View Full Version : Official Recession "over" - indicators to watch
Various charts to help determine when and whether the official recession is over. This is far from a complete list.
http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/industrial_production_short.png
http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/industrial_production.png
http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/capacity_util.png
Paul Kasriel with NTRS also likes a reversal in the 3 month moving average of The Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators, which I track but can't post due to copyright issues. It has not reversed yet.
Don Coxe also likes the inventory to sales ratio:
http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/inventory_sales_ratio.png
Various charts to help determine when and whether the official recession is over. This is far from a complete list.
http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/industrial_production_short.png
http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/industrial_production.png
http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/capacity_util.png
Paul Kasriel with NTRS also likes a reversal in the 3 month moving average of The Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators, which I track but can't post due to copyright issues. It has not reversed yet.
Don Coxe also likes the inventory to sales ratio:
http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/inventory_sales_ratio.png
As forecast here numerous times, the first stage of the FIRE Economy Depression ends in Q3 2009 as a result of fiscal stimulus and bank bailouts.
Repeating FIRE Economy MSM terminology aka "recession is over" is confusing, don't you think?
As forecast here numerous times, the first stage of the FIRE Economy Depression ends in Q3 2009 as a result of fiscal stimulus and bank bailouts.
Repeating FIRE Economy MSM terminology aka "recession is over" is confusing, don't you think?
I've forecast myself that it'll be over around October as far as the "official" recession, but the real one will continue for some time to come. Feel free to change the thread title if you like, it was just a quick thought.
I was requested in a PM to post an inventory to sales chart, and figured I'd just add in a few other charts that have been reliable in the past to help confirm their end, and way before the NBER calls it.
I've forecast myself that it'll be over around October as far as the "official" recession, but the real one will continue for some time to come. Feel free to change the thread title if you like, it was just a quick thought.
I was requested in a PM to post an inventory to sales chart, and figured I'd just add in a few other charts that have been reliable in the past to help confirm their end, and way before the NBER calls it.
Now that the fun and games are over, and no one who understands the concepts of the FIRE Economy and debt deflation is any longer asking questions such as "Is The Debt Deflation Bear Market Over? (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6185)" it's time to get on the same theoretical page or we risk confusing our community.
By they way, two down, one to go! (http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=25295#post25295) :)
Now that the fun and games are over, and no one who understands the concepts of the FIRE Economy and debt deflation is any longer asking questions such as "Is The Debt Deflation Bear Market Over? (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6185)" it's time to get on the same theoretical page or we risk confusing our community.
By they way, two down, one to go! (http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=25295#post25295) :)
I honestly have no clue how those charts could confuse the community, but feel free to delete the whole thread if you think it does or might.
I honestly have no clue how those charts could confuse the community, but feel free to delete the whole thread if you think it does or might.
Your charts are not even slightly confusing. Thanks for posting them.
The title may confuse anyone who is in the habit of believing the latest from the "What bubbles?" crowd. :cool:
A nice set of figures there Bart. Are they live links / will they be updated?
They all seem to be in free-fall still to me, except possibly inventory/sales.
goadam1
07-20-09, 06:06 AM
Soap bubbles. My gas bubbles in the tub. On orgy in a jacuzzi bubbles.
Nero has a fertelizer vs gold chart to show the poop bubble(I think that one popped in may).
I'm confused why her is a crash in energy still coming if the recession is "over"
Your charts are not even slightly confusing. Thanks for posting them.
The title may confuse anyone who is in the habit of believing the latest from the "What bubbles?" crowd. :cool:
I just tried to change it to 'Official' recession monitoring - some charts to watch but was unable to do so.
Please feel free to change it to that or anything else that you believe would be better. Thread titles, and even always clear post content, are not my strong suits.
A nice set of figures there Bart. Are they live links / will they be updated?
They all seem to be in free-fall still to me, except possibly inventory/sales.
Almost all of the charts I post are live links, even the ones in various short articles like the recent one about Depression parallels. I probably should lock some down since it can be confusing to see comments that don't match charts...
Inventory to sales is odd - for every recession up to the most recent one this decade, it peaked 1-3 months before the end of the recession and was quite reliable. But it peaked 8 months before the 'official' recession ended in November 2001, which was 11 months before the stock markets bottomed in October 2002. It was two years or more until we saw significant employment gains.
