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thunderdownunder
07-18-09, 06:35 AM
Some people like Graphs (not me) but this is a very useful tool if you need current information on the state of the Nation. It is convoluted being Government but it has what you need if you look.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/help-faq/#graph_recessions

I hope it is of use to those who have not found it - Like this graph

http://alfred.stlouisfed.org/graph/alfredgraph.png?bgcolor=%23B3CDE7&chart_type=bar&drp=0&graph_bgcolor=%23FFFFFF&height=378&preserve_ratio=checked&recession_bars=On&txtcolor=%23000000&width=630&id=ICNSA,ICNSA&transformation=lin,lin&scale=Left,Left&range=Custom,Custom&cosd=2009-06-27,2009-06-27&coed=2009-07-04,2009-07-11&line_color=%230000FF,%23FF0000&vintage_date=2009-07-09,2009-07-16&mma=0,0

or these
http://alfred.stlouisfed.org/series?seid=TCU&rid=13

http://alfred.stlouisfed.org/series?seid=REALLN&rid=22

Enjoy playing around (but get a strong drink first) - After spending 3 hours browsing I came to the solid conclusion it all went Horribly Horribly wrong after 1972- would anyone hazard a guess what lit the fuse ???? anyone got a solid idea, because like divorce it is comforting to know where and why it went "pear shaped" (so you never do it again)

PS scroll to the top and work your way down on the first link above

dummass
07-18-09, 07:40 AM
Thank you for the post Thunder. Is it just me, or does the first link only give data (no graph)?

Slimprofits
07-18-09, 09:23 AM
thunderdownunder, I think the Itulip editor account - Fred - is named after that St. Louis FED website.

Anyways, here is a graph from it that perfectly depicts the decline of the U.S.A.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/USGOVT_Max_630_378.png

FRED
07-18-09, 10:50 AM
Some people like Graphs (not me) but this is a very useful tool if you need current information on the state of the Nation. It is convoluted being Government but it has what you need if you look.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/help-faq/#graph_recessions

I hope it is of use to those who have not found it - Like this graph

http://alfred.stlouisfed.org/graph/alfredgraph.png?bgcolor=%23B3CDE7&chart_type=bar&drp=0&graph_bgcolor=%23FFFFFF&height=378&preserve_ratio=checked&recession_bars=On&txtcolor=%23000000&width=630&id=ICNSA,ICNSA&transformation=lin,lin&scale=Left,Left&range=Custom,Custom&cosd=2009-06-27,2009-06-27&coed=2009-07-04,2009-07-11&line_color=%230000FF,%23FF0000&vintage_date=2009-07-09,2009-07-16&mma=0,0

or these
http://alfred.stlouisfed.org/series?seid=TCU&rid=13

http://alfred.stlouisfed.org/series?seid=REALLN&rid=22

Enjoy playing around (but get a strong drink first) - After spending 3 hours browsing I came to the solid conclusion it all went Horribly Horribly wrong after 1972- would anyone hazard a guess what lit the fuse ???? anyone got a solid idea, because like divorce it is comforting to know where and why it went "pear shaped" (so you never do it again)

PS scroll to the top and work your way down on the first link above

Indeed my name FRED is from FRED® (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/), although the Fed has never taken my name as a violation of the Fed's copyright.:)

iTulip charts are created using FRED® (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/), data or tools. For example, this one from Physiognomy of Economic Depression: (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=107426#post107426)


http://www.itulip.com/images/autounitsalesvsrgdp1976-Jul2009.gif


Later we change the background color to iTulip green, annotate the chart with comments, then add a date and identify iTulip as the author of the particular form of the chart and comments.

We also use economagic.com (http://economagic.com/) data or tools. For example this chart from 2006 that we used in our recession 2007 forecasat.


http://www.itulip.com/images/housingpermits1966-2006.gif


We also create charts by hand using excel.


http://www.itulip.com/images/debtoutstandingsectors.gif


http://www.itulip.com/images/debtdeflationbear100708.gif

http://www.itulip.com/images/foreigntreasholdersOct2008-Jan2009.gif



The Fed has several sets of economic and financial data besides FRED® (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/), and you have noted ALFRED® (http://alfred.stlouisfed.org/). Others are EconDISC®, (http://econdisc.stlouisfed.org/) GeoFRED® (http://geofred.stlouisfed.org/), CASSIDI® (http://cassidi.stlouisfed.org/), FRASER® (http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/), and Liber8® (http://liber8.stlouisfed.org/).

