, and if there is further weakness support should come in at 76.025 (the "fourth wave low of previous degree" made on September 22, 2008, in technical analysis jargon), Purchasing Power Parity shows the Dollar to be undervalued against the Euro, and everyone knows that the spendthrift Democrats have assured the complete destruction of the Dollar. All of these put together seem to me to make the Dollar ripe for a rally - within an ongoing Bear Market. The September Dollar Index could easily move up to 81.80 and possibly up to 88.50 - about a 3.50% to 12.0% gain from Friday's close. And Friday looked rather strong. BUT, EJ is correct that looking out a couple of years or longer the Dollar will go lower, until fundamental and painful changes are made bothin the economic, trade and government fiscal policy of the United States.
I believe it will take a massive crisis pushing gold above $2,000/oz. before such changes are finally made. So I don't plan to sell any of my physical metals although I might hedge my gold trust positions if the Dollar's technical strength improves.

Uranium is an entirely different matter. It must compete with other fuels used in generation of electricity as well as face regulatory hurdles that restrict its usage. Take a look at this chart of Uranium Participation Corp.
(I couldn't get it to paste!)

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=U.TO&p=W&st=2006-10-02&id=p06729294487&listNum=1&a=131304862

It remains in a Long-Term downtrend, but for the first time in more than three years it has taken out a "Swing High", meaning that a case can now be made that it has bottomed. It also seems to be finding support at the 40 week moving average after being stopped by the 80 week moving average, so if it can close ckearly above $8.00 as a Friday (weekly) CLOSE, it will look even more like a bottom has been established.

I know very little about Uranium Mining stocks but I have access to some research which you might want to read.
Go to iTulip Select under "Resources" and check out the latest post I made under "Uranium".
I believe the last two covered both the prices for U308 and the shares as well.

Hope this has been of some help. If I failed to answer anything you asked just drop me a private message and I'll gladly respond.

Raz
08-22-09, 11:42 PM
Here is an interesting analysis of Gold based on chart pattern repitition.

This article is by a pretty good chartist who went "institutional" several years ago after posting some very interesting and accurate chart studies on the old Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa Exchange.

This might be somewhat difficult to follow for those with no background in technical analysis, but should prove rewarding in terms of grasping chart techniques to those who make the effort to understand.

ThePythonicCow
08-23-09, 12:40 AM
Here is an interesting analysis of Gold based on chart pattern repitition.I take it (hopefully correctly) that he is in the same boat as many of us, hoping gold will go below $900 one more time, to load up for a likely strong rise well above $1000.

Argh ... it's getting crowded here. Too many people with the same view make me nervous.

jk
08-23-09, 03:09 PM
I take it (hopefully correctly) that he is in the same boat as many of us, hoping gold will go below $900 one more time, to load up for a likely strong rise well above $1000.

Argh ... it's getting crowded here. Too many people with the same view make me nervous.
when/if it actually sells off we'll see who's got the courage of his convictions.