Bottom line, it's a great MSM recession poster boy chart.
And I need to correct myself - Don Coxe likes the wholesale inventory to sales ratio, which is different from the one that I posted. I may try & put a chart together of it, but the data is messy, not simple to extract & chart and from the Census bureau - not the Fed.
Kadriana
07-20-09, 10:21 AM
Now that the fun and games are over, and no one who understands the concepts of the FIRE Economy and debt deflation is any longer asking questions such as "Is The Debt Deflation Bear Market Over? (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=6185)" it's time to get on the same theoretical page or we risk confusing our community.
By they way, two down, one to go! (http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=25295#post25295) :)
Yea, I would be one of the confused ones. :)
Does this mean housing prices and unemployment are close to bottoming out or more that inflation is going to hit base commodity prices.
As promised, the wholesale inventory to sales ratio.
http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/inventory_sales_ratio_w.png
Finster
07-31-09, 09:50 AM
Various charts to help determine when and whether the official recession is over. This is far from a complete list.
[El Chartos Bartos]
[El Chartos Bartos]
Paul Kasriel with NTRS also likes a reversal in the 3 month moving average of The Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators, which I track but can't post due to copyright issues. It has not reversed yet.
Don Coxe also likes the inventory to sales ratio:
[El Chartos Bartos]
The recession is over!
Let the depression begin!
From my perspective, official declarations about the status of the economy being either in or out of recession are a bureaucratic exercise with little meaning beyond their possible psychological value. The recession that started in 2001, for example, IMO hasn't ended yet. The official declaration to the contrary was based in large part on the assumption that real GDP increased. But that in turn was based on a measurement of nominal GDP and backing out inflation.
Because the rate of inflation was understated, the "real GDP" was overstated. If you start with nominal GDP and back out the much larger actual inflation rate, real GDP growth was far less in the intervening period between the last official recession and the start of this official recession. Using my inflation figures (FDI), US GDP (and per capita GDP) peaked in 2001 and has declined every year since.
"The recession is over!
Let the depression begin!"
Gene Inger has been calling this a "controlled depression", meaning "managed'. I rather like that.
The recession is over!
Let the depression begin!
From my perspective, official declarations about the status of the economy being either in or out of recession are a bureaucratic exercise with little meaning beyond their possible psychological value. The recession that started in 2001, for example, IMO hasn't ended yet. The official declaration to the contrary was based in large part on the assumption that real GDP increased. But that in turn was based on a measurement of nominal GDP and backing out inflation.
Because the rate of inflation was understated, the "real GDP" was overstated. If you start with nominal GDP and back out the much larger actual inflation rate, real GDP growth was far less in the intervening period between the last official recession and the start of this official recession. Using my inflation figures (FDI), US GDP (and per capita GDP) peaked in 2001 and has declined every year since.
Virtually no attempt at a good deed goes unpunished... :eek: ;)
I'll keep publishing the various manipulated & spun ones, as well as the factual ones, until such time as virtually no one takes the spun ones seriously... and perhaps longer, but on a humor page...
And as you know, we track 100% on GDP "special moments" due to inflation/CPI related lies. And note that I did say "official" recession, a point that Fred missed.
Finster
07-31-09, 11:15 AM
Virtually no attempt at a good deed goes unpunished... :eek: ;)
I'll keep publishing the various manipulated & spun ones, as well as the factual ones, until such time as virtually no one takes the spun ones seriously... and perhaps longer, but on a humor page...
And as you know, we track 100% on GDP "special moments" due to inflation/CPI related lies. And note that I did say "official" recession, a point that Fred missed.
Of course ... I just couldn't resist the bait ... :p ;)
But just in case that charting feeling hits you again soon, it might be interesting to see how real GDP comes out if you adjust nominal GDP by the SGS (Williams) inflation data. Or "CPI+Lies". It might not show the virtually uninterrupted slide you get when you use my inflation data, but my guess is it would still show a profoundly more recessionary picture between the two official recessions than the ... uhm ... standard line.
Of course ... I just couldn't resist the bait ... :p ;)
But just in case that charting feeling hits you again soon, it might be interesting to see how real GDP comes out if you adjust nominal GDP by the SGS (Williams) inflation data. Or "CPI+Lies". It might not show the virtually uninterrupted slide you get when you use my inflation data, but my guess is it would still show a profoundly more recessionary picture between the two official recessions than the ... uhm ... standard line.