The Fed has its problems, but lack of data and tools for analysis of that data is not one of them. :D

thunderdownunder
07-18-09, 07:38 PM
Fred,I had a little chuckle as I made the "Name"connection because of the similarities of graphs, but you need a solid base on which you build an argument.
The one major products of Government and its agencies is that they collect data as any well run business should, simply because if its not measured its not controlled.
Your modification of base data adds clarity and we all thank you for what is obviously a very time consuming task.

I'm not an economist, however the link between capacity utilization and unemployment is well known. I use the basis that at 100% capacity unemployment sits at around 2 -3% (people between jobs,first time job seekers)
When capacity falls 30% true unemployment will track this on a lagging scale.
I would appear that the US future unemployed based on the government data from ALFRED predicts a rise from current 9.5% to 18% (accounting for Government employees who remain fairly consistent throughout cycles)

I doubted your figures on future unemployment when I read them as I am a skeptical person by nature. I no longer do and if a bottoming of capacity utilisation is not evident soon ( it is still tracking down) you may have to revise upward.
Other evidence backs this up,such as the falling Government receipts from taxation (less output less cashflow less tax) and consumer spending
My concern is that every man and his dog are now singing "happy days are here again" when, if the economy was a patient in an Intensive care ward the doctors would be calling for a crash cart in panic due to the vital signs exhibited


So what went so horribly wrong around 1972 Hazard a guess???

FRED
07-19-09, 01:40 PM
Fred,I had a little chuckle as I made the "Name"connection because of the similarities of graphs, but you need a solid base on which you build an argument.
The one major products of Government and its agencies is that they collect data as any well run business should, simply because if its not measured its not controlled.
Your modification of base data adds clarity and we all thank you for what is obviously a very time consuming task.

I'm not an economist, however the link between capacity utilization and unemployment is well known. I use the basis that at 100% capacity unemployment sits at around 2 -3% (people between jobs,first time job seekers)
When capacity falls 30% true unemployment will track this on a lagging scale.
I would appear that the US future unemployed based on the government data from ALFRED predicts a rise from current 9.5% to 18% (accounting for Government employees who remain fairly consistent throughout cycles)

I doubted your figures on future unemployment when I read them as I am a skeptical person by nature. I no longer do and if a bottoming of capacity utilisation is not evident soon ( it is still tracking down) you may have to revise upward.
Other evidence backs this up,such as the falling Government receipts from taxation (less output less cashflow less tax) and consumer spending
My concern is that every man and his dog are now singing "happy days are here again" when, if the economy was a patient in an Intensive care ward the doctors would be calling for a crash cart in panic due to the vital signs exhibited

So what went so horribly wrong around 1972 Hazard a guess???

In order to protect the intellectual property value of the theories we have developed to explain the changes in the US economy since 1971, we can only go into them in detail in the subscriber area.

thunderdownunder
07-22-09, 05:19 AM
Thanks Fred, I was fishing the only way I know
The answer is Nixon and the abandonment of the Brenton woods agreement. Going off the gold standard allowed the The Fed to Rape and debase the US dollar and subsequently because of its position of "exchange currency" it has infected the entire World with Monetary AIDS.
You have proved yourself to erudite and prescient.
Now as for joining, I am not permitted (by deed of trust) to, shall we say stick my head up above the wheat. I thank you for what was, I believe, a covert prod in that direction.
I have no doubt we are on the same page and I would relish the opportunity to debate the in the near future.
Shortly after June 2011 should see you correct on all points - but thats my private view and I have my reasons and I may be wrong. If you have ever witnessed a car accident happen, you will, on reflection, wonder why some see it and act before it happens while others seem to drive on into it. The answer is of course, that survival depends on viewing the road ahead and not the car ahead.
Alec H

History - WW2 - we where "advised" that Singapore would never fall. We were "advised" to place 4 of our assets there in safe haven. All were sunk, Insurance denied as "act of war". Then came the Malaysian nationalization in 1956 and the loss of rubber plantations. It was series of disasters that cost a generation. Since then we take our own advise and we have prospered by taking the road less traveled - much as Itulip does and it is so refreshing to see you are not alone

FRED
07-22-09, 04:48 PM
Thanks Fred, I was fishing the only way I know
The answer is Nixon and the abandonment of the Brenton woods agreement. Going off the gold standard allowed the The Fed to Rape and debase the US dollar and subsequently because of its position of "exchange currency" it has infected the entire World with Monetary AIDS.
You have proved yourself to erudite and prescient.

I am repeating the iTulip position but thank you for the compliment!


Now as for joining, I am not permitted (by deed of trust) to, shall we say stick my head up above the wheat. I thank you for what was, I believe, a covert prod in that direction.

After several recent alien abductions of ideas that took a lot of time and expense to develop, we're tightening up.


I have no doubt we are on the same page and I would relish the opportunity to debate the in the near future.