Those charts are already out there and have been for a few years.
The straight one with annual change rates, not adjusted per capita:
http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/real_gdp2.png
One showing actual dollars, adjusted by both "CPI w/o lies". and expressed per capita, which I suspect comes pretty close to your efforts.... and is even in log format. :rolleyes: ;)
http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/real_gdp_williams_log.png
Note that the charts above don't yet include today's release and related historical changes, but will update automatically later today when I update the site.
Finster
07-31-09, 01:32 PM
Wow, thanks Bart.
The idea behind the per capita adjustment, by the way, is because (with the full inflation adjustment) it reflects what's happening to actual standards of living. If, for example, total real GDP rose by 10% over some time frame, but population rose by 20%, that means that 20% more people had to share the 10% greater total output. So you have a net decline of about 10% in the material standard of living.
Wow, thanks Bart.
The idea behind the per capita adjustment, by the way, is because (with the full inflation adjustment) it reflects what's happening to actual standards of living. If, for example, total real GDP rose by 10% over some time frame, but population rose by 20%, that means that 20% more people had to share the 10% greater total output. So you have a net decline of about 10% in the material standard of living.
As I recall, I can blame my few charts with a per capita basis on you from a few years back in a galaxy far far away, where you unmercifully "abused" me into creating them. :eek:
One day, I'll get back to that task and create a whole series - it can and does make quite a difference with many charts... and now we're back to no attempt at a good deed goes unpunished again. ;)
Factor in the unequal income distribution, and then you really have something. Use bottom 60% share of gdp, and top 1% share of gdp, and then you will have something to show.
You could use the data available on Emmanuel Saez's page (http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~saez/).
The Saez excel spreadsheet (http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~saez/TabFig2006.xls)
metalman
07-31-09, 10:28 PM
itulip.com.... FIRE Economy Fallout -- Part I: Recession ends, depression begins - Eric Janszen (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=112056#post112056) 'By the end of the year you will hear an official announcement by the National Bureau of Economic Research that the national recession that started in Q4 2007 ended in Q3 2009.'
touchring
08-01-09, 04:10 AM
Factor in the unequal income distribution, and then you really have something. Use bottom 60% share of gdp, and top 1% share of gdp, and then you will have something to show.
You could use the data available on Emmanuel Saez's page (http://elsa.berkeley.edu/%7Esaez/).
The Saez excel spreadsheet (http://elsa.berkeley.edu/%7Esaez/TabFig2006.xls)
You can check the gini coefficient. The USA is ranked amongst Cameroon, Rwanda, Uganda, Uruguay, Côte d'Ivoire, in fact, the only Western economy ranked similarly to 3rd world nations.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_income_equality
Rwanda 46.8
People's Republic of China 46.9
Uganda 45.7
United States 45
Côte d'Ivoire 44.6
Cameroon 44.6
.........
Israel 38.6
Japan 38.1
........
New Zealand 36.2
..........
United Kingdom 34
Switzerland 33.7
Italy 33
............
Spain 32
.........
South Korea 31.3
.........
Netherlands 30.9
........
Norway 28
Germany 28
France 28
Belgium 28
........
Finland 26
........
Denmark 24
Sweden 23
Gini coefficients are good when comparing inequalities across countries or geographical areas. We could use the Saez data to calculate the gini coefficients over time, and that may well provide interesting information.
But the gini coefficient (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient) is an abstract mathematical concept based on the Lorenz curve. and likely does not have the same psychological impact as comparing the share of GDP of the top 1% compared to the bottom 60% of society.
Thanks for sharing the gini information. Below is the World Map of the gini coefficients.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/aa/Gini_Coefficient_World_Human_Development_Report_20 07-2008.png/800px-Gini_Coefficient_World_Human_Development_Report_20 07-2008.png
Factor in the unequal income distribution, and then you really have something. Use bottom 60% share of gdp, and top 1% share of gdp, and then you will have something to show.
You could use the data available on Emmanuel Saez's page (http://elsa.berkeley.edu/%7Esaez/).
The Saez excel spreadsheet (http://elsa.berkeley.edu/%7Esaez/TabFig2006.xls)
Thanks Rajiv.
I've downloaded the sheet and added a task to my list of open items.
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