Shortly after June 2011 should see you correct on all points - but thats my private view and I have my reasons and I may be wrong. If you have ever witnessed a car accident happen, you will, on reflection, wonder why some see it and act before it happens while others seem to drive on into it. The answer is of course, that survival depends on viewing the road ahead and not the car ahead.
Alec H

iTulip has issued one warning after another since 1998:


November 1998: Warns on Internet Bubble (http://www.itulip.com/forums/../knowyourmania.html)
August 1999: No Y2K Disaster (http://www.itulip.com/forums/../y2k.htm)
November 1999: How the Internet Bubble Will End (http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/investing/19991129f.asp?keyword=)
March 2000: Internet Bubble Top (http://www.itulip.com/forums/../GlobeArchiveJanszen.htm)
April 2000: A Bear Market is Born (http://www.itulip.com/forums/../urgentmessage.htm#Bear)
January 2001: Post-Bubble Recession (http://www.itulip.com/forums/../recession2001.htm)
September 2001: Gold Price Bottom at US$270 (http://www.itulip.com/forums/../gold.htm)
August 2002: Warns of Housing Bubble (http://www.itulip.com/forums/../index_old.html#Today)
January 2004: How Housing Bubble will End (http://www.itulip.com/forums/../housingnotlikeequities.htm)
January 2005: Housing Bubble Correction (http://www.itulip.com/forums/../housingbubblecorrection.htm)
June 2005: Housing Bubble Top, crash to follow that leads to severe recession
(http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=606)
October 2006: Severe recession starts Q4 2007
(http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=743)
December 27, 2007: Start of Debt Deflation Bear Market, 40% decline to follow
(http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2774)
June 16, 2008: Top of commercial real estate market, crash to follow
(http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=38410#post38410)
September 15, 2008: Fed Funds spread signals crash (http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=47860#post47860)
March 27, 2009: Debt Deflation Bear Market: First Bounce (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=86995#post86995)

Readers with a well tuned survival instinct are attuned. Those with out one will and have suffered.


History - WW2 - we where "advised" that Singapore would never fall. We were "advised" to place 4 of our assets there in safe haven. All were sunk, Insurance denied as "act of war". Then came the Malaysian nationalization in 1956 and the loss of rubber plantations. It was series of disasters that cost a generation. Since then we take our own advise and we have prospered by taking the road less traveled - much as Itulip does and it is so refreshing to see you are not alone

As the Chinese saying goes: "The crowd is blind."

Finster
07-22-09, 07:21 PM
...

iTulip has issued one warning after another since 1998:


November 1998: Warns on Internet Bubble (http://www.itulip.com/forums/../knowyourmania.html)
August 1999: No Y2K Disaster (http://www.itulip.com/forums/../y2k.htm)
November 1999: How the Internet Bubble Will End (http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/investing/19991129f.asp?keyword=)
March 2000: Internet Bubble Top (http://www.itulip.com/forums/../GlobeArchiveJanszen.htm)
April 2000: A Bear Market is Born (http://www.itulip.com/forums/../urgentmessage.htm#Bear)
January 2001: Post-Bubble Recession (http://www.itulip.com/forums/../recession2001.htm)
September 2001: Gold Price Bottom at US$270 (http://www.itulip.com/forums/../gold.htm)
August 2002: Warns of Housing Bubble (http://www.itulip.com/forums/../index_old.html#Today)
January 2004: How Housing Bubble will End (http://www.itulip.com/forums/../housingnotlikeequities.htm)
January 2005: Housing Bubble Correction (http://www.itulip.com/forums/../housingbubblecorrection.htm)
June 2005: Housing Bubble Top, crash to follow that leads to severe recession
(http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=606)
October 2006: Severe recession starts Q4 2007
(http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=743)
December 27, 2007: Start of Debt Deflation Bear Market, 40% decline to follow
(http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2774)
June 16, 2008: Top of commercial real estate market, crash to follow
(http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=38410#post38410)
September 15, 2008: Fed Funds spread signals crash (http://itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=47860#post47860)
March 27, 2009: Debt Deflation Bear Market: First Bounce (http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php?p=86995#post86995)

Readers with a well tuned survival instinct are attuned. Those with out one will and have suffered.

As the Chinese saying goes: "The crowd is blind."

Wow Fred, this is great ... akin to the iTulip position index some of us have asked for. Maybe we could have something like this in a fixed place for reference, updated appropriately?

FRED
07-22-09, 08:52 PM
Wow Fred, this is great ... akin to the iTulip position index some of us have asked for. Maybe we could have something like this in a fixed place for reference, updated appropriately?

Will put it on the front page, then!